Börs- och konjunkturanalys

Peter Malmqvist Börs- och konjunkturanalys Peter Malmqvist

Krisindikator 1 1280 640 320 160 Sweden, SIX, Index (SIXRX), Total Return, Close, SEK Index 80 40 20 10 5 3 80 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Krisindikator 2 6 Policy Rates 5 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Euro Zone, ECB Main refinancing, Fixed Rate, EUR Sweden, Repo Rate (Effective Dates), SEK United States, Fed Funds Target Rate, USD United Kingdom, Bank Rate Source: Reuters EcoWin

Krisindikator 3 8 Italy less Germany (2 year bond) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Krisindikator 4 Government bond, 10 y Percent 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 09 10 11 12 13 Sweden, SEK Ireland, EUR Italy, EUR Spain, EUR Portugal, EUR Greece, EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin

Andel av global import (%"!#$!"#$%&'(&)%*+'%&,'"#$%& (!"!#$ '%"!#$ '!"!#$ &%"!#$ &!"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$ )*+,-.+$ /0$ /)1$ 23435$ 0-53$ 67,8$ $9:8;3:$-<48,=35>+:"$#$

Andel av global import!"#$%&'(&)%*+'%&,'"#$%& (%"!#$ (!"!#$ '%"!#$ '!"!#$ &%"!#$ &!"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$ )*+,-.+$ /0$ /)1$ 23435$ 6789:35;$ <,359,-9+$ =>3:-+5$ )435-+5$ 0-53$ $?:@A3:$-B4@,>35;+:"$#$

Eurozonens export!"#$%$&'&()'*+$#,) $!"!# ('"!# (&"!# (%"!# ($"!# (!"!# '"!# &"!# %"!# $"!#!"!# )*# )+,# -./01# +2/34567108# 9:7108# ;<==/1# -45>.# +25850#?1@10# A614/7# *:651# ),B# C08/1# +1<8/#,61D/1# -10181# E:621F# +:<3.#,G6/>1# H1/210# #B<6:4:05#5I@:63#

Börs-/konjunkturanalys BNP-tillväxt

Är det hög- eller lågkonjunktur?!"#$%&#!'()!*+,-#!.+,&/! *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;&

Har Sverige hög- eller lågkonjunktur? *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&#'(')*+&#$',#-' $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;& &234&<=>?>-&

Har USA hög- eller lågkonjunktur? *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&'()$*+$ $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;& &234&<=>&

Europa har lågkonjunktur!"#$%&'()*+,#' *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;& &234&<=>?@A&

Eurozonen har lågkonjunktur!"#$%$&'&()*&+'#( *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;& &234&<=>?&@?-A&

Tyskland ganska svagt!"#$%&'()*)+,-./0-)1.)#2&.$&.-) *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &2345,-6& &278&9:3;3-&

Frankrike ganska svagt!"#$%"&%'()(*+'"&,'(-"(./#"%#"'( *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56,-78& &234&9:8;8-&

Storbritannien hög-/lågkonjunktur? *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%$&"'((&)(*+*!,)$&-)*.$*(/-#"*0"'$1'$)* $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56& &234&789:9-&

Italien definitivt lågkonjunktur *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&'()(*+&,%-&(.,(/012&"(3"#,2#,&( $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56,78& &234&9:;<;-&

Spanien definitivt lågkonjunktur *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&$'('!)&*%+&',*'-./0&1'21#*0#*&' $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56,7-& &234&589:9-&

Kina hög/lågkonjunktur?!"#$%&%'()*"+)%,*%-./0)1%2($+$*)% *(#$%& *"#$%& *'#$%& *$#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%& +,-!.(& +,-!./& +,-!.)& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$*& +,-!$'& +,-!$0& +,-!$"& +,-!$1& +,-!$(& +,-!$/& +,-!$)& +,-!$.& +,-!*$& +,-!**& +,-!*'& +,-!*0&!"#$%& &234&56-,& &234&789:9-&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Tillväxtindikatorn

