1.Vad händer i världen? 2.Hållbara transporter 3.Fordon och drivmedel. En Planet Slutet System. alla Ej förhandlingsbart Naturlagar

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1 Agenda Energieffektiva fordon & Förnybara drivmedel 1.Vad händer i världen?.hållbara transporter 3.Fordon och drivmedel En möjlighet för Sverige! En Planet Slutet System Befolknings utveckling 6,6 6, billions Alla påverkar alla Ej förhandlingsbart Naturlagar BC, , 18 1,5 19, Global Oil Discoveries vs Usage Jeroen van der Veer January 4 6 My view is that easy oil has probably passed its peak. 1

2 Peak Production?? The Oil Triangle 6% of the remaining oil reserves. EU report on Security of Supply Dependency on Oil Imports 7% 9% Oil production in Norway Million Barrels/Day from existing oil fields Source: European Commission 4-5-4/LN Source: Norwegian Oil Reservate 4-1-7/LN Billion barrels per year U.S Petroleum, Production vs Imports The Oil Age Year 19 Year Year 1 Source: Grandfather Economic Reports

3 The Oil Age in perspective Global average temperature is increasing Year 1 Year Year 3 Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Projected Concentrations of CO Two to Four times the Pre-Industrial level Climate and CO have varied over time! Last 4 years from the Vostok Ice Core ppm X Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Klimat förändringen påverkar allt och alla! More frequent & severe draughts. Expanding deserts 3

4 Climate refugees Climate refugees North Pole 1973 North Pole 3 Loss of species The canary bird of our civilisation 4

5 Climate and CO have varied over time! Last 4 years from the Vostok Ice Core 1 5 ppm? 5 45 ppm X ppm X! Emissions (ton carbon per capita) Carbon emissions per capita 6. USA Max billion ton C/yr 8 billion people! 5. Canada, Australia, New Zealand 5 Kg C/capita Russia Industrial world Japan OECD Europe. Other EIT Middle East World Average 1. China Latin America Other Asia Developing world Africa India - 1,, 3, 4, 5, 6, Source: Chalmers 4-1-/LN Population (million) Vi måste planera för en fysisk brist på olja.. samtidigt måste vi dramatiskt minska alla utsläpp av fossil CO! /KS Slutet för oljan Framtiden för.. Transportsektorn? Transports & Oil Addiction in the OECD Other sectors Transport sector >7% /KS/BAFF 5

6 EU report on Security of Supply Dependency on Oil Imports 7% 9%! Transport sector s dependency on Oil 97%! Dependency on transports Growing China 1,3 billion inhabitants Source: European Commission Total stock of Light-duty Vehicles by region New Delhi A dream come true 7 Source: WBCSD, 4a. The Oil Age in persepctive Change (%) in EU greenhouse gas emissions by sector and pollutant ( ) Waste Agriculture Other (Non Energy) Other (Energy) Industry (Processes) Industry (Energy) Fugitive Emissions Energy Industries Transport CO Year 1 Year Year 3-4% -3% -% -1% % 1% % 3% Source: Erupean Environment Agency -4-1/JeL/BAFF 6

7 Change (%) in EU greenhouse gas emissions by sector and pollutant ( ) EU CO emissions -1 Waste Agriculture Change in EU5 CO emissions (million tons per year), -1 (EU forecast) Other (Non Energy) Other (Energy) Industry (Processes) 15 1 transport Industry (Energy) Fugitive Emissions Energy Industries Transport Total 5-5 industry electricity generation + energy transformation services households -4% -3% -% -1% % 1% % 3% -1 Source: Erupean Environment Agency -4-1/JeL/BAFF Source: EU Commission Carbon emissions per capita How much Gasoline-Diesel /capita? Emissions (ton carbon per capita) Source: Chalmers 4-1-/LN USA Canada, Australia, New Zealand Russia Japan OECD Europe Other EIT Middle East Max billion ton C/yr 8 billion people 5 Kg C/capita Industrial world World Average China Latin America Other Asia Developing world Africa India 1,, 3, 4, 5, 6, Population (million) 5 Kg of Carbon/Capita/year...equals to 85 Kg of CO Assuming 35% of CO emissions from transports Leaves 3 Kg of CO from transports/capita/year 5% is commercial => 15 Kg CO for private use 15 Kg of CO = 6 litres of Gasoline/year 54 litres of Diesel/year Emissions (ton carbon per capita) Carbon emissions per capita, 5 Source: Chalmers 4-1-/LN USA billion ton C/yr 8 billion people Canada, Australia, New Zealand 5 Kg C/capita 4. One litre of fossil gasoline/diesel /week 3. Russia Industrial world Japan OECD Europe. Other EIT Middle East World Average 1. China Latin America Other Asia Developing world Africa India - 1,, 3, 4, 5, 6, Population (million) 4-5-/KS5/BAFF We need a new way of thinking, to solve the problems caused by the old way of thinking Albert Einstein 7

