ODIN Fastighet Årskommentar 2015
2 Fondens portfölj
ODIN Fastighet december 2015 Avkastning senaste månaden och i år Fonden hade en avkastning på 1,1 procent under den senaste månaden. Avkastningen för fondens referensindex under samma tidsperiod var 3,0 procent. Fonden har haft en avkastning på 17,4 procent i år. Avkastningen för fondens referensindex under samma tidsperiod var 26,3 procent. Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och i år Senaste månaden har vi inte gjort några större förändringar i portföljen. De största förändringarna i portföljen i år är köp av aktier i Balder, Sagax, Victoria Park och Hemfosa samt försäljning av aktier i Citycon, Norwegian Property, Sponda, Olav Thon och Castellum. Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och i år Den bästa bidragsgivaren till denna månads avkastning var Balder och Sagax. De bolag som bidrog minst denna månad var Entra och Diös. De bästa bidragsgivarna i år är Balder och Sagax. De bolag som bidragit minst i år är Wallenstam och Entra.
ODIN Fastighet december 2015 Prissättning av fonden Fonden prissätts till 15,2 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat. Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 3,0 procent. Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts fonden till 1,4 gånger. Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 8,4 procent.
ODIN Fastighet 2015 2015 blev ytterligare ett bra år för ODIN Fastighet. Avkastningen för året blev 17,4 procent. De aktier som bidrog mest till avkastningen i fonden är Balder, Sagax och Wihlborg.. Värdeskapningen i bolagen är främst driven av hyresökningar, färdigställande av utvecklingsprojekt, förvärv, färre vakanser och lägre finansieringskostnader. De låga räntorna har även under 2015 bidragit till minskade avkastningskrav och ökat värde på fastigheterna. Dock har aktiekurserna på börsnoterade fastigheter bara följt intjäningsökningen och på så sätt har aktiemarknaden inte tyngts av det lägre ränteläget. ODIN Fastighet hade vid årsskiftet 74 procent av portföljen investerad i svenska värdepapper medan 9 procent respektive 9 procent var investerade i Norge och Finland. Under året utgjordes de största förändringarna i fonden av aktieköp i Balder, Sagax, Victoria Park och Hemfosa, medan vi sålde av aktier i Norwegian Property, Citycon, Sponda, Castellum och Olav Thon. Vi letar efter följande när vi investerar: 1. Stabil och ökande intjäning per aktie 2. Förnuftig belåning, såväl i förhållande till intjäning, kassaflöde som fastighetsvärde 3. Förnuftig sammansättning av hyresgäster Dessa ska vara solida. Vi föredrar lång löptid på kontrakten, men en del växlingar är också viktigt för marknadsjusteringen av hyresnivåerna. 4. En portfölj med fastigheter som inte riskerar att stå tomma när kontrakten löper ut 5. En ledning som arbetar för att skapa värden genom att utveckla fastigheterna Ett lågt pris på aktien i förhållande till intjäning, kassaflöde och risk Trots att ODIN Fastighet mandat även inkluderar entreprenörer och renodlade fastighetsutvecklare har vi beslutat att inte investera i sådana, utan att enbart fokusera på fastighetsägare. Den främsta anledningen till detta är att vi uppfattar risken som lägre här samtidigt som vi ser en fortsatt attraktiv prissättningen och ett gynnsamt räntescenario.
ODIN Eiendom i 2015 ODIN Fastighet har som målsättning att ge konkurrenskraftig avkastning i förhållande till risken i de bolag som vi investerar i. Generella svängningar på börsen påverkar prissättningen av portföljen, men enligt vår mening är dessa svängningar ofta betydligt större än svängningarna av värdena i portföljen. Vid sådana tillfällen försöker vi att utnyttja svängningarna för att skapa balans i portföljen.
Stark fastighetsmarknad under 2015 Marknaden för näringsfastigheter i Norden har varit stark även under 2015. Transaktionsvärdet är nästan i nivå med rekordåren 2006 och 2007. Tillväxten i volymen från 2014 till 2015 drivs av den norska marknaden. Det är i synnerhet Citycons förvärv av köpcentren i Sektor Gruppen som ligger bakom ökningen. Enligt Newsec har avkastningskraven fortsatt att sjunka i de flesta stora städerna i Norden 2015. Samtidigt är utsikterna för hyresuppgångar positiva på såväl kontors- som köpcentermarknaden under åren som kommer.
