ODIN Energi. Årskommentar 2015

Transkript

1 ODIN Energi Årskommentar 215

2 Fondens portfölj

3 ODIN Energi december 215 Avkastning senaste månaden Fonden gav en avkastning på -1,3 procent under den senaste månaden. Avkastningen för fondens referensindex under samma tidsperiod var -9,8 procent. Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och i år Senaste månaden har vi sålt aktier i Cameron, DSV och DS Norden samt köpt flera aktier i de stora oljebolagen Velero, Marathon, SSE, National Grid och NextEra. De största förändringarna i portföljen i år är att fonderna ODIN Maritim och ODIN Offshore slogs samman och bildade ODIN Energi. Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och i år De bästa bidragsgivarna till denna månads avkastning var EMGS och Frontline. De bolag som bidrog minst till avkastningen denna månad var Golar och Mærsk. De bästa bidragsgivarna i år är Kongsberg Gruppen och Halliburton. De bolag som bidragit minst till avkastningen i år är Solstad Offshore och BW Offshore.

4 ODIN Energi december 215 Prissättning av fonden Fonden prissätts till 16,1 gånger de kommande 12 månaderna. Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 3,8 procent. Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts fonden till,8 gånger. Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 3,1 procent. Prissättning av MSCI World - 6% Energy, 15% Utilities, 25% Industrials Marknaden prissätts till 19,2 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat. Marknaden ger en direktavkastning på 3,9 procent. Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts marknaden till 1,5 gånger. Bolagen i referensindex har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 7,5 procent.

5 ODIN Energi Årskommentar 215 Nytt fond større mandat Den 3 november 215 togs ODIN Maritim in i ODIN Offshore och ODIN Offshore bytte samtidigt namn till ODIN Energi. Fonden får ett nytt investeringsmandat och ska därför betraktas som en ny fond. ODIN Energi kommer att investera i solida kvalitetsbolag med anknytning till energisektorn. Vidare kommer fonden att investera i bolag inom olje- och gasutvinning, utveckling av alternativ energi, vidareförädling, transport och distribution samt leverantörer till sådana bolag. Vi skiljer oss från de flesta andra energifonder genom att vi inte bara investerar i bolag inom olje- och gasbranschen, utan i hela näringskedjan och tvärs över flera energiformer. Historiskt sett har energi- och energirelaterade bolag gett god avkastning i förhållande till risken över tid. Enligt vår mening beror detta på att energi är en nödvändighet för ekonomisk tillväxt och inte ett resultat av den. Trots energieffektiviserande åtgärder kommer efterfrågan på energi att fortsätta växa i många decennier till. Vill du ta del av denna tillväxt kan ODIN Energi vara ett alternativ för dig.

6 ODIN Energi Årskommentar 215 Makroläget ur energiperspektiv Lågt oljepris stimulerar tillväxt Energi är en nödvändig insatsfaktor för ekonomisk tillväxt. Samtidigt påverkar den globala tillväxten efterfrågan på energi. Dagens låga priser stimulerar den ekonomiska tillväxten och efterfrågan på energi. Exempel på detta är den ökade bilförsäljningen och efterfrågan på bensin i USA under 215 samt den ökade kinesiska efterfrågan på olja. Så här vid ingången av 216 utgör tillgången på energi ingen begränsning för den globala tillväxten, men bekymren är många. Trots massiva stimulansåtgärder och låga räntor är den globala ekonomiska tillväxten ur ett historiskt perspektiv låg, och osäkerheten kring den kinesiska tillväxten är särskilt stor. Tillväxtmarknaderna med Kina i spetsen är de viktigaste bidragen till den globala tillväxten på energiområdet. Ökad osäkerhet skapar således osäkerhet även i energisektorn. Den absoluta tillväxten är emellertid fortsatt positiv och ett ökat klimatfokus med påföljande utfasning av kol kommer att öka efterfrågan på energi. OPEC-möte Trots låga förväntningar på kursändringar eller produktionsminskningar inför OPEC-mötet den 4 december fortsatte oljepriset att falla kraftigt även efter mötet. Ministrarna tog i praktiken bort kartellens produktionstak och låter fortsatt oljemarknaden sätta priset utan att blanda sig i. På kort sikt är marknadsbalansen fortsatt negativ då den dagliga produktionen överstiger efterfrågan och lager byggs upp. Samtidigt ser vi tecken på att marknadsdynamiken börja verka. Oljebolagen skär i kostnaderna och minskar sina investeringsbudgetar kraftigt. Projekt ställs in eller läggs på is och prospekteringsbudgetarna minskas drastiskt. Detta öppnar för möjligheter. Utbudet kan komma att bli mycket lägre längre fram. Lägre priser stimulerar dessutom efterfrågan på olja som beräknas öka ungefär dubbelt så snabbt som under 215.

7 ODIN Energi Årskommentar 215 Makroläget ur energiperspektiv Kraftigt fall i energi priser substition 215 präglades av kraftigt fallande råvarupriser. Det är inte bara oljepriset som rasat utan även andra energipriser har följt med ned. Naturgas, kol, kraft och derivatprodukter (raffinerade produkter, industrigaser) genomgick en fallande trend under året. Substitutionseffekter och överskott på utbudssidan bidrar till nedgången. Exempelvis kan flera kraftproducenter välja mellan gas och kol som insatsfaktorer, raffinaderier kan välja mellan olika oljekvaliteter och industri-/kemikalieproducenter mellan olika typer av derivatprodukter. Valet av insatsfaktor avgörs av lönsamhet och arbitragemöjligheter. Låga priser och överskott i ett segment exporteras således till andra segment. Det ökade fokuset på klimat och miljö efter Parismötet, inte minst i Kina efter rekordhöga luftföroreningar, torde på sikt leda till betydligt större efterfrågan på gas i stället för kol. Investeringar i förnybara energikällor som sol och vind ökar också kraftigt. Ökad efterfrågan och lägre utbud torde på sikt förbättra marknadsbalansen inom olja och gas. I kombination med en minskad kolanvändning kommer substitutionseffekten att få motsatt effekt jämfört med 215 med generellt stigande energipriser. Mer krävande att finansiera tillväxt Till följd av låga energipriser, kostnadsbesparingar och lägre aktivitetsnivåer, kan vi notera en ökad grad av försummelse på energibolagens kreditmarknader. Flera utfärdare har gått i konkurs eller ligger i förhandlingar med sina kreditorer. Särskilt tufft har det varit på marknaden för högränteobligationer och s.k. MLP-bolag (Master Limited Partnerships) i USA. Cirka 25 procent av den amerikanska högräntemarknaden, i utestående belopp mätt, kommer från energirelaterade bolag. Dessa marknader har under senare år varit huvudfinansiärer av energiprojekt. I takt med de fallande kurserna på högränteobligationer och MLPandelar har likviditeten imploderat vilket gjort det betydligt svårare att finansiera såväl befintliga som nya projekt. Ihållande låga energipriser ökar stressen men samtidigt kan en urskillningslös dumpning av energirelaterade aktier komma att innebära goda köpmöjligheter för kvalitetsbolag.

