Hållbara transporter - vad driver tunga fordon 2030? Haulage Construction Distribution Special purpose Network and services City and suburban Intercity and coach Used vehicles Engines Anders Folkesson, Tekn.Dr. Product Manager Sustainable Solutions
Drivkrafter för hållbara transporter Klimatförändringar Peak Oil Energiförsöjning Luftkvalitet Trängsel Ökat transportbehov
Minskning av lokala emissioner Sker via lagstiftning
Drivkrafter för hållbara transporter Slut på billig olja IEA, WEO 2010
Global warming Effects so far beyond IPCC s worst scenario Rise in temperature Ice loss, Diseases, Rising seas, Fresh water, etc. Changed weather patterns When, How often, Force, etc. Heavier rains Floodings, Landslides, Infrastructure, etc. More evaporation Droughts, Erosion, Deserts, Fires, etc.
Hur tacklar vi den stora utmaningen här och nu? CO 2 från transportsektorn Projected CO2-emissions from road transport in EU Data from TREMOVE
7 Scania s vision CO 2 emissions per tonne-km Engine Rolling resistance Aerodynamics Payload 50% 1. Logistics 2. Driver 3. Vehicle technology 4. Biofuels 50% 1970 2000 2020
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) City Region Intercity Long-haulage Kommersiellt biodrivmedel i stor skala här och nu resp. Framtida möjligheter Kommersialisering (ja/nej) beror på en kombination av bränsleegenskaper, hållbar (miljö/ekonomi) produktion, fordonsaspekter, livslängd/service, infrastruktur, regelverk, volymer Centralt: Kostnadseffektiv CO 2 -reduktion Kommersiellt Det finns säkra kort och jokrar Sannolik framtidslösning - Kostnad Möjlig framtidslösning - Kostnad - Infrastruktur - Övrigt
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) Säkra kort Biodrivmedel Intercity Long-haulage Region City
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) Ethanol (gen 1) City Biogas (CBG) Region Ethanol (gen 1) Biodiesel (gen 1) Intercity Long-haulage Biodiesel (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 1)
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) Säkra kort Hybrider Intercity Long-haulage Region City
Hybrid saving potential 3,000-5,000 litres saved per year - in all cases 25% 15% 5%
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) Ethanol (gen 1) City Biogas (CBG) Hybriddemo Upprampning Mainstream Hybrid with ZEV range Region Ethanol (gen 1) Biodiesel (gen 1) Hybriddemo Upprampning Mainstream Intercity Long-haulage Biodiesel (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 1) Hybriddemo Upprampning Ma
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) City Jokrar 2:a generationens etanol/alkohol från cellulosa Intercity Long-haulage Region Sannolikt framtidsbränsle - Kostnad
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) City Ethanol (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 2) Biogas (CBG) Region Ethanol (gen 1) Biodiesel (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 2) Intercity Long-haulage Biodiesel (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 2)
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) City Jokrar 2:a generationens bränslen från förgasning Intercity Long-haulage Region Möjligt framtidsbränsle - Kostnad - Infrastruktur - Övrigt
Today Interim (2016) Long term (2025+) City Region Ethanol (gen 1) Biogas (CBG) Ethanol (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 2) Methanol DME Biogas (LBG) Ethanol (gen 2) Methanol Intercity Long-haulage Biodiesel (gen 1) Biodiesel (gen 1) Biodiesel (gen 2) DME Biodiesel (gen 2) Ethanol (gen 1) Ethanol (gen 2) DME
90 % of World s biofuel Local and global fuel Many feedstocks & forms Sustainable volume production 3rd party verification Average CO 2 reduction 71 % (EU) Many feedstocks Similar to diesel Fuel quality important Not for infrequent use High and low blends Average CO 2 reduction 38 % (EU) Local waste to fuel Good for local fleets Can be combined with CNG Expensive infrastructure Average CO 2 reduction 73 % (EU) Three commercial biofuels
Ethanol (ED95) Biodiesel (B100) Biogas (CBG) Applications for Heavy transport City buses, waste collectors, distribution trucks Applications for Heavy transport All types of applications, including long-haulage trucks and coaches Applications for Heavy transport City buses, waste collectors Scania has applications for all major biofuels
Slutsatser hållbara transporter 2030 Det finns ingen universallösning! Låginblandning - ja, men agera också med kraft här och nu 70-80% CO 2 -reduktion möjligt redan idag låt inte det bästa bli det godas fiende Le mieux est l ennemi du bien /Voltaire 1764 Energieffektiviseringar införs kontinuerligt när de blir kommersiella, t ex hybrid. Kombineras med förnybara bränslen! Cellulosabaserade biodrivmedel dödar de sista myterna kring biobränslen Nyckeltal: CO 2 -besparing per krona! El i vissa applikationer kanske? Diesel och naturgas (inkl. LNG) finns kvar 2030 Anders Folkesson Product Manager Sustainable Solutions
EU Directive: 10 % biofuels 2020 To count in EU goals, biofuels must meet sustainability criteria: Minimum level of greenhouse gas savings (35%, rising to 50% in 2017, and to 60% in 2018 for new installations) No raw material from high carbon land (wetlands, peatlands, continuously forested areas) No raw material from highly biodiverse land (primary forests, nature protection areas, biodiverse grassland) Other local certification schemes can qualify under EU umbrella Ethanol, biogas and biodiesel can fulfil the EU criteria. EU Targets 2020
Global biofuel production tripled since 2000 90 % of renewable fuel is ethanol 90 % of new investment in biofuels are ethanol 50 % of research grants are ethanol Sustainable biofuels
Big reductions possible here and now! from Annex V of the EU RED directive Biofuel production pathway Default GHG emission saving Sugar beet ethanol 52% Wheat ethanol, process not spec 16% Wheat ethanol, NG as process fuel 47% Wheat ethanol, straw as fuel 69% Considerable reduction of greenhouse gases! Sugar cane ethanol 71% RME (Biodiesel) 38% Waste oil FAME (Biodiesel) 83% Biogas from organic waste 73%
Biofuels 2020-2030 (IEA)