Fortsatt låga räntor De långa räntorna ligger fortsatt på historiskt låga nivåer. I Sverige och i euroområdet har räntorna varit stabila under 2015 medan nivån sjunkit ytterligare i Norge. Ett lågt ränteläge är positivt för fastighetssegmentet eftersom bolagen får lägre finansieringskostnader och tillgångarna en högre värdering. På grund av de stadigt lägre oljepriserna har norsk ekonomi stött på patrull. BNP-ökningen beräknas bli lägre än under 2014 medan inflationen sannolikt ökar mot bakgrund av den försvagade valutan. Arbetslösheten förväntas också stiga. I Sverige är utsikterna betydligt ljusare. BNP-ökningen beräknas bli över tre procent under 2016, vilket är den högsta siffran sedan 2010. Den privata konsumtionen förväntas också utvecklas positivt. Den finska ekonomin har redan varit svag i flera år och även om vissa förbättringar är att vänta så är nivåerna fortsatt låga.
ODIN Fastighet, utsikter 2016 Även under 2016 är utsikterna för fastighetsmarknaden positiva. De ihållande låga räntorna kommer att bidra till fortsatt starka transaktionsvolymer framgent. Dessutom tror vi att tillväxten i svensk ekonomi kommer att ta sig uttryck i ökad efterfrågan på fastigheter inom de flesta segment. Utsikterna i Norge och Finland är mer krävande. Utbudsökningen på fastighetsmarknaden i Norden är relativt begränsad. Newsec räknar med 0-2 procents ökning av byggandet av kontorslokaler i huvudstäderna. Vi tror att de bolag som kan uppvisa hög tillväxt och god avkastning på eget kapital i kombination med måttlig finansiell risk kommer att bli vinnare på sikt. Balder, Sagax och Wihlborgs är de bolag som uppfyller dessa kriterier bäst varför de också är de största positionerna i fonden. En betydande andel av fonden är investerad i Hemfosa som vi tror kommer att uppvisa liknande egenskaper. Bolaget har dock begränsad historik då det börsnoterades så sent som för två år sedan. Sammantaget tror vi att balansen mellan utbud och efterfrågan på fastighetsmarknaden kommer att bidra till bra värdeökning på fastighetsmarknaden genom färre vakanser och ökade hyresnivåer. Vi ställer oss därför positiva till utvecklingen av nordiska börsnoterade fastigheter även under 2016.
Nyckeltal och nyheter från portföljen - presenterat på engelska
Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (SEK) ODIN Eiendom Index Historical Return % (SEK)* Last Month YTD 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y Since inception Portfolio 1,11 17,43 17,43 20,97 12,96 11,09 16,62 Benchmark 3,04 26,34 26,34 25,89 14,58 10,52 14,05 Exess Return -1,93-8,91-8,91-4,92-1,62 0,57 2,58 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized
Annual returns last 10 years
Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE Hemfosa Fastigheter AB 9,5% Sweden Real Estate Management & 11,0 12,3 4,8 5,0 1,2 11,2 Fastighets Balder AB Class B 9,4% Sweden Real Estate Management & 23,0 20,7 0,0 0,0 1,8 8,0 Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB 9,1% Sweden Real Estate Management & 13,7 14,7 3,0 3,1 1,6 11,8 AB Sagax Class B 9,0% Sweden Real Estate Management & 19,8 16,3 1,4 1,7 2,5 12,5 Wallenstam AB Class B 4,6% Sweden Real Estate Management & 35,8 36,0 1,8 2,1 1,5 4,3 Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B 4,6% Sweden Real Estate Management & 19,6 18,6 2,7 2,9 1,4 6,9 Sponda Oyj 4,5% Finland Real Estate Management & 10,9 11,2 4,8 5,1 0,8 6,9 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap 4,5% Norway Real Estate Management & 14,8 13,6 1,3 1,4 0,9 6,2 Fabege AB 4,5% Sweden Real Estate Management & 33,1 27,0 2,4 2,5 1,5 4,5 Technopolis Oyj 4,4% Finland Real Estate Management & 8,5 8,4 4,2 4,2 0,7 8,7 Topp 10 63,9% 15,5 15,3 2,5 2,7 1,3 8,5 ODIN Eiendom 16,1 15,2 2,7 3,0 1,4 8,4 * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares
Current holdings
Share price performance*, year to date (Sorted by weight in portfolio) *) Share price performance for equities included in the benchmark. Equities not included in the benchmark are calculated from portfolio figures.
