ODIN Fastighet I. Årskommentar 2014

Transkript

1 ODIN Fastighet I Årskommentar 2014

2 2 Fondens portfölj

3 ODIN Fastighet I december 2014 Avkastning senaste månaden och hittills i år Fonden hade en avkastning på 1,8 procent under den senaste månaden. Avkastningen för fondens referensindex under samma tidsperiod var 4,8 procent. Fondens avkastning hittills i år är 16,3 procent. Referensindex avkastning hittills i år är 26,0 procent. Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och hittills i år Vi har inte gjort några större förändringar i portföljen denna månad. I år är de största ändringarna i portföljen köp av aktier i Whilborgs och Castellum samt försäljning av aktier i Kungsleden och Hufvudstaden. Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och hittills i år De bästa bidragsgivarna till denna månads avkastning var bolagen Hemfosa och Wihlborgs De bolag som bidrog minst denna månad var Technopolis och Kløvern. I år har bolagen Wihlborgs och Hamfosa bidragit mest. De svagaste bidragen till avkastningen i portföljen i år är Technopolis och Tribona.

4 ODIN Fastighet I december 2014 Prissättning av fonden Fonden prissätts till 12,0 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat. Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 3,3 procent. Utöver detta tillkommer även återköp av aktier i bolagen. Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts fonden till 1,1 gånger. Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 7,6 procent.

5 ODIN Fastighet I Förvaltarens årskommentar 2014 Ränteförväntingarna minskades betydligt under året. Svenska Riksbankens prognos är nollränta fram till 2016 och även Norges centralbank sänkte överraskande räntan mot slutet av året. Det var en av huvudorsakerna till att den större delen av avkastningen kom från mitten av oktober till årets slut. De tre starkaste bidragen till fondens avkastning under 2014 var samtliga svenska Wihlborgs, Balder och Klövern. Alla tre bidrog med 2,5 % vardera till fondens totala avkastning. På den andra sidan hittar vi Tribona, som bidrog negativt med 0,7 %. Fonden sålde sig under året helt ut ur Tribona. Fortsatt låga räntor skapar förutsättningar för fortsatt goda villkor i fastighetssektorn. Det beror dels på att bolagen får lägre finansieringskostnader, dels på att avkastningskraven på bolagens ägarandelar minskar. Fastigheter blir relativt sett ett mer attraktivt investeringsalternativ jämfört med andra tillgångsslag. ODIN Fastighet I hade vid årsskiftet 17,3 % av portföljen investerad i Finland, medan 17,6 % respektive 59,4 % var investerade i Norge och Sverige (samt 5,7 % kontanter). Vi är av uppfattningen att det finns många fastighetsbolag med hög kvalitet och att en stor andel av dessa finns i Sverige. Vi ser också de makroekonomiska villkoren i Sverige som bättre än i Norge och Finland för tillfället. Vi letar efter följande när vi investerar: 1. Stabil och ökande intjäning per aktie 2. Förnuftig belåning, både i förhållande till intjäning, kassaflöde och fastighetsvärde 3. Förnuftig sammansättning av hyresgäster De ska vara solida Vi föredrar lång löptid på kontrakten, men en del växlingar är också viktigt för marknadsjusteringen av hyresnivåerna 4. En portfölj med fastigheter som inte riskerar att bli stående tomma efter kontraktets utgångstid 5. En ledning som arbetar för att skapa värden genom att utveckla fastigheterna 6. Ett lågt pris på aktien i förhållande till intjäning, kassaflöde och risk ODIN Fastighets tre största investeringar är Wihlborgs, Castellum och Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap. Det är tre bolag som uppfyller dessa krav på ett mycket tillfredsställande sätt och vi tror att de även i fortsättningen kommer att ge god riskjusterad avkastning. Även om ODIN Eiendoms mandat också inkluderar entreprenörer och rena fastighetsutvecklare har vi beslutat att inte investera i sådana, utan enbart fokusera på fastighetsägare. Anledningen till detta är främst att vi uppfattar risken som lägre här samtidigt som prissättningen fortfarande är attraktiv och dagens räntescenario är fördelaktigt.

