ODIN USA C Årskommentar december 2018
Avkastning ODIN USA - december 2018 Avkastning senaste månaden och hittills i år Fonden hade en avkastning på -10,9 procent under den senaste månaden Fondens referensindex avkastade -11,1 procent under samma tidsperiod Fonden har givit en avkastning på 2,5 procent hittills i år Fondens referensindex avkastade 3,3 procent under samma tidsperiod Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och hittills i år Senaste månaden har vi inte gjort några stora förändringar i fonden Hittills i år är den största förändringen köp av PolyOne, Facebook, CDW och A.O. och sälj av Fortive och IFF Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och hittills i år De bästa bidragsgivarna under månaden var Nike och Dollar General De bolag som bidrog minst till avkastningen under månaden var Thermo Fisher och Accenture De bästa bidragsgivarna hittills i år är bolagen Thermo Fisher och Ball Corporation De bolag som bidragit minst till avkastningen hittills i år är AB InBev och PolyOne
ODIN USA december 2018 Prissättning av fonden Fonden prissätts till 16,9 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 1,3 procent Mätt mot bokfört eget kapital prissätts fonden till 4,4 gånger Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig avkastning på eget kapital på 23,6 procent Prissättning av den amerikanska aktiemarknaden - MCSI USA NR USD Marknaden prissätts till 14,9 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat Marknadesindex ger en direktavkastning på 2,2 procent Mätt mot bokfört eget kapital prissätts marknaden till 2,9 gånger Bolagen på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden har en genomsnittlig avkastning på eget kapital på 17,7 procent
Årskommentar ODIN USA C Marknadskommentar 2018 har varit ett år med mycket större fluktuationer i aktiekurserna än vad vi har varit vana vid under de senaste åren. Efter en bra start på året korrigerade den amerikanska aktieindexen S&P 500 ned tio procent i början av februari. Efter att ha nått en ny topp i slutet av september korrigerades börsen igen ned i oktober. Sedan oktober har volatiliteten ökat ytterligare. December präglades av rädsla, och blev den svagaste decembermånaden sedan den stora depressionen 1931. Marknaden har präglats av osäkerhet i samband med den ekonomiska utvecklingen, både i USA och resten av världen. Den amerikanska ekonomin är nu djupt inne i en ekonomisk nedgång, och den amerikanska centralbanken, som började höja styrräntan 2016, har signalerat att de kommer att fortsätta att höja räntorna på grund av den höga aktiviteten i den amerikanska ekonomin. Den stora frågan är när räntorna verkligen börjar få effekt och i vilken utsträckning centralbanken lyckas undvika ett abrupt avtagande av ekonomin. Donald Trump har dessutom inlett ett handelskrig med Kina. Det är osäkert vad resultatet av denna konflikt blir, men vi ser redan att konflikten har påverkat den globala handeln och investeringarna negativt. Vi vet att aktiekurserna svänger mer än de underliggande resultaten i bolagen. 2018 har varit ett år där det har uppstått en stor klyfta mellan den svaga kursutvecklingen för amerikanska aktier och den starka resultattillväxten i bolagen. De flesta amerikanska bolag har rapporterat en god tillväxt i efterfrågan på sina produkter och presenterar en bild av en ekonomi i hög växel. Dessutom har den skattereform som genomförts i slutet av 2017 gjort att en större del av omsättningen blir vinst i bolagens slutresultat. S&P 500 kan nå en resultattillväxt per aktie på 22 procent 2018. Eftersom kursutvecklingen har varit mycket svagare än resultatutvecklingen har priset på amerikanska aktier sjunkit avsevärt under hela året. Vid början av 2018 var S&P 500 prissatt till cirka 18 gånger mer än de nästföljande 12 månadernas resultat (P/E).
Årskommentar ODIN USA Fondens positionering ODIN USA har investerat på tvären av olika branscher och affärsmodeller. En viktig gemensam nämnare för bolagen i fonden är att de har ledande marknadspositioner på sina respektive marknader. Vi letar efter bolag som säljer produkter och tjänster som har ett högt värde för kunden. Bolag som fokuserar på kundnytta och goda kundupplevelser är de som kommer att växa snabbast. Med storlek kommer lägre kostnader. Bolag som säljer produkter som har ett högre värde för kunden än konkurrerande produkter och som kan producera till en lägre kostnad bygger starka marknadspositioner. En annan gemensam nämnare för våra investeringar är att de utsätts för vad vi anser vara långvariga tillväxttrender. En trend som påverkar flera av våra bolag är digitalisering. Genom våra investeringar i mjukvarubolag, IT-service och sök- och bokningstjänster utsätts vi för digitalisering av olika tjänster och affärsprocesser. Några andra viktiga trender är en åldrande befolkning som bidrar till tillväxten i våra bolag inom området hälsa, ökningen av andelen disponibel inkomst som används för tjänster och upplevelser, ökad efterfrågan på mer miljövänliga produkter och tillväxt i medelklassen på tillväxtmarknader. Kombinationen av varaktiga konkurrensfördelar och strukturell tillväxt lägger grunden för värdeskapande över tid. Vi undviker bolag som har intäkter som är helt beroende av priset på en enda råvara. Vi är också försiktiga med bolag i branscher där både utbud och efterfrågan fluktuerar kraftigt genom en konjunkturcykel. Helst ser vi att de bolag vi äger inte binder mycket pengar till fasta tillgångar eller rörelsekapital. Det ger större frihet till värdeskapande förvärv och återföring av kapital till aktieägarna, oavsett tillgång till extern kapitalförsörjning. Vi vill köpa bra bolag till ett rimligt pris. Fonden är prissatt högre än marknaden, på parametrar såsom marknadsvärde i form av försäljning, bokförda värden och resultat. Kvaliteten på de bolag vi äger, i form av högre tillväxt, kapitalavkastning och kassaflöde, försvarar en högre prissättning än snittet på bolagen i vårt jämförelseindex.
Årskommentar ODIN USA Förändringar i fonden Vi är aktiva förvaltare. Det betyder inte att vi ofta ändrar sammansättningen av fonden, utan att vi har tagit några aktiva, långsiktiga val som återspeglar vad vi tror på och ger oss en fond som skiljer sig markant från indexet. Över tid arbetar vi med att hitta investeringsidéer som har ännu bättre avkastningspotential än de bolag vi har i fonden. Under 2018 har vi köpt fyra nya bolag och sålt två bolag i fonden. I mars köpte vi PolyOne, ett bolag som utvecklar olika typer av plast- och kompositlösningar för kunder inom en mängd olika branscher. De arbetar till exempel mot bilindustrin för att hitta lösningar som kan minska bilarnas vikt, och mot hälso- och sjukvårdsindustrin för att utveckla ytbehandlingar på medicintekniska produkter som gör att de tål frekvent tvättning med starka desinfektionsmedel. PolyOne tillför kunderna värde genom ett nära samarbete med varje kund för att hitta anpassade lösningar. Detta avspeglas i de höga marginalerna för många av PolyOnes produkter. I april köpte vi våra första aktier i Facebook. Facebook har varit i blåsvädret i år främst eftersom det blev känt att de har varit slapphänta med användarnas personuppgifter men också för att de inte har slagit ned tillräckligt hårt på falska användarprofiler som används för att påverka politiska processer. Vi tror att förra årets händelser har varit ett uppvaknande för bolaget och att ledningen kommer att vidta de åtgärder som krävs för att återställa det förlorade förtroendet. Facebooks höga lönsamhet och starka kassaflöde gör det möjligt för bolaget att genomföra de nödvändiga investeringarna för att förbättra sekretessen och ta bort oönskat innehåll från plattformen. Facebook har fortfarande ett stort värde för sina användare och för annonsörer som vill nå ut med sitt budskap, vilket en ökning av antalet användare och de ökade reklamintäkterna visar. Vi tror att marknaden underskattar värdet av Facebooks plattform, som också består av Instagram, WhatsApp och Messenger, och att bolagets aktier förtjänar en betydligt högre prissättning med tanke på bolagets lönsamhet och tillväxt.
Årskommentar ODIN USA Förändringar i fonden I augusti köpte vi aktier i CDW Corp. CDW säljer ITlösningar och -utrustning till privat och offentlig sektor. Bolaget erbjuder såväl hårdvara som mjukvara från alla de stora IT-leverantörerna såsom Microsoft, HP, Cisco, Dell och Adobe. CDW:s storlek ger dem möjlighet att erbjuda mycket konkurrenskraftiga priser, förenkla upphandlingsprocessen och inte minst erbjuda installations- och uppgraderingsstöd, vilket är särskilt värdefullt för mindre bolag med begränsade interna ITresurser. IT-investeringarna i bolag och den offentliga sektorn växer kraftigt, och vi tror att denna tillväxt kommer att fortsätta med tanke på den digitaliseringsvåg som väller över både den privata och den offentliga ekonomin. Detta kräver investeringar i molnbaserade tjänster, databehandling och nätverkssäkerhet, mobila lösningar och artificiell intelligens. Det senaste tillskottet till fonden är A.O. Smith, en tillverkare av varmvattenberedare och vattenfiltreringsprodukter. Bolaget har en ledande position på en konsoliderad amerikansk marknad, där marginalerna är höga och tillväxten främst drivs av uppgradering av varmvattenberedare som är gamla och inte särskilt effektiva energimässigt. A.O. Smith har också en stark marknadsposition i Kina. Oron för svagare ekonomisk tillväxt i Kina har bidragit till att aktiekursen har fallit tillbaka i år. Vi anser att Kinas ökade urbanisering och tillväxten i medelklassen lägger grunden för god tillväxt för A.O. Smith under de kommande åren. I juni sålde vi vår position i International Flavours and Fragrances (IFF). Vi sålde aktierna i efterdyningarna av att bolaget hade meddelat förvärvet av den israeliska konkurrenten Frutarom. Vi anser att IFF har betalat för mycket för Frutarom, och att detta förvärv inte kommer att skapa värde för IFF:s aktieägare. Fortive sålde vi på grund av att bolagets verksamhet avvek från våra etiska riktlinjer. Ett dotterbolag till Fortive vann kontrakt för leverans av komponenter som används i raketer bestyckade med atomstridsspetsar. Våra försök att få bolaget att dra sig ur den här typen av verksamhet har inte lett någon vart, och därför valde vi att sälja vår position i Fortive.
