Samhällsekonomisk analys av Stockholms trängselskatter

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1 Samhällsekonomisk analys av Stockholms trängselskatter Jonas Eliasson Professor i transportsystemanalys, KTH Föreståndare Centrum för Transportstudier

2 Stockholms trängselskatter 1-2 SEK per passage, beroende på tidpunkt Ingen avgift kvällar/helger Max 6 kr/dag

3 Varaktig trafikminskning ( 2% över snittet) dashed line between charging (before charges) (with charges) (no charges) (no charges) (with charges) 3 28 (with charges) 29 (with charges) 2-19% -17% -17% -16% -28% -23% -22% -21% -2% -21% -24% -21% -2% -17% -18% -17% jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec -19% -17% -22% -19% -16% -19% -17% 1

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5 3-5% mindre kötid, minskad restidsvariation K ötid, e fte rmiddagsrusning Restidsförlängning (em) 3% em 25 em 26 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % inreinf artin Inner main roads, inbound inreinf artut inners gata inners tads ledn Inner tads streetsinner main roads, Inner main northbound roads, outbound inners leds Inner tads main roads, southbound

6 Samhällsekonomiska effekter av trängselavgifter Avgifter Anpassningskostnader Tidsvinster Intäkter

7 Poster i analysen Konsumentöverskott Restidsvinster anpassningskostnader betalda avgifter Intäkter Inkl skatteeffekt (MCPF)? Minskade bensinskatteintäkter Kostnader investering och drift Minskade utsläpp och olyckor Effekter på kollektivtrafik Ökade intäkter utbudskostnader ökad trängsel EJ i kalkylen: Krånglet att betala avgifterna Stadsmiljöeffekter Långsiktiga arbets- och bostadsmarknadseffekter Minskad trängsel ger snabbare bussar

8 Kostnader för Stockholmsförsökets olika delar Trängselskattesystemet Utvecklingskostnader Drift och avveckling Väginvesteringar Kronofogde/Skatteverket Summa Permanentning Utökad kollektivtrafik Inköp av bussar Drift utökad busstrafik SL:s investeringar Drift utökad spårtrafik Infartsparkeringar Summa 22 /år Permanentning Utvärdering och information Miljöavgiftskansliet Utvärdering Information Övrigt Summa Utgifter hela försöket Kostnad exkl. restvärden 4 /år

9 Beräkning av restidsvinster Trafikvolymer 25/26 Restider 25/ Travel time 26 Link flow Link flow Travel time 25 Trafikvolymer och restider uppmätta för varje 15-minutersperiod Tidsvärde: 122 kr/h per fordon 35% tjänsteresenärer+ yrkestrafik, 1,26 personer/bil Försummar heterogenitet i tidsvärderingar underskattar vinsterna

10 Beräkning av konsumentöverskott Rule of a half (l länk, r tidsperiod): W = ½Σlr(Tlr+T1lr)(θtlr - θt1lr - clr) = - ΣlrT1lrclr + ΣlrT1lrθ(tlr-t1lr) - ½Σlr (Tlr-T1lr)(clr - θtlr + θt1lr) toll revenues time gains for car users loss for evicted car users Beräkning på länknivå är en approximation (ska beräknas på start/målpunktsnivå), men möjliggör bättre utnyttjande av mätdata

11 Fördelning av tidsvinster 5% 3% % 11% 35% 24% -4% 4% 1% 6%

12 Konsumentöverskott million SEK per year Shorter travel times More reliable travel times Adjustment costs (Loss for evicted car drivers and gain for new car drivers) Paid congestion charges Consumer surplus, total Benefit/loss

13 Minskade olyckor och utsläpp Effekter beräknade från länkflöden med hjälp av standardsamband million SEK per year Benefit/loss Less greenhouse gas emissions 64 Health and environmental effects 22 Increased traffic safety 125 Other effects, total 211

14 Offentliga intäkter och kostnader Paid congestion charges Operational costs for charging system (incl. reinvestment and maintenance) Increased public transit revenues Necessary increase in public transport capacity Decreased revenues from fuel taxes Decreased road maintenance costs Public costs and revenues, total Marginal cost of public funds, shadow price of public funds

