Globala drivkrafter. Global miljöförändring oroande trender. Utmaningar och Möjligheter med storskalig produktion av biodrivmedel i tropiska länder

Storlek: px

Starta visningen från sidan:

Download "Globala drivkrafter. Global miljöförändring oroande trender. Utmaningar och Möjligheter med storskalig produktion av biodrivmedel i tropiska länder"

Göran Falk
för 7 år sedan
Visningar:

1 Utmaningar och Möjligheter med storskalig produktion av biodrivmedel i tropiska länder Biodrivmedel i energieffektiva fordon och vägen till hållbara transporter. Världen satsar stort vilket roll vill Sverige spela? BAFF workshop 18e juni 2007 Johan Rockström Director Stockholm Environment Institute & 1 2 Globala drivkrafter DRIVKRAFTER Snabb ekonomisk tillväxt (40 % snabbare än befolkningsökning sedan 1950) Fortsatt befolkningsökning (95 % i utvecklingsländer) Förändrade dieter Energibehov från biomassa Fattigdom och undernäring (850 Miljoner undernärda, 1.1 Miljarder fattiga) 70 % fattiga på landsbygden Klimatförändring Utarmning av ekosystemtjänster 3 4 Global miljöförändring oroande trender Kilimanjaro 1970 Kilimanjaro 2000 Courtesy Will Steffen,

BAFF workshop 18e juni 2007 Johan Rockström Director Stockholm Environment Institute & 1 2 Globala drivkrafter DRIVKRAFTER Snabb ekonomisk tillväxt (40 % snabbare än befolkningsökning sedan

2 Global energy consumption (2001) Other New 5% Modern bioenergy 11% Traditional biomass 68% Large hydro 16% Biomass 11% Nuclear 7% Other 3% Coal 22% Oil 35% Natural gas 22% 7 Sub-Saharan Africa energy consumption (2001) Excluding South Africa Nuclear 0% Oil 13% Gas 3% 8 Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004 Hydro 2% Coal 11% combustible and waste 71% Hydro 1% Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004 Including South Africa Coal 21% Nuclear 1% Oil 13% Gas 3% combustible and waste 61% Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios (EJ/year) (scenarios of different farming system mixes, animal production mixes) Det tropiska argumentet 9 harvesting residues bioenergy crops North America Caribean & Latin America W.Europe E.Europe Near East & 410 North Africa sub-saharan Africa CIS & Baltic States East Asia Japan South Asia Oceania Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski March 2004 A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional Stockholm availability Resilience of biomass resources for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E Centre Potential in Oceania is 4-6 times projected primary energy use Crop Comparison of biofuel yields Seed yield (t/ha) Crop yield (t/ha) Biofuel yield (litre/ha) Energy yield (GJ/ha) Employment Generation and Sustainable Livelihoods (calculations are for Brazil) Sugarcane (juice) Palm oil Sweet sorghum Maize Jatropha Jobs Created per equivalent energy output (Oil = 1) 152 Oil 1 Hydroelectric 3 Coal 4 Cost of creating various jobs by industry type (1000 USD) Chemical Metallurgy Capital goods Consumer goods Soybean Source: Goldemberg, Jose (2002)

Assessment, 2004 Including South Africa Coal 21% Nuclear 1% Oil 13% Gas 3% combustible and waste 61% Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios (EJ/year) (scenarios of different

3 GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% -120% from grains, US/EU from sugar beets, EU from sugar cane, Brazil Biodiesel from from cellulosic rapeseed, feedstocks EU 13 A resilience and vulnerability approach to sustainability 14 Resilience provides capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function provides components for renewal and reorganisation following disturbance sustains capacity for adaptation and learning 15 Ekosystemtjänster Den välfärd ekosystem generar för oss människor 16 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Några nyckelslutsatser 60 % av studerade ekosystemtjänster utarmade under senaste 50 åren Att undvika sårbara lösningar Example: Levees on river systems increase risk of catastrophic floods More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and % of the world s coral reefs were lost and 20% degraded in the last decades 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last decades Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since Photos: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 18 3

maintaining function provides components for renewal and reorganisation following disturbance sustains capacity for adaptation and learning www.resalliance.