Årskommentar ODIN USA Vad har fungerat bra i år? Sammantaget är det de bolag som är mindre känsliga för konjunktursvängningar och har mer stabila resultat som har gett den bästa avkastningen i år. Thermo Fisher säljer utrustning och tjänster till läkemedelsbolag, laboratorier och andra kunder inom kategorin "life science". Thermo Fisher säljer till marknader med strukturell tillväxt som drivs av utveckling av nya läkemedel, framsteg inom genforskning och ökat fokus på livsmedelssäkerhet och produkttestning av miljögifter. Bolaget ser ut att avsluta 2018 med en försäljningstillväxt på 15 % och en tillväxt i vinst per aktie på 16 %. Ball Corp är en av världens största tillverkare av aluminiumförpackningar för dryckesindustrin. Efter att ha genomfört förvärvet av konkurrenten Rexam tillverkar bolaget cirka 100 miljarder burkar per år. De senaste åren har präglats av integrationen av förvärvet, men Ball är på god väg att uppfylla sin målsättning på 1 miljard amerikanska dollar i fritt kassaflöde för räkenskapsåret 2019. Detta har även kursen visat och Ball har varit ett av de starkaste korten i fonden under 2018. Visa fortsätter att dra nytta av kortbetalningstillväxten i butik och online. Under räkenskapsåret 2018, som Visa slutförde i september, ökade intäkterna med över 12 %. Visas tillväxt beror främst på ökningen av antalet transaktioner som görs via bolagets nätverk. I 2018 gjordes betalningar med ett totalt värde av 2 100 miljarder dollar via Visas infrastruktur. Marknaden för betaltjänster växer snabbt, i takt med en digitalisering av betalningar och relaterade tjänster. Många nya lösningar är baserade på Visas plattform och bidrar därför till Visas tillväxt. Visa investerar också i nya lösningar som gör betalningarna säkrare och lättare att integrera i mobilbaserade betalningsplattformar. Vi anser därför att Visa kommer att fortsätta att växa, med hög lönsamhet, även i en värld där det ständigt utvecklas nya typer av betalningslösningar.
Årskommentar ODIN USA Vad gick mindre bra i år? Ölgiganten Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABInBev) har hittills i år varit en svag investering för oss. Bolaget har efter förvärvet av SABMiller en stark portfölj av välkända ölvarumärken med marknadsledande positioner på ett antal attraktiva ölmarknader i tillväxtekonomier. En kombination av svag makroekonomisk utveckling på viktiga marknader som Brasilien och Sydafrika, förlusten av marknadsandelar i USA och valutaförändringar, har gjort att den underliggande volymtillväxten och kassaflödet har varit svaga den senaste tiden. Med tanke på att bolaget har över 100 miljarder dollar i skulder efter förvärvet av SABMiller är särskilt det svaga kassaflödet oroande. I oktober valde bolaget att halvera intäkterna för att frigöra pengar till återbetalning av skulden. Detta var en förståndig åtgärd även om det inte togs emot väl av utdelningsinvesterare. Vi är inte bekymrade över bolagets balans med tanke på den långa förfallostrukturen och den höga räntesatsen. Bolaget har en hälsosam affärsmodell med god kostnadskontroll och ett utmärkt underliggande kassaflöde. Vi kommer framöver att noga följa i vilken utsträckning bolag klarar av att accelerera sin tillväxt, både genom ökad volym och genom den ökade aktieförsäljningen av premiumvarumärken med högre marginaler. PolyOne, som vi köpte i mars, har inte utvecklats som väntat på kort sikt. Tillväxten på den översta raden har varit god, men marginalerna pressas av ökade råmaterialkostnader och transportkostnader, vilket har bidragit till en svag kursutveckling. PolyOne kan kompensera för högre kostnader genom att höja priserna, men det måste de göra gradvis och det kommer därför att dröja innan vi kommer att se att marginalerna vänder uppåt igen. SiteOne Landscape Supply, som var den främsta bidragsgivaren 2017, har haft en svag kursutveckling i år. Bolagets underliggande utveckling är positiv. Bolaget har gjort många förvärv i 2018, och det är en viktig del av bolagets strategi. Samtidigt har försäljningen av nybyggda bostäder sjunkit i USA i år, och en betydande del av efterfrågan på SiteOnes produkter kommer från bostadsbyggande. Bolaget är också känsligt för räntor eftersom förvärv är en viktig del av strategin, vilket gör att bolaget måste finansiera sig på skuldmarknaden med jämna mellanrum. I kombination med en hög prissättning av aktien bidrog dessa faktorer till en svag kursutveckling.
Årskommentar ODIN USA Framtidsutsikter Vi är inte bättre än andra på att förutsäga den allmänna makroekonomiska utvecklingen och lägger därför inte så mycket tid på ekonomiska prognoser. Vi anser att vi har bättre förutsättningar för att utvärdera de enskilda bolagens konkurrensposition och lägger därför vår tid på att analysera bolagens produkter, kunder, leverantörer och konkurrenter för att identifiera de bolag som har varaktiga konkurrensfördelar. Även om vi inte har en kristallkula som kan säga något om framtiden, tror vi fortfarande att vi kan identifiera vissa långsiktiga trender som kan ge oss en uppfattning om vilka bolag och branscher som har förutsättningar för att växa sig större i framtiden. Om vi kan hitta en uppsättning bolag med starka konkurrensfördelar på växande marknader till ett rimligt pris får vi en bra justerad avkastning över tid. Om vi tittar på 2019 kommer det alltid att finnas en stor osäkerhet i samband med avkastningen under ett enskilt år. När det gäller resultatutvecklingen i bolagen var 2018 ett extraordinärt år med tanke på den skattereform som bidrog till en positiv engångseffekt på slutresultatet i amerikanska bolag. Vi tror därför att 2019 kommer att vara ett år med mer normal prestandatillväxt för fondens bolag, så länge vi inte får en betydande bromsning av ekonomin. Den amerikanska centralbanken kommer att spela en nyckelroll under 2019. Utvecklingen av aktie- och finansmarknaden signalerar att marknaden inte tror att ekonomin kan tåla så många fler räntelättnader. Det är därför viktigt att Fed håller tillbaka om de makroekonomiska indikatorerna försämras under 2019. Hur mycket en förändring av aktieprissättningen kommer att påverka avkastningen under 2019 är inte heller lätt att förutsäga. Vad vi vet är att marknaden har betydligt mycket mer rädsla med i beräkningen nu än för ett år sedan. Den stora klyftan mellan kursutvecklingen och resultatutvecklingen 2018 gör att marknaden definitivt framstår som billigare idag. Om det visar sig att rädslan är ogrundad är det möjligt att en omprissättning av aktier kommer att bidra positivt till avkastningen. ODIN USA består av bolag med starka marknadspositioner och utmärkta långsiktiga tillväxtutsikter. På dagens marknad får man dessa bolag till ett mycket bra pris.
Nyckeltal och nyheter från portföljen - presenterat på engelska
Return since inception % (SEK) - ODIN USA C ODIN USA C Index Historical Return % (SEK)* Last Month YTD 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y Since inception ODIN USA C -10,93 2,48 2,06 9,76 Benchmark -11,06 3,33 2,08 8,68 Excess Return 0,13-0,85-0,03 1,08 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized ** Returns for Fund Classes B and C are shown in a separate table. Returns prior to the share class inception date are based on calculations from the fund's oldest share class, taking into account the management fee in each share class.
Up or down In or out ODIN USA Significant portfolio changes year to date Number of changes in portfolio year to date 1 1 1 Buy Sell -1-1 -1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 + - + - + - + - PolyOne Fortive Facebook IFF CDW A.O. Smith Henry Schein Nike
Pricing of the fund Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. 5,0% United States Life Sciences Tools & Services 20,3 18,3 0,3 0,3 3,3 16,1 Visa Inc. Class A 4,7% United States IT Services 28,3 23,7 0,6 0,8 9,0 31,6 Alphabet Inc. Class C 4,6% United States Interactive Media & Services 24,8 21,9 0,0 0,0 4,1 16,4 Ball Corporation 4,4% United States Containers & Packaging 20,9 17,0 0,9 0,9 4,5 21,4 UnitedHealth Group 4,2% United States Health Care Providers & Services 19,5 17,1 1,4 1,4 4,5 23,1 Booking Holdings Inc. 4,0% United States Internet & Direct Marketing Retail 19,2 16,9 0,0 0,0 8,2 42,8 Henry Schein, Inc. 4,0% United States Health Care Providers & Services 19,1 17,6 0,0 0,0 3,6 18,9 Home Depot, Inc. 3,9% United States Specialty Retail 18,0 16,8 2,4 2,8 686,9 3 814,0 S&P Global, Inc. 3,9% United States Capital Markets 19,9 18,2 1,2 1,2 45,7 228,9 Sherwin-Williams Company 3,8% United States Chemicals 20,6 17,9 0,9 1,0 8,8 42,7 Topp 10 42,6% 20,8 18,4 0,7 0,8 5,9 28,3 ODIN USA 18,8 16,9 1,1 1,3 4,4 23,6 * NTM = Next 12 months LTM = Last 12 months Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares
Sector allocation - GICS Sectors
Sector allocation - Morningstar Super Sectors Cyclical Sensitive Defensive Cash GICS sectors included in Morningstar Super Sectors: Cyclical: Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Real Estate Sensitive: Telecommunication Services, Energy, Industrials, Information Technology Defensive: Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities
Share price performance*, year to date (SEK) (Sorted by weight in portfolio) *) Share price performance for equities included in the benchmark. Equities not included in the benchmark are calculated from portfolio figures.