8 What to do? Oil Dependency & Fossil CO 1. Curb the growth for transports, decoupling. Increase energy efficiency, dramatically 3. Large systems shift towards renewable fuels URGENCY for large scale global action Physical shortage of oil Chaos Accelerating climate change diverts resourses & hinders agroenergy Energieffektiva Fordon & Förnybara Drivmedel BioFuels for Transport: A Global Perspective OECD/IEA Three key messages OECD/IEA Biomass potential Global potential for biomass can be sufficient for >/3 of current global demand for transport energy CO reduction Cellulose based ethanol and synthesis gas has the potential to reduce 9-1% of fossil CO Well-to-Wheel. Sugarcane based ethanol provides already 85% net CO reduction Cost efficient Cellulose based ethanol and synthesis gas can be as cost efficient as any other major alternative to mitigate fossil CO. Sugarcane based ethanol is already cheaper then world market priced gasoline. Negative CO mitigation cost 5 4 Million 3 m3 1 U.S. Ethanol Production has tripled since 1 9 it will have increased sixfold Currently there are 111 Ethanol production units in the US and 75 more are under construction 8

9 EU Directive on BioFuels Transports Dependency on Oil 98% Dependency on Oil Imports 9% Urgent need for cellulosic feedstock Cellulose necessary 3,5% BioFuels 7 5,8% BioFuels 1 1 % BioFuels % BioFuels? (on an energy bases) 1 m Brazil USA Japan EU /LN USA can produce at least 4 million m3 of Cellulose Ethanol, on a sustainable basis US Ethanol strategy 35 EXISTING EMERGING ADVANCED Gallons 5 DT/acre Ethanol (Billions of gal/yr) Advanced Sugar Fundamental Grain Platform Advances in Mills -New Enzymes Lignocellulose -Pretreatment Processing -Fermentation and fermentation Cellulose Legislation Grain Year Source: Institute for local Self-Reliance 4-5-4/KS The Cellulose Potential McKinsey study CELLULOSIC ETHANOL SUGARCANE ETHANOL FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES FUEL EFFICIENT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 9

10 Hållbara transporter System perspektiv Hur utvecklar vi storskaliga system med Energieffektiva fordon på Hållbara BioDrivmedel? Drivkrafter? Hållbar Utveckling Fri från oljan Minimera CO Föredöme i världen Industriell utveckling Framtida hållbar välfärd /LN Hållbara transporter BioDrivmedelsteknik & Miljöfordon! En ny tillväxtindutri för Sverige! 1

11 Världsledande Fordon för förnybara drivmedel Cellulosa baserade biodrivmedel Utveckling av storsakliga volymer av biomassa Norden fri från olja 3 Innovationsprocesser för industriell utveckling Klimat- & utvecklingsfrågor i globalt perspektiv Fossil free Nordic countries 3 TWh 15 1 Energy eff. El - plug in Fossil energy Import Cellulose Grain Biogas RME Hur utvecklar vi storskaliga system med Energieffektiva fordon på Hållbara BioDrivmedel? TWh Heat & Electricity /LN We need a new way of thinking, When we choose fossil vehicles Petrol, Diesel, CNG, CTL, GTL (DME-FT) to solve the problems caused by the old way of thinking Albert Einstein 4-5-/KS5/BAFF 11