4 National rainfall index: Variation from trend (mm) Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production Agrarian Economies remain dependent on rainfall National rainfall index Cereal production Total cereal production - Variation from trend ('000 tons) Projected Blue Water Scarcity 2025 IWMI Podium analysis (de Fraiture, et al, 2000) 1/3rd of world population suffering from water scarcity already today Years Environmental Water Stress Source: CA study by IWMI, WRI, Kassel University, CA RR # Water for Food needs to meet the hunger MDG Increase to reach the Hunger Goal base line km year Data from A.Dai,

analysis (de Fraiture, et al, 2000) 1/3rd of world population suffering from water scarcity already today 2000 2025-200 -600-250 Years -800 19 20 Environmental Water Stress Source: CA study by IWMI,

5 Freshwater requirements all Developing countries Var finns möjligheterna, och var finns riskerna? 2200 km 3 /yr new water Dependence on green and blue water Agriculture is today one of the major forces behind global change, occupying 35% of the land area and it is by far the largest consumer of blue water withdrawal (70%), also altering water quality substantially Areas in green: agriculture mainly under rainfed Areas in blue: agriculture mainly under irrigation Circles depict total crop depletion August Foley et al Country/Region Markanvändning för skog och jordbruk, 2004 UNITS: Total Land Area Million ha Forest Area Agricultural Areas Cultivated Area Million ha share of total land area Million ha share of total land area Million ha share of total land area Total SADC % % 53 5,5% Brazil % % 67 7,9% China % % ,6% India % % ,1% United States % % ,2% EU % % 85 27,0% 29 Nord-Syd handel med biomassa: konflikt eller Synergi? marknad eller miljö? handel eller bistånd? lokalt eller globalt? mat eller bränsle? teknik eller beteende? effektivitet eller rättvisa? industri eller samhället? capital eller arbeta? 30 5

and it is by far the largest consumer of blue water withdrawal (70%), also altering water quality substantially Areas in green: agriculture mainly under rainfed Areas in blue: agriculture mainly

6 Bio-etanol från Sugarcane + Sweet sorghum FAOSTAT Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa Legend SLCR Pixels Annual Rainfall <800mm Annual Rainfall >800mm Kilometres Figure 5:12: SLCR Pixels and Annual Rainfall Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa Legend SLCR Areas International Areas National Areas (No Categories) National Areas (IUCN Categorised) Utmaningar, exemplet Rufiji One of the most striking changes in the River Basin is the flows to Ruaha National Park from 35 cumecs to 0 in the dry season The abstractin of water for irrigation is the main cause of these problems in the dry seasons. Not deforestation, pastoralism or decreased rainfall as previously thought. (IUCN, REMP report) Research for governance of social-ecological Kilometres systems 34 Figure 5.3: Distribution of Protected Areas and SLCR Pixels Nord-Syd-Syd samarbete Möjligheter Biomassa i syd (tropisk) är genomsnittlig 5x mer produktiv Landsbyggdsutveckling Effektivare användning-begränsade global resursbas Energi säkerhet Export utveckling samtidigt stimuleras inrikesmarknad Förbättrad hälso (inomhus miljö, ersättning av bly, ) Luftkvalitet Industri utveckling Klimat minska CO2 utsläpp Nya möjligheter för bönder, kvinnor, entrepreneurer Regional utveckling Fred: genom minskning av oljas vikt i världsekonomin 35 Nord-Syd-Syd samarbete Risker Utarmning av ekosystem, system kollaps pga storskaliga monokulturer Marginalisering av fattiga småskaliga bönder Ny typ av sårbarhet för svaga ekonomier (beroende av global efterfrågan, subventioner) Osäker långsiktig hållbarhet Geopolitiskt spel 36 6

Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa Legend SLCR Areas International Areas National Areas (No Categories) National Areas (IUCN Categorised) Utmaningar, exemplet Rufiji One of the most striking

7 Sugarcane characterisation of highest potential areas (Sources: SEI-led, EC-funded CARENSA project Land remaining during successive screening steps in the identification of suitable sugarcane growing regions (km2) Malawi Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Total Total land area Step in Analyses Overall suitability - Seasonal Land Cover Regions (from Miombo data set) Protected Areas (IUCN and national categorisations) Steep Slopes (> 16%) Global Land Cover (soils, competing uses) Existing Sugarcane Farms contiguous areas smaller than 500ha Unsuitable Soils Share of total 3.3% 4.8% 0.3% 2.3% 2.4% 37 Source-1: Watson, H.K. and Baijnath, S. (forthcoming) Expansion potential of sugar cane in southern Africa bioenergy implications. Source-2: Johnson et al (forthcoming) "Cane Energy for Sustainable Development and Economic Competitiveness in Southern Africa" 38 7

set) 7 422 49 064 4 639 35 460 96 585 Protected Areas (IUCN and national categorisations) 5 954 46 021 4 029 24 334 80 338 Steep Slopes (> 16%) 5 804 45 297 3 989 24 265 79 355 Global Land Cover

Relevanta dokument

Utmaningar och Möjligheter med storskalig produktion av bioenergi i tropiska länder

Utmaningar och Möjligheter med storskalig produktion av bioenergi i tropiska länder ENERGITINGET Älvsjömässan 12e mars 2008 Johan Rockström Professor, Director Stockholm Environment Institute & 1 2 Ett