Contribution, year to date
Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years Portfolio Index Active share 0,50 Sharpe ratio 1) 2,09 Standard Deviation 2) 13,34 2,09 15,78 Portfolio Alpha 1,52 Beta 0,81 Tracking error 4,86 Information ratio -1,04 1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate. 2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.
Pricing - Global Equities (MSCI World)
OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast
ODIN Fastighet - 31/12/2015 Security (Company) Currency Market Number of shares Market price Cost price Market value Unrealised gain (loss) Local currency NOK 1000 NOK 1000 NOK 1000 % of assets under management Atrium Ljungberg AB ser. B SEK Stockholm 298 706 131,70 31 591 41 177 9 585 4,5 Balder B SEK Stockholm 390 388 209,00 39 710 85 401 45 692 9,3 Castellum SEK Stockholm 311 934 120,70 33 075 39 409 6 334 4,3 Diös Fastigheter SEK Stockholm 602 991 61,25 26 549 38 658 12 109 4,2 Entra NOK Oslo 535 503 71,25 39 403 38 155-1 248 4,2 Fabege SEK Stockholm 277 324 140,10 20 702 40 668 19 966 4,4 Hemfosa Fastigheter SEK Stockholm 877 025 94,25 66 344 86 520 20 176 9,4 Hufvudstaden A SEK Stockholm 319 655 120,50 27 160 40 317 13 157 4,4 Klövern Pref SEK Stockholm 131 329 281,50 41 808 38 696-3 113 4,2 Kungsleden SEK Stockholm 627 404 60,75 30 449 39 895 9 446 4,3 Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap NOK Oslo 287 733 142,00 34 893 40 858 5 965 4,5 Sagax B SEK Stockholm 1 090 826 69,75 54 452 79 638 25 186 8,7 Sponda EUR Helsinki 1 089 390 3,94 34 901 41 330 6 429 4,5 Technopolis EUR Helsinki 1 128 737 3,73 37 312 40 540 3 229 4,4 Victoria Park B SEK Stockholm 1 052 786 15,10 14 009 16 639 2 631 1,8 Wallenstam B SEK Stockholm 587 212 68,40 42 153 42 041-112 4,6 Wihlborgs SEK Stockholm 461 662 171,00 54 819 82 631 27 812 9,0 Total Financials 629 329 832 572 203 243 90,7 Total portfolio 629 329 832 572 203 243 90,7
Investments - ODIN Fastighet
Atrium Ljungberg Company description: Atrium Ljungberg is one of Sweden s largest listed property companies. The focus is on owning, developing and managing properties, principally in the retail and office sectors. The ambition is to develop areas into full-service environments which are sustainable and attractive in the longer term. The company has around 1.1m square meters, of which around half is retail exposure Performance - last 5 years 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B Real Estate Development Why invested? We like the company s focus on being invested in all property segments in growth areas such as Uppsala. The company creates value both through having a larger overall property market share in its key areas, but also through extensive building activity. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) 16,708 Price 129.30 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 11,903 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 28,611 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,623 2,018 1,836 2,364 2,313 2,107 2,146 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,344 1,387 Net Income (mill.) 916 905 1,031 1,108 645 1,925 812 Price/Earnings 21.8 9.8 14.5 8.0 24.1 18.9 18.0 Price/Book Value 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 EV/EBIT - - - - - 22.3 22.4 Return on Equity (%) 10.5 9.7 10.4 10.4 5.7 6.9 7.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 3.3 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.0
Balder Company description: Fastighets AB Balder is a listed property company which shall meet the needs of different customer groups for premises and housing based on local support. Balder's real estate holdings are valued at SEK 39.9 billion at the end of September 2015 and are marketed through the Din Bostad and Balder brands. The company has around 2.1m square meters, of which around half is residental exposure Performance - last 5 years 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Fastighets Balder AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Fastighets Balder AB Class B Real Estate Development Why invested? We like the company s exceptional growth and opportunistic strategy. The residental market is very positive at the moment as building activity is too low to offset population growth. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preferance shares. Balder does not pay dividend, but as long as the company continue to invest in profitable growth, this is not a worry for us. Market Value (mill.) 32,697 Price 195.30 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 21,922 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 54,619 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,379 1,536 1,715 1,944 2,600 2,705 5,259 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 2,224 3,204 Net Income (mill.) 1,338 812 1,162 1,738 3,128 2,746 1,474 Price/Earnings 5.0 4.4 5.7 6.7 8.8 21.7 19.5 Price/Book Value 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 EV/EBIT - - - - - 30.5 22.7 Return on Equity (%) 33.6 14.3 15.5 17.8 24.6 8.0 7.