Contribution, year to date (SEK)
Macro and Market
Pricing - US Equities (MSCI USA)
OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast
Historical Return - All fund classes (SEK) Last Month YTD 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y Since inception ODIN USA A -10,84 3,78 3,37 0,00 0,00 0,00 11,11 ODIN USA B -10,85 3,54 3,12 0,00 0,00 0,00 10,84 ODIN USA C -10,93 2,48 2,06 0,00 0,00 0,00 9,76 ODIN USA D -10,86 3,53 3,11 0,00 0,00 0,00 10,84 Benchmark -11,06 3,33 2,08 0,00 0,00 0,00 8,68 * Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized
Investments
AB-InBev Company description: ABI is the world`s largest brewery as a result of several acquisitions over the years among the most important were Anheuser-Busch in 2008, Grupo Modelo in 2013 and SABMiller in 2016. ABI has the highest operating margins and the strongest market positions among global brewers. Global brands are Budweiser, Corona, Stella and Beck`s. Why invested? A company with a strong corporate culture, a proven management team and very strong market positions. The acquisition of SABMiller is another game changer for ABI. The company has an excellent track record of integrating assets. We believe synergy-expectations are too low and growth opportunities higher than expected. We believe in high-single digit earnings growth over the coming years combined with a dividend yield of 2.5%. We view the company as a reliable compounder. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Sponsored ADR Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Sponsored ADR MSCI USA Consumer Staples /Beverages Market Value (mill.) 133,189 Price 65.81 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 108,378 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 241,567 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 43,224 46,347 43,397 45,417 57,027 54,369 54,852 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 13,092 13,860 12,673 12,463 17,029 17,708 18,374 Net Income (reported - mill.) 14,404 9,076 8,234 1,190 8,050 6,174 9,356 Equity 50,365 48,466 42,137 71,339 72,585 75,566 80,761 Return on Equity (%) 28.6 % 18.4 % 18.2 % 2.1 % 11.2 % 8.3 % 12.0 % EPS 8.9 5.6 5.0 0.7 4.1 3.9 4.7 Book value per share 31.4 30.2 26.2 36.9 37.5 38.1 40.9 DPS 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.3 2.1 2.1 Price/Earnings 12.0 20.2 24.9 146.8 27.2 16.9 14.0 Price/Book Value 3.4 3.7 4.8 2.9 3.0 1.7 1.6 EV/EBIT 16.8 16.8 19.8 24.3 19.7 13.6 13.1 Dividend Yield (%) 2.2 % 2.5 % 2.6 % 2.9 % 3.0 % 3.1 % 3.1 %
Accenture Company description: Accenture operates at the intersection of business strategy and technology. Accenture operates two divisions; Consulting and Outsourcing. The latter part of the business runs operations on behalf of the client. A diversified business model across industries and geographies. A scalable model which has worked well both in strong and weak markets. 92 of the top 100 clients have been with the company for more than 10 years. Why invested? Change is good for Accenture. Increased complexity and rapid change in the IT-landscape creates opportunities for Accenture. An asset-light model which generates strong free cash flow. Net cash of the company stands at over 4% of market cap. Free cash flow exceeding earnings over the past years is an indication of high earnings quality. The main risk is the ability to attract talent in a fiercely competitive industry. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Accenture Plc Class A Accenture Plc Class A MSCI USA Information Technology /IT Services Market Value (mill.) 89,887 Price 141.01 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -4,342 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 85,544 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (August) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Sales (mill.) 31,875 32,914 34,798 36,765 41,603 42,894 45,733 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 4,384 4,485 4,787 5,261 5,934 6,263 6,803 Net Income (reported - mill.) 2,941 3,054 4,112 3,445 4,060 4,684 5,069 Equity 5,732 6,134 7,555 8,949 10,365 12,432 13,864 Return on Equity (%) 51.3 % 51.5 % 60.1 % 41.7 % 42.0 % 41.1 % 38.6 % EPS 4.5 4.8 6.5 5.4 6.3 7.2 7.9 Book value per share 9.1 9.8 12.2 14.5 16.2 21.1 22.7 DPS 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 Price/Earnings 17.9 19.8 17.8 24.0 26.7 19.5 17.9 Price/Book Value 8.9 9.6 9.4 9.0 10.4 6.7 6.2 EV/EBIT 11.8 13.4 15.2 15.8 17.9 13.7 12.6 Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 % 2.2 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.6 % 2.1 % 2.3 %
Alphabet Company description: 250 Performance - last 5 years Alphabet is the holding company of Google. Global technology company focused on search, online advertising, operating systems and hardware products. Google generates revenue by delivering online advertising and the sale of apps and other content on Google Play. Why invested? Google has the leading search and online advertising technology. Google also has a strong eco-system built around Android and Google Play, and world-class assets like YouTube. Google is very well positioned for growth in digital advertising spend. People spend more and more time on mobile devices and advertisers will follow. We like Google s focus on the user experience and it s longterm strategic thinking, and we believe the company attracts world-class talent. 200 150 100 50 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Alphabet Inc. Class C Alphabet Inc. Class A MSCI USA Communication Services /Interactive Media & Services Market Value (mill.) 723,465 Price 1035.61 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -102,430 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 621,035 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 59,730 65,830 73,590 89,733 111,024 136,495 162,730 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 13,994 16,703 17,961 23,177 29,051 26,969 37,763 Net Income (reported - mill.) 12,214 13,928 15,826 19,478 12,662 29,487 33,519 Equity 87,309 103,860 120,331 139,036 152,502 178,848 219,111 Return on Equity (%) 14.0 % 14.6 % 14.1 % 15.0 % 8.7 % 17.8 % 16.8 % EPS 18.0 19.5 22.8 27.9 18.0 41.8 47.4 Book value per share 130.1 152.7 175.1 201.1 219.5 254.7 305.1 DPS - - - - - - - Price/Earnings 31.2 27.2 34.1 27.7 58.1 24.8 21.9 Price/Book Value 4.3 3.5 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.1 3.4 EV/EBIT - 18.1 25.5 19.7 22.0 23.0 16.4 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
ANSYS Company description: ANSYS is a developer of engineering simulation software. The company has a 40% global market share of simulation software used to test products in a number of industries, from bridges to auto components. Computer simulation increases reliability, decreases development time and in many cases removes need for physical models. Why invested? ANSYS is the clear market leader in a market with high barriers to entry. Trough internal development and acquisitions, Ansys has built the most complete offering in the industry (covering mechanical, air/fluid flow and electrical). As products across a range of industries become more advanced, the need for simulation increases. One important growth driver for the ANSYS is the increasing ease of use of its software, making it useable also for design engineers, significantly expanding the addressable market. ANSYS operates a very cash generative business model and has a net cash position on its balance sheet. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 ANSYS, Inc. ANSYS, Inc. MSCI USA Information Technology /Software Market Value (mill.) 11,944 Price 142.94 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -729 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 11,215 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 861 936 943 988 1,095 1,247 1,360 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 322 347 354 380 402 563 611 Net Income (reported - mill.) 245 255 253 266 259 367 384 Equity 2,136 2,218 2,194 2,208 2,246 2,566 2,701 Return on Equity (%) 11.5 % 11.7 % 11.4 % 12.1 % 11.6 % 15.3 % 14.6 % EPS 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 5.3 5.7 Book value per share 23.1 24.4 24.9 25.8 26.7 29.3 32.6 DPS - - - - - - - Price/Earnings 33.8 30.4 33.5 30.9 49.5 26.8 25.2 Price/Book Value 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 5.5 4.9 4.4 EV/EBIT 23.5 20.0 21.7 19.5 29.7 19.9 18.4 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
A.O. Smith Company description: A.O. Smith is a global leading manufacturer of residential and commercial water heating equipment and water treatment and air purification products. It generates 64% of its revenues in North America, 34% in China and the remaining 2% in India, Middle East and Europe. Why invested? A.O. Smith combines a strong market position in a consolidated and steadily growing US market with high growth in China. In China, A.O. Smith has built a strong brand, positioned at the high-end of the market known for quality and with broad distribution. As the middle class in China grows, new construction and the replacement of old, lower quality water heaters drive growth in demand for A.O. Smith products. Poor water quality drives demand for water treatment products. Margins are good, but with room to improve further. In the US, the market is consolidated with three large players. Margins are high and growth is driven by replacement demand from 120m homes. 300 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 A. O. Smith Corporation A. O. Smith Corporation MSCI USA Industrials /Building Products Market Value (mill.) 7,263 Price 42.70 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -425 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 6,838 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 2,154 2,356 2,537 2,686 2,997 3,199 3,350 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 247 284 393 461 520 565 613 Net Income (reported - mill.) 170 208 283 327 297 439 475 Equity 1,329 1,381 1,442 1,515 1,649 1,763 1,947 Return on Equity (%) 12.8 % 15.3 % 20.0 % 22.1 % 18.7 % 25.7 % 25.6 % EPS 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.6 2.8 Book value per share 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.6 10.8 13.3 DPS 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 Price/Earnings 29.5 24.7 24.2 25.6 36.0 16.6 15.3 Price/Book Value 3.7 3.7 4.7 5.4 6.4 4.0 3.2 EV/EBIT 19.1 17.0 16.4 17.2 19.8 12.1 11.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 % 1.1 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.7 % 2.1 % Family ownership ensures focus on making the right strategic decisions and investments for the long term.
