Indikatorer för utvecklingen av de Europeiska energisystemen

Transkript

1 Indikatorer för utvecklingen av de Europeiska energisystemen Filip Johnsson NEPP:s vinterkonferens 2018 Stockholm, 2018 Division of Energy Technology Department of Space, Earth and Environment Chalmers University of Technology Sweden

2 Environment (CO 2 ) Indicators (KPI)

3 Environment (CO 2 ) Global trends Example: Fossil-fuel share Indicators (KPI) Economy and Security of Supply Example: Infrastructure Cross-sectoral integration Example: hydrogen and value of wind Green Pricing - Consumer side Example: Cement and steel

4 Global trends fossil-fuel share Transformative/disruptive transition required! Filled symbols correspond to halving emissions per decade as proposed by Rockström et al., Science, 24 March 2017, Vol 355, Issue 6331 Data from IEA NHRES=Non-hydro renewables Johnsson et al. (submitted)

5 Europe.

6 Infrastructure - Number of sites for thermal units Existing fossil (>50MW) Existing thermal renewable New nuclear New peak Existing nuclear New fossil New thermal renewable No of installations [#] REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP No of installations (from DB) Present Modelled site requirements Green policy Regional policy Climate market Reference Odenberger et al., 2017

7 Infrastructure - Number of sites for thermal units Existing fossil (>50MW) Existing thermal renewable New nuclear New peak Existing nuclear New fossil New thermal renewable No of installations [#] REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP No of installations (from DB) Present Modelled site requirements Green policy Regional policy Climate market Reference Odenberger et al., 2017

8 Infrastructure - Number of sites for thermal units Existing fossil (>50MW) Existing thermal renewable New nuclear New peak Existing nuclear New fossil New thermal renewable No of installations [#] REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP No of installations (from DB) Present Modelled site requirements Green policy Regional policy Climate market Reference Odenberger et al., 2017

9 Infrastructure - Number of sites for thermal units Existing fossil (>50MW) Existing thermal renewable New nuclear New peak Existing nuclear New fossil New thermal renewable No of installations [#] 4000 Peak power REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP REF CM RP GP No of installations (from DB) Present Modelled site requirements Green policy Regional policy Climate market Reference Odenberger et al., 2017

10 Cross-sectoral integration IRON & STEEL MAKING HOT STRIP MILL FABRICATION Vehicles Cars Trucks Other transport Steel slab By-products Hot rolled coil/sheet Industrial equipment Machinery Electrical Cold rolled coil/sheet COLD ROLLING Coated coil/sheet Construction Infrastructure Heavy plate Steel slabs Buildings Fabrication scrap Metal goods Packaging PLATE MILL Appliances Other Rootzén and Johnsson (2017)

11 Cross-sectoral integration Variation management strategies required for maximizing the value of wind and solar PV Shifting Absorbing Complementing Electricity Electricity Reduce curtailment and peak power More even costs on diurnal basis Electricity Fuel and heat Reduce curtailment Fewer low cost events Fuel Electricity Reduce peak power More even costs on yearly basis Batteries Power to heat Flexible thermal generation Load shifting Electrofuels Reservoir hydropower Pumped hydro Power to gas (hydrogen) Göransson, L., Johnsson, F. (submitted)

12 Hydrogen steel making value of wind

13 Cross-sectoral integration Variation management strategies required for maximizing the value of wind and solar PV Shifting Absorbing Complementing Electricity Electricity Reduce curtailment and peak power More even costs on diurnal basis Electricity Fuel and heat Reduce curtailment Fewer low cost events Fuel Electricity Reduce peak power More even costs on yearly basis Batteries Power to heat Flexible thermal generation Load shifting Electrofuels Reservoir hydropower Pumped hydro Power to gas (hydrogen) Göransson, L., Johnsson, F. (submitted)

14 The value of wind power without variation management wind power share of annual electricity demand The value factor (0-1): ratio of the production weighted marginal cost of electricity to the time-weighted average Göransson, L., Johnsson, F. (forthcoming)

15 The value of wind power with variation management Hydrogen for 21 steel plants with 7 days storage wind power share of annual electricity demand The value factor (0-1): ratio of the production weighted marginal cost of electricity to the time-weighted average Göransson, L., Johnsson, F. (forthcoming)

16 Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 Green Pricing - Consumer side Handel med utsläppsrätter EU-ETS < 10 /ton CO 2

17 Nya sätt att prissätta koldioxid behövs Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 EU-ETS < 10 /ton CO 2 Rootzén and Johnsson, (2015) Se

18 Global trends Indicators (KPI) Enormous challenge to ramp up RES and reduce fossil fuel use Fossil-fuel strategies are required! Economy and Security of Supply Enough sites for thermal plants peak power sites may be a challenge Cross-sectoral integration Can increase value of wind (and VRE) Green Pricing - Consumer side EU-ETS will not impose investments in transformative measures Yet, small price increase if allocating cost for these measures to consumer side

19 Varför ta ledningen i klimatarbetet? Om världen rör sig i enlighet med Parisavtalet att begränsa jordens uppvärmning till väl under 2ºC

20 Varför ta ledningen i klimatarbetet? Om världen rör sig i enlighet med Parisavtalet att begränsa jordens uppvärmning till väl under 2ºC Mycket stor efterfrågan på koldioxidneutrala produkter och tjänster