8 ODIN Energi Årskommentar 215 Utveckling för energiaktier 215 Aktierna i energisektorn gick i stort sett hand i hand med oljepriset under 215. Prisutvecklingen planade ut i maj månad. Marknaden trodde fram till i maj på ett återhämtningsscenario där bolag med verksamhet inom oljeservice, prospektering och utveckling skulle stiga mest och integrerade oljebolag minst. Sedan maj har samtliga sektorer fallit kraftigt och återhämtningsscenariot har ersatts av tron på en längre period av lägre tillväxt. I slutet av året sjönk aktierna ytterligare efter OPEC-mötet. På årsbasis sjönk E&P-sektorn (prospektering och utvinning av olja) mest, med drygt 4 procent (enligt PHLX-index för oljeprospektering och -produktion), oljeservice med cirka 22 procent (PHLX oljeserviceindex) medan MSCI World Energy gick ned med omkring 21 procent (alla siffror i amerikanska dollar). Få bolag kunde uppvisa en så positiv kursutveckling under 215. Ljuspunkterna är shippingbolag med tankflottor och enskilda bolag med exponering mot förnybar energi.

9 ODIN Energi Årskommentar 215 Generell positionering - investeringsfilosofi På en särskilt utsatt energimarknad, som allmänt präglas av utbudsöverskott, finansieringsutmaningar, pessimism och dåligt sentiment, ser vi goda chanser att positionera oss i kvalitetsbolag som kan överleva och till och med komma stärkta ur lågkonjunkturen jämfört med konkurrenterna. Vi tror fortsatt att energimarknaderna är cykliska och att de på sikt kommer att återhämta sig men när så sker är svårt att sia om. Vi försöker därför positionera oss i bolag med dokumenterat goda resultat, som har starka konkurrenspositioner inför framtiden och som kan köpas till ett attraktivt pris. 35 % 3 % 25 % 2 % 15 % 1 % 5 % % Med vårt nya utökade mandat kan vi investera i bolag med mer förutsägbara och stabila affärsmodeller (utilities) och industribolag som är underleverantörer till energisektorn. Dessa är generellt sett betydligt mindre konjunkturkänsliga än shipping-, E&P- och oljeservicebolag.

10 ODIN Energi Årskommentar 215 Utsikter Vid ingången av 216 är många energiaktier kursmässigt i botten och sektorn har utvecklats betydligt sämre än andra. Bolagen fokuserar generellt på att anpassa sig till ett scenario med lägre energipriser. Man skär i kostnader, projekt och processer effektiviseras och produktiviteten ökar. I kombination med deflation inom servicetjänster har sektorns kostnadsbas minskats avsevärt. Olje- och E&P-bolagens kostnader har exempelvis minskat med 3-4 procent. I dåliga tider passar kvalitetsbolag på att stärka sina positioner genom övertaganden och allianser för att närma sig kunderna och kunna erbjuda ett bredare produkt- och tjänstesortiment, alternativt öka närvaron på strategiskt viktiga områden. Bra exempel är Schlumbergers övertagande av Cameron inom oljeservice och Royal Dutch Shells övertagande av BG på oljesidan. Generellt sett tror vi att de stora tongivande bolagen kommer att vara väl positionerade med en stark plattform för lönsam tillväxt inför nästa uppgång i cykeln. Vi vill därför koncentrera portföljen i den här typen av bolag. Tittar vi på bokfört värde så är energisektorn historiskt sett lågt värderad, till och med lägre än under finanskrisen. Exempelvis värderas S&P 5 Energy nu till cirka 1,4x bokfört värde mot genomsnittet för 2 år på 2,6x bokfört värde. Intjäningsmultiplerna är däremot högre ur ett historiskt perspektiv, vilket återspeglar svaga resultat till följd av dagens låga energipriser. Detta är ingen ovanlighet i cykliska branscher. Då aktiekurserna som regel följer energipriserna är därför kursuppgångar föga troliga om inte energipriserna också ökar. På längre sikt är det mycket som talar för en bättre marknadsbalans på olje- och gasmarknaderna, men på kort sikt präglas marknaderna av ett för stort utbud i förhållande till efterfrågan.

11 Nyckeltal och nyheter från portföljen presenteras på engelska

12 Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (SEK) ODIN ENERGI Index Historical Return % (SEK)* Last Month YTD 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y 1 Y Since inception Portfolio -1,34-27,9-27,9-14,2-12,22-4,72 2,5 Benchmark -9,75-13,94-13,94 -,61-3,22 -,31,49 Exess Return -,59-13,96-13,96-13,41-9, -4,41 1,56 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized

13 Annual returns last 1 years

14 Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE Exxon Mobil Corporation 5,7% United States Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 2, 2,8 3,7 3,9 1,9 9,4 BP p.l.c. Sponsored ADR 5,4% United States Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 14,5 15,3 7,7 7,7,9 6,4 Royal Dutch Shell Plc 4,8% United States Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 12,7 12,1 8,2 8,2,9 7, Schlumberger NV 4,4% United States Energy Equipment & Services 2,8 26,8 2,9 2,9 2,3 11,3 Total SA Sponsored ADR 4,3% United States Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels 1,4 12,3 6, 6, 1,1 1,5 Core Laboratories NV 3,8% United States Energy Equipment & Services 34,4 38,2 2, 2, -241,6-72,2 A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Class 2,9% Denmark Marine 8,3 9,2 3,6 3,9,7 8,8 Petroleum Geo-Services ASA 2,6% Norway Energy Equipment & Services -6,5-23,4,,,6-8,6 Kongsberg Gruppen ASA 2,6% Norway Aerospace & Defense 18,3 15,6 3,6 3,4 2,8 15,5 FMC Technologies, Inc. 2,6% United States Energy Equipment & Services 12,8 18,1,, 2,6 2,2 Topp 1 39,% 18,9 18,2 4,3 4,3 1,3 6,8 ODIN ENERGI 25,7 16,1 4,1 3,8,8 3,1 * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares

15 Current holdings

16 Share price performance*, year to date (Sorted by weight in portfolio) *) Share price performance for equities included in the benchmark. Equities not included in the benchmark are calculated from portfolio figures.

17 Contribution, year to date

18 Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years Portfolio Index Active share,84 Sharpe ratio 1) -,51 Standard Deviation 2) 15,81,26 19,18 Portfolio Alpha -11,24 Beta,63 Tracking error 12,51 Information ratio -1,4 1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate. 2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.