6 Nyckeltal och nyheter från portföljen - presenterat på engelska

7 Portfolio Return Last 3 years % (EUR) ODIN Eiendom I Historical Return % (EUR)* Index Portfolio Last Month 1,81 YTD 16,25 1 Y 16,25 3 Y 17,32 5 Y 10 Y Since inception 9,95 Benchmark 4,76 26,00 26,00 19,25 12,07 Exess Return -2,96-9,75-9,75-1,93-2,12 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized

8 Annual returns last 10 years

9 Current holdings

10 10 Contribution, year to date

11 Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years Alpha Beta Tracking Error Information Ratio Portfolio 4,76 0,69 6,24-0,39 Index Sharpe Ratio 1) 2,06 1,73 Standard Deviation 2) 10,62 14,02 1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate. 2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility. 11

12 Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB 9,5% Sweden Real Estate Management & 15,9 15,2 3,2 3,3 1,6 10,0 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap 9,4% Norway Real Estate Management & 14,9 13,9 1,2 1,4 1,0 6,6 Castellum AB 9,3% Sweden Real Estate Management & 13,9 13,6 3,7 3,9 1,5 10,7 Sponda Oyj 9,1% Finland Real Estate Management & 11,7 11,7 5,0 5,0 0,7 6,1 Hemfosa Fastigheter AB 4,8% Sweden Real Estate Management & 15,8 12,1 2,9 4,5 1,4 9,2 Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B 4,8% Sweden Real Estate Management & 18,8 17,9 2,8 2,9 1,3 7,0 Fastighets Balder AB Class B 4,8% Sweden Real Estate Management & 18,0 16,0 0,0 0,0 1,4 8,1 Kungsleden AB 4,7% Sweden Real Estate Management & -9,4 12,6 2,2 3,5 1,2-12,5 Dioes Fastigheter AB 4,7% Sweden Real Estate Management & 11,8 10,6 4,7 4,8 1,3 11,0 Hufvudstaden AB Class A 4,7% Sweden Real Estate Management & 25,1 25,6 2,9 3,0 1,3 5,3 Topp 10 65,9% 18,4 13,9 3,0 3,3 1,2 6,4 * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares 12

13 13 MSCI World Price, Earnings and P/E

14 14 MSCI World Price, Book Value and P/B

15 OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area 15

16 16 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast updated October

17 Investments - ODIN Eiendom I

18 Citycon Citycon is a leading shopping center owner based in Finland. The company owns 36 shopping centers and 31 retail properties, mainly in Finland, but also in Estonia and Sweden. Citycon has grown its revenues substantially the last years. However, growth in outstanding shares has also increased significantly. As a consequence, the EPS is now only at the same level as in The online-shopping trend is also negative for the company. On the other hand, Citycon now has a very moderate debt level, enabling the company to utilize further potential growth oppertunities. The main risks we see are a continued difficult economic situation as well as the company s eagerness to grow may be on behalf of returns.pricing of the company is also higher than the average of other Nordic real-estate companies CITYCON OYJ Performance - last 5 years CITYCON OYJ VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 2,58 Price currency EUR Net debt Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 8, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings na 9,0 46,2 9,9 11,6 14,3 13,7 Price/Book Value 0,9 0,9 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 EV/EBIT 18,5 20,9 18,4 na na 17,7 18,0 Return on Equity (%) -4,5 9,9 1,5 8,0 8,1 6,8 6,7 Dividend yield (%) 1,4 1,3 1,7 1,6 1,2 5,9 5,9 18

19 Sponda Sponda owns, leases and develops office, retail and logistics premises in the largest cities in Finland. The company controls around 1.4m square meters, of which the majority is office properties Performance - last 5 years The company is in a process of divesting its Russian assets (around 10% of the company s assets) as well as putting logistics properties in a JV as a first step in a divestment. Instead, the company focuses on increasing its presence in Helsinki and Tampere. Due to heavy issuance of shares, the Sponda s EPS is now substantially lower than in We see the main risk as the company s ability to execute on its stratgy to exit Russia as well as a more focused asset portfolio in Finland. Leverage is somewhat above industy average. The company trades at very low multiples and high dividend yield, implying that the market is not convinced that Sponda will succeed in its transformation SPONDA OYJ SPONDA OYJ VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) 979 Price 3,46 Price currency EUR Net debt Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 8, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings na 8,9 7,5 8,9 10,1 10,7 10,9 Price/Book Value 0,7 0,9 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 EV/EBIT 14,8 18,0 16,1 16,1 16,5 17,5 18,6 Return on Equity (%) -7,7 10,4 9,5 8,4 7,2 6,2 6,6 Dividend yield (%) 4,4 3,9 5,1 4,7 5,3 5,3 5,3 19

