Kommande klimatförändringar och deras inverkan på odlingsförutsättningarna Thomas Hickler (PhD) Geobiosphere Science Centre Department of Physical Geography & Ecosystems Analysis Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden Phone: +46 (0) 46 2223132; Fax: +46 (0) 46 2220321 email: Thomas.Hickler@nateko.lu.se home page: www.nateko.lu.se/embers Mer uppdaterad information om klimatförändringar finns på: http://www.natgeo.lu.se/courses/nge622/index.html t.ex. länkarna längs nere på sidan IPCC 2007: Summary for policy makers: http://www.ipcc.ch/spm2feb07.pdf Det här är 5 grader! Temperatur på Grönland under och efter den senaste istiden http://www.scotese.com/lastice.htm
+8-8 http://www.smhi.se/sgn0106/if/rc/anim05.htm http://www.smhi.se/sgn0106/if/rc/anim05.htm Temperatur 1 vinter: 2-4 varmare 1,2,9 - missgynnar gran 3,4,5 sommar: 1-3 varmare 1,2,9 Klimatförändringar fram till 2060 Present-day European vegetation zones 2095 Nederbörd 1 vinter: +5 till 50% 1,2,9 sommar: +20 till -40% 1,2,9 (de flesta klimatmodellerna förutsäga torrare sommrar) - kan missgynna föryngring av t.ex. gran och eventuellt bok på sämre jordar Extremare väder - intensivare regn och längre torrperioder 6,7,8 Högre CO2: - upp till 20% snabbare tillväxt - lägre avdunstning och därmed högre tillgång till markvatten!detaljerna rätt osäkra - mångfald kan vara bra - inte alla egg in en korg! Ek t.ex. verkar vara bra om det blir torrare och varmare under sommaren, men ingen vet vad som händer med ekdöden. 1 The latest projections of SMHI regional climate model across Europe: http://www.smhi.se/sgn0106/if/rc/anim05.htm; 2 A study on the vulnerability of European ecosystems, including the forestry sector, to climate change: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/ateam/ateam_final_report_sections_5_to_6.pdf summarised in: Schröter, D. et al. 2005. Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe. Science 310:1333-1337; 3 Sykes, M. T., I. C. Prentice, and W. Cramer. 1996. A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. Journal of Biogeography 23:203-233. 4 Can it be advised to plant spruce (Picea abies) in Southern Sweden? Bradshaw, R. H. W., Holmqvist, B., Cowling, S.A., & Sykes, M.T. 2000. The effects of climate change on the distribution and management of Picea abies in southern Scandinavia. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 30:1992-1998. 5 Jönsson, A. M., M.-L. Linderson, I. Sjernquist, P. Schlyter, and L. Bärring. 2004. Climate change and the effect of temperature backslashes causing frost damage in Picea abies. Global and Planetary Change 44:195-207. 6 Draft document from IPCC (FNs klimatpanel; www.ipcc.ch), which will be published in 2007 7 Christensen, J. H., and O. B. Christensen. 2003. Climate modelling: Severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature 421:805-806. 8 Schär, C., P. L. Vidale, D. Luthi, C. Frei, C. Haberli, M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller. 2004. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. 427:332-336. 9 A study on climate change in Europe, using a range of high resolution climate models: http://prudence.dmi.dk/ Results here recently published in the journal Climatic Change. Hickler, Miller, Smith, Sykes, unpublished
Climate analogs 2050, 2080 for 2 and 5 degrees warming in the U.K. CO 2 is a resource for plants Broadmeadow, M.S.J., Ray, D., Samuel, C.J.A., 2005. Climate change and the future for broadleaved tree species in Britain. Forestry 78, 145-161. Ainsworth, E.A., Long, S.P., 2005. What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytologist 165, 351-372. Kimball, B.A., Kobayashi, K., Bindi, M., 2002. Responses of agricultural crops to Free-Air CO2 Enrichment. Advances in Agronomy 77, 293-367. Reich, P.B., Hungate, B.A., Luo, Y., 2006. Carbon-nitrogen interactions in terrestrial ecosystems in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 37, 611-636. Changes in cereal (wheat, rice, maize, soybean) yields under climate change (HadCM3, B2) Parry, M., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Fischer, G., Livermore, M., 1999. Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environmental Change 9, S51-S67. Parry et al. 2004
200 millioner klimatflyktningar vid 2050 5-20% mindre global BNP (Stern report 2006: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm DUST BOWL The Great Planes in the U.S. in the 1930s short summary: http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1935211,00.html ) Schaphoff, S., W. Lucht, D. Gerten, S. Sitch, W. Cramer, Prentice, I.C., 2006. Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections. Climatic Change 74, 97-122. ATEAM (www.pik-potsdam.de/ateam) climate scenarios ATEAM climate scenarios Alberte Bondeau, personal communication a1fihadcm3 a2pcm a1fihadcm3 a2pcm wheat lentils maize sugarbeet Crop model used: Bondeau, A., Smith, P., Zaehle, S., et al., 2007. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon cycle. Global Change Biology 13: 679-706 Alberte Bondeau, personal communication
Modelled suitability for grain maize cultivation Olsson et al., Climatic Change, in press Organisms move individualistically: mis-matches might occur Green: suitable 1961-1990 Red: suitable 2071-2100 for 7 regional climate models (RCMs) Blue: suitable 2071-2100 for some but not all RCMs (www.prudence.dmi.dk) Both, C., Bouwhuis, S., Lessells, C.M., Visser, M.E., 2006. Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. 441, 81-83.