Konjunktur- och börsanalys

Konjunktur- och börsanalys 2014-02 Peter Malmqvist www.eqr.se

Aktuell indikator 1 300 Stockholmsbörsen index (inkl utdelningar) 275 250 225 Index 200 175 150 125 100 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 rebase 2008-11-21 = 100.0 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Aktuell indikator 2 Centralbankerna tror på lågkonjunktur 6 Policy Rates 5 4 Percent 3 2 1 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Euro Zone, ECB Main refinancing, Fixed Rate, EUR Sweden, Repo Rate (Effective Dates), SEK United States, Fed Funds Target Rate, USD United Kingdom, Bank Rate Source: Reuters EcoWin

Aktuell indikator 3 8 Tysk och italiensk obligationsränta 7 6 5 Percent 4 3 2 1 0-1 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Germany Italy Source: Reuters EcoWin

Aktuell indikator 4 I2JK79J@3/J.3%!%LM3E893/84N%$%(##O!(#)'% &#$% '#$% (#$% )#$% #$%!)#$%!(#$% *+,-./0% 1234.% *5.3/4.% 678797% :/8;789% *<9=23.7%% 1<7%>..;789% :378+.%?7@78% A*B% C78D73=% 1.9.3;E89.387% AF% G3;789% *@7/8%% H3.=;789%!'#$%!&#$%!"#$% P3/JLM3E893/84N%$%(##O!(#)'%

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Vilka länder betyder mest för konjunturen?

Andel av global import!"#$%&'(&)%*+'%&,'"#$%& (%"!#$ (!"!#$ '%"!#$ '!"!#$ &%"!#$ &!"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$ )*+,-.+$ /0$ /)1$ 23435$ 6789:35;$ <,359,-9+$ =>3:-+5$ )435-+5$ 0-53$ $?:@A3:$-B4@,>35;+:"$#$

Eurozonens export!"#$%$&'&()'*+$#,) $!"!# ('"!# (&"!# (%"!# ($"!# (!"!# '"!# &"!# %"!# $"!#!"!# )*# )+,# -./01# +2/34567108# 9:7108# ;<==/1# -45>.# +25850#?1@10# A614/7# *:651# ),B# C08/1# +1<8/#,61D/1# -10181# E:621F# +:<3.#,G6/>1# H1/210# #B<6:4:05#5I@:63#

Börs-/konjunkturanalys BNP-tillväxt

Är det hög- eller lågkonjunktur? *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&#!'()!*+,-#!.+,&/! $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;&

Har USA hög- eller lågkonjunktur? *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&'($)**+,-./0$ $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;& &234&<=>&

Eurozonen har lågkonjunktur!"#$%$&'&()*&+'#( *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;& &234&<=>?&@?-A&

Har Sverige hög- eller lågkonjunktur? *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&#'(')*+&#$',#-' $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56-78&9:6-,;& &234&<=>?>-&

Storbritannien hög-/lågkonjunktur? *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%$&"'((&)(*"'$*+'$"* $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56& &234&789:9-&

Tyskland ganska svagt!"#$%&'()*$&+) *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &2345,-6& &278&9:3;3-&

Frankrike ganska svagt!"#$%"&%'()($*++,++-./0( *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56,-78& &234&9:8;8-&

Italien definitivt lågkonjunktur *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&'()(*+#,"-(.&'(+/'0&1( $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56,78& &234&9:;<;-&

Spanien definitivt lågkonjunktur *#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%&!"#$%&$'(')*#+,-'.&$'*/$0&1' $#$%&!)#$%& +,-!./& +,-!.0& +,-!.1& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$)& +,-!$(& +,-!$'& +,-!$"& +,-!$*& +,-!$/& +,-!$0& +,-!$1& +,-!$.& +,-!)$& +,-!))& +,-!)(& +,-!)'&!(#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& &234&56,7-& &234&589:9-&

