ODIN Maritim. Årskommentar 2014

Transkript

1 ODIN Maritim Årskommentar 2014

2 Fondens portfölj

3 ODIN Maritim december 2014 Avkastning senaste månaden och hittills i år Fonden hade en avkastning på 2,0 procent den senaste månaden. Avkastningen för fondens referensindex under samma tidsperiod var 0,1 procent. Fondens avkastning hittills i år är -18,6 procent. Referensindex avkastning hittills i år är 5,3 procent. Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och hittills i år Den senaste månaden har vi minskat våra innehav i tank bolagen DHT och Tanker Investments efter goda kursuppgångar och vi har utnyttjat kursfallet i Navigator Holdings till att öka vår exponering. I år är de största förändringarna i portföljen köp av Maersk och Aurora LPG och vi har sålt Neptun Orient Lines och gjort gradvis minskat i torrlastbolag. Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och hittills i år De bästa bidragsgivarna till denna månads avkastning var Tanker Investements, DHT och Navios Maritime Aquisition. De bolag som bidrog minst denna månad var Awilco LNG, Golden Ocean och Pacific Basin. I år har bolagen Tanker Investements, Hurtigruten och DHT Holdings bidragit mest. De svagaste bidragen till avkastningen i portföljen i år är DS Norden, Western Bulk och Golden Ocean.

4 ODIN Maritim december 2014 Prissättning av fonden Fonden prissätts till 11,3 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat. Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 2,6 procent. Utöver detta tillkommer även återköp av aktier i bolagen. Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts fonden till 0,8. Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 1,6 procent. Prissättning av den aktiemarknaden för shipping - MSCI World Gross Marine Index MSCI World Marine prissätts till 10,5 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat. MSCI World Marine ger en direktavkastning på 2,9 procent. Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts MSCI World Marine till 1,1 gånger. Bolagen i MSCI World Marine har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 9,2 procent.

5 ODIN Maritim Förvaltarens årskommentar 2014 Mer om fondens avkastning Det senaste året har ODIN Maritim visat en betydlig mindreavkastning jämfört med fondens referensindex MSCI World Marine. Referensindex är ett smalt index som endast består av fyra bolag två japanska shipping-konglomerat med störst exponering mot container, ett tyskt logistikbolag och Maersk. AP Møller Maersk, världens största containerrederi, utgör hela 59 % av referensindex och således blir indexet i stor grad beroende av AP Møller Maersks kursutveckling. Som norsk värdepappersfond kan ODIM Maritims ägarandel i ett bolag aldrig överstiga 10 % och därför kommer vi per definition alltid vara extremt underviktade vad gäller AP Møller. Det senaste året har aktiekurserna för de flesta rederier stigit kraftigt för att därefter falla tillbaka, men AP Møller Maersk har ökat med cirka 5 % i lokal valuta. I övrigt har norska marinindexet minskat med cirka 28 %. Det senaste året har ODIN Maritim visat en betydlig mindreavkastning jämfört med fondens referensindex MSCI World Marine. År 2014 präglades av volatilitet i kurserna och ökad osäkerhet 2014 inleddes med en hög grad av optimism och förväntningar om ytterligare rateuppgångar. Många rederier värderades högre än de underliggande fartygsvärdena baserat på förväntningar om fortsatt stigande värden. Stor kapitaltillgång från nya aktörer, som private equityfonder, bidrog starkt till optimismen genom finansiering av nya projektbolag och beställningar av nybyggnationer. Året har dessvärre inte utvecklats som förväntat med dålig rateutveckling och fallande fartygsvärden, i synnerhet inom torrlastsegmentet. Den makroekonomiska osäkerheten med Kina i spetsen har bidragit till ytterligare minskat förtroende och fallande aktiekurser. Under senhösten medförde det kraftigt fallande oljepriset nedgång i de asiatiska gaspriserna och ökad osäkerhet om den framtida rateutvecklingen inom gassegmentet. Gasbolagen hade fram till dess varit sektorns vinnare, men föll kraftigt i takt med oljepriset. Ljuspunkten vid årets slut är tanksegmentet med historiskt höga rater för i synnerhet råoljetankfartyg. Bristande förtroende för shippingsektorn generellt begränsar dock tankrederiernas kursuppgång. Till skillnad från vid årets inledning präglas shipping-bolagens aktiekurser nu i liten grad av förväntningar och handlas generellt till rabatt, ibland stor rabatt, jämfört med de underliggande värdena. 5