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &/012304& &/012304&5670&89:3& ($*-& ($*(& ($**& ($*$& ($$+& ($$)& ($$,& ($$"& ($$.& ($$'& ($$-& ($$(& ($$*& ($$$& *+++& *++)& *++,& *++"&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &567&!"#$%& ($*-& ($*(& ($**& ($*$& ($$+& ($$)& ($$,& ($$"& ($$.& ($$'& ($$-& ($$(& ($$*& ($$$& *+++& *++)& *++,& *++"&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ )#$#%& ('$#%& (#$#%& "'$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& #$#%&!'$#%&!"#$#%& &/012304& &5673& (#")& (#"(& (#""& (#"#& (##*& (##-& (##,& (##+& (##'& (##.& (##)& (##(& (##"& (###& "***& "**-& "**,& "**+&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &567183&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &5678039:&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &56378698:&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &56789:7&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Detaljhandel och industriproduktion

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? *$#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/0123456758129:80&!"#$%"&' ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? '$#%&!"#$ ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? "#$%&!"#$%&' '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? '%"!#$!"#$%% '!"!#$ &%"!#$ &!"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$ &(()$ &((*$ &((+$ &((($ '!!!$ '!!&$ '!!'$ '!!,$ '!!-$ '!!%$ '!!)$ '!!*$ '!!+$ '!!($ '!&!$ '!&&$ '!&'$ '!&,$ $./01234156/2$ $756890:;<:=68>?=5$

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar?!"#"$% "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? "'$#%&!"#$%&#' "#$#%& '$#%& #$#%&!'$#%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$#%&,#"-&,#",&,#""&,#"#&,##(&,##+&,##*&,##)&,##'&,##.&,##-&,##,&,##"&,###& "(((& "((+& "((*& "(()&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Bilförsäljning

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&'(#)*"*+,+#-./#0, "#$%&' "%$%&' ($%&' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' %$%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!($%&'!"%$%&' '/012304' '/012304'5670'89:3'!"#$%&' #%"-' #%"#' #%""' #%"%' #%%+' #%%(' #%%,' #%%)' #%%.' #%%*' #%%-' #%%#' #%%"' #%%%' "+++' "++(' "++,' "++)'

Bilförsäljning!"#$ ")$#%& "*$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/012304& &567&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Bilförsäljning!"#$%,#$#%& +#$#%& *#$#%& &/012304& &5673& )#$#%& (#$#%& '#$#%& "#$#%& #$#%&!"#$#%& '#"(& '#"'& '#""& '#"#& '##-& '##.& '##,& '##+& '##*& '##)& '##(& '##'& '##"& '###& "---& "--.& "--,& "--+&

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&' "*$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/012304& &567183&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&'() "*$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/012304& &5678039:&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Bilförsäljning!"#$%"&%'( "#$%&' "%$%&' ($%&' '/012304' '56378698:' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' %$%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!($%&'!"%$%&'!"#$%&' #%"-' #%"#' #%""' #%"%' #%%+' #%%(' #%%,' #%%)' #%%.' #%%*' #%%-' #%%#' #%%"' #%%%' "+++' "++(' "++,' "++)'

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&'( ")$%&' "*$%&' "%$%&' #$%&' ($%&' )$%&' *$%&' %$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!($%&'!#$%&'!"%$%&'!"*$%&'!")$%&'!"($%&'!"#$%&' '/012304' '5430678' *%"-' *%"*' *%""' *%"%' *%%+' *%%#' *%%,' *%%(' *%%.' *%%)' *%%-' *%%*' *%%"' *%%%' "+++' "++#' "++,' "++('

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&$' "#$%&' "($%&' "%$%&' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' ($%&' %$%&'!($%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!"%$%&'!"($%&' '/012304' '5637897'!"#$%&' (%"-' (%"(' (%""' (%"%' (%%+' (%%)' (%%,' (%%*' (%%.' (%%#' (%%-' (%%(' (%%"' (%%%' "+++' "++)' "++,' "++*'