Kina hög/lågkonjunktur?!"#$%&%'()*"+)%,*%-./0)1%2($+$*)% *(#$%& *"#$%& *'#$%& *$#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%& +,-!.(& +,-!./& +,-!.)& +,-!..& +,-!$$& +,-!$*& +,-!$'& +,-!$0& +,-!$"& +,-!$1& +,-!$(& +,-!$/& +,-!$)& +,-!$.& +,-!*$& +,-!**& +,-!*'& +,-!*0&!"#$%& &234&56-,& &234&789:9-&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Tillväxtindikatorn

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &/012304&5670&89:3&!"#$%& ($*-& ($*(& ($**& ($*$& ($$+& ($$)& ($$,& ($$"& ($$.& ($$'& ($$-& ($$(& ($$*& ($$$& *+++& *++)& *++,& *++"&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &567&!"#$%& ($*-& ($*(& ($**& ($*$& ($$+& ($$)& ($$,& ($$"& ($$.& ($$'& ($$-& ($$(& ($$*& ($$$& *+++& *++)& *++,& *++"&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &567183&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &5678039:&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &56378698:&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &56789:7&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Tillväxtindikatorn!"##$%&'()"*+,-.(/ )#$#%& ('$#%& (#$#%& "'$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& #$#%&!'$#%&!"#$#%& &/012304& &5673& (#")& (#"(& (#""& (#"#& (##*& (##-& (##,& (##+& (##'& (##.& (##)& (##(& (##"& (###& "***& "**-& "**,& "**+&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Detaljhandel och industriproduktion

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? *$#$%&!"#$%"&' "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!"#$!'$#%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? "#$%&!"#$%&' '#$%& (#$%& )#$%& $#$%&!)#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$%& )$*-& )$*)& )$**& )$*$& )$$+& )$$"& )$$,& )$$'& )$$.& )$$(& )$$-& )$$)& )$$*& )$$$& *+++& *++"& *++,& *++'&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? '%"!#$!"#$%% '!"!#$ &%"!#$ &!"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$ &(()$ &((*$ &((+$ &((($ '!!!$ '!!&$ '!!'$ '!!,$ '!!-$ '!!%$ '!!)$ '!!*$ '!!+$ '!!($ '!&!$ '!&&$ '!&'$ '!&,$ $./01234156/2$ $756890:;<:=68>?=5$

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar?!"#"$% "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Industrin eller konsumenten vem drar? "'$#%&!"#$%&#' "#$#%& '$#%& #$#%&!'$#%& &/0123456758129:80& ;<4=>?@=01<>&!"#$#%&,#"-&,#",&,#""&,#"#&,##(&,##+&,##*&,##)&,##'&,##.&,##-&,##,&,##"&,###& "(((& "((+& "((*& "(()&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Bilförsäljning

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&'(#)*"*+,+#-./#0, "#$%&' "%$%&' ($%&' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' %$%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!($%&'!"%$%&' '/012304' '/012304'5670'89:3'!"#$%&' #%"-' #%"#' #%""' #%"%' #%%+' #%%(' #%%,' #%%)' #%%.' #%%*' #%%-' #%%#' #%%"' #%%%' "+++' "++(' "++,' "++)'

Bilförsäljning!"#$ ")$#%& "*$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/012304& &567&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Bilförsäljning!"#$% *#$#%& )'$#%& )#$#%& ('$#%& (#$#%& "'$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& #$#%&!'$#%& &/012304& &5673&!"#$#%& (#")& (#"(& (#""& (#"#& (##+& (##.& (##-& (##,& (##'& (##*& (##)& (##(& (##"& (###& "+++& "++.& "++-& "++,&

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&' "*$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/012304& &567183&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&'() "*$#%& "#$#%& '$#%& ($#%& )$#%& *$#%& #$#%&!*$#%&!)$#%&!($#%&!'$#%& &/012304& &5678039:&!"#$#%& *#"-& *#"*& *#""& *#"#& *##+& *##'& *##,& *##(& *##.& *##)& *##-& *##*& *##"& *###& "+++& "++'& "++,& "++(&