6 ODIN Maritim Lägre oljepris positivt för kostnadsutvecklingen I takt med det fallande oljepriset minskas också bunkerpriset (rederiernas drivmedel) vilket ger lägre driftskostnader. Generellt gäller att ju större fartyg, desto större besparing. Därför ger besparingarna störst positiv effekt för de stora råoljetank- och containerfartygen. De senaste åren har varit präglade av höga oljepriser och överkapacitet av fartyg inom flera segment. Redarna har till följd av detta färdats med reducerad hastighet för att minska kostnaderna och förbättra flottans utnyttjandegrad. Lägre bunkerpris ökar incitamentet till högre fart och motverkar alltså potentiellt något av effekterna av det lägre drivmedelspriset. Dåliga tider inom torrlast påverkar också driftskostnaderna positivt i form av lägre förbrukning och mindre press på personalkostnaderna. Till följd av mindre intresse och entusiasm för shipping-segmentet har beställningarna av nybyggnationer minskat kraftigt och i en del segment, till exempel torrlast, helt upphört. Skrapning av äldre tonnage ökar däremot och kommer på sikt att förbättra marknadsbalansen. Ratefest inom råolja och produkttank Raterna för råolje- och produkttankfartyg har ryckt upp sig under de senaste månaderna. Den kinesiska råoljeimporten är rekordhög, antagligen delvis på grund av en strategisk lageruppbyggnad. Lättolja som tidigare gick till USA transporteras nu till Asien, en betydligt längre transportsträcka vilket ökar fartygsefterfrågan. Produkttankmarknaden stärks av säsongsmässiga orsaker, men även på grund av ökad raffinaderikapacitet i Asien och Mellanöstern och påföljande ökad export av raffinerade produkter. Raterna för båda fartygstyperna förväntas stiga ytterligare under vintern. Fallande oljepriser är positivt både till följd av fallande bunkerpriser och förhoppningsvis ökad efterfrågan av strategisk karaktär. Marknaden för råoljetank- och större produkttankfartyg ser gynnsam ut även för de kommande åren eftersom flottillväxten är mycket liten jämfört med den förväntade efterfrågan. För mindre produkttankfartyg är däremot orderboken något i överkant stor. ODIN Maritim är exponerade mot tankmarknaden genom investeringar i Tanker Investments, DHT, Frontline 2012, Euronav och Navios Maritime Aqusition. Dåligt år för torrlastrederierna 2014 har varit ett mycket dåligt och svagt år för torrlastredarna. Vid årets början var optimismen hög vilket reflekterades i de flesta börsnoterade operatörernas flottpositioner. Exportrestriktioner på mineraler och metaller från Indonesien, kombinerat med lägre kolimportvolymer till Kina har begränsat tonnageefterfrågan och raterna för i synnerhet mindre bulkfartyg. Järnmalmsimporten till Kina har varit stark stora delar av året, men raterna dåliga på grund av färdvägarna. Volymerna har gått huvudsakligen från Australien, betydligt kortare än från Brasilien

7 ODIN Maritim På längre sikt har osäkerheten kring den kinesiska BNP-tillväxten, fokusglidningen från investeringar till konsumtion och kampen mot föroreningarna skapat betydande osäkerhet angående framtidens tonnageefterfrågan, rater och fartygsvärden. Torrlastaktierna har minskat dramatiskt under året. Till exempel har Capital Links amerikanska torrlastaktieindex minskat med mer än 40 %. Vi är skeptiska till LPG-rederierna på grund av en stor orderbok av nybyggnationer, men känner oss mer optimistiska till terminal - bolagen. Där är de potentiella marginalerna och inträdeshindren betydligt högre. Vi anser också att det är vettigare att titta på framtidspriserna på olja och gas, än att basera värderingen på nuvarande spotpriser. Oljeprisfallet präglar gasrederierna LPG-gasaktier har varit vinnare under stora delar av 2014 men oljeprisfallet i slutet av året har vänt den trenden. På aktiemarknaden råder oro för att potentiellt minskad amerikansk gasexport ska sammanfalla med leveransen av ett stort antal nya fartyg. LNG-marknaden har varit svag under 2014, men förväntas rycka upp sig vid starten av nya exportterminaler i USA från och med Volymerna är tänkta till Asien, där gaspriserna i stor grad är kopplade till oljepriset. Det kraftiga oljeprisfallet har därför påverkat gaspriserna i Asien negativt, vilket ökar osäkerheten angående lönsamheten i exportprojekt och framtida volymer. Även bolag som äger och projekterar flytande export- och importgasterminaler, som Høegh LNG och Golar LNG, har minskat kraftigt av samma orsaker. 7