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&#' "#$%&' "($%&' "%$%&' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' ($%&' %$%&'!($%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!"%$%&'!"($%&' '/012304' '56789:7'!"#$%&' (%"-' (%"(' (%""' (%"%' (%%+' (%%)' (%%,' (%%*' (%%.' (%%#' (%%-' (%%(' (%%"' (%%%' "+++' "++)' "++,' "++*'

Bilförsäljning!"#"$% "#$%&' "($%&' )$%&' *$%&' %$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!"($%&' '/012304' '53637'!"#$%&' (%"-' (%"(' (%""' (%"%' (%%+' (%%)' (%%,' (%%#' (%%.' (%%*' (%%-' (%%(' (%%"' (%%%' "+++' "++)' "++,' "++#'

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Lastbilsmarknaden

Lastbilar globalt!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%& )*+,& )*+,& )*++& )*+*& )**#& )**)& )**(& )**(& )**'& )**"& )**-& )**.& )**,& )**,& )**+& )***& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##-& (##.& (##,& (##,& (##+& (##*& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& &/012304$&5678009:;4$&%&

Lastbilar USA!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! *#$#%& "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& )+,-& )+,-& )+,,& )+,+& )++#& )++)& )++(& )++(& )++'& )++"& )++*& )++.& )++-& )++-& )++,& )+++& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##*& (##.& (##-& (##-& (##,& (##+& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(& (#)'& &/01230& &456&

Lastbilar Europa!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! *#$#%& "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& )+,-& )+,-& )+,,& )+,+& )++#& )++)& )++(& )++(& )++'& )++"& )++*& )++.& )++-& )++-& )++,& )+++& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##*& (##.& (##-& (##-& (##,& (##+& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(& (#)'& &/01230& &456173&

Lastbilar Japan!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%& )*+,& )*+,& )*++& )*+*& )**#& )**)& )**(& )**(& )**'& )**"& )**-& )**.& )**,& )**,& )**+& )***& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##-& (##.& (##,& (##,& (##+& (##*& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(& (#)'&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& &/01230& &43536&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Bostadsbyggande

Globalt bostadsbyggande växer!"#$%"&'#()'*+,-*.&'$#*&%/*$011%-/,' *#$% )#$% "#$% &#$% '#$% (#$% #$%!(#$%!'#$%!&#$% %./012/3% %4567896%!"#$% (++,%(++-%(+++%'###%'##(%'##'%'##&%'##"%'##)%'##*%'##,%'##-%'##+%'#(#%'#((%'#('%'#(&%

Bra fart i amerikanskt bostadsbyggande *#$% )#$% "#$% &#$% '#$% (#$% #$%!(#$%!"#$%&'()&*+,-.+)/#()&*+0,)*'1)0233'(1#+!'#$%!&#$% %./0% %/123452%!"#$% (++,%(++-%(+++%'###%'##(%'##'%'##&%'##"%'##)%'##*%'##,%'##-%'##+%'#(#%'#((%'#('%'#(&%

Europeiskt bostadsbyggande faller!"#$%&'()*+$,-+(.&/()*+0$(*12(03441/2&+ +#$#%& *#$#%& "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%&!(#$#%&!'#$#%& &/01234&5*&672148&!"#$#%& ),,-&),,.&),,,&(###&(##)&(##(&(##'&(##"&(##*&(##+&(##-&(##.&(##,&(#)#&(#))&(#)(&(#)'&

Prisutvecklingen i Sverige lysande!!"#$#%&'()#*(+,-(",%.%/0",-1"%'23%4/5% '&"# '""# &%"# &$"# &!"# &+"# &*"# &)"# &("# &'"# &&"# &""# %"# $"#!"# &%!!# &%!%# &%$&# &%$(# &%$*# &%$!# &%$%# &%%&# &%%(# &%%*# &%%!# &%%%# '""&# '""(# '""*# '""!# '""%# '"&&# '"&(# #,-./01.# #2,3#