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Castellum Company description: 250 200 Performance - last 5 years Castellums operations are concentrated to the attractive growth markets of Stockholm, Göteborg, Mälardalen, Östra Götaland and the Öresund region. The company grow along with the requirements of both new and existing customers and we actively participate in the development of cities and city neighbourhoods. The company has around 3.5m square meters, of which the majority is office properties 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Castellum AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Castellum AB Real Estate Development Why invested? We like the company s value creation through building and acquiring properties with high vacancy, and utilizing its large customer base to enhance value. The company has medium financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) 20,520 Price 119.30 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 18,399 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 38,919 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 2,760 2,919 3,073 3,253 3,321 3,295 3,431 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 2,116 2,209 Net Income (mill.) 1,964 711 1,473 1,707 1,211 1,902 1,518 Price/Earnings 12.7 8.5 21.4 7.6 18.6 13.2 12.6 Price/Book Value 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 EV/EBIT - - - - - 19.6 18.8 Return on Equity (%) 18.9 6.4 12.7 13.6 9.0 10.1 10.2 Dividend Yield (%) 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.5 4.0 4.3
Diös Fastigheter Company description: 250 200 Performance - last 5 years Diös has real estate holdings with a value of SEK 12 billion, making it northern Sweden's largest private real estate company. We operate in a stable market from Borlänge in the south to Luleå in the north. Its portfolio contains a diverse collection of properties in terms of price range and type, which allows Diös to be flexible to the clients' needs. The company has around 1.5m square meters, which is diversified through most property segments. 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Dioes Fastigheter AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Dioes Fastigheter AB Real Estate Development Why invested? We like the company s growth and strong market position in the northern part of Sweden. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, although it has been reduced to a more moderate level than earlier. In addition, the company pays a very competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) 4,558 Price 61.00 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 7,592 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 12,150 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 499 601 1,331 1,310 1,313 1,311 1,404 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 712 769 Net Income (mill.) 230 182 428 323 297 391 463 Price/Earnings 14.0 3.9 9.6 7.0 17.2 10.3 8.2 Price/Book Value 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 EV/EBIT - - - - - 18.1 16.5 Return on Equity (%) 17.2 8.6 14.7 10.2 9.0 12.5 14.8 Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 6.0 3.1 5.0 4.0 5.2 5.5
Entra Company description: 110 105 Performance - last 5 years Entra is one of Norway's leading real estate companies. The company is an industry leader in developing and managing energy efficient buildings. The portfolio consists of flexible and environmentally friendly, high-quality office buildings in central locations close to public transportation hubs. The company has around 1.2m square meters, of which the majority are office related. 100 95 90 85 80 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Entra ASA OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Entra ASA Real Estate Development Why invested? We like the company s long contracts with public tenants. This provides a higher visibility than most other real estate companies. We also believe there is earnings upside through cutting cost further. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Market Value (mill.) 13,229 Price 72.00 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 14,449 Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) 27,677 FX rate (NOK) 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,510 1,468 1,533 1,684 2,018 1,758 1,844 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,437 1,489 Net Income (mill.) 735 565 704 453 1,027 2,098 759 Price/Earnings - - - - 13.5 17.1 13.8 Price/Book Value - - - - 1.7 1.1 1.0 EV/EBIT - - - - - 18.3 18.0 Return on Equity (%) 11.1 8.0 9.3 5.8 11.0 6.2 7.5 Dividend Yield (%) - - - - 0.0 4.2 4.6
Fabege Company description: 300 250 Performance - last 5 years Fabege is a leading, listed property company with a principal focus on the development and management of proprietary properties in the Stockholm region. The property portfolio comprises 80 commercial properties and Fabege offers modern premises, mainly for use as offices but also for retail and other purposes. The company has around 1.1m square meters, of which the majority is office related. 200 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Fabege AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Fabege AB Real Estate Development Why invested? We like the company s strong focus on the Stockholm region, and focus on growth areas such as Solna. We also like the company s value creation through expanding the portfolio through building activities. The company has medium financial gearing compared to the sector average. In addition, the company pays a moderate dividend. Market Value (mill.) 92,969 Price 1056.00 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 19,494 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 112,463 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 2,014 1,818 1,893 2,089 2,112 1,998 2,196 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,361 1,517 Net Income (mill.) 1,697 1,141-88 1,530 1,738 2,192 703 Price/Earnings 9.8 6.6-6.1 18.4 31.9 26.6 Price/Book Value 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 EV/EBIT - - - - - 32.1 29.4 Return on Equity (%) 16.0 9.9-0.8 12.8 13.2 4.6 5.5 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 5.6 4.6 3.9 3.0 2.4 2.6