20 Technopolis Technopolis is a Finnish based real-estate company focusing on properties with technical infrastructure. Technopolis owns around 550k square meters, of wich 75% is based in Finland, remaining is located in Baltics and Norway Performance - last 5 years Growth has been strong the recent years through acquisitions of properties. However, the company has also issued shares several times to fund the growth, and as a result, EPS growth has been more modest. Leverage is around the sector average. We find pricing of the company attractive given the current low interest rate scenario. However, the economic situation in Finland is challenging, and we are not convinced that all the growth initiatives Technopolis has invested in has been of the shareholders interest TECHNOPOLIS OYJ TECHNOPOLIS OYJ VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) 423 Price 3,97 Price currency EUR Net debt 772 Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 8, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings na 10,7 4,5 10,2 14,5 8,6 8,4 Price/Book Value 0,7 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,8 0,7 0,7 EV/EBIT 13,3 na na 13,2 21,0 17,7 14,5 Return on Equity (%) -2,8 8,3 14,9 7,3 6,1 6,2 8,7 Dividend yield (%) 0,0 4,2 6,0 5,3 2,3 3,8 3,9 20

21 Atrium Ljungberg Atrium Ljungberg has its main focus on office and retail, but also to a larger degree housing properties. The company aims to have big positions in relatively small areas, in order to develop entire sites. In total, Atrium Ljungberg own around 1m square meters, of which half is retail. The company has shown a fairly stable increase in EPS the last 8 years, but was somewhat hurt in 2014 due to payment of a tax settlement. DPS has also grown every year since 2006 (except flat development in 2009). We expect the company to continue grow going forward, driven by increased housing focus and development projects. Atrium Ljungberg has 55& LTV, which is in line with other nordic property companies. Pricing is clearly in the higher end of the peer group, which is in our view not fully warrented ATRIUM LJUN-B SH Performance - last 5 years ATRIUM LJUN-B SH VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 105,30 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 46,7 12,3 10,5 11,0 10,3 18,0 16,8 Price/Book Value 1,0 1,2 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,2 1,2 EV/EBIT 17,9 20,3 18,2 19,6 19,2 20,3 19,4 Return on Equity (%) 2,2 10,5 9,7 10,4 10,4 5,4 7,6 Dividend yield (%) 3,4 2,8 3,5 3,3 3,5 3,0 3,2 21

22 Balder Opposed to most of the other real-estate companies, Balder has more then half of its square meters the residental segment. The company has grown sharply the last years both through the acquisition of Din Bostad, but also organically Balder has is mostly represented in the Stockholm and Gothenburg region, but also has some exposure in Öresund With a leverage of 57% LTV, Balder is in the higher end of the peer group, and taken into consideration tha the company also has a significant amount of outstanding preferance shares, we find risk somewhat higher than the average real-estate company. Pricing is fairly high, but could be justified by the high growth the company has managed to show FASTIGHETS-B SHS Performance - last 5 years FASTIGHETS-B SHS VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 96,00 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 5,7 3,3 4,9 5,7 6,5 16,0 15,6 Price/Book Value 0,4 1,0 0,6 0,9 0,9 1,2 1,1 EV/EBIT 20,3 7,2 8,5 11,6 13,6 18,2 21,9 Return on Equity (%) 9,6 33,6 14,3 15,6 18,1 15,7 8,5 Dividend yield (%) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 na 22

23 Castellum Castellum is one of ODIN Eiendom s biggest positions and also the largest real-estate company in the Nordics, with 3.7m square meters in several regions in Sweden. The property portfolio is diversified also on a segment basis, consisting of a large part of both office and logistic assets. The company has been able to grow both revenues, earnings and dividends very steadily the for many years, through utilizing its large tenant base as well as completing successfull development projects. We find pricing of Castellum very appealing compared to the relatively low risk though both resilliant business model and low leverage CASTELLUM AB Performance - last 5 years CASTELLUM AB VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 111,40 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 74,0 7,6 19,7 10,3 9,6 13,6 12,8 Price/Book Value 1,2 1,4 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,3 EV/EBIT 16,2 18,0 16,9 17,6 17,5 17,9 17,8 Return on Equity (%) 1,6 18,9 6,4 12,7 13,6 8,6 9,8 Dividend yield (%) 4,8 3,9 4,3 4,3 4,2 4,0 4,3 23