Bilförsäljning!"#$%"&%'( "#$%&' "%$%&' ($%&' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' %$%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!($%&'!"%$%&' '/012304' '56378698:'!"#$%&' #%"-' #%"#' #%""' #%"%' #%%+' #%%(' #%%,' #%%)' #%%.' #%%*' #%%-' #%%#' #%%"' #%%%' "+++' "++(' "++,' "++)'

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&'( "($%&' ")$%&' *$%&' +$%&',$%&' %$%&'!,$%&'!+$%&'!*$%&'!")$%&'!"($%&' '/012304' '5430678'!"#$%&' )%",' )%")' )%""' )%"%' )%%*' )%%#' )%%-' )%%+' )%%(' )%%.' )%%,' )%%)' )%%"' )%%%' "***' "**#' "**-' "**+'

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&$' "#$%&' "($%&' "%$%&' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' ($%&' %$%&'!($%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!"%$%&'!"($%&' '/012304' '5637897'!"#$%&' (%"-' (%"(' (%""' (%"%' (%%+' (%%)' (%%,' (%%*' (%%.' (%%#' (%%-' (%%(' (%%"' (%%%' "+++' "++)' "++,' "++*'

Bilförsäljning!"#$%&#' "#$%&' "($%&' "%$%&' )$%&' *$%&' #$%&' ($%&' %$%&'!($%&'!#$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!"%$%&' '/012304' '56789:7'!"($%&'!"#$%&' (%"-' (%"(' (%""' (%"%' (%%+' (%%)' (%%,' (%%*' (%%.' (%%#' (%%-' (%%(' (%%"' (%%%' "+++' "++)' "++,' "++*'

Bilförsäljning!"#"$% "#$%&' "($%&' )$%&' *$%&' %$%&'!*$%&'!)$%&'!"($%&' '/012304' '53637'!"#$%&' (%"-' (%"(' (%""' (%"%' (%%+' (%%)' (%%,' (%%#' (%%.' (%%*' (%%-' (%%(' (%%"' (%%%' "+++' "++)' "++,' "++#'

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Lastbilsmarknaden

Lastbilar globalt!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%& )*+,& )*+,& )*++& )*+*& )**#& )**)& )**(& )**(& )**'& )**"& )**-& )**.& )**,& )**,& )**+& )***& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##-& (##.& (##,& (##,& (##+& (##*& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& &/012304$&5678009:;4$&%&

Lastbilar USA!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! *#$#%& "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& )+,-& )+,-& )+,,& )+,+& )++#& )++)& )++(& )++(& )++'& )++"& )++*& )++.& )++-& )++-& )++,& )+++& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##*& (##.& (##-& (##-& (##,& (##+& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(& (#)'& &/01230& &456&

Lastbilar Europa!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! *#$#%& "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& )+,-& )+,-& )+,,& )+,+& )++#& )++)& )++(& )++(& )++'& )++"& )++*& )++.& )++-& )++-& )++,& )+++& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##*& (##.& (##-& (##-& (##,& (##+& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(& (#)'& &/01230& &456173&

Lastbilar Japan!"#$%&'($)*+$,(-.'./!01+$2((3,4%5!67! "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!)#$#%& )*+,& )*+,& )*++& )*+*& )**#& )**)& )**(& )**(& )**'& )**"& )**-& )**.& )**,& )**,& )**+& )***& (###& (##)& (##(& (##(& (##'& (##"& (##-& (##.& (##,& (##,& (##+& (##*& (#)#& (#))& (#)(& (#)(& (#)'&!(#$#%&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& &/01230& &43536&

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Bostadsmarknaden - Byggande - Prisutveckling

Globalt bostadsbyggande växer!"#$%"&'#()'*+,-*.&'$#*&%/*$011%-/,' *#$% )#$% "#$% &#$% '#$% (#$% #$%!(#$%!'#$%!&#$% %./012/3% %4567896%!"#$% (++,%(++-%(+++%'###%'##(%'##'%'##&%'##"%'##)%'##*%'##,%'##-%'##+%'#(#%'#((%'#('%'#(&%