8 Nyckeltal och nyheter från portföljen presenteras på engelska

9 Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (EUR) ODIN Maritim Historical Return % (EUR)* Index Portfolio Last Month 2,03 YTD -18,65 1 Y -18,65 3 Y 4,00 5 Y -1,35 10 Y 2,20 Since inception 10,32 Benchmark 0,09 5,34 5,34 12,45 8,31 3,50 2,81 Exess Return 1,94-23,98-23,98-8,45-9,66-1,30 7,51 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized

10 Annual returns last 10 years

11 11 Current holdings

12 12 Contribution, year to date

13 Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years Alpha Beta Tracking Error Information Ratio Portfolio -3,49 0,70 10,93-0,86 Index Sharpe Ratio 1) 0,55 1,15 Standard Deviation 2) 14,47 15,00 1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate. 2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility. 13

14 Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE Tanker Investments Ltd. 9,6% Norway Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 177,7 8,9 0,0 0,0 1,1 0,6 DHT Holdings, Inc. 8,0% United States Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels -66,9 21,1 1,1 1,1 1,0-1,5 Frontline 2012 Ltd. 7,7% Norway Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 17,5 12,9 2,4 3,8 1,1 6,0 Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd. 5,0% Norway Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels -23,0 18,7 0,0 1,4 1,8-7,8 Navios Maritime Acquisition 4,8% United States Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 45,7 10,1 5,5 5,5 1,1 2,5 Stolt-Nielsen Limited 4,8% Norway Marine 14,0 8,3 6,0 6,0 0,6 4,4 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA 4,6% Norway Marine 6,8 5,0 3,6 3,9 0,6 8,4 A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Class 4,6% Denmark Marine 10,3 9,2 2,7 3,0 1,0 9,9 Navigator Holdings Ltd. 4,5% United States Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 13,5 9,9 0,0 0,0 1,4 10,7 Odfjell SE Class B 3,8% Norway Marine -4,6 64,4 0,0 0,0 0,5-9,9 Topp 10 57,5% 46,4 10,8 1,9 2,3 0,9 2,0 ODIN Maritim 50,0 11,2 2,6 2,7 0,8 1,7 * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares 14

15 15 MSCI World Price, Earnings and P/E

16 16 MSCI World Price, Book Value and P/B

17 OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area 17

18 18 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast updated October

19 Investments - ODIN Maritim

20 A.P Möller - Maersk The Maersk Group has five core businesses which include Maersk Line, APM Terminals, Maersk Oil, Maersk Drilling and APM Shipping Services. The last business area is comprised of Maersk Supply Service, Maersk Tankers, Damco and Svitzer Performance - last 5 years Maersk has an impressive track record compared to peers in terms of earnings and return on capital. Cost cutting and streamlining operations has mitigated industry overcapacity and expanded margins. Few if any competitors on the liner side is profitable, preventing further pressure on day rates. Strong and growing volumes are beneficial for Maersk beeing the biggest liner company in the world. Faling oil prices are hurting the E&P division, but decreasing bunker costs in the liner division, on a group basis fairly hedged. Maersk is currently trading at a discount to sum of the parts. The strategy over time is to reduce number of divisions and decrease the conglomerate discount. Generating free cash flow and returning cash to shareholders via dividends and share buy backs des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Maersk A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Class B MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 270,989 Price Price currency DKK Net debt (mill.) 65,887 Reporting currency DKK Enterprise Value (mill.) 336,876 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 260, , , , , , ,374 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 21,713 59,563 48,309 39,697 36,889 45,921 48,805 Net Income (mill.) -7,027 26,452 15,111 21,657 18,089 35,446 29,921 Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