19 Pricing - Global Equities (MSCI World)

20 OECD Leading indicator Level above indicates expanding activity in OECD area

21 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast

22 ODIN ENERGI - 31/12/215 Security (Company) Currency Market Number of shares Market price Cost price Market value Unrealised gain (loss) Local currency NOK NOK NOK % of assets under management Anadarco Petroleum Corp USD New York 65 48, , Atlantica Tender Drilling NOK Oslo (U) , ,6 Aurora LPG Holding NOK Oslo , ,5 Awilco LNG NOK Oslo , ,6 BP (USD) USD New York , ,3 BW Offshore NOK Oslo 8 2, ,5 Baker Hughes USD New York 8 46, ,3 ConocoPhillips USD New York 7 46, , Core Laboratories USD New York 55 18, ,7 DHT Holdings USD New York 225 7, ,1 EOG Resources USD New York 5 7, ,2 Electromagnetic Geoservices NOK Oslo , ,6 Exxon Mobil Corp USD New York , ,6 FMC Technoligies USD New York 14 29, ,5 Frontline NOK Oslo 75 25, ,4 Golar LNG USD New York 15 15, ,5 Halliburton USD New York 11 34, ,4 Höegh LNG Holdings NOK Oslo 34 94, ,3 MARATHON PETROLEUM USD New York 6 52, , Navigator Holdings USD New York , ,9 Navios Maritime Acquisition USD New York 75 2, ,4 Noble Energy USD New York 15 32, ,1 Pacific Drilling USD New York , ,5 Petroleum Geo-Services NOK Oslo 1 36, ,6 Royal Dutch Shell ADR USD New York , ,8 Schlumberger USD New York 69, ,4 Scorpio Tankers USD New York 2 7, , Solstad Offshore NOK Oslo , ,6 Subsea 7 NOK Oslo 43 63, ,9 TGS Nopec Geophysical NOK Oslo , ,5 Tanker Investments NOK Oslo , ,7 Technip EUR Paris 2 46, ,6 Total ADR USD New York 15 45, ,2 VALERO ENERGY CORP USD New York 45 71, , Weatherford Intl. (USD) USD New York 2 8, , Total Energy , 8% TTS Group 11/16 NOK Oslo (U) , ,4 A.P. Möller - Maersk B DKK København , ,9 ABB (SEK) SEK Stockholm , , GENERAL ELECTRIC CO USD New York 31, ,9 Kongsberg Gruppen NOK Oslo , ,6 Odfjell B NOK Oslo 9 26, ,7 Siemens EUR Frankfurt 4 89, ,4 Stolt Nielsen NOK Oslo , ,5

23 Security (Company) Currency Market Number of shares Market price Cost price Market value Unrealised gain (loss) Local currency NOK NOK NOK % of assets under management TTS Group NOK Oslo , ,1 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding A NOK Oslo 133, ,9 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding B NOK Oslo , ,6 Total Industrials ,1 National Grid GBP London , , Nextera Energy USD New York 15 14, , Scottish & South. Energy GBP London , ,1 Total Utilities ,1 Total portfolio ,2

24 Investments - ODIN Energi

25 A.P Möller - Maersk The Maersk Group has five core businesses which include Maersk Line, APM Terminals, Maersk Oil, Maersk Drilling and APM Shipping Services. The last business area is comprised of Maersk Supply Service, Maersk Tankers, Damco and Svitzer. Maersk has an impressive track record compared to peers in terms of earnings and return on capital. Cost cutting and streamlining operations has mitigated industry overcapacity and expanded margins. Few if any competitors on the liner side is profitable, preventing further pressure on day rates. Strong and growing volumes are beneficial for Maersk being the biggest liner company in the world. Falling oil prices are hurting the E&P division, but decreasing bunker costs in the liner division, on a group basis fairly hedged. Maersk is currently trading at a discount to sum of the parts. The strategy over time is to reduce number of divisions and decrease the conglomerate discount. Generating free cash flow and returning cash to shareholders via dividends and share buy backs. A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Class B Market Value (mill.) Price 895. Price currency DKK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Maersk ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping

26 ABB Ltd. ABB was formed in 1988 through the merger of Swiss Brown Boveri and Swedish Asean. The companies were founded in 1883 and 1891, respectively. Today, ABB's portfolio covers electricals, automation, controls and instrumentation for power generation and processes, power transmission and distribution solutions, low voltage products, motors and drives, intelligent building systems and robot systems. ABB Ltd. Industrial Conglomerates Market Value (mill.) Price 14.6 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) ABB is a global leader in power and automation technologies. With innovative employees in more than countries ABB has leading market positions in many of its core markets. The long term business trends of increased energy efficiency and higher degree of automation are strong growth drivers for the business longer term. With their market leading products in automation and high end power they can enable a premium price strategy. We find the shares undervalued. We think they can continue to execute on their acquisition strategy with their strong balance sheet. In addition they have a solid cash flow and a strong return on capital ABB Ltd. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

27 Anadarko Petroleum Anadarko is an independent exploration and production company operating both off- and offshore. The company has large reserves and production from unconventional basins in the US and deepwater Gulf of Mexico in addition to East and West Africa. Anadarko is among the leading global E&P players with a long term track record. The company has a very solid US liquids asset base driven by its Niobara asset, in addition to exciting projects in GOM, Mozambique and West Africa. Anadarko recently announced extensions of credit facilities, raised oil production guidance, and highlighted lower capital and operating cost expectations. In addition, the company stated that it is accelerating the Heidelberg field in the Gulf of Mexico first oil to 1Q16, one quarter earlier than expected. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Market Value (mill.) 2 61 Price 4.56 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Anadarko Petroleum Corporation ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oil & Gas Production

28 Atlantica Tender Drilling Atlantica Tender Drilling operates two rigs on term contracts, have one further rig with flexible delivery under construction and minority interest in a warm stacked unit. Atlantica operates in the tender support market. The market for tender support units is a niche market characterized by few players, fairly stable rates, less competition than in the drilling rig market and decent return on invested capital. Atlantica is a opportunistic play initiated by the Bassoe group. The biggest shareholder is the well respected private equity fund Hictec Vision. The investment proposition is to take delivery of the newbuilds( one contracted), place them on longer term contracts and sell the company or its fleet within the next 2-3 years. Atlantica Tender Drilling Ltd. Market Value (mill.) 273 Price 2. Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 258 Reporting currency Enterprise Value (mill.) 53 FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery Atlantica Tender Drilling Ltd. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

