Lönsamhetsberäkningar energihushållningsåtgärder Leif Gustavsson Linnéseminarie 4 september 2013 Linnéuniversitetet, Växjö
People Research leader Leif Gustavsson Researchers Ambrose Dodoo Krushna Mahapatra Ole Jess Olsen Roger Sathre PhD candidates Farshid Bonakdar Kerstin Hemström Nguyen Le Truong Sylvia Haus Uniben Tettey www.lnu.se/sber
On-going external projects (incomplete list) Low energy bio-based society (4 MSEK). Creating strategic knowledge on how to develop a resource- and climate-efficient built environment Case-studies in Växjö (4 MSEK) and Ronneby (5 MSEK) Greenhouse gas balance of bioenergy and biomass systems (400 ksek). Swedish Team Leader IEA Task 38 Wood-based energy systems from Nordic forests (17 MNOK). Strategic analyses and optimisation of woody biomass energy systems including forestry Strategic Research Centre for 4th Generation District Heating Technologies and Systems (37 MDDK). Low-temperature systems and low energy housing Use of wood for better climate and increased value creation (37 MNOK). Developing woody based systems for better climate and increased value for society Efficient use of forest biomass to reduce GHG emissions and oil use (1 MSEK). Identifying strategies for the efficient use of forest biomass to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil use
A sustainable built environment in the Kilen area of Ronneby Life cycle primary energy, greenhouse gas and cost analysis of case-study buildings, considering Effects of climate change Energy efficient appliances Heat recovery of ventilation exhaust air Variation of window areas Building-integrated photovoltaic Conventional heating systems, low temperature district heating and individual heating solutions (heat pump with and without solar)
A sustainable built environment in the Kilen area of Ronneby Analysis for small-scale DHS under different taxation schemes Considered technologies: Heat-only boilers: wood chips, wood powder, coal, fuel oil. Electric heat pump Large-scale solar water heating Combined heat and power (CHP): Coal fired steam turbine (CST) Fossil gas turbine combined-cycle (FGCC) Biomass steam turbine (BST) Biomass integrated gasification combined-cycle (BIGCC) Biomass integrated gasification with gas engine (BIGGE)
Energy renovation in existing buildings in Kallinge, Ronneby Implications of energy renovation measures on cost, primary energy use and carbon dioxide emission Potential measures to be analysed: Extra insulation to walls, basement, roofs, reduced thermal bridges Efficient water taps New windows Heat exchanger (FTX) in ventilation system Efficient lighting and electric appliance Temperature sensors Adjustment of end-use heating systems Change of drainage system around building Balcony replacement Owned by Ronnebyhus AB
A sustainable built environment in existing and new urban areas in Växjö Renovation of existing buildings Romalyckan/ Furutåvägen buildings Alabastern Analysis for new buildings Täppan Torparängen & Bäckaslöv Consideration of low-temperature district heating and individual heating solutions (e.g. heat pumps with or without solar thermal heaters) Consideration of different energy efficiency levels BBR 2012 Växjö kommun energy plan for new buildings Passive house standard (consideration of optimal level with LCC)
Världens primärenergianvändning 2010 ( 500 Exajoul) Olja 33% Kol 27% Gas 21% Totalt fossilt 81% Bioenergi 10% Kärnkraft 6% Övrigt 3% Exa = 10 18 Källa: International Energy Agency, 2012. Key World Energy Statistics
Primary energy demand in new policies scenario Mtoe Source: International Energy Agency, 2011. World Energy Outlook 2011
Primary energy use in EU27 for electricity production in 2010 (TWh) Primary energy use Coal 2468 35%* Electricity production Oil (282) Gas 1726 44%* 862 758 Coal Oil (86) Gas 917 Nuclear Nuclear Hydro (366) Bioenergy Other renewables (233) 2779 585 33%* 366 Hydro Bioenergy (142) Wind (149) Others (29) * Electricity production/primary energy use Source: World Energy Outlook 2012.
