Global Carbon Law Pathway to Paris

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1 Global Carbon Law Pathway to Paris Fossilfritt Sverige 6:e Februari, 2018 Professor Johan Rockström Executive Director, Stockholm Resilience Centre Professor of Environmental Science, Stockholm University Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

2 8 37 billion tonnes 2% growth In 2017, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry will reach around 37bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. Total emissions from all sources: approx 41GtCO2 Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017

3 8 Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 20

4 but atmospheric concentrations continue to rise Le Quéré et al Global Carbon Budget 2017

5 8 The land and ocean absorb around half the emissions Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 20

6 In 50 years we tipped from 10,000 years Holocene to the Anthropocene What we do next 50 years will determine next 10,000 years Image: Mattias Klum

7 2 Earth is approaching TIPPING POINTS due to human pressures Global average surface temperatures during the last 10,000 years have been remarkably stable. The tipping elements at risk within the Paris range of C global warming are shown within the inset. Schellnhuber, H.J., Rahmstorf, S., Winkelmann, R., Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris. Nat. Clim. Chang., 6,

8 The Carbon Law A Moore s law for climate stability Photo: Google

9 The Carbon Law

10 Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

11 Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

12 Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

13 Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

14 Moore s Law Enabling new devices with higher functionality and complexity while controlling power, cost, and size Strained Silicon Hi-K Metal Gate 3D Transistors 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm 32 nm 22 nm 14 nm 10 nm 7 nm 14

15 A Global Carbon Law Halving Emissions Every Decade 40GtCO 2 20GtCO 2 10GtCO 2 5GtCO

16 Global Carbon Law is consistent with Paris Agreement Individual Family Community Halve Emissions double prosperity Company Industry Country City Region By: J Falk, O Gaffney

17 Global Carbon Law Trajectory

18 We are already on the right trajectory Renewables: Share of primary energy Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

19 it is desirable nxt gen exponential solutions a new economy welfare for all.. health safety hope for young people wellbeing breath clean air biodiversity recovery at land and sea.. Rockström, Falk, Gaffney

20 SVERIGE

21 The World In 2050 Degree of Global Sustainable Develpment Radical transformative pathways to meet the SDGs within planetary boundaries Planetary Boundaries Year

22 Sverige

23 it is achievable J Falk

24 Paris agreement alignment J Falk

25 Sweden total emissions not including consumption Rockström, Falk

26 Sveriges klimatledarskap? SCB:s nya kvartalsstatistik över växthusgasutsläpp är en dyster läsning. För tredje kvartalet i rad ökar utsläppen, och nu snabbare än BNP-tillväxten (SCB, Fores) Bild: Föräldravrålet

27 Vad måste ske? Kritiskt antal företag, städer, kommuner och människor ansluter sig till genomförande av Parisavtalet - halverar, rapporterar, influerar kvartalsvis mätning1 som underlag för åtgärder från alla parter och gemensam digital samarbetsyta Skarpa, modiga styrmedel för att tippa utvecklingen åt rätt håll krävs nu 1inklusive konsumtion

28 Exponential Climate Action Carbon Law Accelerator

29

30 Incremental to Exponential TIPPING

31 Exponential Climate Action the Carbon Law Accelerator COP23 DAVOS ENERGY MINISTERIAL CLIMATE ACTION SUMMIT BILATERALS WITH PRINCIPALS ROADMAP WORKSHOPS November 2017 January 2018 May 2018 September 2018 O Gaffney, J Falk

32 EXPONENTIAL CLIMATE ACTION the carbon law accelerator 1. Global Carbon Law the new rule of thumb 2. Exponential Solutions Roadmap Planetary Stewards CONTACT Johan Falk Owen Gaffney