Ball Company description: Ball is the largest provider of metal packaging for beverages, foods and household products in the world. Manufactures close to 100 billion recyclable aluminium and steel cans a year. A second divison, Ball Aerospace and Technology, manufactures instruments and sensors for the aerospace industry. Why invested? A financially strong franchise with strong returns on capital. Fundamental driver for the investment case is soft drink and beer per capita consumption. True owners with well-aligned management who owns 11% of the company. We expect the impressive track record to continue in the coming years with strong top line and stable margins. In February 2015 Ball announced the acquisition of the 2 nd largest player in the industry, Rexam. The top 3 players control 60% of the total worldwide market. Historically Ball has managed to pass on metal prices to its customers. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Ball Corporation Ball Corporation MSCI USA Materials /Containers & Packaging Market Value (mill.) 15,596 Price 45.98 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 6,065 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 21,661 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 8,463 8,572 7,990 9,062 10,994 11,487 11,482 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 909 996 821 691 1,284 1,308 1,436 Net Income (reported - mill.) 406 470 281 263 374 466 754 Equity 1,200 1,033 1,251 3,435 3,941 3,619 3,518 Return on Equity (%) 33.9 % 42.1 % 24.6 % 11.2 % 10.1 % 12.3 % 21.1 % EPS 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 2.2 2.7 Book value per share 4.2 3.8 4.4 9.8 11.3 10.3 10.1 DPS 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Price/Earnings 18.9 20.7 36.5 46.1 36.0 20.9 17.0 Price/Book Value 6.1 9.0 8.3 3.8 3.4 4.5 4.5 EV/EBIT 12.2 12.9 18.5 27.7 15.7 16.6 15.1 Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.9 %
Booking Holdings Company description: Booking Holdings is an online travel company whose main asset is booking.com, one of the leading online travel agencies. Booking.com has 900,000 hotels on its website and over 300 million room nights were booked through the website last year. For each hotel booking made through their website booking.com receives a commission of between 10 and 20 percent. Other assets are Kayak.com, priceline.com, agoda and Rentalcars.com. Why invested? Priceline is one of the main beneficiaries of changing consumer behaviour when it comes to booking travel. An increasing share of global hotel and flight booking are made online. For small and mid-sized independent hotels, online travel agencies is the main marketing and sales channel. The market is shared between Priceline and Expedia, forming a duopoly with 2 rational players. Not only is the share of bookings made online increasing, but the global travel market is also showing good underlying growth. In addition to hotels and flights, vacation rentals is becoming an additional revenue driver for the company. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Booking Holdings Inc. Booking Holdings Inc. MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary /Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Market Value (mill.) 79,800 Price 1722.42 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 1,551 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 81,351 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 6,793 8,442 9,224 10,743 12,681 14,542 16,181 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 2,441 3,073 3,259 3,847 4,538 5,306 5,810 Net Income (reported - mill.) 1,893 2,422 2,551 2,135 2,341 4,218 4,580 Equity 6,910 8,567 8,795 9,820 11,261 10,609 12,699 Return on Equity (%) 27.4 % 31.3 % 29.4 % 22.9 % 22.2 % 38.6 % 39.3 % EPS 36.1 45.7 49.5 42.7 46.9 89.7 101.7 Book value per share 132.9 165.0 177.3 199.6 232.3 209.6 255.0 DPS - - - - - - - Price/Earnings 32.2 25.0 25.8 34.4 37.1 19.2 16.9 Price/Book Value 8.7 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.5 8.2 6.8 EV/EBIT 23.0 19.5 21.3 19.8 19.6 15.3 14.0 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
CDW Company description CDW is a value-added reseller of IT hardware, software and solutions to companies and the public sector. CDW offers a broad product selection from all the key ITvendors. The company has a knowledgeable salesforce supported by technical consultants and IT-engineers helping customers find and implement the most suitable solutions for them. Why invested? CDW is taking market share in a fragmented market where CDW has 5% market share, 2x the closest competitor. Investments in security, cloud and mobility solutions is driving strong demand for new IT-solutions both from companies and the public sector. For smaller companies with less IT-resources CDW adds value by helping the client with implementation and after-sale services. For the large OEMs, like Microsoft, HP, Dell and Adobe, selling through CDW gives them access to a reseller with close customer relationship, excellent product knowledge and efficient logistics. 500 400 300 200 100 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 CDW Corp. CDW Corp. MSCI USA Information Technology /Electronic Equipment Instruments & Components Market Value (mill.) 12,156 Price 81.05 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 3,372 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 15,528 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 10,769 12,075 12,989 13,982 15,192 16,181 17,091 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 498 674 749 819 866 1,207 1,302 Net Income (reported - mill.) 133 245 403 424 523 625 669 Equity 712 937 1,096 1,046 983 1,164 1,281 Return on Equity (%) 18.7 % 29.7 % 39.7 % 39.6 % 51.6 % 58.2 % 54.7 % EPS 0.8 1.4 2.4 2.6 3.3 5.1 5.5 Book value per share 4.1 5.4 6.5 6.5 6.4 7.9 9.5 DPS 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 Price/Earnings 27.8 24.8 17.9 20.3 21.0 16.0 14.6 Price/Book Value 5.6 6.5 6.5 8.0 10.8 10.3 8.5 EV/EBIT 14.1 13.7 14.5 14.9 16.8 12.9 11.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.5 %
Cognizant Company description Cognizant is an IT services company that follows a global delivery model based on offshoring outsourcing and software development. The company has its origins as a part of Dun & Bradstreet and was listed on Nasdaq in 1998. Why invested? We believe Cognizant is well positioned for the next phase of the IT services cycle which will focus on digital transformation of businesses as they invest in mobile, social networks, analytics and cloud capabilities. 50% of Cognizant s business today is within IT consulting and implementation of complex transformation programmes. Cognizant has shown high willingness to invest in building strong client relationships, resulting in slightly lower margins than peers, but higher growth. We expect the company to continue building digital assets both organically and through acquisitions. The main risks are wage growth in India where most employees are based, strengthening of the Indian Rupee and heated competition for digital assets and talent. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A MSCI USA Information Technology /IT Services Market Value (mill.) 36,757 Price 63.48 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -4,039 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 32,718 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 8,843 10,263 12,416 13,487 14,810 16,112 17,405 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 1,841 2,021 2,213 2,272 2,424 2,853 3,308 Net Income (reported - mill.) 1,229 1,439 1,624 1,553 1,504 1,994 2,565 Equity 6,136 7,740 9,278 10,728 10,669 11,298 12,869 Return on Equity (%) 20.0 % 20.7 % 19.1 % 15.5 % 14.1 % 18.1 % 21.2 % EPS 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 4.5 5.0 Book value per share 10.1 12.7 15.2 17.6 18.1 19.5 22.4 DPS - - - - 0.5 0.8 0.8 Price/Earnings 25.1 22.4 22.6 22.0 28.1 14.1 12.8 Price/Book Value 5.0 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.9 3.3 2.8 EV/EBIT 14.7 14.9 15.0 13.2 15.7 11.5 9.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.6 % 1.3 % 1.3 %
Dollar General Company description Dollar General is a discount store, selling food and household supplies at everyday low prices. The stores are of a smaller format in convenient locations. The company opened its first store in 1955. Today it has over 15,000 stores spread across 42 states. Discount stores make up less than five percent of the market and its customers tend to be from lower income households. Why invested? Dollar General is one of the few retail formats in the US with potential for significant store expansion. The company sees the potential for another 13,000 discount stores across the country. Online competition is limited given the small basket size and type of customer. Dollar General s business model is not easy to replicate given need for store density to drive efficient logistics, systems to run stores with less labour and experience in finding the best location for its stores. Dollar General has high return on new stores and given low capex requirements to open new stores, free cash flow is strong. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Dollar General Corporation Dollar General Corporation MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary /Multiline Retail Market Value (mill.) 28,413 Price 108.08 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 2,644 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 31,056 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (January) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Sales (mill.) 17,504 18,910 20,369 21,987 23,471 25,577 27,489 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 1,745 1,785 1,952 2,076 2,051 2,141 2,314 Net Income (reported - mill.) 1,025 1,065 1,165 1,251 1,539 1,600 1,719 Equity 5,402 5,710 5,378 5,406 6,126 6,560 7,144 Return on Equity (%) 19.0 % 19.2 % 21.0 % 23.2 % 26.7 % 25.2 % 25.1 % EPS 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.4 5.6 6.0 6.6 Book value per share 17.0 18.8 18.8 19.6 22.8 24.7 28.1 DPS - - 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 Price/Earnings 17.8 19.2 19.0 16.5 17.7 18.0 16.3 Price/Book Value 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.7 4.4 4.4 3.8 EV/EBIT 11.8 12.7 12.8 11.4 14.6 14.5 13.4 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.2 % 1.4 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.2 %