29 Aurora LPG Aurora owns and operates a fleet of modern VLGC vessels and has a VLGC new-building program at Hyundai Heavy Industries. Aurora LPG Holding ASA Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Aurora is a pure play on larger gas (LPG) vessels with a fleet of 3 vessels on the water and 4 under construction. The booming production of gas from shales and rapid expansion of export terminals in the US is boosting demand for LPG transport. Aurora has a opportunistic strategy both on operations and corporate structure. Achieved day rates have by far outperformed peers. The company has outsourced its technical and commercial operations to third party partners at competitive market terms, which in turn gives the company a low and flexible cost structure. The flexible business model, open shareholder structure and opportunistic management make Aurora an obvious M&A candidate. Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Aurora LPG Holding ASA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

30 Awilco LNG Awilco LNG is a LNG transportation provider, owning and operating LNG vessels. The Company owns two 156, cbm TFDE membrane LNG vessels; WilForce and WilPride, and two 125, cbm steam Moss type LNG vessels; WilGas, WilPower and WilEnergy. The LNG transportation market is looking challenging in the short term due to oversupply of vessels and delayed start up of new liquefaction plants. However, huge export volumes from the US on steam from 216 is estimated to firm up the market. Awilco has a strong balance sheet, no further capex and low day rate break even to weather the storm into a firmer market. The company`s shares are attractively priced on implied vessel values compared to peers and current newbuilding prices. Awilco LNG ASA Market Value (mill.) 224 Price 3.3 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 2 73 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Awilco LNG ASA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping

31 Baker Hughes Baker Hughes is one of the major intergrated american oil service companies - big3 operating on a global basis. The company delivers solutions that help oil and gas operators make the most of their reservoirs. Two of the biggest US oil services companies Halliburton(HAL) and Baker Hughes(BHI) has agreed to a transaction where HAL acquires BHI in a 75% stock deal. BHI shareholders will receive 1,12 HAL shares plus $19 in cash. A 3% premium to pre transaction share price. Synergies is estimated at $2 billion, driven by by the complementarity of product service lines and geography. The combined company will be a giant matching Sclumberger (SLB) in terms of turnover and broad product line. Historically SLB has traded at substantial pricing ratio premiums to HAL and BHI. Over time the «new» HAL/BHI company is expected to narrow its pricing discount to SLB. The transaction is expected to close 1H 216. Baker Hughes Incorporated Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oilfield Services/Equipment Baker Hughes Incorporated ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

32 BP BP is one of the leading integrated oil majors operating upstream and downstream on a global basis. BP p.l.c. Integrated Oil Market Value (mill.) Price 3.29 Price currency GBP Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E BP has a balanced and diversified portfolio of both upstream, midstream and downstream assets which stabilizes the company s free cash flow. The estimated FCF yield for 216 is among the highest within the oil majors and support the dividend payment. BP has also a solid and stable project backlog which will maintain the production growth until beyond 22. The company s ability to cut costs has also shown to be impressive which is of most importance in the current oil price environment. During 215 there as been more clarity around the settlements size after the Macondo disaster in 21. This should reduce the discount to peers that has characterized BP the last five years. Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) BP p.l.c. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

33 BW Offshore BW Offshore owns and operate a fleet of floating production vessels(fpso) on a global basis. Major part of operations is in West Africa and Latin America(Brazil and Mexico). The market for FPSOs has been challenging with low returns due to poor management of risky projects. Several competitors are bankrupt, only a handful of companies are still in the industry. BWs existing fleet is generating a predictable cash flow from term contracts. In addition to visible growth from a new project based on a newbuild. The new vessel project is taken on after an extensive feed study paid by the client, reducing risk compared to earlier projects based on conversion of older crude tankers. Dividends have historically been paid on a quarterly basis. However, due to increasing uncertainty on back of the collapsing oil price the BOD have suspended dividends short term. BW Offshore Limited Market Value (mill.) 1 57 Price 2.19 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) BW Offshore Limited ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oilfield Services/Equipment

34 ConocoPhillips Conoco is an independent exploration and production company operating both off- and offshore. The company has large reserves and production from unconventional basins in the US and deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Conco offers one of the better risk-reward tradeoffs among the mega cap majors, trading at a substantial discount to its peers. ConocoPhillips Oil & Gas Production Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Its North America unconventional oil portfolio, which spans across the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Permian plays, is unmatched among the Super Majors. COP believes it has around 16 billion barrels of resource producible at below $6/bl Brent (> 1% IRR) and another 8 billion boe could be produced between $6- $75 Brent The company s portfolio will become less capital intensive as it completes 216 projects and exits deepwater exploration. 2 ConocoPhillips ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

35 Core Laboratories Core Labs is a service company providing proprietary and patented reservoir description, production enhancement and reservoir management services to the oil and gas industry. A asset light and high return company with low financial gearing. Core Labs is a leading technology company that works in reservoir description and management, and production enhancement to increase the overall oil and gas recovery. Its complex production enhancement technology is needed to cope with increasing decline rates. This is specially in focus during an oil price trough as oil producers are pursuing to cover dividend by allocating sparse capex in the best way to increase cash flow. Core labs is also covered by network moats due to its leading technology and global presence. They cooperate with most of the major players and is therefore more likely to maintain income relatively. Core Laboratories NV Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 333 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 4 45 FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Core Laboratories NV ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oilfield Services/Equipment

36 DHT Holdings DHT is a crude oil tanker company. The fleet trades globally and consists of crude oil tankers in the VLCC, Aframax and Suezmax segments. The company has all functions inhouse and operate through integrated management companies in Oslo, Norway and Singapore. DHT Holdings, Inc. Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 659 Price 7.1 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 54 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) DHT has grown its tanker fleet through a series of transactions involving vessels on the water and ordering of newbuilds. The tanker market looks exciting the next few years, ton miles demand is increasing and the fleet is decreasing. DHT trades at a discount to net asset values in spite of day rates spiking and tanker values on the rise DHT Holdings, Inc. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

37 EMGS EMGS is the leading global provider of EM seismic. The company has conducted impressive surveys in Mexico and the Barents sea. EM is used by the oil industry as a supplement to seismic for evaluating drilling locations. EMGS is operating a three vessel fleet, the challenge has been to achieve utilization on a continued basis. The adoption of the EM technology picks up, but more slowly than expected. EMGS is a small company with a limited salesforce. Agreements and JV projects with seismic companies like TGS, Spectrum and Western Geco bundling EM and seismic is expected to contribute to increased sales and broader technology adoption. The company has during the latter part of 215 been through restructuring and refinancing lead by Siem Industries. ElectroMagnetic GeoServices ASA Market Value (mill.) 367 Price.28 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 164 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 532 FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) EMGS ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oilfield Services/Equipment

38 EOG Resources EOG is an independent exploration and production company operating onshore. The company has large reserves and production from unconventional basins in the US. EOG has a fantastic track record of being first mover with leading technology and best in class assets. It was one of the pioneers in fracking and directional drilling and therefore conventionalize unconventional shale oil. With the best assets, almost debt free, good track record and a history of achieving leading technology, we are convinced that EOG is one of the safer investments in shale oil E&P companies. EOG Resources, Inc. Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oil & Gas Production 5 EOG Resources, Inc. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

39 Exxon Mobil Exxon is one of the leading integrated oil majors operating upstream and downstream on a global basis. Exxon Mobil Corporation Integrated Oil Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Exxon has remained consistent in its corporate operations model to deliver strong ROCE and return capital to shareholders via common stock dividends, and stock buybacks when there is sufficient free cash flow. Management has a strong shareholder commitment, in terms of dividend distribution and growth. Exxon s investments spending is more stable over time than that of most of its peers and stands out with consistently being in the high among peers when it comes to ROCE. XOM has Debt/Book Capitalization of 17%, about ½ IOC peers and 1/3 of US Large Cap E&Ps and remains a clear beneficiary from its IOC model. Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Exxon Mobil Corporation ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Exxon is geographic diversified with 75 of upstream output outside of the US, and 61% of R&M throughput and chemicals sales.