Hemfosa Company description: 250 200 Performance - last 5 years Hemfosa Fastigheter is a Swedish property company active in two principal areas of operation. Firstly, long-term management and development of primarily community service properties and, secondly, transaction of properties. Our approach enables the company to create a balanced property portfolio that generates stable and high yields, thus enabling it to develop and add value to even more properties.the company has around 2.5m square meters, of which the majority is office related. Why invested? We like the company s high growth, focus on long contracts with public tenants and transactin focus. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preferance shares. In addition, the company pays a very competitive dividend. 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Hemfosa Fastigheter AB Hemfosa Fastigheter AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 10,778 Price 82.00 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 15,166 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 25,944 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 #N/A 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) - 1,297 1,594 1,584 1,683 2,440 2,539 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,698 1,671 Net Income (mill.) - 667 923 231 964 1,851 1,034 Price/Earnings - - - - 28.0 9.8 10.9 Price/Book Value - - - - 1.6 1.1 1.1 EV/EBIT - - - - - 16.7 17.2 Return on Equity (%) - - 53.8 10.2 17.4 11.2 9.7 Dividend Yield (%) - - - - 0.0 5.4 5.7
Hufvudstaden Company description: 250 200 Performance - last 5 years Hufvudstaden provides office and retailing premises in prime locations in Stockholm and Gothenburg. The Company was founded in 1915 and is today one of Sweden's largest listed property companies and one of the strongest brands in the country in the property sector. The company has around 400k square meters, of which all is office and retail. 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Hufvudstaden AB Class A OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? We like the company s prime property portfolio. Hufuvdstaden has properties in very attractive locations in Stockholm and Gothenburg, including the NK shopping centers in both cities. This provides lower risk, but one can also experience higher volatility in general rent levels. The company has very low financial gearing compared to the sector average, In addition, the company pays a moderate dividend. Hufvudstaden AB Class A Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 25,764 Price 118.60 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 5,176 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 30,939 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,392 1,437 1,542 1,640 1,669 1,595 1,624 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,118 1,160 Net Income (mill.) 1,733 1,435 1,939 1,876 2,001 2,063 816 Price/Earnings 19.9 7.5 13.9 8.0 11.7 27.8 27.5 Price/Book Value 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 EV/EBIT - - - - - 27.7 26.5 Return on Equity (%) 15.9 12.0 14.7 12.9 12.5 4.9 4.8 Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.7
Klövern Company description: 250 200 Performance - last 5 years Klövern is a real estate company committed, with closeness and commitment, to offering customers efficient premises in selected growth regions. Our vision is to create environments for future enterprise. This requires active construction of city neighbourhoods, districts and other business clusters. The company has around 2.8m square meters, of which more than half is office related. 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Klovern AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Klovern AB Real Estate Development Why invested? We like the company s high growth, but we are not comfortable with the high financial leverage, which is among the highest in the real estate sector. We have therefore invested in the preferance shares, which gives a very comptitive dividend and significantly lower risk than the ordinary shares. Market Value (mill.) 12,865 Price 8.90 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 18,584 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 31,449 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,244 1,364 1,948 2,228 2,525 2,715 2,892 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,684 1,793 Net Income (mill.) 605 465 339 808 1,164 1,789 913 Price/Earnings 13.6 7.1 9.1 11.7 0.8 11.5 10.2 Price/Book Value 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.7 EV/EBIT - - - - - 20.1 18.8 Return on Equity (%) 14.0 10.1 5.9 11.6 13.5 6.5 7.2 Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 5.8 4.9 5.3 36.6 3.9 4.5