Prisutvecklingen i Sverige lysande! &""#!"#$#%&'()#*(+,-(",%.%/0",-1"%-%)'++% %!"# %""# $!"# $""#!"# %"$&# %"$%# %"$$# %"$"# %""'# %""+# %""*# %"")# %""!# %""(# %""&# %""%# %""$# %"""# $'''# $''+# $''*# $'')# $''!# $''(# #,-.# #-/01230# #415678# #967:61;#

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Sysselsättning

Sysselsättningen växer!"#$%"&#'(&)*+,)-&).))+")/0,1,2)3""*/45& )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &56789:7&!"#$%& (**+&(**,&(**-&(***&'$$$&'$$(&'$$'&'$$"&'$$)&'$$.&'$$+&'$$,&'$$-&'$$*&'$($&'$((&'$('&'$("&

Sysselsättningen växer!"#$%&'()&*+,-*).#()&*)/))#0)12(%(3)400.156* )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& USA &56789:7&!"#$%& (**+&(**,&(**-&(***&'$$$&'$$(&'$$'&'$$"&'$$)&'$$.&'$$+&'$$,&'$$-&'$$*&'$($&'$((&'$('&'$("&

Sysselsättningen faller i Europa!"#$%&'()*$+,*(-&.()*(/((&0(12.'.3(400-156* )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& Europa &56789:7&!"#$%& (**+&(**,&(**-&(***&'$$$&'$$(&'$$'&'$$"&'$$)&'$$.&'$$+&'$$,&'$$-&'$$*&'$($&'$((&'$('&'$("&

Inköpschefsindex

Inköpschefernas index (globalt + Sverige) ("#"$ '%#"$ '"#"$ %%#"$ %"#"$ &%#"$ &"#"$!%#"$!"#$%&'()*)+",-./01,/2-!"#"$,")!$,"),$,"))$,")"$,""*$,""+$,""($,""'$,""%$,""&$,""!$,"",$,"")$,"""$ )***$ )**+$ )**($ )**'$ $-./01.$ $2345674$

Inköpschefernas index (USA + Sverige) '"# &$# &"# $$# $"# %$# %"#!$#!"#$%&'()*)+",-.-/01-!"# +"(!# +"(+# +"((# +"("# +"")# +""*# +""'# +""&# +""$# +""%# +""!# +""+# +""(# +"""# ()))# ())*# ())'# ())&# #,-.# #-/01230#

Inköpschefernas index (Europa + Sverige) ("#"$ '%#"$ '"#"$ %%#"$ %"#"$ &%#"$ &"#"$!%#"$!"#$%&'()*)+",-./+0%,-!"#"$,")!$,"),$,"))$,")"$,""*$,""+$,""($,""'$,""%$,""&$,""!$,"",$,"")$,"""$ )***$ )**+$ )**($ )**'$ $-./012$3%$450/26$ $789/:;9$

Inköpschefernas index (USA) 65 60 55 USA ISM Purchasing managers index, sa 80 60 40 20 Index 50 45 40 0-20 -40-60 35 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-80 Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index, 12 Month As Reported Earnings per Share (top down), E Business Surveys, ISM Manufacturing, PMI total, SA, Index Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inköpschefernas index (USA) 70 United States 75 Percent ISM 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 50 25 0-25 -50 Percent Ind prod 30 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10-75 Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index, 12 Month As Reported Earnings per Share (top down), Business Surveys, ISM Manufacturing, PMI total, SA, Index Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Råvaror Stockholm 2008-03-10

Global stålproduktion 140 World Crude Steel Production 130 Tonnes (millions) 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 ew:wld24200/1000000 ew:wld24200/1000000_1 [ma 12] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Metallpriser 550 Metallpriser (index) 500 450 400 Index 350 300 250 200 150 100 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 ma 200 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Metallpriser 800 World, GSCI, Copper Index, Spot Return, Close, USD 700 600 Index 500 400 300 200 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Metallpriser 5000 World, Base Metals, Zinc, Spot, LME, Bid, USD 4500 4000 3500 USD 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Oljepriset Brent och WTI 150 World, Energy, Oil, USD 125 USD/Barrel 100 75 50 25 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Crude Oil - North Sea (Brent), Dated, Close Light Crude Spot (WTI), Nymex Source: Reuters EcoWin