21 Aurora LPG Aurora owns and operates a fleet of modern VLGC vessels and has a VLGC new-building program at Hyundai Heavy Industries. Aurora is a pure play on larger gass(lpg) vessels with a fleet of 3 vessels on the water and 4 under construction. The booming production of gas from shales and rapid expansion of export terminals in the US is boosting demand for LPG transport. Aurora has a opportunistic strategy both on operations and corporate structure. Achieved day rates have by far outperformed peers. The company has outsourced its technical and commercial operations to third party partners at competitive market terms, which in turn gives the company a low and flexible cost structure. The flexible business model, open shareholder structure and opportunistic management make Aurora an obvious M&A candidate Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Aurora LPG Holding ASA Aurora LPG Holding ASA MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Market Value (mill.) 1,573 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

22 Awilco LNG Awilco LNG is a LNG transportation provider, owning and operating LNG vessels. The Company owns two 156,000 cbm TFDE membrane LNG vessels; WilForce and WilPride, and three 125,000 cbm steam Moss type LNG vessels; WilGas, WilPower and WilEnergy. The LNG transportation market is looking challenging in the short term due to oversupply of vessels and delayed start up of new liquefaction plants. However, huge export volumes from the US on steam from 2016 is estimated to firm up the market. Awilco has a strong balance sheet, no further capex and low day rate break even to weather the storm into a firmer market. The company`s shares are attractively priced on implied vessel values compared to peers and current newbuilding prices Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Awilco LNG ASA Awilco LNG ASA MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 729 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 1,758 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 2,487 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

23 D/S Norden A/S Dampskibsselskabet NORDEN A/S is a shipping company operating in dry cargo and product tankers worldwide. Norden operates a fleet of owned an charter in dry cargo and product tankers. The company has a long and solid track record, however in the short term the mgt have taken a wrong bet on the dry bulk market. With the flexible business model Norden has the ability to adjust its fleet size to changing market conditions and invest counter cyclical. Norden has a strong balance sheet and a fairly conservative approach. Historically good return on capital and focus on shareholder return. The Norden shares are trading at a substantial discount to net asset values Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 D/S Norden A/S D/S Norden A/S MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 5,731 Price Price currency DKK Net debt (mill.) -1,234 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 4,497 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 1,676 2,190 2,273 2,131 2,146 1,881 1,826 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

24 DHT Holdings DHT is a crude oil tanker company. The fleet trades globally and consists of crude oil tankers in the VLCC, Aframax and Suezmax segments. The company has all functions inhouse and operate through integrated management companies in Oslo, Norway and Singapore. DHT has grown its tanker fleet through a series of transactions involving vessels on the water and ordering of newbuilds. The tanker market looks exciting the next few years, ton miles demand is increasing and the fleet is decreasing. DHT trades at a discount to net asset values in spite of day rates spiking and tanker values on the rise Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 DHT Holdings, Inc. DHT Holdings, Inc. MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 713 Price 7.71 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 30 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 743 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

25 DOF DOF owns and operates a fleet of modern offshore support vessels(osv) on a global basis. Major part of operations is in the North Sea and Latin America(Brazil) The major part of the PSV and AHTS fleet is fixed on term contracts, the CSV fleet is controlled and operated by the subsidiary DOF Subsea. DOF is highly leveraged and has 8 newbuild under construction( all fixed on long term contacts). The company has been expanding it fleet aggressively over time, going forward the focus will shift to execution and deleverage. Due to its high leverage DOF is trading at a substantial discount to net asset values Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 DOF ASA DOF ASA PHLX Oil Service Index TR Oilfield Services/Equipment Market Value (mill.) 1,377 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 21,921 Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) 23,298 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 4,259 5,403 6,503 8,136 9,754 10,196 10,112 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) ,124 1,680 1,909 2,384 2,250 Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

26 Euronav NV Euronav is a crude oil tanker company. The fleet trades globally and consists of crude oil tankers in the VLCC and Suezmax segments. The company has all functions in-house and operates its fleet both on the spot and the period market. Most of Euronav's VLCCs are operated in the Tankers International pool. The majority of its Suezmax fleet is fixed on long-term charter. The company has opportunisticly grown its tanker fleet through a series of transactions of vessels on the water, the biggest beeing aquisition of the Maersk VLCC fleet. Euronav is in the process of beeing listed on the NYSE, becoming the largest tanker company listed in the US. The tanker market looks exciting the next few years, ton miles demand is increasing and the fleet is decreasing. Euronav is a leveraged play on booming day rates and rising tanker values Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Euronav NV Euronav NV MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 1,260 Price Price currency EUR Net debt (mill.) 768 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 2,029 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