Kungsleden Company description: Kungsleden is one of Sweden s largest listed property companies focusing on long-term ownership, active management, improving and developing commercial properties in chosen growth regions. The cluster strategy, means that owning several properties within a defined area. The company has around 2.6m square meters, of which virtually all is office and logistics. Performance - last 5 years 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Kungsleden AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? We like the company s new strategy, which is much more focused on large property market share in defined growing areas. The company has moderate financial gearing compared to the sector average, even after loosing recent tax case. In addition, the company pays a competitive dividend. Kungsleden AB Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 11,284 Price 62.00 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 9,875 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 21,159 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 2,321 2,882 2,110 2,242 2,200 2,247 2,550 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,386 1,590 Net Income (mill.) 841 638 352 862-659 1,417 916 Price/Earnings 38.4 7.4-3.7 11.5 14.0 11.6 Price/Book Value 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 EV/EBIT - - - - - 19.9 17.3 Return on Equity (%) 11.7 8.5 4.6 10.7-7.5 7.6 8.7 Dividend Yield (%) 4.3 4.3 7.3 2.3 2.1 3.3 4.4
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap 250 Performance - last 5 years Company description: Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap was founded in 1982 and listed in 1983. Focus has all the way been on shopping centers in Norway, but last year the company also expanded into Sweden. The company has around 1.5m square meters, of which most is retail, but also some office. 200 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Why invested? Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR We like the excellent historic growth and strong return on investments. Although shopping centers face a challenging trend as online shopping is continuing to gain momentum. Through the financial crisis retail sales shown a resilient trend, hence, we are not too concerned with less optimistic outlook for Norwegian economy. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average. Dividend is quite low, but we are not concerned with this as cash flows are reinvested with healthy returns. Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 15,062 Price 141.50 Price currency NOK Net debt (mill.) 16,364 Reporting currency NOK Enterprise Value (mill.) 31,426 FX rate (NOK) 1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 2,647 2,834 2,946 3,055 3,020 3,175 3,287 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 2,036 2,075 Net Income (mill.) 1,324 724 1,119 1,648 1,170 2,727 1,194 Price/Earnings 11.0 6.7 14.6 5.9 11.5 14.7 13.5 Price/Book Value 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 EV/EBIT - - - - - 14.7 14.2 Return on Equity (%) 15.0 7.4 10.5 13.6 8.7 6.2 6.3 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4
Sagax Company description: Sagax is a property company whose business concept is to invest in commercial properties, primarily in the warehouse and light industry segment. The company has around 1.8m square meters, of which more or less all is in the warehouse/logistic segment. Performance - last 5 years 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Why invested? AB Sagax Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR We like the company s high growth, which has been among the best in the sector. Sagax also have long lease contracts providing good earnings visibility. Management has a great track-record, and has generated large values for many years. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preference shares, but as this has been reduced lately, the company has also started to pay a small dividend. AB Sagax Class B Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 13,066 Price 70.25 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 8,380 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 21,446 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 669 789 826 929 1,098 1,284 1,414 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,041 1,164 Net Income (mill.) 492 122 372 777 747 1,058 831 Price/Earnings - - - - 16.4 19.9 16.4 Price/Book Value - - - 1.1 1.7 2.5 2.2 EV/EBIT - - - - - 22.1 19.6 Return on Equity (%) 27.4 5.5 14.8 23.8 18.1 12.5 13.3 Dividend Yield (%) - - - 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.7
Sponda Company description: Sponda is a finnish property company established in 1991 by the Bank of Finland to take over the Finnish and foreign real estate properties held by the Skopbank Group together with its sizeable equity portfolio. The company has around 1.2m square meters, spread across several segments, but with office as the largest part. Performance - last 5 years 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Sponda Oyj OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? Sponda has been going through a transformation, which has lasted several years already, where the goal is to be more focused on prime offices in and around Helsinki. As such, the Russian and logistics assets has to some extent been divested, although Sponda is not yet completed with the process. The company has moderate financial gearing compared to the sector average, even after loosing recent tax case. In addition, the company pays a very competitive dividend. Sponda Oyj Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 1,076 Price 3.80 Price currency EUR Net debt (mill.) 1,805 Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill.) 2,881 FX rate (NOK) 9.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 232 249 265 265 252 230 238 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 150 150 Net Income (mill.) 121 109 106 95 69 100 95 Price/Earnings 16.2 7.1 10.0 9.5 9.8 10.6 10.9 Price/Book Value 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 EV/EBIT - - - - - 17.7 17.8 Return on Equity (%) 10.4 9.3 9.0 7.6 5.2 6.9 6.5 Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 4.8 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2.