40 FMC Technologies FMC is a provider of sophisticated technology solutions for energy and industrial markets. FMC Technologies is amidst a period of reduced subsea equipment orders and substantially lower demand for surface wellheads and fluid control systems in North America on back of the collapse in oil prices. The company, however, has good backlog visibility and one of the best management teams in the business taking the appropriate steps to right-size the business and encourage customer adoption of newer technologies and equipment standardization. Forsys, a joint venture with Technip should help FMC getting closer to clients, getting in earlier on projects, increase scope and gain further market share. FMC has strong free cash flow, low net debt and has shown a consistent track record of reducing its share count over time. FMC Technologies, Inc. Market Value (mill.) Price 26. Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 923 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 6 85 FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) FMC Technologies, Inc. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oilfield Services/Equipment

41 Frontline Frontline is a Fredriksen controlled shipping company invested in crude and product carriers with an opportunistic approach focusing on shareholder return and M&A. The merger with Frontline 212 is complete and the tanker market is booming. We expect the healthy demand for tankers to continue, fuelled by the soft oil price and increased OPEC production, which combined with substantial congestion should absorb the fleet growth in H The company is generating substantial cash flows at the moment and expected to do so through 216 which will result in a build-up of cash or payment of dividends through the year. Frontline Ltd. Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Marine Shipping Frontline Ltd. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

42 General Electric General Electric Co. is a technology and financial services company that develops and manufactures products for the generation, transmission, distribution, control and utilization of electricity. GE s has a diversified portfolio with a high FCF covered dividend and an impressive guided earnings growth the next three years of <1% CAGR. GE has been paying a dividend since This supports GE s higher valuation than its peers. The company is defensive against an industrial economic downturn due to its highly diversified portfolio, and management has had success with divesting domestic GE Capital businesses. A $1bn cost cut program for 215 and 216 is on schedule and will reduce the impact of the lower commodity prices within the oil and gas sector. GE has targeted to pay out $26bn in dividends and buybacks and generate around $3bn in free cash flow. This is expected to be led by Power, Renewables, Energy Management, Aviation and Healthcare, while Oil & Gas and Transportation are expected to be weak. General Electric Company Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) General Electric Company ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Industrial Conglomerates

43 Golar LNG Golar LNG Limited is a midstream liquefied natural gas (LNG) company, engaged in the transportation, regasification and liquefaction, and trading of LNG. The company operates in two segments, Vessel Operations and Commodity Trading. It is involved in acquisition, ownership, operation, and chartering of LNG carriers and floating storage regasification units (FSRU); and the development of floating LNG projects(flng). Golar is in the process of transforming from an LNG shipping company to a midstream player with FLNG focus. The company is currently converting two vessels to FLNG units offering the lowest cost of liquefaction in the industry. Compared to land based plants FLNG units are by far cheaper and more flexible. The first FLNG project is due to start up 1H 17 contracted with Perenco/SNH in Cameroon based on a tolling fee. Based on vessel market values on Golars existing fleet of LNG carriers and FRSUs very limited value is priced in on FLNG units. Golar LNG Limited Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 2 63 FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Golar LNG Limited ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping

44 Halliburton Halliburton is one of the major integrated American oil service companies - big3 operating on a global basis. The company is the market leader on fracking in North America. Two of the biggest US oil services companies Halliburton(HAL) and Baker Hughes(BHI) has agreed to a transaction where HAL aquires BHI in a 75% stock deal. BHI shareholders will receive 1,12 HAL shares plus $19 in cash. A 3% premium to pre transaction share price. Synergies is estimated at $2 billion, driven by by the complementarity of product service lines and geography. The combined company will be a giant matching Sclumberger (SLB) in terms of turnover and broad product line. Historically SLB has traded at substantial pricing ratio premiums to HAL and BHI. Over time the «new» HAL/BHI company is expected to narrow its pricing discount to SLB. The transaction is expected to close 1H 216 Halliburton Company Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 5 57 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Halliburton Company ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oilfield Services/Equipment

45 Höegh LNG Holdings Höegh LNG Holdings provides energy solutions and operates world-wide with a leading position as owner and operator of floating LNG import terminals; Floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). Hoegh floating terminal projects are based on newbuildings and fixed on long term contracts. After commencing operation and thereby having de-risked the asset, they are sold to the MLP subsidary Höegh LNG Partners LP in order to recycle capital to further grow the company. In addition the company has developed a lowcost solution for floating liquefaction terminals (FLNG). Hoegh is currently negotiating it first project based on a feed study with an american company. Hoegh is experiencing increasing demand for FSRUs based on lower gas prices spurring demand in emerging countries without import terminals. Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd. Market Value (mill.) Price 9.75 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping The company started paying dividend from 215, expected to grow with new projects commencing operations.

46 Kongsberg Gruppen Kongsberg Gruppen is a global company operating within the oil&gas,- maritime, - and defence sectors worldwide. The company supplies high-technology systems and solutions. Strong R&D capabilities. A proven asset-light model with strong returns on capital. High barriers to entry and strong niche positions in different product groups. Consequently the company has an outstanding track record in value creation. We think the company will continue its topline growth based on strong competitive positions built over the last few years. The risk to our investment case is austerity measures on the defence side which we have seen over the last couple of years, and falling capex among oil companies on the offshore/maritime side. Government of Norway is a majority owner. Kongsberg Gruppen ASA Market Value (mill.) 16 5 Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Aerospace & Defense Kongsberg Gruppen ASA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

47 Marathon Petroleum Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an independent petroleum product refiners, marketers and transporters in the United States with most of its assets in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions. It refines crude oil and other feedstocks and also purchases ethanol and refined products for resale. Marathon is benefiting from the growing US refiner cost and crude input advantage, which will support refiner cash flow sustainability, and allow US based refiners to capture additional share of the export market. Shareholder return is a priority for Marathon, as evidenced by its dividend and share buyback activity over time. Management is committed to returning cash not needed for operations and investments. MPC has an impressive history of high quality asset acquisitions, and organic investments. Management expects Midstream contribution to the company s total EBITDA stream to grow from <1% currently to be roughly equal with R&M at over 4% by 22, with the intention of adding stable cash flow. Marathon Petroleum Corporation Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Marathon Petroleum Corporation ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oil Refining/Marketing