Facebook Company description Facebook is the world s largest social network. The company makes the majority of its income from advertising revenue. Facebook also owns WhatsApp and Instagram. Why invested? Facebook has over time become one of the main beneficiaries of the shift from offline to online advertising. Advertisers see that they get good returns on their investment in ads on Facebook and are willing to bid high prices to place adds there. Strong network effects make Facebook s user bare sticky. We see good opportunities to monetise this userbase further, especially in Asia. Instagram and WhatsApp also offers opportunities for revenue growth. Facebook has grown its revenue at a high rate since its IPO in 2012 and is very profitable with an EBIT-margin in the high 40s. At P/E 18 the stock is not pricing in excessive growth in the outer years. Performance - last 5 years 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Facebook, Inc. Class A Facebook, Inc. Class A MSCI USA Communication Services /Interactive Media & Services Market Value (mill.) 376,725 Price 131.09 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -41,213 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 335,512 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 7,872 12,466 17,928 27,638 40,653 55,324 68,590 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 2,921 4,982 6,294 12,493 20,203 24,502 24,929 Net Income (reported - mill.) 1,491 2,925 3,669 10,188 15,920 21,667 21,795 Equity 15,470 36,096 44,218 59,194 74,347 86,822 110,278 Return on Equity (%) 9.6 % 11.3 % 9.1 % 19.7 % 23.8 % 26.9 % 22.1 % EPS 0.6 1.1 1.3 3.5 5.4 7.4 7.4 Book value per share 6.1 12.9 15.5 20.5 25.6 29.1 36.9 DPS - - - - - - - Price/Earnings 91.1 70.9 81.1 32.9 32.7 17.8 17.7 Price/Book Value 9.0 6.0 6.7 5.6 6.9 4.5 3.6 EV/EBIT 43.3 39.5 44.6 24.6 23.8 13.7 13.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
First Republic Bank Company description The only listed private bank in the US. It focuses on high net-worth individuals and has its branches concentrated in geographical areas with high concentration of these individuals. Why invested? First Republic has a unique business model that differentiates it from other banks. The bank has an entrepreneurial culture where the relationship manager owns the relationship to the customer and is compensated like an owner of the business. Relationship managers share in the downside and therefore stay very conservative in lending practices. Loan-to-value is low across business and loan losses very low. First Republic taps the market for equity opportunistically and often far ahead of growth needs. The bank is light on the number of branches, keeping costs low. Growing wealth management income will drive a higher ROE going forward. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 First Republic Bank First Republic Bank MSCI USA Financials /Banks Market Value (mill.) 14,319 Price 86.90 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 8,360 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 22,679 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 1,600 1,802 1,989 2,376 2,912 3,030 3,480 Net Income (reported - mill.) 462 487 522 673 758 788 915 Equity 4,160 4,778 5,706 6,909 7,818 7,710 8,656 Return on Equity (%) 11.1 % 10.2 % 9.2 % 9.7 % 9.7 % 10.2 % 10.6 % EPS 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.4 Book value per share 24.6 28.1 32.3 37.4 42.2 46.7 52.0 DPS 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 Price/Earnings 16.9 17.0 20.8 23.4 20.1 18.3 16.2 Price/Book Value 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 %
Home Depot Company description Home Depot is the world s largest home improvement retailer. It s size gives it the best purchase terms from suppliers and is seen as a key channel for testing new products. Why invested? We believe Home Depot is well-positioned in an online world. Most home improvement goods do not lend themselves well to being shipped. For those goods that customers want to order online Home Depot has a wellestablished e-commerce business. Company is 6 th largest e-retailer in the US. Amazon as a competitor cannot offer advantages of having a physical store. Home Depot has significant growth opportunities through growing sales to professional customers, online sales and the sale of home improvement services. Home Depot has cyclical risk as sales are sensitive to macroeconomic factors. We see the downturn following the bursting of the last housing bubble as unique and not likely to repeat in same form in today s market. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Home Depot, Inc. Home Depot, Inc. MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary /Specialty Retail Market Value (mill.) 194,076 Price 171.82 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 24,020 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 218,096 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (January) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Sales (mill.) 78,812 83,176 88,519 94,595 100,904 108,337 111,911 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 9,166 10,502 11,902 13,464 14,851 15,738 16,366 Net Income (reported - mill.) 5,385 6,345 7,009 7,957 8,630 11,225 11,351 Equity 12,522 9,322 6,316 4,333 1,454 280-564 Return on Equity (%) 43.0 % 58.1 % 89.6 % 149.4 % 298.3 % 1294.8 % -7992.3 % EPS 3.8 4.7 5.5 6.5 7.3 9.8 10.3 Book value per share 9.1 7.1 5.0 3.6 1.3 0.2-0.9 DPS 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.6 4.1 4.8 Price/Earnings 20.4 22.2 23.0 21.4 28.4 17.5 16.8 Price/Book Value 8.5 14.6 24.9 38.4 165.0 1,010.7 - EV/EBIT 13.4 14.9 15.2 14.2 18.1 13.9 13.3 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 % 1.8 % 1.9 % 2.0 % 1.7 % 2.4 % 2.8 %
Henry Schein Company description Henry Schein is a distributor of dental consumables, disposables and equipment, veterinary supplies and medical products to office-based dentists, vets and physicians. Why invested? Henry Schein has over the years built very close relationships to its customers helping them run their practices more efficiently, offering their patients the best possible care. The company is the clear market leader in what are still fragmented markets. The customer base is also very fragmented and demand is fairly resistant to macro-economic downturns. We view Henry Schein as having a strong company culture and a management that has been with the company for a long time. Henry Schein has a track record of strong top-line growth (both organic and through acquisitions), steady margin progression and strong cash flows. Ageing populations, increased access to health care, health care product innovations and increased pet ownership are some important growth drivers. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Henry Schein, Inc. Henry Schein, Inc. MSCI USA Health Care /Health Care Providers & Services Market Value (mill.) 11,969 Price 78.52 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 2,038 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 14,007 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 9,561 10,371 10,630 11,572 12,462 13,300 13,879 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 677 715 769 817 859 898 959 Net Income (reported - mill.) 444 466 479 507 406 633 677 Equity 2,785 2,814 2,884 2,793 2,811 3,540 3,797 Return on Equity (%) 15.9 % 16.6 % 16.8 % 17.9 % 14.5 % 19.9 % 18.5 % EPS 2.5 2.7 2.8 1.6 2.6 4.1 4.5 Book value per share 16.3 16.7 17.5 8.8 18.3 21.7 24.8 DPS - - - - - - - Price/Earnings 22.6 25.3 27.6 48.9 27.2 19.1 17.6 Price/Book Value 3.5 4.1 4.5 8.6 3.8 3.6 3.2 EV/EBIT 16.0 18.2 18.9 17.4 15.6 15.6 14.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Marriott International Company description Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation and franchises of hotels, corporate housing properties, and vacation properties under numerous brand names. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, MD. Why invested? Marriott International is relatively asset-light. The company owns a few hotels, but for the majority of hotels Mariott is just the operator or franchisor. Due to its assetlight operating model Marriott enjoys high returns on its invested capital. The model is highly scalable and this scalability should benefit the company as its brand awareness grows overseas. After merging with Starwood, Marriott has one of the largest loyalty programs in the industry, an important offering to attract and retain loyal customers. Marriott is a leading brand in North America, where its growth strategy has worked well. Given the company's experience in the hotel business and portfolio of strong brands, we expect Marriott to convert attractive international growth opportunities. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Marriott International, Inc. Class A Marriott International, Inc. Class A MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary /Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Market Value (mill.) 37,033 Price 108.56 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 8,954 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 45,987 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 12,781 13,795 14,476 17,072 22,894 20,771 21,931 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 985 1,183 1,394 1,754 2,518 2,753 3,007 Net Income (reported - mill.) 626 753 859 780 1,372 1,979 2,091 Equity -1,415-2,200-3,590 5,357 3,731 2,033 1,040 Return on Equity (%) -44.2 % -41.7 % -29.7 % 88.3 % 30.2 % 68.7 % 136.1 % EPS 2.0 2.5 3.2 2.6 3.6 6.2 6.3 Book value per share -4.7-7.9-14.0 13.9 10.4 5.8 2.5 DPS 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 Price/Earnings 24.7 30.7 21.3 31.3 37.6 17.6 17.2 Price/Book Value -10.4-9.9-4.8 6.0 13.1 18.7 43.4 EV/EBIT 18.8 22.7 16.0 18.3 23.6 16.7 15.3 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 % 1.0 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.0 % 1.4 % 1.6 %
Marsh & McLennan Company description Marsh & McLennan (MML)is one of the world's largest insurance and reinsurance brokers. The company also has a substantial presence in consulting through Mercer and Oliver Wyman. The company has clients in more than 130 countries. Each of its operating companies is a global leader. Why invested? Insurance brokers are the distributors of insurers products and, unlike the insurers, do not assume underwriting risk or have large capital requirements. MML has delivered significantly higher earnings growth than the S&P 500, with lower capital requirements and reduced risk, and we believe they will continue to do so. The business model is capital light and the company operates in a highly concentrated industry with 10 players having 70 % market share, MML and AON are the top two with 40 % of the market. The industry is characterized by very high retention rates and underlying growth in excess of GDP growth. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MSCI USA Financials /Insurance Market Value (mill.) 40,171 Price 79.75 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 5,199 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 45,370 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 12,330 12,988 12,931 13,200 14,039 14,986 15,806 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 2,205 2,381 2,530 2,706 2,914 2,927 3,294 Net Income (reported - mill.) 1,351 1,439 1,599 1,768 1,490 2,027 2,371 Equity 7,905 7,054 6,513 6,192 7,359 7,729 8,792 Return on Equity (%) 17.1 % 19.2 % 23.6 % 27.8 % 22.0 % 26.9 % 28.7 % EPS 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.4 2.9 4.3 4.7 Book value per share 14.5 13.1 12.5 12.0 14.5 15.6 18.1 DPS 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 Price/Earnings 20.0 22.0 18.6 20.0 28.4 18.5 17.2 Price/Book Value 3.3 4.4 4.4 5.6 5.6 5.1 4.4 EV/EBIT 12.6 13.9 13.0 14.5 16.0 15.5 13.8 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 % 1.9 % 2.2 % 2.0 % 1.8 % 2.0 % 2.2 %