Technopolis Company description: Technopolis provides the best addresses for companies to operate and succeed in five countries in the Nordic-Baltic region. The company develops, owns and operates a chain of 20 smart business parks that combine services with flexible and modern office space. The company has around 730m square meters, which is mostly business parks. Performance - last 5 years 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Technopolis Oyj OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Why invested? The company has shown strong growth the last years. However, several equity issues have diluted shareholders, resulting is flat development in results on a per share basis. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, but has been able to pay a competitive dividend. The share trades at a very low valuation, but we believe management needs to improve track record to achieve a higher pricing of the shares. Technopolis Oyj Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 387 Price 3.63 Price currency EUR Net debt (mill.) 868 Reporting currency EUR Enterprise Value (mill.) 1,254 FX rate (NOK) 9.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 83 94 107 127 166 169 169 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 87 89 Net Income (mill.) 23 47 26 26-16 42 51 Price/Earnings 16.3 4.7 9.0 17.9 11.9 8.1 8.1 Price/Book Value 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 EV/EBIT - - - - - 14.1 13.9 Return on Equity (%) 8.3 14.9 7.3 5.9-3.5 8.9 8.5 Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 5.1 5.1 4.1 2.7 4.4 4.4.
Victoria Park Company description: 250 200 Performance - last 5 years Victoria Park is a listed property company on the NASDAQ Stockholm Mid Cap focuses on residential properties, with the business areas of investment properties and lifestyle accommodation. With a longterm management of work and social responsibility for safer living Victoria Park create and process values in a growing residential property portfolio in growth areas in Sweden. The company has 708k square meters, purely residental. 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Victoria Park AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Victoria Park AB Class B Real Estate Development Why invested? The company has shown strong growth the last years. The residental market is very positive at the moment as building activity is too low to offset population growth. Victoria Park generates values also through refurbishing of apartments, yielding excellent returns. The company has high financial gearing compared to the sector average, including preference shares. Market Value (mill.) 3,615 Price 14.90 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 3,826 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 7,441 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 133 26 247 130 299 621 755 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 273 339 Net Income (mill.) -22-23 60 410 310 1,068 375 Price/Earnings - - - - - 25.9 19.2 Price/Book Value - - - - 0.9 1.3 1.1 EV/EBIT - - - - - 26.7 22.4 Return on Equity (%) -6.6-18.9 42.3 76.3 25.4 4.9 5.9 Dividend Yield (%) - - - - 0.0 1.0 1.4.
Wallenstam Company description: 300 250 Performance - last 5 years Wallenstam is a company that does more than just manage buildings. We work in close collaboration with cities to create safe, secure places and neighbourhoods that people love to live in, work in and visit. Wallenstam builds, develops and manages properties, mainly in Stockholm and Gothenburg. The company has around 1m square meters across several segments, of which residental is the largest part. 200 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Wallenstam AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Wallenstam AB Class B Real Estate Development Why invested? The company has shown strong growth the last years. The residental market is very positive at the moment as building activity is too low to offset population growth. In addition Wallenstam has an interesting position within generation and trading of renewable energy. The company has low financial gearing compared to the sector average, and pays a small dividend. Market Value (mill.) 20,881 Price 68.35 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 14,997 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 35,878 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,496 1,600 1,768 1,755 2,918 1,123 1,232 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,061 1,030 Net Income (mill.) 1,572 736 1,927 1,277 585 2,287 682 Price/Earnings 7.8 11.7 11.0 8.0 39.3 36.3 36.5 Price/Book Value 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 EV/EBIT - - - - - 36.2 38.1 Return on Equity (%) 17.2 7.3 17.4 10.3 4.5 4.3 4.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 2.0.
