Håller Nollvisionen? Claes Tingvall Anders Lie Trafikverket Juli 2011

Håller Nollvisionen? Claes Tingvall Anders Lie Trafikverket Juli 2011

Omkomna i vägtrafiken de senaste 12 månaderna, 1997-2011 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 * I 2010 års utfall ingår inte självmord. I den preliminära månadsrapportering under 2011 ingår självmord.

Omkomna fördelade efter färdsätt januari-juni, 2006-2011 120 100 80 60 40 20 Bilförare Bilpassagerare Motorcyklister Mopedister Cyklister Gående 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* * F o m 2010 exklusive suicid enligt officiell statistik (15-20 fall årligen). I den preliminära statistiken för 2011 har dessa ännu inte kunnat exkluderas.

Svårt skadade i vägtrafiken januari-juni, 2002-2011 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Allvarligt skadade efter färdsätt till 2009 Antal 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Cyklist Personbil MC-moped Fotgängare Lastbil/buss 500 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Allvarligt skadade efter färdsätt, 2010 Invaliditetsgrad från 10 % 5% 5% 43% 33% Fotgängare På cykel På moped På motorcykel I personbil I buss/lastbil/övrigt 6% 8%

Relativ utveckling av andel trafikarbete över hastighetsgräns samt medelhastighet, statligt vägnät jan-maj 1996-2011 (Index1996 = 1) 1,05 1 0,95 0,9 0,85 0,8 0,75 0,7 Medelhastighet total trafik Andel över skyltad hastighet

Nykter trafik Alkoholpåverkade omkomna personbilsförare 70 Antal Andel 30% 60 50 40 30 20 10 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 0% Antal Andel

Bältesanvändning Omkomna obältade personbilsförare 140 Antal Andel 60% 120 100 80 60 40 20 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 0% Antal Andel

Hjälmanvändning cykel Observerad hjälmanvändning bland cyklister 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Cykelhjälmsanvändning Nödvändig utveckling om ny lag Nödvändig utveckling om ej lag

Relative risk of fatality

Kullgren, Lie & Tingvall 2010 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 Minor injury Severe Injury Fatality 0,2 0 2 3 4 5

Comparison of mrsc in one and two star cars in different speed limits 50% 45% 40% 35% MRSC 5 %+, n=542 40% 44% 40% 41% 30% 28% 25% 20% 24% 21% * ** 15% 14% 10% 5% 0% 30 km/h 50 km/h 70 km/h 90 km/h

ESC new cars fitment rate 2009

Säkra fordon personbilar Andel trafikarbete med personbilar med olika skyddssystem 100,0% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Säkra fordon - motorcyklar Andelen motorcyklar utrustade med ABS i nyförsäljningen 2009 2010 30 % 60%

(9) By 2050, move close to zero fatalities in road transport. In line with this goal, the EU aims at halving road casualties by 2020. Make sure that the EU is a world leader in safety and security of transport in all modes of transport. WHITE PAPER Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system EU commission 2011

9. CONSIDERS that infrastructure, vehicles and road users should be seen as a system in which human error and inappropriate behavior should always be taken into account. Infrastructure and vehicles should be designed as to prevent and limit consequences of such failures; Council conclusions on road safety 3052th TRANSPORT, TELECOMMUNICATIONS and ENERGY Council meeting Brussels, 2 3 December 2010 "Towards a European road safety area: policy orientations on road safety 2011-2020"

15. ENCOURAGES a strong cooperation between the bodies responsible for the infrastructure in the Member States and the vehicle industry in order to support the deployment of promising in-vehicle safety systems that can contribute to save lives on the European roadnetwork. New technical solutions of which the effect is proven can contribute to make it possible to deal with problems like speeding and impaired driving (such as driving under the influence of alcohol, drugs and fatigue); Council conclusions on road safety 3052th TRANSPORT, TELECOMMUNICATIONS and ENERGY Council meeting Brussels, 2 3 December 2010 "Towards a European road safety area: policy orientations on road safety 2011-2020"

Our Vision is that no one is killed or injured in a Volvo by 2020 Volvo Cars Vision 2020 Volvo Cars Vision 2020, Sept 9, 2010 Anders Eugensson, Volvo Car Corporation

Shared responsability / Boundary conditions 80 40 70 40 Head-on Pedestrians Side 40 Rear-end 20 20 20 20 110 Large animal Contribution passive safety 60 10 55 80 Contribution active safety + + + + + + 20 30 15 30

human error The crash sequence: (matching human error and crash protection) what we might hit: education motivation cognition, etc. enforcement economic incentives normal driving Deviation from normal driving Emerging situation Critical situation Crash unavoidable unawareness inattention violation too close drifting sudden event skidding loss of control crash access to road transport system Vehicle Infrastructure Others comfort economy social conformity promote normal driving promote normal driving promote normal driving warning system supporting system (ISA, SBR, alcohol interlock) (speed warning, tactile warning, humps) enforcement insurance contracts intervention in driving (AICC, LDW) tactile edge lines immediate correction (ESC, LDA, AICC2) high friction surface preparation for crash (pre-safe, emergency braking) crash protection (seat belts, airbag, whiplash protection, pedestrian protection) barrier design, roundabouts emergency service

Normal Driving Support systems Seat belt reminders ISA/Speed Alert Alcolocks Impaired driving detection Etc. Access Normal driving Dangerous situation Crash Health treatment 26

Dangerous Situation Support systems Adaptive Cruise Control Lane departure warning Electronic stability control (ESC) Pre Impact Emergency Braking Etc. Access Normal driving Dangerous situation Crash Health treatment 27

And we should think: Roads that cars can read

Opel Insignia Mercedes S-Class Saab 9-5 BMW 5-Series Ford Focus VW Phaeton / Passat Audi A6

A management system standard 31

Sammanfattning Vi har haft en mycket positiv utveckling, men nu måste vi lägga till nya egenskaper och metoder Dom nya egenskaperna finns i den nya bilen, men den måste samverka med både normer och infrastruktur Organisationers och företagens beteende är nyckeln till bättre normer och därmed bättre teknik