Medtronic Company description: US medical device company. Market leading position in cardiac rhythm management, structural heart, spine products, neuromodulation and cardiovascular. Medtronic merged with Covidien in 2015, forming the world s largest medical device company. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years Why invested? The main growth drivers are therapy innovation - developing products with better clinical outcomes and better economic value, and emerging markets growth increasing the penetration of medical devices in less developed economies. Medtronic operates in an industry with high barriers to entry, resulting in high margins and high returns on capital. R&D drives growth and the business throws off large amounts of cash that can be used for acquisitions or returned to shareholders. The main risk of this business are product failures leading to product recalls or in the worst case major litigation. 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Medtronic plc Medtronic plc MSCI USA Health Care /Health Care Equipment & Supplies Market Value (mill.) 122,163 Price 90.96 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 14,883 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 137,046 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (April) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Sales (mill.) 17,005 20,261 28,833 29,710 29,953 30,558 31,856 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 4,690 4,755 5,297 6,555 6,953 8,787 9,312 Net Income (reported - mill.) 3,065 2,675 3,538 4,028 3,104 5,076 5,693 Equity 19,443 53,230 52,063 50,208 50,720 51,122 53,251 Return on Equity (%) 15.8 % 7.4 % 6.7 % 7.9 % 6.2 % 10.0 % 10.9 % EPS 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.3 5.1 5.5 Book value per share 19.5 37.4 37.2 36.7 37.5 38.3 39.5 DPS 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 Price/Earnings 19.3 32.2 31.9 28.8 35.8 17.7 16.4 Price/Book Value 3.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 EV/EBIT 12.1 21.6 24.8 20.7 18.1 15.6 14.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 % 1.6 % 1.9 % 2.1 % 2.3 % 2.2 % 2.4 %
Nike Company description: 250 Performance - last 5 years Global market leader in athletic footwear and apparel. Its brand portfolio consists of Nike, Jordan, Converse and Hurley. Nike sells its products through third party retail partners, company-owned stores and e-commerce channels. Founder Phil Knight is still with the company as chairman emeritus and owns 75% of Nike s A-shares allowing him to effectively elect ¾ of the board. 200 150 100 50 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Why invested? NIKE, Inc. Class B MSCI USA Nike s has a long track record of successful product innovation supported by the largest marketing budget in the industry. The global athletisure trend, demand for western lifestyle products from the middle class in emerging markets and continuous focus on innovation are key growth drivers. Nike is also well positioned for the e-commerce trend with strong growth in sales on nike.com with higher margins. Nike has a strong balance sheet, pays a regular dividend and uses excess cash to buy back shares. NIKE, Inc. Class B Consumer Discretionary /Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods Market Value (mill.) 118,110 Price 74.14 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) -783 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 117,327 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (May) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Sales (mill.) 27,785 30,696 32,464 34,254 36,363 39,223 42,236 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 3,678 4,050 4,004 4,314 4,500 5,052 5,781 Net Income (reported - mill.) 2,693 3,273 3,760 4,240 1,933 4,212 4,871 Equity 10,824 12,707 12,258 12,407 9,812 8,379 8,431 Return on Equity (%) 24.9 % 27.8 % 30.1 % 34.4 % 17.4 % 46.3 % 58.0 % EPS 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.2 2.7 3.1 Book value per share 6.2 7.4 7.3 7.6 6.1 5.1 5.2 DPS 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 Price/Earnings 25.9 27.5 25.6 21.1 61.4 28.0 23.6 Price/Book Value 6.2 6.9 7.6 7.0 11.7 14.7 14.3 EV/EBIT 17.9 21.1 23.2 20.2 26.2 23.2 20.3 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.3 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.3 %
Oracle Company description: Oracle offers an optimized and fully integrated solutions of business hardware and software systems. Solutions to address complex business processes for a wide range of industries. A vertical-integration approach by engineering hardware and software to work together. Products from servers and storage, to database and middleware, through applications. Why invested? Oracle generates a very strong and stable free cash flow with lots of room to grow both organically and inorganically. Industry-leading margins and strong return on capital. Growth is key in the IT-industry, and slowing growth the last couple of years is one of the reason why Oracle is a cheap stock by all standards. Recent acquisitions and investments in cloud solutions have the potential to substantially increase Oracle s top-line growth. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 dec-18 Oracle Corporation Oracle Corporation MSCI USA Information Technology /Software Market Value (mill.) 162,040 Price 45.15 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 8,647 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 170,687 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (May) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Sales (mill.) 38,275 38,226 37,047 37,728 39,831 39,562 40,666 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 14,983 14,289 13,104 13,276 14,319 17,112 17,837 Net Income (reported - mill.) 10,955 9,938 8,901 9,335 3,825 10,270 10,829 Equity 46,878 48,663 47,289 53,860 45,726 27,393 31,160 Return on Equity (%) 23.4 % 20.8 % 18.6 % 18.5 % 7.7 % 28.1 % 37.0 % EPS 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 0.9 3.4 3.7 Book value per share 10.5 11.2 11.4 13.0 11.4 7.5 10.2 DPS 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 Price/Earnings 17.7 19.7 19.4 20.5 51.9 13.3 12.3 Price/Book Value 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.5 4.1 6.0 4.4 EV/EBIT 12.0 12.9 12.3 13.8 13.4 10.0 9.6 Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.5 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.8 %
PolyOne Company description: PolyOne specializes in polymer materials, services and solutions with operations in specialty polymer formulations, color and additive systems, plastic sheet and packaging solutions and polymer distribution. 75% of revenues in North America, 15% in Europe and 10% in Asia. Why invested? PolyOne is a leading producer of specialty plastic solutions, colourings and composites. Through a strong innovation capacity across a broad number of polymer solutions, and focus on customer service and customer value, PolyOne has built a strong market position. The company serves a wide range of industries with its own distinct growth drivers. PolyOne s distribution segment helps in building customer relationships and is a high return business. The main risk to the investment case is abrupt increases in input costs as they can only be passed on with a time lag. Some of the industries that PolyOne serves are also cyclical in nature. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 PolyOne Corporation PolyOne Corporation MSCI USA Materials /Chemicals Market Value (mill.) 2,283 Price 28.60 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 1,155 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 3,438 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 3,771 3,836 3,378 3,340 3,230 3,524 3,686 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 297 249 296 307 268 317 337 Net Income (reported - mill.) 94 78 145 165 174 180 210 Equity 977 776 704 725 599 635 775 Return on Equity (%) 9.6 % 8.9 % 19.5 % 23.1 % 26.2 % 29.3 % 29.8 % EPS 1.1 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 Book value per share 10.3 8.7 8.3 8.8 7.4 8.6 8.8 DPS 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Price/Earnings 32.4 44.6 19.5 16.4 20.9 11.8 10.8 Price/Book Value 3.4 4.4 3.8 3.7 5.9 3.3 3.2 EV/EBIT 13.6 17.4 12.5 12.2 17.2 10.8 10.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 1.3 % 2.5 % 2.8 %
Roper Technologies Company description: Roper is a diversified technology company providing engineered products and solutions for global niche markets including software information systems. An acquisition-driven business model with a decentralized structure. Roper was established in 1992 and is a member of S&P500. Why invested? Roper generates very strong cash flow and uses that cash flow to acquire companies with strong niche positions. Management has proven a strong capability in allocate capital. Over the last 10 years the portfolio of companies has shifted towards higher growth areas within medical and technology end markets. An open shareholder structure, a cash-focused corporate culture and strong operating metrics. We believe in continued high growth both organically and from acquisitions. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Roper Technologies, Inc. Roper Technologies, Inc. MSCI USA Industrials /Industrial Conglomerates Market Value (mill.) 27,566 Price 266.52 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 4,853 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 32,419 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 3,238 3,549 3,582 3,790 4,607 5,169 5,337 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 846 1,002 1,034 1,063 1,210 1,427 1,502 Net Income (reported - mill.) 538 646 696 659 972 950 1,026 Equity 4,213 4,755 5,299 5,789 6,864 7,764 8,636 Return on Equity (%) 12.8 % 14.4 % 13.8 % 11.9 % 15.4 % 13.0 % 12.5 % EPS 5.4 6.4 6.9 6.4 9.4 11.7 12.1 Book value per share 42.4 47.5 52.5 56.9 67.0 74.4 81.6 DPS 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 Price/Earnings 25.8 24.4 27.7 28.5 27.6 22.7 22.0 Price/Book Value 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 EV/EBIT 18.8 17.3 21.1 22.8 25.9 22.7 21.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