24 Diös Fastigheter Diös has the majority of its exposure in the Northern part of Sweden. The company has a very diversified portfolio, consisting of all realestate asset classes. After a large acquisition in late 2011, Diös now own almost 1.5m square meters. Leverage has been reduced, but is still clearly in the higher end of the peer group. Performance - last 5 years DIOS FASTIGHETER VINX Bench EUR NI We find pricing of the company attractive, with a competetive dividend yield. DIOS FASTIGHETER Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 50,25 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 9,1 5,7 6,2 6,1 10,5 9,9 9,0 Price/Book Value 0,8 0,9 0,8 0,8 1,1 1,1 1,1 EV/EBIT 15,5 19,9 34,2 15,5 16,7 16,1 15,7 Return on Equity (%) 9,3 17,2 8,6 14,7 10,2 7,8 11,3 Dividend yield (%) 6,3 4,5 3,9 6,6 5,0 5,3 5,6 24

25 Fabege Fabege offers exposure to the Stockholm region, in particular in Solna, a highly growing area. The company has mainly office assets. What we like about Fabege, is the concentrated property portfolio where the company has a strong market positions in its core areas. The company has leverage in the higher end of the peer group, but net letting is expected to be strong when larger tenants move in around 2016/17. Fabege recently lost a tax case, and has paid a total of SEK 2.1bn in taxes the last 12 months. Pricing of the shares is high, and represent in our view the largest risk with the investment FABEGE AB Performance - last 5 years FABEGE AB VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 94,20 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 17,5 7,6 7,7 na 8,3 25,1 22,3 Price/Book Value 0,7 1,1 0,7 0,9 1,0 1,2 1,1 EV/EBIT 18,7 22,6 21,4 23,3 23,0 25,4 25,5 Return on Equity (%) 4,3 16,0 9,9-0,8 12,8 7,1 5,5 Dividend yield (%) 4,4 3,8 5,6 4,6 3,9 3,3 3,4 25

26 Hemfosa Hemfosa has somewhat more different business model, which is more trasaction oriented. The company owns in total 1.7m square meters, of which mainly office. Hemfosa has a high share of public tenants, with relatively long lease contracts. The company was listed in 2014, so there is more limited history compared to other realestate companies. Leverage is high at 63% LTV, and with a potential issuance of preferance shares, the financial risk is higher than average. Pricing is lower than average, but we find this to be fair given the higher risk m Performance HEMFOSA FASTI VINX Bench EUR NI HEMFOSA FASTI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 121,25 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) na EBIT (operating Income) (mill) na na Net Income (mill) na Price/earnings na na na na na 10,8 10,3 Price/Book Value na na na na na 1,2 1,1 EV/EBIT na na na na na 15,4 15,9 Return on Equity (%) na na 97,7 53,8 10,2 12,5 10,0 Dividend yield (%) na na na na na 3,9 4,9 26

27 Hufvudstaden Hufvudstaden has prime office and retail properties in the central part of Stockholm and Gothenburg. 250 Performance - last 5 years The company differs from most other realestate companies through its low leverage, only around 20% LTV. Pricing of the shares is however high given the high quality of the assets. We do however view growth and stability of earnings and cash-flow more important. Due to limited development projects, we expect Hufvudstaden to have a growth that is lower than most other real-estate peers, hence we find pricing somewhat high at the moment HUFVUDSTADEN -A VINX Bench EUR NI HUFVUDSTADEN -A Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 93,55 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings na 9,3 10,1 8,7 9,5 23,7 22,6 Price/Book Value 1,1 1,4 1,1 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 EV/EBIT 15,4 21,4 18,9 19,8 20,5 22,8 22,0 Return on Equity (%) -3,4 15,9 12,0 14,7 12,9 7,7 5,4 Dividend yield (%) 3,9 2,9 3,5 3,2 3,2 3,1 3,3 27