12 We lock the society into future fossil consumption and CO emissions! CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO 7 CO CO CO CO CO tons CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO 3 tons FlexiFuel in Sweden Fordon % OF NEW CAR SALES Early 8 1% OF NEW CAR SALES Early 7 35% OF NEW CAR SALES Early 9 FlexiFuel models ca 1% ca 5% /LN Nybilsförsäljning 7-6- A dynamic development Flexifuel development SWEDEN 85% Federal It took ten years to open the first 1 filling stations with E % % lower taxes Forced build out Free parking Congestion charges Conscious consumers The last 1 stations opened in the past three months Year 11 bonus Brazil Sweden Others 1

13 The dynamics of the market E1 + Plug In Hybrid -9% of sales in Brazil in 4 years > 9% of Ford Focus sales May 7 > 9% of Saab total orders May 7 Take-off for a European FlexiFuel Development! El Hybrid & BioEtanol 8 Världen kallar! 4-1-8/KS BioFuels The Nordic Challenge to 3 15 TWh 1 ENERGY EFFICIENCY Energy eff. El - plug in Fossil energy Import Cellulose Grain Biogas RME A Systems Approach SUSTAINABLE TRADE 5 CELLULOSE TWh Heat & Electricity 13

14 En ny industriell epok i en globaliserad värld! Nationell strategi Gröna Bilen E1 + Plug In Hybrid El Hybrid & BioEtanol /KS Nationell strategi Gröna Bilen Cellulose fuel strategy Hot Möjligheter Investerings behov inom energisektorn närmaste 1 åren, 1 Mdr USD Svensk kärnkraftsutbyggnad 15 miljarder SEK 1 TWh vindkraft i Sverige 6 miljarder SEK Cellulosa & miljöbilsutvecklingen kommer oberoende av oss, vi kan antingen bli säljare av teknik eller köpare (som med vindkraft) 6 miljarder SEK i BioRaff 3 TWh 14

15 Stor potential för cellulosa drivmedel! Energy eff. El - plug in Cellulose Sustainable energy nation Industrialisering av cellulosa drivmedel Förgasning Metanol / DME / FT / Etanol Grain Biogas RME TWh 1 Pilot Industrial Development Demo Combine TWh Värme, Pellets & El Industrial Plant I Industrial Plant II Industrial Plant III Industrial Plant IV Garantier för att matcha 5 anläggningar t.o.m Sustainable energy nation Industrialisering av cellulosa drivmedel Hydrolys Etanol Feedstock + cellulose Litre ethanol per ha/year Corn.5 + stover Pilot Industrial Development Demo Combine Industrial Plant I Industrial Plant II Industrial Plant III Industrial Plant IV Garantier för att matcha 5 anläggningar t.o.m Wheat straw Sugarcane bagasse Nationell strategi för Cellulosa Drivmedel! Förgasning och Hydrolys av cellulosa x Miljarder för forskning & utveckling x 5 Miljarder i garanti som matchning för Demo & Utvecklingsanläggningar Totalt max 14 miljarder till Ca 1 miljard/år Ca 1 milj m3 biomassa år Inga stora volymer cellulosa drivmedel de närmaste 1 åren! TWh TWh Heat & Electricity Energy eff. El - plug in Cellulose Grain Biogas RME 15

16 + 5 år av Nord-SYD samarbete McKinsey study 15 TWh 1 Energy eff. El - plug in Import Cellulose Grain Biogas RME SUGARCANE ETHANOL TWh Heat & Electricity AgroEnergy (5. ha for sugar cane*) Crushing of Sugar Cane Billion SEK invested/twh,5 Million Tons/year Juice Bagasse Cellulose Energy generation E-on, Windpower, Gotland (3-4 TWh el, 15- miljarder) 5, New Nuclear power Finland (5 TWh, 5 miljarder), Biofertilizer Process energy Bioraff from cellulose,35 TWh Ethanol, (,6 TWh El,,58 TWh Heat,5 Billions).1 Vinasse Ethanol/year ~. m 3 Electricity to the grid > GWh Ethanol from Sugar cane (1,3 TWh ethanol +, TWh El, 1,8 Billions) 1, (*) Yield= 1 ton Sugar Cane/hectare/year BioEnergi Potential 5 for different scenarios Main Sugar Cane Areas in Brazil Source: Smeets, Faaij 4 harvesting residues bioenergy crops North America Caribean & Latin America W.Europe E.Europe Near East & 41 North Africa CIS & Baltic States 1 1 East Asia Japan South Asia Oceania sub-saharan Africa C-S (8% land) harvest: april/november N-NE (~% land) harvest: sept/march Source: UNICA 16