S&P Global Inc. Company description S&P Global provides benchmarks and ratings, analytics, data, and research services for the capital, commodities, and commercial markets worldwide. It is a collection of market-leading companies, consisting of two leading rating agencies, a dominant index provider, a market-data provider and a leading commodity price supplier Why invested? Rating agencies operates in a wide market, benefiting from high market share, economies of scale, network effects and operational leverage. The business is cyclical although parts of the business has great visibility and stable revenues from subscription based services. High barriers to entry, large amounts of data and knowledge accumulated over a longer period by the current players. Potential for margin expansion, as costs are mainly fixed. They are to some extent able to exert some pricing power, often annual single digit price increases. Good free cash flow, can be used for acquisitions or returned to shareholders. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 S&P Global, Inc. S&P Global, Inc. MSCI USA Financials /Capital Markets Market Value (mill.) 42,638 Price 169.94 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 1,458 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 44,096 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 4,875 5,051 5,313 5,661 6,063 6,340 6,689 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 1,625 1,808 1,945 2,360 2,794 3,079 3,301 Net Income (reported - mill.) 812-293 1,156 2,106 1,496 1,984 2,235 Equity 1,301 488 194 650 711 888 1,233 Return on Equity (%) 62.4 % -32.8 % 339.0 % 499.1 % 219.8 % 248.1 % 210.7 % EPS 2.8-1.0 4.2 7.9 5.8 8.5 9.4 Book value per share 4.8 1.8 0.7 2.5 2.8 3.7 6.2 DPS 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.1 Price/Earnings 27.8-87.8 23.4 13.5 29.3 19.9 18.2 Price/Book Value 16.3 49.6 135.2 42.9 60.5 45.7 27.6 EV/EBIT 13.5 12.9 15.5 13.1 16.5 14.3 13.4 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.0 % 1.2 % 1.2 %
Sherwin-Williams Company description The Sherwin-Williams Co. engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, and sale of paint, coatings, and related products. It operates through the following segments: The Americas Group, Consumer Brands Group and Performance Coatings Group. Why invested? The third largest paint manufacturer in the world with no.1 position in the US. A very robust business model which can be expanded outside the US. Relatively stable gross margins through cycles. Scale, distribution network and brand awareness gives them a unique position relative to their competitors. The recently closed acquisition of Valspar will further increase their market position in the US. The US paint cycle, Valspar synergies and the company s pricing action will possibly contribute to enhanced earnings going forward. 300 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Sherwin-Williams Company Sherwin-Williams Company MSCI USA Materials /Chemicals Market Value (mill.) 36,838 Price 393.46 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 9,490 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 46,328 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 10,186 11,130 11,339 11,856 14,984 17,647 18,578 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 1,156 1,294 1,623 1,780 1,948 2,623 2,962 Net Income (reported - mill.) 748 861 1,049 1,133 1,814 1,396 1,868 Equity 1,775 996 868 1,878 3,692 4,410 5,204 Return on Equity (%) 42.1 % 62.1 % 112.6 % 82.5 % 65.1 % 34.5 % 38.9 % EPS 7.3 8.8 11.2 12.0 18.7 19.1 21.9 Book value per share 17.7 10.5 9.4 20.2 39.3 44.7 55.0 DPS 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 Price/Earnings 25.3 30.0 23.3 22.4 22.0 20.6 17.9 Price/Book Value 10.4 25.0 27.6 13.3 10.4 8.8 7.2 EV/EBIT 17.2 21.3 16.1 14.9 25.3 17.7 15.6 Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 % 0.8 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Signature Bank Company description Signature Bank was founded in 2001 by former bankers from Republic New York Corporation. Local bank operating in the New York area. Why invested? Signature is organised in banking teams led by senior bankers with no middle management. There are no horizontal silos based on products segments. The bank typically targets companies with revenues of less than 200m and its owners and management. Signature is very selective in its underwriting, and as a result has significantly lower loan losses than comparable banks. The bank also operates with a very lean cost structure. It has a deposit growth first strategy, leading to a loan to deposit ratio of 80%, but slightly lower NIMs as 80% are commercial deposits with slightly higher rates. Signature has a history of exceptional growth in earning assets of 30% p.a. since 2002. The risk are high geographic concentration, concentrated exposure to commercial real estate and increasing compliance cost as bank grows its asset base. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Signature Bank Signature Bank MSCI USA Financials /Banks Market Value (mill.) 5,691 Price 102.81 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 4,887 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 10,578 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 798 967 1,150 1,368 1,521 1,314 1,368 Net Income (reported - mill.) 229 297 373 396 387 496 614 Equity 1,800 2,496 2,892 3,612 4,032 4,352 4,790 Return on Equity (%) 12.7 % 11.9 % 12.9 % 11.0 % 9.6 % 11.4 % 12.8 % EPS 4.8 6.0 7.3 7.4 7.1 9.1 11.3 Book value per share 38.1 49.6 55.7 66.1 73.3 78.6 87.2 DPS - - - - - 1.1 2.2 Price/Earnings 22.6 21.2 21.1 20.4 19.3 11.3 9.1 Price/Book Value 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.1 % 2.2 %
SiteOne Landscape Supply Company description SiteOne Landscape Supplies is the largest wholesale distributor of landscaping products in the US. The company is four times the size of its closest competitor and is the only company in the industry with a national footprint. The company was spun out of John Deere and listed in May 2016. Why invested? The new management in SiteOne who joined the company in 2014 has been given the mandate to consolidate the landscape supply industry. The company operates in a highly fragmented market with significant benefits from being a player with scale. The company generates strong cash flows that can be used to buy smaller competitors in order to broaden its product offering and increase its geographical footprint. Through consolidating suppliers, better category management and pricing, and improved sales force performance there is substantial potential for margin improvements and acceleration of organic growth. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 maj-16 maj-17 maj-18 SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. MSCI USA Industrials /Trading Companies & Distributors Market Value (mill.) 2,257 Price 55.27 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 566 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 2,823 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2016 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 1,078 1,177 1,648 1,648 1,862 2,114 2,352 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 41 42 69 69 93 127 158 Net Income (reported - mill.) 24 22 31 31 55 72 84 Equity - 271 149 149 213 301 396 Return on Equity (%) 25.7 % 23.9 % 21.2 % EPS 0.6-0.1-3.0-3.0 1.3 2.0 2.1 Book value per share - 2.0 3.8 3.8 5.3 7.1 9.0 DPS - - - - - - - Price/Earnings 28.1 26.8 Price/Book Value 7.8 6.2 EV/EBIT - - 20.6 20.6 39.6 22.3 17.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermo Fisher Company description Thermo Fisher sells tools and services used in the discovery of new chemical and biological pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, academic research and food and environmental testing. It effectively helps labs do their research, diagnostics and testing more efficiently. Thermo s instruments become an integral part of customers workflow and require them to purchase consumables from Thermo for their everyday activities. Why invested? Thermo operates in markets with strong growth trends. The development of biological medicines, advanced genetic diagnostics and food testing are areas where we see large investments by a number of companies and they all need Thermo s tools to be competitive. Through a number of significant acquisitions Thermo has built a very broad product portfolio, making them a preferred supplier for many clients at the same time as its business is very diversified in terms of growth opportunities and risk. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. MSCI USA Health Care /Life Sciences Tools & Services Market Value (mill.) 90,092 Price 223.79 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 17,651 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 107,743 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 13,090 16,890 16,965 18,274 20,918 24,085 25,192 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 1,799 2,348 2,492 2,859 3,267 5,597 6,078 Net Income (reported - mill.) 1,279 1,896 1,980 2,025 2,228 2,952 3,627 Equity 16,856 20,548 21,350 21,539 25,413 27,615 30,157 Return on Equity (%) 7.6 % 10.1 % 9.5 % 9.4 % 9.5 % 11.1 % 12.6 % EPS 3.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.6 11.1 12.2 Book value per share 46.6 51.3 53.4 54.7 63.3 68.5 74.7 DPS 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Price/Earnings 31.9 26.6 28.8 27.7 34.0 20.3 18.3 Price/Book Value 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.0 EV/EBIT 25.2 27.1 27.7 25.1 29.1 19.3 17.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
UnitedHealth Group Company description UnitedHealth Group is the nation's largest managed care company, with nearly 70 million medical lives in all 50 states. They serve key markets and geographic regions with a broad range of health benefit products and services for both consumers and benefit sponsors. They serve people in employer-sponsored health plans, those enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid, as well as those who purchase their own health plans. Why invested? UnitedHealth Group has leading positions in important sectors of the commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid markets that are leveraged by its rapidly growing services businesses. UnitedHealth s competitive advantages include its national footprint and extensive provider network, its enormous distribution system, and decades of experience managing the care for tens of millions of Americans. The customers are provided access to more affordable medical care, treatment, and program offerings through its network of physicians, hospitals, and specialty care facilities. US health care has grown by 4-7 % p.a, and going forward mid single digit yield increases in commercial risk based businesses is expected. Performance - last 5 years 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UnitedHealth Group Incorporated MSCI USA Health Care /Health Care Providers & Services Market Value (mill.) 239,662 Price 249.12 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 23,290 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 262,952 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 122,497 130,500 157,129 184,885 201,168 225,496 243,851 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) - - - - - 17,304 19,199 Net Income (reported - mill.) 5,625 5,619 5,813 7,017 10,558 11,926 13,560 Equity 32,149 32,454 33,830 38,274 47,776 54,532 60,791 Return on Equity (%) 17.5 % 17.4 % 17.5 % 19.5 % 24.5 % 23.3 % 23.5 % EPS 5.5 5.7 6.0 7.3 10.7 12.8 14.6 Book value per share 32.5 34.0 35.5 40.2 49.3 55.4 61.8 DPS 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.6 Price/Earnings 13.7 17.7 19.6 22.1 20.6 19.5 17.1 Price/Book Value 2.3 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 EV/EBIT - - - - - 15.2 13.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.5 % 1.3 % 1.4 % 1.4 %