28 Klövern Klövern has properties in south, east, Stockholm and central/north Sweden. The majority of the company s propery portfolio is warehouse, but office is also a significant portion Performance - last 5 years The company has grown sharply the last few years, and as consequence Klövern has issued prefferance shares on top of an already high leverage. This is in our view the biggest investment-risk. Pricing of the company is somewhat below average, which we find warranted given the high leverage KLOVERN AB VINX Bench EUR NI KLOVERN AB Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 38,00 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 15,5 9,0 8,9 12,0 7,6 11,0 9,9 Price/Book Value 0,9 1,2 0,9 1,1 1,2 0,8 0,8 EV/EBIT 15,8 20,5 17,4 19,3 18,5 21,1 19,7 Return on Equity (%) 5,8 14,0 10,1 4,7 15,6 12,8 9,2 Dividend yield (%) 5,5 4,4 5,8 4,9 5,3 4,3 5,0 28

29 Kungsleden Like Hemfosa, Kungsleden differs from the other real-estate companies by being much more transaction oriented. The company recently raised SEK 1.5bn in new equity to be able to grow in its core ares, as well as pay taxes as Kungslede like Fabege has lost a tax case. The company is also in a process of divesting non-core assets, such as the modular unit. Performance - last 5 years Leverage is fairly high, and is likely to stay so as the equity issue will more or less offset the potential tax payments. KUNGSLEDEN AB KUNGSLEDEN AB VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 45,00 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 27,3 9,9 9,8 na 7,0 10,1 10,6 Price/Book Value 0,9 1,1 0,8 0,6 0,7 1,0 1,0 EV/EBIT 8,6 16,1 14,2 13,5 16,2 11,5 12,8 Return on Equity (%) 3,5 11,7 8,5 4,6 10,7-10,7 5,3 Dividend yield (%) 7,6 3,3 5,7 2,8 2,9 3,0 4,3 29

30 Wallenstam Together with Balder, Wallenstam is more exposed to development in the residental marked. In addition, the company owns windpower assets. Around half the company s 1m square meters are residental. Wallenstam also has a significant operations in devloping residental units. Leverage is in the lower end of the peer group, which we find reasonble given higher risk in the operations. Although we like the outlook, the pricing of the company s shares are very high, an represent the highest investment-risk in our view. Performance - last 5 years WALLENSTAM-B SHS VINX Bench EUR NI WALLENSTAM-B SHS Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 113,30 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 15,4 6,5 14,8 7,0 12,9 35,0 35,9 Price/Book Value 0,9 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,3 1,5 1,5 EV/EBIT 21,7 29,4 30,2 34,9 42,3 35,5 37,2 Return on Equity (%) 5,9 17,2 7,3 17,4 10,3 2,3 4,8 Dividend yield (%) 2,5 2,0 1,9 1,6 2,1 1,8 1,7 30

31 Wihlborgs Wihlborgs is mainly exposed to the Scania region, through mainly office and logistic assets. The company was spun out of Fabege back in Despite difficult macro climate in the region, Wihlborgs has grown considerably the last years, both in terms of revenues, earnings and dividends Performance - last 5 years Leverage is in the higher end of the peer group. We find pricing very attractive given the strong and steady growth the company has been able to show. Wihlborgs is on of ODIN Eiendom s largest positions WIHLBORGS FASTIG VINX Bench EUR NI WIHLBORGS FASTIG Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 127,50 Price currency SEK Net debt Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) 0, E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 9,9 8,1 10,5 9,5 8,3 12,8 12,4 Price/Book Value 1,1 1,4 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,3 EV/EBIT 25,1 28,3 26,0 18,1 18,6 17,1 17,3 Return on Equity (%) 11,6 19,2 12,3 14,0 16,3 6,6 10,6 Dividend yield (%) 5,1 3,6 4,1 3,9 3,7 3,7 3,9 31

32 Entra Entra Eiendom was a publicly held company that was listed in Q3 14, as the government reduced its stake to 50%. Entra has mostly office assets, which again to a large exstent is located in the Oslo region. The company has the longest average leasing terms, and the majoriry of the company s tenants are public companies. Growth has been moderate the last years, but expected to improve going forward due to project completions. ENTRA ASA Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 74,50 Price currency NOK Net debt Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 23,6 19,9 Price/Book Value 1,3 1,2 EV/EBIT 21,7 19,5 Return on Equity (%) 5,5 6,1 Dividend yield (%) Gearing is fairly low, and pricing is in the upper end, which is in our view not warrented given somewhat limited history as a listed company. 32