Wihlborgs Company description: 250 200 Performance - last 5 years Wihlborgs' property portfolio consists of commerical properties in the Öresund region, located in Malmö, Helsingborg, Lund and Copenhagen. The property portfolio is constantly enhanced by acquisition, development and sale of properties. Since 2005 the Company has grown from 197 properties with a market value of 7.9 billion to 270 properties with a value of 26.7 billion as per 30 September 2015. The company has around 1.6m square meters, of which the vast majority is office and retail Why invested? We like the growth Wihlborgs has generated through acquisitions and development of properties in the challenging Scania region. Management has a strong track record which we expec to continue. The company has financial gearing a little bit above sector average, but pays a competive dividend. 150 100 50 0 dec-10 dec-11 dec-12 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR Real Estate Development Market Value (mill.) 12,835 Price 167.00 Price currency SEK Net debt (mill.) 14,077 Reporting currency SEK Enterprise Value (mill.) 26,912 FX rate (NOK) 1.02 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Sales (mill.) 1,297 1,458 1,654 1,913 2,124 1,951 2,021 EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,396 1,439 Net Income (mill.) 922 665 823 1,063 395 1,517 790 Price/Earnings 10.5 8.2 12.9 7.0 30.4 13.5 14.4 Price/Book Value 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 EV/EBIT - - - - - 20.2 19.5 Return on Equity (%) 19.2 12.3 14.0 16.3 5.7 11.8 10.5 Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.1.
Investment Objective Long term value creation We prefer performing companies, with strong long term prospects, available at favourable prices
Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price Performance Operating excellence «Doing good business with bad people simply doesn t work» Warren E. Buffet Prospects Strong competitive position «We don t focus at beating the market short term. We want our holdings to beat their competitors long term» Börje Ekholm Price Favourable valuation «The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of a nice price is forgotten» Unknown
Om ODIN Fastighet ODIN Fastighet är en aktivt förvaltad aktiefond som investerar i bolag som är börsnoterade, har sitt huvudkontor eller ursprung i något av de nordiska länderna och som huvudsakligen är bedriver sin verksamhet inom eller med fast egendom. Fonden vidarebefordrar mottagen utdelning till fondens andelsägare. Utdelningsdatum är 15 juni. Fondens långsiktiga mål är att ge högre avkastning än aktiemarknaden för börsnoterade fastighetsbolag, mätt enligt fondens referensindex. Fakta om fonden Ansvarig förvaltare Thomas Nielsen Förvaltare sedan 2014-08-11 Referensindex Carnegie Sweden Real Estate Basvaluta NOK Förvaltningsavgift 2 % Tecknings-/inlösenavgift 0 % Minsta teckningsbelopp 3000 NOK 42
Om förvaltaren Fondens ansvariga förvaltare Thomas Nielsen började arbeta hos ODIN i augusti 2013 och han har förvaltat fonderna ODIN Fastighet och sedan 11 augusti 2014. Han är civilekonom och har en master i Financial Economics. Han har god kunskap om fastighetsaktier i de norska och nordiska aktiemarknaderna och har tidigare varit aktieanalytiker på Fondsfinans, Kaupthing och Pareto. 43
Använd våra tjänster Kontrollera innehav, avkastning m.m. Logga in på dina fondsidor hos ODIN Online Sätt dina pengar i arbete Teckna andelar i våra fonder på nätet med BankID Håll dig uppdaterad Anmäl dig till vårt nyhetsbrev Hör av dig till oss +47 24 00 48 04 kundeservice@odinfond.no 44
Vi påminner om att. Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen, förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om aktiekurserna faller. Fondens värde kan variera kraftigt på grund av dess sammansättning och de förvaltningsmetoder ODIN Fonder använder sig av. Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta eller fullständiga. Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard. Faktablad och informationsbroschyr för fonden finns på www.odinfonder.se 45