27 Frontline 2012 Frontline 2012 is a Fredriksen controlled shipping investment company invested in crude, product and dry cargo carriers with an opportunistic approach focusing on shareholder return and M&A. FRNT has sold all its gas and dry bulk newbuilding contracts to Avance Gas and Knightsbridge Tankers for settlement in cash and shares. Remaining vessels and newbuilding are all in the tanker space, ideally suited for a merger with the old Frontline becoming one of the major global crude tanker players. Cirka 80% of FRNT`s assets are exposed to crude transportation, a market looking exciting the next few years - ton miles demand is increasing and the fleet is decreasing. FRNT trades at a discount to net asset values in spite of day rates spiking and tanker values on the rise. Historically Fredriksens companies trades at premiums to nav due track record of creating shareholder value Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Frontline 2012 Ltd. Frontline 2012 Ltd. MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 10,089 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 1,485 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 11,573 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

28 Golar LNG Golar LNG Limited is a midstream liquefied natural gas (LNG) company, engaged in the transportation, regasification and liquefaction, and trading of LNG. The company operates in two segments, Vessel Operations and Commodity Trading. It is involved in the acquisition, ownership, operation, and chartering of LNG carriers and floating storage regasification units (FSRU); and the development of LNG projects. Golar is in the process of transforming from an LNG shipping company to a midstream player with FLNG focus. The company is currently converting two vessels to FLNG units offering the lowest cost of liquefaction in the industry. Compared to land based plants FLNG units are by far cheaper and more flexible. The first FLNG project is due to start up 1H 17 and have head of agreement with Perenco/SNH in Cameroon based on a tolling fee Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Golar LNG Limited Golar LNG Limited MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 3,331 Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 568 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 3,899 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Based on vessel market values on Golars existing fleet of LNG carriers and FRSUs very limited value is discounted on FLNG units.

29 Golden Ocean Performance - last 5 years Golden Ocean Group Ltd. (GOGL) is a leading international dry bulk shipping company based in Bermuda, mainly operating in the Capesize and Panamax market segments GOGL is in the process of merging with Knightbridge to become of the largest drybulk player on a global basis. The dry cargo market is challenging on back of weak transport demand growth, for especially coal, and increasing uncertainty regarding chinese GDP growth. Golden Ocean is controlled by Mr Fredriksen and is, as all of his companies, focusing on shareholder return and opportunistic M&A. The company has a strong balance sheet compared to many peers and a supportive major shareholder, leaving GOGL in a good position to exploit opportunities in weaker markets where competitors struggle des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Golden Ocean Group Limited Golden Ocean Group Limited MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 2,198 Price 4.91 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 2,447 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 4,645 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

30 Höegh LNG Holdings Höegh LNG Holdings provides energy solutions and operates world-wide with a leading position as owner and operator of floating LNG import terminals; Floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). Hoegh floating terminal projects are based on newbuildings and fixed on long term contracts. After commencing operation and thereby having de-risked the asset, they are sold to the MLP subsidary Höegh LNG Partners LP in order to recycle capital to further grow the company. In addition the company has developed a lowcost solution for floating liquefaction terminals (FLNG). Hoegh is currently negotiating it first project based on a feed study with an american company. Hoegh is experiencing increasing demand for FSRUs based on lower gas prices spurring demand in emerging countries without import terminals. The company will start paying dividend from 2015, expected to grow with new projects commencing operations Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd. Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd. MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 5,924 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 2,947 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 8,871 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

31 I.M. Skaugen I.M. Skaugen SE is a Marine Transportation Service Company, with a focus on Innovative Maritime Solutions. The core business activity is to provide logistics solutions for seaborne regional distribution of liquefied gasses such as LNG, petrochemical gases and LPG. IM Skaugen is operating a fleet of smaller gas and multi gas carriers employed mainly in the global spot market. This has been a challenging market with low dayrates and utilisation the last few years, resulting in low cash flow generation. The company is financed partly by high yield bonds, the first due in The share price have taken a serious beating due to the percieved default risk. IM Skaugen has adressed the bond issue by selling a chinese subsidiary and vessels, in addition to buy backs of bonds in the market. The company is negotiating long term contracts for it multi gas carriers with Asian powerplants looking to replace diesel with gas as input for power generaton Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 I.M. Skaugen SE I.M. Skaugen SE MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 127 Price 4.68 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 671 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 798 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