48 National Grid NG is a utility company engaged in transmission and distribution of electricity and gas in Great Britain and the US. It owns and operates electricity distribution networks in the northeastern US which accounts for about half of the company s revenue. The rest is divided between electricity and gas transmission in the UK. National Grid s regulated business offers low risk and achieves sector leading returns. It has a more balanced set of growth opportunities due to the diversification in UK and US. It s allocation of capex towards the US to increase the rate base growth will increase the overall achieved return on equity which is already high compared to most peer. The high dividend yield, dividend growth at least above inflation and capital base growth will contribute to attractive share holder returns. National Grid plc Market Value (mill.) Price 9.4 Price currency GBP Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency GBP Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 217E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) National Grid plc ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Electric Utilities

49 Navigator Holdings Navigator Holdings is the leading owner and operator of the world s largest fleet of handysize liquefied gas carriers. The company provides international seaborne transportation and regional distribution services of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrochemical gases and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users and commodity traders. Navigator Holdings Ltd. Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 68 Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 48 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 1 16 FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Navigators fleet is very flexible in terms of trading routes and cargo, ideally positioned to profit from increasing US LPG exports and arbitrage trading of petrochemical products Segment dayrates are improving increasing Navigator s return. Compared to larger vessels operating on long haul trades, handy size dayrates are less volatile and cash flows more stable. The orderbook of newbuildings are additionally much lower than in the bigger segment Navigator Holdings Ltd. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

50 Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp. Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation is an owner and operator of tanker vessels focusing in the transportation of petroleum products and bulk liquid chemicals. The company owns a large fleet of modern crude oil, refined petroleum product and chemical tankers providing world-wide marine transportation services. Navios Maritime Acquisition Corporation Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 374 Price 2.48 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 1 13 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Navios` strategy is to charter our vessels to international oil companies, refiners and large vessel operators under long, medium and short-term charters, mostly on fixed terms including profit splits. The chartering strategy is securing long term predictable cashflow underpinning the company s dividend strategy of returning cash to shareholders quaterly. Navios has increased its exposure to the large crude tanker market by acquiring several vessels at attractive prices the last year Navios Maritime Acquisition ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

51 NextEra Energy NextEra Energy, Inc. operates as an investment holding company with interests in generating and distributing electricity. Through its subsidiaries it provides retail and wholesale electric services and owns generation, transmission and distribution facilities. Power generation is mainly from gas, nuclear and wind, but also include some solar. NextEra Energy, Inc. Electric Utilities Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Nextra is a infrastructure company with stable cash flows, paying dividends and opportunistically buying back stock. 8% of its business is in the regulated area showing higher margins, consistent revenues and lower risk compare to other energy companies. Non competitive agreements with municipalities works as economic moat As a consequence of focus on power generation from renewables NextEra Energy has one of the lowest CO2 emission rate of the US power producers. NextEra Energy, Inc. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

52 Noble Energy Noble is an independent exploration and production company operating both off- and offshore. The company has large reserves and production from unconventional basins in the US and deepwater Gulf of Mexico in addition to Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa. Noble is improving its execution and capital efficiency, resulting in increased production and better cash flow. With a reduced operating cost outlook, onshore drilling and completion efficiency gains, as well as, significant Deepwater GoM development related spending behind them, Noble looks well positioned. Management highlights the ability to live within cash flow while generating organic production growth. Noble Energy, Inc. Market Value (mill.) Price 3.83 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oil & Gas Production Noble Energy, Inc. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

53 Odfjell Odfjell is a leading company in the global market for transportation and storage of bulk liquid chemicals, acids, edible oils and other special products.. Odfjell owns and operates chemical tankers and LPG/Ethylene carriers in global and regional trades as well as a joint venture network of tank terminals. The market for transportation of chemicals is looking promising on the back of ton miles increasing, a consequence of new refineries starting in the Middle East and the US shale boom. Longer term outlook is more uncertain due to a high orderbook of newbuilds, mostly controlled by unexperienced shipping companies and private equity players. The terminal division is generating steady cash flow, while the chemical fleet is more volatile operating on short term and spot contracts. Odfjell is currently evaluating its strategy and has recently changed management. The company is generating low return on capital and is fairly high leveraged. The terminal and gas division is partly owned by private equity partners making it a M&A candidate. Odfjell SE Class B Market Value (mill.) Price 24.8 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Odfjell SE Class B ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping

54 Pacific Drilling Pacific Drilling S.A. is a offshore drilling company that provides global ultra deep water drilling services to the oil and natural gas industry through the use of highspecification drillship. Pacific have one of the newest and most technologically advanced fleets in the world. The vessels are all state-of-the-art, highspecification units, which benefit from a proven design and highly developed construction techniques. Clients prefer modern vessels in a competitive rig market, saving cost and drilling days in addition to being more efficient and safer. The company have 5 drill ships working on longer term contracts and 2 available for new contracts. Pacific Drilling was granted amendments to its senior credit facility and revolver in Q4 215, allowing for higher gearing and providing more liquidity. Pacific Drilling S.A. Market Value (mill.) 135 Price.64 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Pacific Drilling S.A. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Contract Drilling

55 Petroleum Geo Service Petroleum Geo services (PGS) offers a broad range of products including seismic and electromagnetic services, data acquisition, processing, reservoir analysis/interpretation and multi-client library data helping oil companies to find oil and gas reserves offshore worldwide. In a currently challenging seismic market PGS is best positioned in the industry with the most modern and cost efficient fleet and is differentiating itself from peers from its Geostreamer technology. PGS has a solid liquidity reserve and the balance sheet to navigate through the downturn in the seismic market and take delivery of two newbuilds coming on stream in 216 and 17. Petroleum Geo-Services ASA Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oilfield Services/Equipment Petroleum Geo-Services ASA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

56 Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell Plc one of the leading integrated oil majors operating upstream and downstream on a global basis. It also has a portfolio of renewables. The company was founded in 197 and is headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. Shell has a superior portfolio, compared to peers, in terms of lower decline rate translating into a lower required terminal reinvestment rate to sustain production. The merger with BG, add increasing LNG exposure and significantly lowers Shell s long run replacement costs and enhances capex flexibility. The new combined group guide for a combined capex in 216 of USD 33bn, down from prior 216 guiding of USD 35bn. NAV break even is guided at Brent of low 6/bbl, and accretive to cash flow from operations in 216 at Brent USD 5/bbl. Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class B Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency GBP Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class B ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Integrated Oil The main risk to our investment thesis is a material recovery in the oil price, with Shell being less levered in comparison to peers.