15 Kostnader för trängsel och kapacitetsökningar i kollektivtrafiken Standardsamband: nödvändig utbudsökning för att kompensera ökad trängsel skulle kosta 64 MSEK/år Verklighet: nyinsatta tåg kostade 63 MSEK/år Inte tillräckligt: trängseln ökade något, ca 15 MSEK/år Trängsel- och utbudskostnader minskar dock på längre sikt

16 Sammanfattning million SEK per year Loss/gain Shorter travel times More reliable travel times Loss for evicted car drivers, gain for new car drivers Paid congestion charges Increased transit crowding Consumer surplus, total Less greenhouse gas emissions Health and environmental effects Increased traffic safety Other effects, total Paid congestion charges Increased public transit revenues Decreased revenues from fuel taxes Decreased road maintenance costs Necessary increase in public transport capacity Operational costs for charging system Public costs and revenues, total Marginal cost of public funds Opportunity cost of public funds Total socioeconomic surplus, excl. investment costs

17 Slutsatser Samhällsekonomiskt överskott 714 /år Inklusive driftskostnader, exklusive investering Investerings- och startkostnadre ca 2 Samhällsekonomiskt överskott om systemet lever längre än 3-4 år 2 års livstid ger nettonuvärdeskvot ca 5

18 Inget är mer praktiskt än en bra teori.

19 Fördelningseffekter: Olika människor varje dag Habitual (5 trips/week) 29% Seldom (< 1 trip/week) 25% Private cars across cordon Frequent (4 trips/week) 14% Occasional (1-3 trips/week) 32%

20 Direct consumer surplus: Private vs. professional traffic Private Business Professional Time gains Adaptation costs Paid charges Net effect Prof. + bsn. traffic around 35% of crossings, but get over 6% of CS benefits

21 Congestion charges an issue for everybody or just a few? % of private cars in Stockholm county 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Total charge (SEK) per 2 weeks A given day, around 5% of private trips are affected Over 2 weeks, 43% of private cars in the county pay at least once Around 2% pay average return fare each day (27 SEK/2 weeks).4% pay iconic commuter s charge 4 SEK/2 weeks %

22 Occasional vs. habitual drivers Habitual (5 trips/week), organisation 21% Seldom (< 1 trip/week), organisation 5% Share of revenues per total charge paid over 2 weeks Conversion to no. of trips based on average fare per day 27 SEK Occasional (1-3 trips/week), private 19% Habitual (5 trips/week), private 17% Frequent (4 trips/week), organisation 6% Frequent (4 trips/week), private 8% Occasional (1-3 trips/week), organisation 9% 38% of revenues come from habitual drivers ( 5 return trips per week) Seldom (< 1 trip/week), private 15% of which 2% are habitual commuters, the rest deliveries etc. 2% of revenues come from seldom drivers (<= 1 trip/week) 27% come from private occasional & frequent drivers (1-4 trips/week) this might be those who changed the most

23 Rich lose more than poor before revenue recycling Direct effects Rich lose 4 times more than poor Net effect after revenue recycling

24 Summary

25 Vart tog bilisterna vägen? Car work trips: Trips Discretionary - to Discretionary Ess. "disappeared" Work - to transit - 24% changed to transit, - 1% changed route Car discr. trips: Discretionary remaining - 21% changed to other things - 1% changed route Work - remaining Prof essional traf f ic "disappeared" Professional traffic: - 15% disappeared (route and logistics changes) Prof essional traf f ic remaining No measurable effect on retail

26 Improved bus services 14 new bus lines 18 lines got improved frequency 6 MSEK for new buses Running costs 34 MSEK/year Around 14 pass./day on new buses 1% of transit trips across cordon 84% existing transit users 1% new trips 6% old car users

27 CBA for improved bus services MSEK/year Improved bus services Consumer surplus (time gains etc.) 181 Running costs (incl. lease of buses) -341 Marg. cost and shadow price of public funds -181 Net surplus per year -341 Capital costs for investments -3 Marg. cost and shadow price of public funds -2 Net surplus per year incl. capital costs -346

28 Effects of other factors than the charges Estimated time series model for vehicles crossing the cordon Other factors decreased cordon crossings -.9% no adjustments needed Variable Change Elasticity Effect on cordon crossings Employment +4.2% % Fuel price +8.6% % No. cars per employed -3.4% % -.9% Total 7 Södra länken adj. cordon def Congestion charges