32 Knightbridge Shipping Limited Knighbridge (VLCCF) is a leading international dry bulk shipping company based in Bermuda, mainly operating in the Capesize market segment. Knightbridge is in the process of merging with Golden Ocean to become one of the largest drybulk player on a global basis. The dry cargo market is challenging on back of weak transport demand growth, for especially coal, and increasing uncertainty regarding chinese GDP growth. Golden Ocean is controlled by Mr Fredriksen and is, as all of his companies, focusing on shareholder return and opportunistic M&A. The company has a strong balance sheet compared to many peers and a supportive major shareholder, leaving the merged company in a good position to exploit opportunities in weaker markets where competitors struggle des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Knightsbridge Shipping Limited Knightsbridge Shipping Limited Performance - last 5 years MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 342 Price 4.27 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -3 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 339 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

33 Navigator Holdings Navigator Holdings is the leading owner and operator of the world s largest fleet of handysize liquefied gas carriers. The company provides international seaborne transportation and regional distribution services of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemical gases and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users and commodity traders. Navigators fleet is very flexible in terms of trading routes and cargo, ideally positioned to profit from increasing US LPG exports and arbitrage trading of petrochemical products. Segment dayrates are improving increasing Navigator s return. Compared to larger vessels operating on long haul trades, handy size dayrates are less volatile and cash flows more stable. The orderbook of newbuildings are additionally much lower than in the bigger segment. Navigator recently secured five - ten year timecharters on two newbuildings guided by mgt at unlevered return just below midteens indicating good returns on invested capital Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Navigator Holdings Ltd. Navigator Holdings Ltd. MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 1,117 Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 381 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 1,498 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

34 Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp. Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation is an owner and operator of tanker vessels focusing in the transportation of petroleum products and bulk liquid chemicals. The company owns a large fleet of modern crude oil, refined petroleum product and chemical tankers providing world-wide marine transportation services. Navios` strategy is to charter our vessels to international oil companies, refiners and large vessel operators under long, medium and short-term charters, mostly on fixed terms including profit splits. The chartering strategy is securing long term predictable cashflow underpinning the company s dividend strategy of returning cash to shareholders quaterly. Navios has increased its exposure to the large crude tanker market by acquiring several vessels at attractive prices the last year Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 570 Price 3.76 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 1,047 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 1,617 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

35 Odfjell Odfjell is a leading company in the global market for transportation and storage of bulk liquid chemicals, acids, edible oils and other special products.. Odfjell owns and operates chemical tankers and LPG/Ethylene carriers in global and regional trades as well as a joint venture network of tank terminals. The market for transportation of chemicals is looking promising short term on the back of ton miles increasing a consequence of new refineries starting in the Middle East and the US shale boom. Longer term outlook is more uncertain due to a high orderbook of newbuilds, mostly controlled by unexperienced shipping companies and private equity players. The terminal division is generating steady cash flow, while the chemical fleet is more volatile operating on short term and spot contracts. Odfjell is currently evaluating its strategy and has recently changed CEO. The company is generating low return on capital and is fairly high leveraged. The terminal and gas division is partly owned by private equity partners making it a M&A candidate Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Odfjell SE Class B Odfjell SE Class B MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 2,616 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 7,183 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 9,799 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 1,264 1,239 1,154 1,212 1,165 1,018 1,047 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

36 Pacific Basin Shipping Limited Pacific Basin is a leading owner and operator of modern Handysize and Handymax dry bulk ships globally. Pacific has an industrial approach, using its own fleet in addition to chartered in vessels to serve it end user clients. The company is transporting minor bulk products like cement, ferrtilizers and timber. Pacific has historically acheived a substantial premium dayrate versus the observed market benchmarks. Its buisness model has over time generated significant higher returns than peers. With the flexible business model Pacific has the ability to adjust its fleet size to changing market conditions and invest counter cyclical. However in the short term the mgt have taken a wrong bet on the dry bulk market, being long chartered in tonnage. Pacific is in addition operating a fleet of tug and towage vessels in Asia. This division is in the proces of being sold, leaving Pacif a pure play on modern smaller size dty bulk Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Pacific Basin Shipping Limited Pacific Basin Shipping Limited MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 6,295 Price 3.25 Price currency HKD Net debt (mill.) 4,666 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 10,961 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 950 1,269 1,343 1,443 1,709 1,787 1,977 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