USA fortsatt lågt gaspris 600 Oljepris (WTI) jämfört med gaspris 500 400 300 200 100 0 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Natural Gas, Henry Hub, Spot, End of Period [rebase 1985 = 100.0] Oil, Light Crude Spot (WTI), Nymex [rebase 1985 = 100.0] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Kolpriset 150 World, HWWI, Coal Index 125 100 Index 75 50 25 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 USD EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Valutor Stockholm 2008-03-10

Valutautveckling SEK USD, EUR, GBP 140 130 SEK mot USD, GBP, EUR (bas 100 = 1993) Stark krona US-dollar 120 110 100 90 Euro 80 Brittiskt pund Svag krona 70 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 USD/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0] GBP/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0] EUR/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Valuta svenska kronan svag långsiktigt SEK: Inflation adjusted 1971-150 SEK förstärks 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 SEK försvagas 30 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 USD/SEK [rebase 1971 = 100.0] EUR/SEK [rebase 1971 = 100.0] GBP/SEK [rebase 1971 = 100.0] YEN/SEK [rebase 1971 = 100.0] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Börsbolagens vinster Stockholm 2008-03-10

Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2013 (Q3) &#!"!"#$%&'$()*+,-*./!0!12/*#!3,-.!*&45!678-!"9:;! &!!" %#!" %!!" $#!" $!!" #!"!" $&!&" $%!&" $$!&" $!!&"!'!&"!*!&"!)!&"!(!&"!#!&"!+!&"!&!&"!%!&"!$!&"!!!&" ''!&" '*!&" ')!&" '(!&" '#!&" ",-./0"1234"/567"839::6.;4"+"5<6306:=>"?;3"@AB"

Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2013 (Q3) "#$%!"#$%&&'()*+,-.$*/0*1+23.+0'/.*/&+455674589+:9+ &#$% '#$% #$% #(#"% #)#"% #*#"% #+#"% #,#"% '##"% ''#"% '&#"% '"#"%!'#$%!&#$%!"#$% %-./01223456%78906:;6<=%$%

Värdering prognostiserad vinsttillväxt 40% Stockholm - Estimated EPS growth, % (YoY) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Estimated EPS growth (median) -20%

USA vinster och värdering 3200 The U.S - S&P EPS x p/e, share prices 1600 800 400 200 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 S&P est EPS 12 months forward (x12) United States, Standard & Poors, 500 S&P est EPS 12 months forward (x15) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs- /konjunkturutsikter på 6-12 månader Värdering

Värdering!"#$%&#'()*)+,-.)/012340567016890) '#"#$ &!"#$ &#"#$ %!"#$ %#"#$!"#$ $-./012.$ $345$ %()*$ %()+$ %())$ %()($ %((#$ %((%$ %((&$ %(('$ %((,$ %((!$ %((*$ %((+$ %(()$ %((($ &###$ &##%$ &##&$ &##'$ &##,$ &##!$ &##*$ &##+$ &##)$ &##($ &#%#$ &#%%$ &#%&$ &#%'$

Värdering Stockholmsbörsen - Relativ p/e (1,0 = balans) 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0,90 0,80 0,70 Relativ p/e (median) 0,60

Värdering 25 The U.S - S&P p/e-ratio (estimated) 20 15 10 5 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 1/(inflation+3.5%) S&P p/e-ratio Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 30 UK P/E and inverted consumer prices 25 20 Ratio 15 10 5 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 1/(((gbr11802/lag(gbr11802, 12))-1)+0.05) United Kingdom, FTSE, 100, Index, P/E Ratio, End of Period Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 25 Germany P/E and inverted consumer prices 20 Ratio 15 10 5 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1/(((deu11801/lag(deu11801, 12))-1)+0.055) Germany, Deutsche Boerse, DAX 30, Index, P/E Ratio, EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 20,0 France P/E and inverted consumer prices 17,5 15,0 Ratio 12,5 10,0 7,5 5,0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1/(((fra11990/lag(fra11990, 12))-1)+0.06) France, Paris SE, CAC 40 Index, P/E Ratio Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 25,0 Spain P/E and inverted consumer prices 22,5 20,0 17,5 Index 15,0 12,5 10,0 7,5 5,0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1/(((esp11800/lag(esp11800, 12))-1)+0.05) Spain, IBEX, 35 Index, P/E Ratio, EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Räntor och inflation