17 Expansion Area in the Cerrado Region BioEnergi Potential 5 for different scenarios Brazilian Cerrado (million hectares) Total Area... 4 Area good for agriculture Area in use for cattle raising... (35) Occupied area (forests & plantations) (1) Available Area for expansion... 9 Objective for ethanol 3 Ethanol volumes 3 Mm3 Hybrid vehicles 3 M Source: Smeets, Faaij 4 harvesting residues bioenergy crops North America Caribean & Latin America W.Europe E.Europe Near East & 41 North Africa CIS & Baltic States 1 1 East Asia Japan South Asia Oceania sub-saharan Africa Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supplies Nationell strategi Gröna Bilen Cellulose fuel strategy AID Trade Africa has: - Highest vulnerability for expensive oil - Contributed least to Climate change - To pay the highest price for climate change + Best natural conditions, photosynthesis + Surplus land with water + Available labour force + Potential platform for large scale exports Hot Möjligheter Cellulosa & miljöbilsutvecklingen kommer oberoende av oss, vi kan antingen bli säljare av teknik eller köpare (som med vindkraft) Investerings behov inom energisektorn närmaste 1 åren, 3 Mdr USD Svensk kärnkraftsutbyggnad 15 miljarder SEK 1 TWh vindkraft i Sverige 6 miljarder SEK 6 miljarder SEK i BioRaff från skogen 3 TWh 6 miljarder SEK i Afrika 5 TWh Tillräckligt för ett fossil fritt Sverige & Norge 3! 17

18 National Ethanol development Programmes million hectares of land, cultivated for sugarcane by 5 Resulting in (absolute terms): Up to 8 new ethanol plants (5 ha/each) Up to 16 billion litres of ethanol per year Up to 4 MW additional installed capacity for the grid (4 hours 16 TWh/ renewable electricity/year) - 7 new jobs (grade of mechanisation) Up to 1-3 million people lifted from absolute poverty Up to US$ 7 Billion in revenues annually SEKAB intends to Develop first large African BioEnergy clusters Arrange financing for the industrial projects Guarantee access to international markets Develop power generation to a new magnitude Transfer knowledge to assure globally best practices Support the development of a domestic ethanol market Large industrial potential... Aid to Trade The Dar es Salaam Bus Rapid Transit Project DART global role model project and 1 million fossil free by 3! 18

19 Large industrial potential... Aid to Traid Feedstock Litre ethanol per ha/year Corn.5 + stover +1. Wheat straw global role model project and 1 million fossil free by 3! Sugarcane bagasse E1 + Plug In Hybrid El Hybrid & BioEtanol /KS Stockholm 4. taxis. bussar 1. m3 etanol /år Stor Stockholm: 53. ha 3. ha Spannmål 6. ha Sockerrör 15. ha Sockerrör + cellulosa bagass 1. ha + Nuvarande hybrider 7. ha + Plug-in hybrider 3. ha 19

20 London Sverige 3. taxis 1. buses 6. m3 ethanol /year 5 miljoner bilar 16 liter/år 8.. m3 etanol /år Grain 3. ha Sugar Cane 75. ha Sugar Cane + cellulose 5. ha + existing hybrids 35. ha + Plug-in hybrids 15. ha Spannmål 4.. ha Sockerrör 1.. ha Sockerrör + cellulosa bagass 65. ha + Nuvarande hybrider 45. ha + Plug-in hybrider. ha Hållbara transporter BioDrivmedelsteknik & Miljöfordon! Aid to Traid Aid to trade En ny tillväxtindutri för Sverige! Hållbar Utv Tillväxt & Varaktig Sysselsättning Fri från oljan Minimera CO Föredöme i världen Nord-Syd samarbete Industriell utveckling Framtida hållbar välfärd End of Oil! Future of What? Depends on us!

21 Nationell strategi för globalt ledarskap Gröna Bilen Cellulose fuel strategy AID Trade Challenge! It has to be done with sustainable practices! Ecologically & Socially A great opportunity for global impact! Tack! 1