37 Scorpio Tankers Scorpio Tankers owns and operate a fleet of modern product tankers - used to distribute and trade vegetable oils, petroleum based feedstocks, and refining outputs such as gasoline, diesel, jet, and naphtha. Scorpio Tankers has an opportunistic strategy with the aim of generating shareholder value by building a fleet of modern product tankers through newbuilds. Mgt ordered huge series of vessels at historically low yard prices including crude tankers and LPG gas carriers. Subsequently the crude tanker newbuilding contracts have been sold at a profit and the gas carriers have been exchanged for Dorian shares. The product tanker fleet are mostly on the water generating cash flow in a strong market benefitting from booming demand on back of increased ton miles. Scorpio is outperforming the market, benefitting from modern vessels being more fuel efficient. The company is returning cash to shareholders by dividends and share buy backs Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Scorpio Tankers Inc. Scorpio Tankers Inc. MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 1,397 Price 8.54 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 88 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 1,485 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

38 Siem Shipping Siem Shipping is operating in the specialised reefer industry as STAR Reefers, a leading global owner and operator of refrigerated vessels providing modern tonnage for a highquality, flexible and cost-effective service. The Company is focused on the banana segment. Siem shipping is operating in a challenging market competing with the liner companies offering reefer containers. The fleet is operating on term contracts generating positive cash flow. The shares are trading at less than half the book value and the company is buying back it own shares. The company is controlled by the Siem group and is very thinly traded. The board of directors is evaluating the company strategy, options being evaluted are ie broaden the activity to other shipping segments or going private Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Siem Shipping Inc. Siem Shipping Inc. MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 555 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 254 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 809 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

39 Solstad Offshore Solstad Offshore is a leading supply shipping company focusing on large and advanced offshore supply vessels. Majority of the fleet is operating in the North Sea and Latin America. Solstads strategy is focused on segments with advanced vessels and high barriers to entry. Subsea construction vessels are operated on long term contracts to the subsea development companies, while anchor handling tugs are more opportunistically operated in the spot market. Financial focus is shifting to cash flow generation and deleveraging after a rapid fleet expansion period. Only one new build is currently under construction. The Solstad shares are trading at a substantial discount to NAV and book values, in spite of solid dividends and buy back of own shares Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Solstad Offshore ASA Solstad Offshore ASA PHLX Oil Service Index TR Oilfield Services/Equipment Market Value (mill.) 2,515 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 8,182 Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) 10,697 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 2,519 2,614 3,044 3,288 3,495 3,755 3,675 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) ,004 1,283 1,223 Net Income (mill.) 1, Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

40 Stolt-Nielsen Stolt-Nielsen Limited is a leading global provider of bulk-liquid transportation, storage and distribution services through its three largest operating units: Stolt Tankers, Stolthaven Terminals and Stolt Tank Containers Performance - last 5 years The market for transportation of chemicals is looking promising short term on the back of ton miles increasing a consequence of new refineries starting in the Middle East and the US shale boom. Longer term outlook is more uncertain due to a high orderbook of newbuilds, mostly controlled by unexperienced shipping companies and private equity players. The terminal and tank containe divisions are generating steady cash flow, while the chemical fleet is more on rolling one year contracts. Stolt has a solid balance sheet, leading strategic positions, long term track record and prudent mgt in addition to returning capital to shareholders by dividends and share buy backs des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Stolt-Nielsen Limited Stolt-Nielsen Limited MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 7,985 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 10,048 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 18,032 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 1,645 1,794 2,029 2,072 2,100 2,156 2,277 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

41 Tanker Investments Tanker Investment(TIL) is a crude oil tanker company. The fleet trades globally and consists of crude oil tankers in the Aframax and Suezmax segments. The company is a subsidiary of Teekay and operates the fleet in the Teekay Tanker pools. TIL has grown its tanker fleet through a series of transactions aquiring vessels on the water and upgrade them with eco features. The company has an asset play approach, looking to sell the company or the fleet into a expected stronger market. The tanker market looks exciting the next few years, ton miles demand is increasing and the fleet is decreasing. TIL trades at a discount to net asset values in spite of day rates spiking, tanker values rising and buying back own stock Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Tanker Investments Ltd. Tanker Investments Ltd. MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Market Value (mill.) 3,315 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 981 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 4,295 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