VISA Inc Company description VISA is a technology company connecting consumers, businesses, banks and government to electronic payments in more than 200 countries. It offers fraud protection for account holders and rapid payments for merchants. They operate one of the worlds most advanced processing networks VisaNet. Performance - last 5 years 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Why invested? Visa Inc. Class A MSCI USA Visa is a global payment technology company with tremendous growth opportunities. Worldwide 85% of payments are still cash payments. With a market share of more than 50% the company is surrounded by a wide moat difficult for competitors to replicate. Globally recognized brands, global digital payments ecosystem, safety and security solutions embedded in the network. Scale and network economics makes alternatives costly and enables the established companies like VISA and Mastercard to earn healthy profits. Visa Inc. Class A Information Technology /IT Services Market Value (mill.) 296,785 Price 131.94 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 3,430 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 300,215 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (September) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Sales (mill.) 12,702 13,880 15,082 18,358 20,609 22,824 25,368 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 8,150 9,078 10,024 12,163 13,561 15,479 17,462 Net Income (reported - mill.) 5,421 6,313 5,929 6,467 9,942 12,041 13,607 Equity 27,413 29,842 32,912 32,760 34,006 34,797 36,514 Return on Equity (%) 19.8 % 22.1 % 18.9 % 19.7 % 29.8 % 35.0 % 38.2 % EPS 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 Book value per share 11.1 12.3 11.6 12.0 12.9 16.0 18.2 DPS 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 Price/Earnings 24.8 27.1 33.7 39.0 35.2 24.7 21.3 Price/Book Value 4.8 5.7 7.1 8.8 11.7 8.2 7.3 EV/EBIT 15.8 18.1 21.1 21.5 26.4 19.4 17.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Wells Fargo Company description Wells Fargo is among the top 3 US banks. It is the third largest bank measured by assets and by deposits. Measured by retail deposits it is number one. The bank was founded in 1852 in California. In 2008 it acquired Wachovia and became a bank with a national footprint. 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years Why invested? We have invested in Wells Fargo due to its low cost of funding. The bank has a large deposit base, both retail and commercial. These deposits are very sticky and pays very low interest rates giving Wells Fargo access to cheap funding of its loans. Since the financial crisis return on equity has declined due to low interest rates and increased capital and liquidity requirements. Should interest rates increase, yields on the bank s assets should increase more than deposits costs resulting in higher net interest margins and ROE. Wells Fargo generates half of its income from fees and is known to have a conservative credit culture. The loan book is very diversified, reducing risk. Wells Fargo is well capitalized and has a 2.5% dividend yield. 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 Wells Fargo & Company Wells Fargo & Company MSCI USA Financials /Banks Market Value (mill.) 216,910 Price 46.08 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 307,983 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 524,893 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 90,166 89,216 91,906 96,152 100,049 86,924 86,716 Net Income (reported - mill.) 21,878 23,057 22,894 21,938 22,183 20,663 23,487 Equity 170,142 184,394 192,998 199,581 206,936 195,515 190,237 Return on Equity (%) 12.9 % 12.5 % 11.9 % 11.0 % 10.7 % 10.6 % 12.3 % EPS 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 5.1 Book value per share 29.3 31.9 33.5 34.9 37.1 37.6 39.2 DPS 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 Price/Earnings 11.7 13.4 13.2 13.8 14.8 10.7 9.0 Price/Book Value 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.5 % 3.6 % 3.9 %
3M Company description: 3M is a high quality «multi-industrial» with a global reach. For more than a century, innovation has been the hallmark of 3M s growth, reflecting a culture of shared ideas and technology. Worldwide-leading brands like «Post-It» and «Scotch». 3M has a very diverse range of businesses, ranging from industrial-type products to consumer and health products. Why invested? 3M s strong innovation power lies at the core of the company s ability to grow top line. Emerging markets constitute close to 50 per cent of earnings and will be an important long term driver. Operating and financial discipline resulting in strong free cash flow and high return on capital. Compared to many other industrial companies, 3M s topline is less cyclical due to it s diverse end-market exposure. 250 200 150 100 50 Performance - last 5 years 0 dec-13 dec-14 dec-15 dec-16 dec-17 3M Company 3M Company MSCI USA Industrials /Industrial Conglomerates Market Value (mill.) 110,949 Price 190.54 Price currency USD Net debt (mill.) 11,323 Reporting currency USD Enterprise Value (mill.) 122,272 FX rate (NOK) 8.66 Year end (December) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Sales (mill.) 30,871 31,821 30,274 30,109 31,657 32,695 33,234 EBIT (Operating Income - mill.) 6,660 7,120 6,871 7,019 7,354 7,743 8,171 Net Income (reported - mill.) 4,659 4,956 4,833 5,050 4,858 5,362 6,306 Equity 17,502 13,109 11,429 10,298 11,563 10,084 10,884 Return on Equity (%) 26.6 % 32.4 % 39.4 % 46.5 % 44.4 % 49.5 % 60.1 % EPS 6.7 7.5 7.6 8.2 7.9 10.0 10.8 Book value per share 26.4 20.6 18.8 17.3 19.4 16.6 18.2 DPS 2.5 3.4 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.4 5.8 Price/Earnings 20.9 21.9 19.9 21.9 29.7 19.1 17.6 Price/Book Value 5.3 8.0 8.0 10.3 12.1 11.5 10.5 EV/EBIT 15.1 15.9 15.2 17.0 21.0 15.8 15.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 % 2.1 % 2.7 % 2.5 % 2.0 % 2.9 % 3.0 %
ODIN USA - 28/12/2018 Security (Company) Currency Market Number of shares Market price Cost price Market value Unrealised gain (loss) % of assets under management Local currency NOK 1000 NOK 1000 NOK 1000 Booking Holdings USD Nasdaq Ngs 3 589 1 711,79 51 557 53 610 2 053 4,0 Dollar General Corp USD New York 47 927 106,63 31 530 44 595 13 065 3,4 Home Depot USD New York 35 292 169,20 45 413 52 108 6 695 3,9 Marriott Int'l A USD Nasdaq Ngs 49089 106,73 40938 45719 4 781 3,4 NIKE B USD New York 23246 72,86 10902 14780 3 877 1,1 Total Consumer Discretionary 180 341 210 811 30 471 15,8 Anheuser-Busch ADR. USD New York 42 370 66,15 37 106 24 458-12 648 1,8 Total Consumer Staples 37 106 24 458-12 648 1,8 First Republic Bank USD New York 53 297 89,20 39 372 41 485 2 114 3,1 Marsh & McLennan Cos USD New York 67 007 78,61 41 387 45 965 4 578 3,5 S&P Global Inc USD New York 35 435 167,12 43 271 51 676 8 405 3,9 Signature Bank USD Nasdaq Ngs 26136 102,66 31001 23412-7 589 1,8 Wells Fargo & co USD New York 60649 45,73 27113 24202-2 911 1,8 Total Financials 182 143 186 740 4 597 14,0 Henry Schein USD Nasdaq Ngs 78 288 77,46 47 894 52 917 5 023 4,0 Medtronic USD New York 56 568 89,41 37 239 44 135 6 896 3,3 Thermo Fisher Scientific USD New York 34 323 220,79 49 266 66 127 16 861 5,0 UnitedHealth Group USD New York 25 705 245,42 39 428 55 049 15 621 4,1 Total Health Care 173 828 218 228 44 401 16,4 3M USD New York 29 819 190,46 49 499 49 559 60 3,7 Roper Technologies USD New York 21 865 264,07 40 439 50 384 9 945 3,8 Siteone Landscape Supply USD New York 68 460 54,36 27 330 32 474 5 145 2,4 Smith (A.O.) Corp USD New York 25 000 43,00 9 786 9 381-406 0,7 Total Industrials 127 054 141 798 14 744 10,7 Accenture A USD New York 39 236 139,54 43 488 47 776 4 288 3,6 Ansys USD Nasdaq Ngs 36 958 141,24 36 617 45 550 8 934 3,4 CDW Corp USD Nasdaq Ngs 58000 79,07 42114 40019-2 095 3,0 Cognizant Tech Solutions USD Nasdaq Ngs 78 778 62,66 42 935 43 075 140 3,2 Oracle USD New York 91 986 45,07 33 875 36 177 2 302 2,7 Visa A USD New York 55 121 130,26 45 196 62 657 17 460 4,7 Total Information Technology 244 225 275 254 31 029 20,7 Ball Corp USD New York 147 567 44,91 46 070 57 831 11 761 4,3 Polyone Corp USD New York 129978 28,20 44500 31982-12 517 2,4 Sherwin-Williams Co USD New York 15 071 389,75 41 015 51 257 10 242 3,9 Total Materials 131 584 141 070 9 486 10,6 Alphabet C USD Nasdaq Ngs 6 890 1 039,70 53 370 62 510 9 141 4,7 Facebook A USD Nasdaq Ngs 31 589 133,84 43 142 36 893-6 249 2,8 Total Telecommunication Services 96 512 99 404 2 892 7,5 Total portfolio 1 172 792 1 297 762 124 971 97,5
About ODIN
Investment Objective Long term value creation
Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price Benjamin Franklin
Om ODIN USA C Aktiefonden ODIN USA investerar i utvalda amerikanska bolag i olika typer av sektorer och branscher. Detta betyder att du som kund inte behöver fundera på vilken sektor eller vilken aktie på den amerikanska marknaden som du skal investera i. Genom aktiefonden ODIN USA kan du ta del i värdeskapandet som sker i USA. Fonden har andelsklasser. Fakta om fonden Ansvarig förvaltare Förvaltare sedan 2016-10-31 Referensindex Harald Nissen och Vigdis M. Almestad MCSI USA NR USD Basvaluta NOK Förvaltningsavgift 2 % Tecknings-/inlösenavgift 0 % Minsta teckningsbelopp 3 000 NOK 59
Om förvaltarna Senior portföljförvaltare Vigdis Almestad är ansvarig förvaltare för ODIN USA tillsammans med Harald Nissen. Hon började arbeta på ODIN i januari 2016. Hon är också ansvarig förvaltare för ODIN Norge från den 15 augusti 2016. Vigdis är civilekonom och har en MBA från NHH Norges Handelshögskola samt är auktoriserad finansanalytiker (AFA). Hon har 25 års erfarenhet från förvaltning och har arbetat i Avanse Forvaltning, Folketrygdfondet och Finansdepartementet bland annat. Portföljförvaltare Harald Nissen är ansvarig förvaltare för ODIN USA tillsammans med Vigdis Almestad. Han är också medförvaltare av ODIN Global sedan den 1 september 2016 Harald har arbetat på ODIN sedan 2010. Harald har en bachelor i ekonomi och statsvetenskap från University of Warwick och master i internationell politik och ekonomi från London School of Economics. Harald har tidigare arbetat som konsult inom IT och teknologi.
Värt att tänka på Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen, förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om aktiekurserna faller. Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta eller fullständiga. Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard. Faktablad och informationsbroschyr för fonden hittar du på hemsidan under http://odinfonder.se/vara-fonder/aktiefonder/odinusa-c/