57 Schlumberger Schlumberger is the world s leading supplier of technology, integrated project management and information solutions to the oil and gas industry. Schlumberger provides the industry s widest range of products and services from exploration through production. The company is in forefront of technology development and is best in class in terms of execution track record. SLB is providing clients solutions optimizing and enhancing production and exploration. SLB has premium margins and return on capital employed compared to peers. Free cash flow is used for growth in addition to dividends and share buy backs. Schlumberger NV Market Value (mill.) Price 65.8 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oilfield Services/Equipment Schlumberger NV ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

58 Scorpio Tankers Scorpio Tankers owns and operate a fleet of modern product tankers - used to distribute and trade vegetable oils, petroleum based feedstock, and refining outputs such as gasoline, diesel, jet, and naphtha. Scorpio Tankers has an opportunistic strategy with the aim of generating shareholder value by building a fleet of modern product tankers through newbuilds. Management ordered huge series of vessels at historically low yard prices including crude tankers and LPG gas carriers. Subsequently the crude tanker newbuilding contracts have been sold at a profit and the gas carriers have been exchanged for Dorian shares. The product tanker fleet are mostly on the water generating cash flow in a strong market benefitting from booming demand on back of increased ton miles. Scorpio is outperforming the market, benefitting from modern vessels being more fuel efficient. Scorpio Tankers Inc. Market Value (mill.) Price 6.55 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 2 64 FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Scorpio Tankers Inc. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping The company is returning cash to shareholders by dividends and share buy backs.

59 Siemens AG Siemens AG is engaged in the electrical engineering and electronics business. The Energy segment offers products, services, and solutions for the generation and transmission of power; and the extraction, conversion, and transport of oil and gas. It is also engaged in industry automation and healthcare. Siemens has a very broad offering base, solid balance sheet and a decent dividend pay out growth that is fully covered by its FCF. Focus on improving margins on its underperforming business segments has started to give results and could contribute to higher overall margins going forward. The company s solid management has executed all of the planned milestones for 214 and 215, and are well on track to reach its 1bn cost savings by end 217. Greater impact of this cost saving should be in 216. Siemens AG Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency EUR Net debt (mill.) 16 5 Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill.) 9 72 FX rate (NOK) E 217E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Siemens AG ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Industrial Conglomerates

60 Solstad Offshore Solstad Offshore is a leading supply shipping company focusing on large and advanced offshore supply vessels. Majority of the fleet is operating in the North Sea and Latin America. Solstads strategy is focused on segments with advanced vessels and high barriers to entry. Subsea construction vessels are operated on long term contracts to the subsea development companies, while anchor handling tugs are more opportunistically operated in the spot market. Financial focus is shifting to cash flow generation and deleveraging after a rapid fleet expansion period. Only one new build is currently under construction. The Solstad shares are trading at a substantial discount to NAV and book values, in spite of solid dividends and buy back of own shares. Solstad Offshore ASA Market Value (mill.) 7 Price 18.1 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 1 18 Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Solstad Offshore ASA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oilfield Services/Equipment

61 SSE SSE is a utility company engaged in transmission, distribution and supply of electricity and gas in Great Britain. The company also engages in the production, storage, distribution and supply of gas. SSE has a high-quality asset mix where over 75% of earnings come from preferred areas of regulated networks and renewable generation which are also quasi-regulated. It has limited exposure to higher risk UK retail. Also backed by a solid structural organic pipeline growth, the estimated dividend should grow in real terms for the visible future. Confidence in the dividend growth is backed by a stable operating cash flow. SSE plc Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency GBP Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency GBP Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 217E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Electric Utilities SSE plc ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

62 Stolt-Nielsen Stolt-Nielsen Limited is a leading global provider of bulk-liquid transportation, storage and distribution services through its three largest operating units: Stolt Tankers, Stolthaven Terminals and Stolt Tank Containers. The market for transportation of chemicals is looking promising on the back of ton miles increasing, a consequence of new refineries starting in the Middle East and the US shale boom. Longer term outlook is more uncertain due to a high orderbook of newbuilds, mostly controlled by unexperienced shipping companies and private equity players. The terminal and tank container divisions are generating steady cash flow, while the chemical fleet is more volatile, mostly employed on rolling one year contracts. Stolt has a solid balance sheet, leading strategic positions, long term track record and prudent mgt in addition to returning capital to shareholders by dividends and share buy backs. Stolt-Nielsen Limited Market Value (mill.) Price 12.5 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Stolt-Nielsen Limited ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping

63 Subsea 7 Subsea 7 is one of the world s leading global contractors in seabed-to-surface engineering, construction and services to the offshore industry. The company provides technical solutions to enable the delivery of complex projects in all water depths and challenging environments. The subsea construction market is characterized by few competitors and huge complex projects. Order intake is lumpy and typically late cyclical. Current order backlogs are healthy for execution coming years. Slowing E&P spending is postponing projects and there are currently few tenders out for grab. Historically earnings and return on capital have been decent, but dependent on project execution. Subsea 7 has suspended paying dividends, but are still buying back own shares and debt. Subsea 7 S.A. Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) -169 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Subsea 7 S.A. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oilfield Services/Equipment

64 Tanker Investments Tanker Investment(TIL) is a crude oil tanker company. The fleet trades globally and consists of crude oil tankers in the Aframax and Suezmax segments. The company is a subsidiary of Teekay and operates the fleet in the Teekay Tanker pools. TIL has grown its tanker fleet through a series of transactions acquiring vessels on the water and upgrade them with eco features. The company has an asset play approach, looking to sell the company or the fleet into a expected stronger market. The tanker market looks exciting the next few years, ton miles demand is increasing and the fleet is decreasing. TIL trades at a discount to net asset values in spite of day rates spiking, tanker values rising and buying back own stock. Tanker Investments Ltd. Market Value (mill.) 3 96 Price 13. Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Tanker Investments Ltd. ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Marine Shipping

65 Technip Technip SA engages in the fields of project management, engineering and construction for the energy industry. It offers innovative solutions and technologies to onshore, offshore and subsea facilities. Technip has a strong balance sheet and has been the one of the leading service companies to maintain its backlog through the oil trough. This due to its service diversification and increased focus on vertical integration in the subsea segment, covering seabed to topside. Through the Genesis subsidiary and joint venture with FMC, Forsys, Technip helps improving project economics and offers engineering and design that works as an enabler of SURF-projects. An industry leader within ESG is also reassuring. Technip SA Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency EUR Net debt (mill.) -139 Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oilfield Services/Equipment Technip SA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