33 Norwegian Property Norwegian Property is a Oslo based property company, mainly exposed to office assets, but the company also has some retail-exposure. 250 Performance - last 5 years The company had a challenging start, with to high leverage combined with a major acquisition of hotel-company Norgani as well as a difficult market around As a result, the company has made several rights issues in addition to divesting Norgani to be able to reduce leverage. Lately, the company has been working with big refurbishment projects in its main area, Aker Brygge, which temporarily has increased vacancy in the portfolio. The main risks as we see it is completion of development projects as well as getting new tenants in place NORWEGIAN PROP NORWEGIAN PROP VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 10,30 Price currency NOK Net debt Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings na 14,4 19,3 na na 34,1 23,4 Price/Book Value 1,2 1,0 0,7 0,9 0,8 1,1 1,0 EV/EBIT 17,1 17,2 15,5 16,9 21,2 22,5 20,5 Return on Equity (%) -23,6-9,3 3,8-2,4-4,4 5,1 4,8 Dividend yield (%) 0,0 0,0 2,7 2,4 0,0 0,5 1,5 33

34 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Olav Thon is the leading shoppingcenter owner in Norway. The company owns or operates most of the largest shopping centers in Norwat, and has also expanded to Sweden recently. Although shopping from internet represent a challenging trend, we find the quality of the assets as well as the company s strong operating performance very supporting for further growth. Olav Thon has a rather low leverage, enablig the company to take advantage of oppertunities to grow furter. Pricing of the company is low, despite strong track-record and good prospects. We therefore have Olav Thon as one of our core positions OLAV THON EIENDO Performance - last 5 years OLAV THON EIENDO VINX Bench EUR NI Real Estate Operating Companie Market Value (mill) Price 120,50 Price currency NOK Net debt Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill) FX rate (NOK) E 2015E -4FY -3FY -2FY -1FY 0FY 1FY 2FY Sales (mill) EBIT (operating Income) (mill) Net Income (mill) Price/earnings 14,8 7,3 11,6 8,5 6,9 14,0 13,5 Price/Book Value 1,0 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,9 1,0 0,9 EV/EBIT 15,3 15,7 13,0 12,5 14,7 15,4 14,5 Return on Equity (%) 7,1 15,0 7,4 10,5 13,6 6,1 6,8 Dividend yield (%) 0,0 0,0 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,2 1,3 34

35 Investment Objective Long term value creation We prefer performing companies, with strong long term prospects, available at favourable prices

36 Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price Performance Operating excellence «Doing good business with bad people simply doesn t work» Warren E. Buffet Prospects Strong competitive position «We don t focus at beating the market short term. We want our holdings to beat their competitors long term» Börje Ekholm Price Favourable valuation «The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of a nice price is forgotten» Unknown

37 Om ODIN Eiendom I (Fastighet I) ODIN Fastighet I är en aktivt förvaltad aktiefond som investerar i bolag som är börsnoterade eller har sitt huvudkontor eller ursprung i något av de nordiska länderna och vars huvudsakliga verksamhet är relaterad till fast egendom. Fonden överför mottagen utdelning till fondens andelsägare. Utdelningen ges den 15 juni. Fondens långsiktiga mål är att ge högre avkastning än aktiemarknaden för börsnoterade fastighetsbolag, mätt i fondens referensindex. Fakta om fonden Startår Referensindex Carnegie Sweden Real Estate Basvaluta NOK Förvaltningsavgift 2 % Tecknings-/inlösenavgift 0 % Minsta teckningsbelopp 500 EUR 37

38 Om förvaltaren Fondens ansvariga förvaltare Thomas Nielsen började arbeta hos ODIN i augusti 2013 och han har förvaltat fonderna ODIN Fastighet och ODIN Fastighet I sedan 11 augusti Han är civilekonom och har en master i Financial Economics. Han har god kunskap om fastighetsaktier i de norska och nordiska aktiemarknaderna och har tidigare varit aktieanalytiker på Fondsfinans, Kaupthing och Pareto. 38

39 Logga in på ODIN Online Klicka här Teckna andelar Klicka här Kundservice Beställ ODINs nyhetsbrev Klicka här 39

40 Vi påminner om att Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen, förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för köp och förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om aktiekurserna faller. Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta eller fullständiga. Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard. Mer information finns på 40

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