Ränteutveckling,"!#$ +"!#$ *"!#$ )"!#$!"#$%&$'%()*+#,-,*./0*$-.(1-2'%3+,%- ("!#$ '"!#$ &"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!&$ $./012/$34562$ $7893:;9$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$!"#$%&$'%()*+#,-./0-1(2-/'%3+,%- %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $./0$ $/123452$

Ränteutveckling,"!#$ +"!#$ *"!#$ )"!#$ ("!#$ '"!#$ &"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$!"#$%&$'%()*+#,-.&/0#-0(1-2'%/+,%- %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $./0123$ $4560786$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$!"#$%&$'%()*+#,-./0)*1#2-3(4-5$1*+%#- %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $./012345$ $6732894$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$!"#$%&$'%()*+#,-./-0(1-2'%3+,%- %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $./$ $0123452$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$!"#$%&$'%()*+#,-./0/#-1(2-3'%4+,%- %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $./0/1$ $2345674$

Inflation!"#$%&"'()"*+,-*).-/'01&2$13'&45'67.-*0.' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/012304& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& &56789:7& "$$.& "$$,& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()"*+,-*).-/'01&2$13'&45'678' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/012304& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& &567& "$$,& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()"*+,-*).-/'01&2$13'&45'67-&"' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/012304& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& &567183& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()"*+,-*).-/'01)23$"4'&56'!7$3*."' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& "$$)& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& "$'$& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(& &/0123456& &78439:5&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()"*+,-*).-/'01&2$13'&45'67' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& "$$)& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& "$'$& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(& &/012304& &56&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()"*+,-*).-/'01&2$13'&45'6$,$"' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/012304& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& &53637& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen 4,5 Euro Zone, Consumer Prices, All Items, Index, 2005=100 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 Percent 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Eurostat, CP00, Total [ar 12 months] ECB, 00XE, All-items excluding energy, SA [ar 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen 6,0 Eurostat, Euro Zone, Consumer Prices, Total, Index, 2005=100 4,0 Percent 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0 jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr jul 11 12 13 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics, CP02 [ar ma 12 months] Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages, CP01 [ar ma 12 months] Clothing and Footwear, CP03 [ar ma 12 months] Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, CP04 [ar ma 12 months] Transport, CP07 [ar ma 12 months] Communication, CP08 [ar ma 12 months] Recreation and Culture, CP09 [ar ma 12 months] Restaurants and Hotels, CP11 [ar ma 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen Eurostat, Euro Zone, Consumer Prices, Transport, Index, 2005=100 10,0 7,5 5,0 Percent 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0-7,5 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CP07, Total [ar ma 12 months] CP0711, Motor cars [ar ma 12 months] CP0723, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment [ar ma 12 months] CP073, Transport services [ar ma 12 months] CP072, Operation of personal transport equipment [ar ma 12 months] CP073, Transport services [ar ma 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen 20 Eurostat, Euro Zone, Consumer Prices, Index, 2005=100 15 10 5 Percent 0-5 -10-15 -20 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Special Indexes, SERV, Services [ar ma 12 months] Special Indexes, IGOODSXEND, Non-energy industrial goods, non-durables only [ar ma 12 months] Special Indexes, FUELS, Liquid fuels and fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment [ar ma 12 months] Special Indexes, ELGAS, Electricity, gas, solid fuels and heat energy [ar ma 12 months] All Items, CP00, Total [ar ma 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Teknisk analys Stockholm 2008-03-10