Bra fart i amerikanskt bostadsbyggande *#$% )#$% "#$% &#$% '#$% (#$% #$%!(#$%!"#$%&'()&*+,-.+)/#()&*+0,)*'1)0233'(1#+!'#$%!&#$% %./0% %/123452%!"#$% (++,%(++-%(+++%'###%'##(%'##'%'##&%'##"%'##)%'##*%'##,%'##-%'##+%'#(#%'#((%'#('%'#(&%

Europeiskt bostadsbyggande stiger +#$#%& *#$#%& "#$#%& '#$#%& (#$#%& )#$#%& #$#%&!"#$%&'()*+$,-+(.&/()*+0$(*12(03441/2&+!)#$#%&!(#$#%& &/01234&5*&672148& &9:;1<=;&!'#$#%&!"#$#%& ),,-&),,.&),,,&(###&(##)&(##(&(##'&(##"&(##*&(##+&(##-&(##.&(##,&(#)#&(#))&(#)(&(#)'&

Prisutvecklingen i Sverige - lysande!!"#$#%&'()#*(+,-(",%.%/0",-1"%'23%4/5% '&"# '""# &%"# &$"# &!"# &+"# &*"# &)"# &("# &'"# &&"# &""# %"# $"#!"# &%!!# &%!%# &%$&# &%$(# &%$*# &%$!# &%$%# &%%&# &%%(# &%%*# &%%!# &%%%# '""&# '""(# '""*# '""!# '""%# '"&&# '"&(# #,-./01.# #2,3#

Prisutvecklingen i Sverige - lysande! &""#!"#$#%&'()#*(+,-(",%.%/0",-1"%-%)'++% %!"# %""# $!"# $""#!"# %"$&# %"$%# %"$$# %"$"# %""'# %""+# %""*# %"")# %""!# %""(# %""&# %""%# %""$# %"""# $'''# $''+# $''*# $'')# $''!# $''(# #,-.# #-/01230# #415678# #967:61;#

Prisutvecklingen i Sverige - lysande! L16?$F/4MNO/P7@/470Q$R$!&&*,%)!+$ L16?$F/4MNO/P7@/470Q$R$!&&*,%)!+$!"#$!%&$ &'$ ()$ **$ '($ #&$ ##$ #%$ +'$ %"$ %!$ %!$!%$!$ -./01$ 231/401$ 5/678/481$ 967:6/8$ ;<$ -=6$>11?67@$ 547?67@$ 2ABC14D$ E/?67@$ 2F647$$ G676@6$ ;2H$ I.??67@$ J/18?67@$ 2=@8./16$ K6F67$,%($

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Sysselsättning

Sysselsättningen växer!"#$%&'()&*+,-*./+0'/*)1))#/)23(%(.)4//5267* )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &567&!"#$%& (**+&(**,&(**-&(***&'$$$&'$$(&'$$'&'$$"&'$$)&'$$.&'$$+&'$$,&'$$-&'$$*&'$($&'$((&'$('&'$("&

Sysselsättningen faller i Europa "#$%&!"#$%&'()*$+,*-.$/0.*(1((&.(234'4-(5..6278* '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &567183&!"#$%& ())*&())+&()),&()))&'$$$&'$$(&'$$'&'$$"&'$$-&'$$.&'$$*&'$$+&'$$,&'$$)&'$($&'$((&'$('&'$("& Europa

Sysselsättningen växer!"#$%"&#'(&)*+,)-&).))+")/0,1,2)3""*/45& )#$%& "#$%& '#$%& (#$%& $#$%&!(#$%&!'#$%& &/012304& &56789:7&!"#$%& (**+&(**,&(**-&(***&'$$$&'$$(&'$$'&'$$"&'$$)&'$$.&'$$+&'$$,&'$$-&'$$*&'$($&'$((&'$('&'$("&

Inköpschefsindex

Inköpschefernas index (globalt + Sverige) -./012345657.8$9:;<8:=$ ("#"$ '%#"$ '"#"$ %%#"$ %"#"$ &%#"$ &"#"$!%#"$!"#"$,")&$,")!$,"),$,"))$,")"$,""*$,""+$,""($,""'$,""%$,""&$,""!$,"",$,"")$,"""$ )***$ )**+$ )**($ )**'$ $>:;<8:$ $?@57A95$