66 TGS-NOPEC TGS provides global geo-scientific data products and services to the oil and gas industry. TGS invests in multi-client data worldwide that makes up a data library of seismic imaging. A proven asset-light seismic business model. Develops, manages, owns and controls geophysical and geological data. Global market share of 21%. Strong underlying fundamentals and a highreturn business model. Strong cash flows, net cash and 5% dividend yield. A conservative approach to amortization of seismic data ("over"-amortizing). Mitigates financial risk with pre-funding commitments and has a low fixed cost base. The main risk is a sharp slowdown in E&P spending among oil companies and entry of competitors into the industry. Historically much higher margins and ROCE than peers like Dolphin, PGS, EMGS, Polarcus and Spectrum. TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA Market Value (mill.) Price 113. Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oilfield Services/Equipment TGS-NOPEC ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

67 Total Total SA is one of the leading integrated oil majors operating upstream and downstream on a global basis. Total SA Integrated Oil Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency EUR Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Total is aggressively cutting capex and opex, while production is rising. Production is increasing from start up of major upstream projects. Once completed, capex will be reduced going forward. Normalization of capex would lead to large free cash flow recovery. TOTAL is guiding organic cash coverage of its dividend and capex in 217 assuming $6/bbl and expects its cash break-even to come down to $45/bbl in 219. Risks are centered on execution and cash flow outspend. Total is additionally reasonable valued compared to peers. Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Total SA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

68 TTS Group TTS is an engineering company designing and manufacturing marine and offshore equipment. TTS Group ASA Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) 249 Price 2.88 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 255 Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) 55 FX rate (NOK) E 216E TTS sold its drilling equipment division to Cameron at a huge profit and returned the bigger part of the profit to shareholders. Subsequently remaining part of the group has struggled with challenging markets and poor operational performance. Mgt has been changed and the company has been through a restructuring and downsizing, reducing operational cost by 15 mil. The biggest shareholder Mr Skeie and mgt have increased their shareholding the last year, showing increased confidence in the turnaround. TTS has a opportunistic approach, divisions or the group are likely to take part of future M&A activity. Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) TTS Group ASA ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

69 Valero Energy Valero Energy Corp. is an American refinery that engages in the manufacturing, wholesale marketing and transportation of fuels, petrochemical products, and power. It operates in the US, the UK, Canada, Aruba and Ireland. Valero is benefiting from the refiner cost and crude input advantage, which will support refiner cash flow sustainability, and allow US based refiners to capture additional share of the export market. The company is best positioned to capture the expected discounting of Gulf Coast crudes compared to global benchmarks. Management remains fully committed to maximizing shareholder value, the strong free cash flow generation will allow it to continue buying back stock and raise dividends. Valero is additionally trading at a notable discount to its closest peers (VLO EV/EBITDA 4.6x, MPC 5.1x, PSX 7.3x, TSO 6.8x). Valero Energy Corporation Market Value (mill.) Price Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Valero Energy Corporation ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15 Oil Refining/Marketing

70 Weatherford Weatherford is a large global provider of products and services that span the drilling, evaluation, completion, production and intervention cycles of oil and natural gas wells. The company can provide the industry with extended products and services, more efficient operations, more powerful research and development capabilities and greater geographic diversity. Weatherford has been through an extensive turnaround process including several profit warnings and accounting issues with the SEC. Cost cutting and disvestitures of non core holdings is still ongoing, improving balance sheet and cash flow. The new Weatherford will be more focused with leading market positions in products and services for production of unconvetional oil and gas. The company is well positioned to profit from the US shale boom. More wells drilled per rig and increasing service intensity is beneficiary for the company`s service and product offering. Wells in general is getting more complex and laterals longer. Weatherford International plc Market Value (mill.) 5 43 Price 6.97 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 7 51 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Oilfield Services/Equipment Weatherford International plc ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

71 Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Wilhelmsen Holding(WWI) is the parent company in the Wilhelmsen group. The main activities are transportation and logistical services for cars and high/heavy cargo through Wilhelmsen ASA(72,7% owned) and maritime services through WMS(% owned). Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Class A Marine Shipping Market Value (mill.) Price 134. Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 7 48 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) FX rate (NOK) E 216E Sales (mill.) EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) Net Income (mill.) Price/Earnings Price/Book Value EV/EBIT Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Wilhelmsen has a long term track record of profitable growth and return on capital as well as returning cash to shareholders by dividends. The group is controlled by the Wilhelmsen family through A shares. The management and board are also controlled by the family. The holding company is trading at a 6 substantial discount to sum of the parts in 4 spite of decent results and long term 2 shareholder value creation Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding A ODIN Energi Benchmark 6/25/15

72 Investment Objective Long term value creation We prefer performing companies, with strong long term prospects, available at favourable prices

73 Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price Performance Operating excellence «Doing good business with bad people simply doesn t work» Warren E. Buffet Prospects Strong competitive position «We don t focus at beating the market short term. We want our holdings to beat their competitors long term» Börje Ekholm Price Favourable valuation «The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of a nice price is forgotten» Unknown

74 Om ODIN Energi ODIN Fonder är en aktiv och ansvarsfull fondförvaltare med fokus på långsiktigt värdeskapande. Energiförbruk och global tillväxt går hand i hand även om energieffektivisering kommer dämpa detta sammanhang framöver. Men världen kommer fortsätta att ha ett energibehov från flera olika typer av energikällor. ODIN Energi är en aktivt förvaltad aktiefond som investerar i företag inom energisektorn över hela världen. Fonden har en bred exponering i företag som sysslar med energiproduktion och distribution och fonden kan även inkludera underleverantörer till sådana företag. Fakta om fonden Ansvarig förvaltare Lars Mohagen Förvaltare sedan Referensindex Basvaluta Philadelphia Oil Service Index NOK Förvaltningsavgift 2 % Tecknings-/inlösenavgift % Minsta teckningsbelopp 3 NOK 74

75 Om förvaltaren Förvaltare Lars Mohagen kom till ODIN år 2. Han är civilekonom och auktoriserad finansanalytiker med lång erfarenhet av portföljförvaltning och analys av sjöfarts- och offshoresektorn. Utöver sin mångåriga erfarenhet som portföljförvaltare hos ODIN har han även bred erfarenhet som investerare, aktiemäklare och finansanalytiker. 75

76 Använd våra tjänster Kontrollera innehav, avkastning m.m. Logga in på dina fondsidor hos ODIN Online Sätt dina pengar i arbete Teckna andelar i våra fonder på nätet med BankID Håll dig uppdaterad Anmäl dig till vårt nyhetsbrev Prata med oss kundeservice@odinfond.no

77 Vi påminner om att. Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen, förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om aktiekurserna faller. Fondens värde kan variera kraftigt på grund av dess sammansättning och de förvaltningsmetoder ODIN Fonder använder sig av. Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta eller fullständiga. Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard. Faktablad och informationsbroschyr för fonden finns på

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