Tekniskt 7 ma 200 0,9884172852 ma 20 0,7838006909 6 OMX-index - Dagshögsta/dagslägsta, i % 5 4 3 2 1 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 ma 20 ma 200 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 6,0 USA S&P 500 Index, high % low 5,0 4,0 Index 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 ma 200 ma 20 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,3 Sweden AFGX 1,3 (-) Momentum (+) 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 0,7 Mycket lång trend Lång trend Kort trend Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 90 75 60 AFGX, Bond 10 y (index, y o y) 30 25 20 AFGX Percent/year 45 30 15 0-15 15 10 5 0-5 Bonds Percent/year -30-10 -45 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-15 Handelsbanken Markets, All Government Bond, Index >10 years [ar 261 obs] SIX, Index (SIXRX), Close [ar 261 obs] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,4 AFGX relative Bonds 10 y 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt Index 400 350 300 250 ASSA ABLOY, CASTELLUM, GETINGE, HENNES & MAURITZ, HUFVUDSTADEN, INTRUM JUSTITIA, MEDA, SVENSKA CELLULOSA, SWEDISH MATCH, TELIA SONERA Stabila bolag 200 150 100 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 400 350 300 Volvo, Sandvik, SSAB, Boliden, JM, MTG, NCC, Scania, Peab, Atlas Copco Konjunkturkänsliga bolag Index 250 200 150 100 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,10 Carnegie rel AFGX Low Momentum High 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (mean(ew:swe15970, 1)/mean(swe15970, 50))/(mean(ew:swe15510, 1)/mean(swe15510, 50)) (mean(ew:swe15970, 200)/mean(swe15970, 800))/(mean(ew:swe15500, 200)/mean(swe15500, 800)) (mean(ew:swe15970, 3)/mean(swe15970, 200))/(mean(ew:swe15510,3)/mean(swe15510, 200)) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,15 1,10 AFGX rel Etop Euro (i lokal val), EUR rel SEK Strong AFGX, Strong EUR Low Momentum High 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (mean(ew:swe19001/emu19001, 3)/mean(swe19001/emu19001, 200)) (mean(ew:swe15500, 3)/mean(swe15500, 200))/(mean(ew:emu15300, 3)/mean(emu15300, 200)) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,20 1,15 AFGX rel S&P 500 (i lokal valuta), USD rel SEK Strong AFGX Strong SEK Low Momentum High 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (mean(ew:swe19001, 3)/mean(swe19001, 200)) (mean(ew:swe15500, 3)/mean(swe15500, 200))/(mean(ew:usa15510, 3)/mean(usa15510, 200)) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt Low Momentum High 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 Eurotop Euroland rel S&P 500, USD rel Euro Strong ETOP Strong USD 0,85 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 (mean(ew:xee19001, 3)/mean(xee19001, 200)) (mean(ew:emu15300, 3)/mean(emu15300, 200))/(mean(ew:usa15510, 3)/mean(usa15510, 200)) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,30 Emerging markets (FTSE) rel S&P 500 1,25 Low Momentum High 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 0,75 0,70 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 200 dagar 800 dagar Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs- /konjunkturutsikter på 6-12 månader Aktiefonder och risk Stockholm 2008-03-10

Aktiesparande ökat samband mellan kursutveckling och fondinsättningar 100 Stockholm equity index and fund flows 100 75 75 50 50 billions 25 25 Percent 0 0-25 -25-50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-50 Stockholm (AFGX), Price Return [ar 12 months] Flow into equity funds (annualized) [ma 12] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Aktiesparande ökat samband mellan kursutveckling och fondinsättningar 40 Fondinsättningar/-uttag (SEK Mdr) 20 30 20 15 10 SEK (billions) 10 0-10 5 0-5 Percent -20-30 -10-15 -40 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-20 Swedish Mutual Fund Association, New Savings, Equity Funds, Balance Affärsvärlden, General Index (AFGX), Price Return, Close [c.o.p 1 month] Source: Reuters EcoWin