Inköpschefernas index (USA + Sverige),-./01234546-7#8#9:;# '"# &$# &"# $$# $"# %$# %"#!$#!"# +"(%# +"(!# +"(+# +"((# +"("# +"")# +""*# +""'# +""&# +""$# +""%# +""!# +""+# +""(# +"""# ()))# ())*# ())'# ())&# #9:;# #:<468=4#

Inköpschefernas index (Europa + Sverige) -./012345657.8$9:7;18$ ("#"$ '%#"$ '"#"$ %%#"$ %"#"$ &%#"$ &"#"$!%#"$!"#"$,")&$,")!$,"),$,"))$,")"$,""*$,""+$,""($,""'$,""%$,""&$,""!$,"",$,"")$,"""$ )***$ )**+$ )**($ )**'$ $9:7;18$<%$2=;78>$ $?@57AB5$

Inköpschefernas index (USA) 65 60 55 USA ISM Purchasing managers index, sa 80 60 40 20 Index 50 45 40 0-20 -40-60 35 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-80 Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index, 12 Month As Reported Earnings pe Business Surveys, ISM Manufacturing, PMI total, SA, Index Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inköpschefernas index (USA) 70 United States 75 Percent ISM 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 50 25 0-25 -50 Percent Ind prod 30 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10-75 Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index, 12 Month As Reported Earning Business Surveys, ISM Manufacturing, PMI total, SA, Index Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Råvaror Stockholm 2008-03-10

Global stålproduktion 40 Stålproduktion (årstaktsförändring) 30 20 Percent 10 0-10 -20-30 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 ew:wld24200/1000000 [ar 12 months] ew:wld24200/1000000_1 [ar 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Metallpriser Metallpriser 550 500 450 400 World, GSCI, Industrial Metals Index, Spot Return, Close, USD Index 350 300 250 200 150 100 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin

USA fortsatt lågt gaspris 600 Oljepris (WTI) jämfört med gaspris 500 400 300 200 100 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Natural Gas, Henry Hub, Spot, End of Period [rebase 1985 = 100.0] Oil, Light Crude Spot (WTI), Nymex [rebase 1985 = 100.0] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Kolpriset Energipriser kolpriset 200 World, HWWI, Coal Index, USD 175 150 125 Index 100 75 50 25 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Valutor Stockholm 2008-03-10

Valutautveckling SEK USD, EUR, GBP 140 130 120 SEK mot USD, GBP, EUR (bas 100 = 1993) US-dollar Stark krona 110 100 90 Euro 80 70 Brittiskt pund Svag krona 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 USD/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0] GBP/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0] EUR/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Valuta Emerging markets v.s. USD 105 Emerging markets v.s USD 100 95 Index 90 85 80 75 jan apr jul okt jan 11 apr jul okt jan 12 apr jul okt jan 13 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Valuta Emerging markets v.s. USD 115 Emerging markets/usd 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 jan apr jul okt jan 11 Mexico [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] China [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] India [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] Brazil [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] apr jul okt jan 12 Turkey [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] Russia [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] South Africa [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] apr jul okt jan 13 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Inflation

Inflation!"#$%&"'()&*$)+'&,-'./012(0' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/012304& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& &56789:7& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()*'&+,')-./01.' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/01& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& &0234563& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()*&+&"("'&,-'./(*01(' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/01232454& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& &6751895& "$$,& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()*+,$"-'&./'0123452' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/0123456& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& &789:;<9& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()$"*)+*,'&-.'/0,)+1,' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/01230435& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& &6750485& "$$,& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'!($)*+"'&,-'./+0*1+' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/012345& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& &6748394& "$$.& "$$,& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()$"*+"'&,-'(.+/*0+' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& "$$(& &/012342& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& "$$.& "$$,& &/546374& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'()'&*+',-./01.' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& &/0& "$$(& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& &1234563& "$$.& "$$,& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflation!"#$%&"'($)$"'&*+',-./01.' +#$%& *#$%& )#$%& (#$%& "#$%& '#$%& $#$%&!'#$%&!"#$%& ',,*& ',,+& ',,-& ',,.& ',,,& "$$$& "$$'& "$$"& &/0& "$$(& "$$)& "$$*& "$$+& "$$-& &1234563& "$$.& "$$,& "$'$& "$''& "$'"& "$'(&

Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen 4,5 Euro Zone, Consumer Prices, All Items, Index, 2005=100 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 Percent 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Eurostat, CP00, Total [ar 12 months] ECB, 00XE, All-items excluding energy, SA [ar 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen 20 Eurostat, Euro Zone, Consumer Prices, Index, 2005=100 15 10 5 Percent 0-5 -10-15 -20 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Special Indexes, SERV, Services [ar ma 12 months] Special Indexes, IGOODSXEND, Non-energy industrial goods, non-durables only [ar ma 12 months] Special Indexes, FUELS, Liquid fuels and fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment [ar ma 12 Special Indexes, ELGAS, Electricity, gas, solid fuels and heat energy [ar ma 12 months] All Items, CP00, Total [ar ma 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inflationsanalys Emerging markets 8,5 Emerging markets - inflation Percent 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 Brasilien Indien Kina Turkiet Mexiko Sydafrika Ryssland 5,5 5,0 4,5 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 ar 12 months Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inflationsanalys Emerging markets Index 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Emerging markets - consumer price index 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Turkey [rebase 2005 = 100.0] South Africa [rebase 2005 = 100.0] Russia [rebase 2005 = 100.0] Mexico [rebase 2005 = 100.0] China [rebase 2005 = 100.0] Brazil [rebase 2005 = 100.0] India [rebase 2005 = 100.0] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Inflationsanalys Emerging markets 12,5 Emerging markets - inflation 10,0 7,5 Percent 5,0 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0 jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt 11 12 13 Turkey [ar 12 months] South Africa [ar 12 months] Russia [ar 12 months] Mexico [ar 12 months] China [ar 12 months] Brazil [ar 12 months] India [ar 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Räntor

Ränteutveckling,"!#$ +"!#$ *"!#$ )"!#$ ("!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$97>?@71$>5A$B42C892$ '"!#$ &"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!&$ $D7>?@7$C/01@$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ $B42C892$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$>?@$A5B$?42C892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $>?@$ $?42C892$

Ränteutveckling,"!#$ +"!#$ *"!#$ )"!#$ ("!#$ '"!#$ &"!#$ %"!#$!"!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$23>?@?020$?5A$B42>892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $C3>?DE$ $B42>892$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$./0123142567809$:;<67=0>$?5@$A42B892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $:;<67=0>$ $A42B892$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$>1?7820$@5A$B42C892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $B42C892$ $>1?7820$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$>?@06?862$A5B$C42?892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $C42?892$ $>?@06?862$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$>?@0820$A5B$>42C892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $>42C892$ $>?@0820$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$>?$@5A$B42C892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $>?$ $B42C892$

Ränteutveckling,"!!#$ +"!!#$ *"!!#$ )"!!#$ ("!!#$ '"!!#$ &"!!#$ %"!!#$!"!!#$./0123142567809$:;08<=$>?@?0$A5B$C42D892$ %--)$ %--)$ %--*$ %--+$ %--,$ %--,$ %---$ &!!!$ &!!%$ &!!%$ &!!&$ &!!'$ &!!($ &!!($ &!!)$ &!!*$ &!!+$ &!!+$ &!!,$ &!!-$ &!%!$ &!%!$ &!%%$ &!%&$ &!%'$ $>?@?0$ $C42D892$

Börs-/konjunkturanalys Börsbolagens vinster Stockholm 2008-03-10

Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2013 (Q3) &#!"!"#$%&'$()*+,-*./!0!12/*#!3,-.!*&45!678-!"9:;! &!!" %#!" %!!" $#!" $!!" #!"!" $&!&" $%!&" $$!&" $!!&"!'!&"!*!&"!)!&"!(!&"!#!&"!+!&"!&!&"!%!&"!$!&"!!!&" ''!&" '*!&" ')!&" '(!&" '#!&" ",-./0"1234"/567"839::6.;4"+"5<6306:=>"?;3"@AB"

Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2013 (Q3) "#$%!"#$%&&'()*+,-.$*/0*1+23.+0'/.*/&+455674589+:9+ &#$% '#$% #$% #(#"% #)#"% #*#"% #+#"% #,#"% '##"% ''#"% '&#"% '"#"%!'#$%!&#$%!"#$% %-./01223456%78906:;6<=%$%

Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2013 (Q3) &####$!"#$%&'(#)*+"%',#-.'#/+("(- "%###$ "####$ %###$!%###$ #$ #'#($ #)#($ #*#($ #+#($ "##($ ""#($ "&#($!"####$,-./0121$345-$.627$ $,-./0121$345-$895:-3459;:5<;=25$

Prognostiserad vinsttillväxt 40% Stockholm - Estimated EPS growth, % (YoY) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Estimated EPS growth (median) -20%

USA vinster och värdering 3200 The U.S - S&P EPS x p/e, share prices 1600 800 400 200 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 S&P est EPS 12 months forward (x12) United States, Standard & Poors, 500 S&P est EPS 12 months forward (x15) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs- /konjunkturutsikter på 6-12 månader Värdering

Värdering!"#$%&#'()*)+,-.)/012340567016890) '#"#$ &!"#$ &#"#$ %!"#$ %#"#$!"#$ $-./012.$ $345$ %()*$ %()+$ %())$ %()($ %((#$ %((%$ %((&$ %(('$ %((,$ %((!$ %((*$ %((+$ %(()$ %((($ &###$ &##%$ &##&$ &##'$ &##,$ &##!$ &##*$ &##+$ &##)$ &##($ &#%#$ &#%%$ &#%&$ &#%'$

Värdering Stockholmsbörsen - Relativ p/e (1,0 = balans) 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0,90 0,80 0,70 Relativ p/e (median) 0,60

Värdering!"#$%&'()*'+,$ &!" &$" %!" %$" #!" #$"!" #''(" #'''" %$$$" %$$#" %$$%" %$$&" %$$)" %$$!" %$$*" %$$+" %$$(" %$$'" %$#$" %$##" %$#%" %$#&" ",-."/0/12" ",-."3.12".4/1/." ",-."3.12".4/1/."5.6"789:;"

Värdering!"#$%&'(()*+%,-*./0,0%* '"($ '"'$ '"!$ &"%$ &"#$ &"($ &"'$ &"!$!"%$!"#$ &))%$ &)))$ '!!!$ '!!&$ '!!'$ '!!*$ '!!($ '!!+$ '!!#$ '!!,$ '!!%$ '!!)$ '!&!$ '!&&$ '!&'$ '!&*$ $-./0123445$ $-./0123445$617$89:;<$

Värdering 25 The U.S - S&P p/e-ratio (estimated) 20 15 10 5 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 1/(inflation+3.5%) S&P p/e-ratio Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 25 UK P/E and inverted consumer prices 20 Ratio 15 10 5 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1/(((gbr11802/lag(gbr11802, 12))-1)+0.05) United Kingdom, FTSE, 100, Index, P/E Ratio, End of Period Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 25 Germany P/E and inverted consumer prices 20 Ratio 15 10 5 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1/(((deu11801/lag(deu11801, 12))-1)+0.055) Germany, Deutsche Boerse, DAX 30, Index, P/E Ratio, EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 20,0 France P/E and inverted consumer prices 17,5 15,0 Ratio 12,5 10,0 7,5 5,0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1/(((fra11990/lag(fra11990, 12))-1)+0.06) France, Paris SE, CAC 40 Index, P/E Ratio Source: Reuters EcoWin

Värdering 25,0 Spain P/E and inverted consumer prices 22,5 20,0 17,5 Index 15,0 12,5 10,0 7,5 5,0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1/(((esp11800/lag(esp11800, 12))-1)+0.05) Spain, IBEX, 35 Index, P/E Ratio, EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin

Teknisk analys Stockholm 2008-03-10

Tekniskt 4 ma 200 0,9566572581 ma 20 1,001258572 OMX-index - Dagshögsta/dagslägsta, i % 3 2 1 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 ma 20 ma 200 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 4,0 USA S&P 500 Index, high % low 3,0 Index 2,0 1,0 0,0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 ma 200 ma 20 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,3 AFGX - momentum 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 mean(ew:swe15500, 1)/mean(swe15500, 200) mean(ew:swe15500, 200)/mean(swe15500, 800) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 90 75 60 45 AFGX, Bond 10 y (index, y o y) 30 25 20 15 Percent 30 15 10 5 Percent 0-15 -30 0-5 -10-45 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-15 Handelsbanken Markets, All Government Bond, Index >10 years [ar 261 obs] SIX, Index (SIXRX), Close [ar 261 obs] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,4 AFGX relative Bonds 10 y 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt Index 500 460 420 380 340 300 260 220 180 140 ASSA ABLOY, CASTELLUM, GETINGE, HENNES & MAURITZ, HUFVUDSTADEN, INTRUM JUSTITIA, MEDA, SVENSKA CELLULOSA, SWEDISH MATCH, TELIA SONERA Stabila bolag 100 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 500 450 400 350 Volvo, Sandvik, SSAB, Boliden, JM, MTG, NCC, Scania, Peab, Atlas Copco Konjunkturkänsliga bolag Index 300 250 200 150 100 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,10 Carnegie rel AFGX Low Momentum High 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 (mean(ew:swe15970, 1)/mean(swe15970, 50))/(mean(ew:swe15510, 1)/mean(swe (mean(ew:swe15970, 200)/mean(swe15970, 800))/(mean(ew:swe15500, 200)/mea (mean(ew:swe15970, 3)/mean(swe15970, 200))/(mean(ew:swe15510,3)/mean(swe Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,15 1,10 AFGX rel Etop Euro (i lokal val), EUR rel SEK Strong AFGX, Strong EUR Low Momentum High 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 (mean(ew:swe19001/emu19001, 3)/mean(swe19001/emu19001, 200)) (mean(ew:swe15500, 3)/mean(swe15500, 200))/(mean(ew:emu15300, 3)/mean(emu15300, 200)) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt 1,20 1,15 AFGX rel S&P 500 (i lokal valuta), USD rel SEK Strong AFGX Strong SEK Low Momentum High 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 (mean(ew:swe19001, 3)/mean(swe19001, 200)) (mean(ew:swe15500, 3)/mean(swe15500, 200))/(mean(ew:usa15510, 3)/mean(usa15510, 200)) Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt Low Momentum High 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 Eurotop Euroland rel S&P 500, USD rel Euro Strong ETOP Strong USD 0,85 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 (mean(ew:xee19001, 3)/mean(xee19001, 200)) (mean(ew:emu15300, 3)/mean(emu15300, 200))/(mean(ew:usa15510, 3)/mean(u Source: Reuters EcoWin

Tekniskt Low Momentum High 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 0,75 0,70 Emerging markets (FTSE) rel S&P 500 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 200 dagar 800 dagar Source: Reuters EcoWin

Börs- /konjunkturutsikter på 6-12 månader Aktiefonder och risk Stockholm 2008-03-10

Aktiesparande ökat samband mellan kursutveckling och fondinsättningar 10,0 Aktieindex och flödet i aktiefonder 100 7,5 75 SEK (billions) 5,0 2,5 0,0 50 25 0 Percent -2,5-25 -5,0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-50 Stockholm (AFGX), Price Return [ar 12 months] Flow into equity funds (annualized) [ma 12] Source: Reuters EcoWin

Aktiesparande ökat samband mellan kursutveckling och fondinsättningar 40 30 20 Fondinsättningar/-uttag (SEK Mdr) 20 15 10 SEK (billions) 10 0-10 5 0-5 Percent -20-30 -10-15 -40 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-20 Swedish Mutual Fund Association, New Savings, Equity Funds, Balance Affärsvärlden, General Index (AFGX), Price Return, Close [c.o.p 1 month] Source: Reuters EcoWin