42 TTS Group TTS is an engineering company designing and manufacturing marine and offshore equipment. TTS sold its drilling equipment division to Cameron at a huge profit and returned the bigger part of the profit to shareholders. Subsequently remaining part of the group has struggled with challenging markets and poor operational performance. Mgt has been changed and the company has been through a restructuring and downsizing, reducing operational cost by 150 mil. The biggest shareholder Mr Skeie and mgt have increased their shareholding the last months, showing increased confidence in the turnaround. TTS has a opportunistic approach, divisions or the group are likely to take part of future M&A activity Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 TTS Group ASA TTS Group ASA MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 411 Price 4.75 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 78 Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) 489 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 3,784 3,226 3,524 2,346 2,693 2,270 2,500 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

43 Western Bulk Western Bulk ASA is a global operator of dry bulk vessels and the World s third largest operator of Supramax vessels. The company`s business model is different from traditional dry bulk companies combining shipping experience with an assetlight trading-oriented approach Performance - last 5 years Western strategy is two folded, using a large portfolio of vessels leased to transport cargo for various customers worldwide, either on contract basis or in the spot market and exposure to assets mainly through long term leases with purchase options, to a limited extent also through direct ownership in vessels. With the flexible business model Western has the ability to adjust its fleet size to changing market conditions and invest counter cyclical. However in the short term the mgt have taken a wrong bet on the dry bulk market, being long chartered in tonnage. 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Western Bulk ASA Western Bulk ASA MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 713 Price 4.51 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) -361 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 351 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) - - 1,028 1,144 1,195 1,141 1,475 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

44 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Wilhelmsen Holding(WWI) is the parent company in the Wilhelmsen group. The main activities are transportation and logistical services for cars and high/heavy cargo through Willhelmsen ASA(72,7% owned) and maritime services through WMS(100% owned). Wilhelmsen has a long term track record of profitable growth and return on capital as well as returning cash to shareholders by dividends. The group is controlled by the Wilhelmsen family through A shares. The mgt and board are also controlled by the family. The holding company is trading at a substantial discount to sum of the parts in spite of decent results and long term shareholder value creation Performance - last 5 years 0 des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding A Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Class A MSCI The World Index / Marine -IND TR Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 7,806 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 6,619 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 14,425 FX rate (NOK) E 2015E Sales (mill.) 1,015 1,076 1,247 1,325 1,313 3,682 3,812 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%)

45 Investment Objective Long term value creation We prefer performing companies, with strong long term prospects, available at favourable prices

46 Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price Performance Operating excellence «Doing good business with bad people simply doesn t work» Warren E. Buffet Prospects Strong competitive position «We don t focus at beating the market short term. We want our holdings to beat their competitors long term» Börje Ekholm Price Favourable valuation «The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of a nice price is forgotten» Unknown

47 Om ODIN Maritim ODIN Maritim är en aktivt förvaltad aktiefond som investerar i sjöfartssektorn. Sektorn omfattar flera olika segment, bland dem råvarufrakt, containerfrakt, kemikaliefrakt och LNG-frakt, samt olika stöd- och leverantörstjänster. Fondens långsiktiga mål är att ge högre avkastning än sjöfartsmarknaden, mätt med fondens referensindex. Fakta om fonden Startår Referensindex MSCI World Gross Marine Basvaluta NOK Förvaltningsavgift 2 % Tecknings-/inlösenavgift 0 % Minsta teckningsbelopp 500 EUR 47

48 Om förvaltaren Förvaltare Lars Mohagen kom till ODIN år Han har förvaltat fonden sedan Lars är civilekonom och auktoriserad finansanalytiker med lång erfarenhet av portföljförvaltning och analys av sjöfarts- och offshoresektorn. Utöver sin mångåriga erfarenhet som portföljförvaltare hos ODIN har han även bred erfarenhet som investerare, aktiemäklare och finansanalytiker. 48

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50 Vi påminner om att Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen, förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för köp och förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om aktiekurserna faller. Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta eller fullständiga. Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard. Mer information finns på 50

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