Sveriges totala energianvändning 1970-2009 Källa: Energimyndigheten. Energiläget 2010. 11
Slutlig energianvändning inom sektorn bostäder och service m.m. 1970-2009 Källa: Energimyndigheten. Energiläget 2010. 12
Elanvändning inom sektorn bostäder och service m.m. 1970-2008, normalårskorrigerad Källa: Energimyndigheten. Energiläget 2010. 13
Löpande energipriser i Sverige inklusive skatt, 1970 2009 Källa: Energimyndigheten. Energiläget 2010. 14
Vilka åtgärder skall vi beakta?
Vilka åtgärder skall vi beakta? Klimatskalet Tilläggsisolering Vindsbjälklag Grund Väggar Byte av fönster och dörrar Förbättrad lufttäthet Ventilation, värmeåtervinning Värmedistribution injustering Styr och övervakning Tappvarmvatten Armatur Individuell mättning Vitvaror kopplade till tappvarmvatten Elanvändning Fastighetsel Hushållsel
Spelar det roll i vilken ordning vi analyserar åtgärderna? Om så, i vilken ordning skall vi då analysera dem?
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Livslängd åtgärd Minskad energianvändning pga. åtgärd över åtgärdens hela livslängd Minskad energikostnad pga. åtgärd över åtgärdens hela livslängd Prisutveckling för energi som el och fjärrvärme Förändrade drift och underhållskostnader över åtgärdens hela livslängd Kalkylränta Investeringskostnad åtgärd
Vilken metod skall vi använda för lönsamhetsbedömning?
Vilken metod skall vi använda för lönsamhetsbedömning? Nuvärdemetoden Årlig kostnadsbesparing pga. energiåtgärd räkans om till nuvärde och jämförs med investeringskostnad för energiåtgärd
Nuvärdesberäkning (NPV) av en åtgärds lönsamhet F 0 : the initial investment of renovation F 1, 2, n : the annual saved energy cost (for enduser) due to reduced energy use after renovation NPV (of positive cash flow) = F 1 / (1 + r) 1 + F 2 /(1 + r) 2 +... + F n /(1 + r) n Where F = Annual saved energy cost (reduction on energy bill) r = discount rate n = the number of years (lifespan of the renovation measures) Reference: http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com
Nuvärdesberäkning (NPV) av en åtgärds lönsamhet F 0 : the initial investment of renovation F 1, 2, n : the annual saved energy cost (for enduser) due to reduced energy use after renovation NPV (of positive cash flow) lika stor besparing varje år = (F - (1 + r) -n ) /r Where F = Annual saved energy cost (reduction on energy bill) r = discount rate n = the number of years (lifespan of the renovation measures) Reference: http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com
Ett exempel hur beräkna eventuell lönsamhet att byta fönster Fönster behöver målas i helt bostadsområde Det finns inga tätningslister Fönstren går inte att stänga ordentligt Fönstren behöver bytas om fem år Dränering behöver bytas Stor variation av lägenhetstemperaturer Kallt i visa lägenheter Eventuellt kommer FTX-system att installeras med nya tilluftskanaler Nya vitvaror behövs I trapphus vanliga glödlampor
Ett exempel hur beräkna eventuell lönsamhet att byta fönster Fönster behöver målas (minskar kostnad fönsterbyte) Det fanns inga tätningslister (minskar kostnad fönsterbyte) Fönstren går inte att stänga ordentligt (fönsterbyte ökar lufttäthet) Fönstren behöver bytas om fem år (ny injustering värme behövs) Dränering behöver bytas Stor variation av lägenhetstemperaturer (injustering värme behövs) Kallt i visa lägenheter (fönsterbyte ger bättre termisk komfort, möjlighet att sänka inomhustemperatur) Eventuellt kommer FTX-system att installeras med nya tilluftskanaler (ökad lufttäthet ger ökad besparing med FTX) Nya vitvaror behövs (ökad energibesparing med fönsterbyte) I trapphus vanliga glödlampor (byte till ledlampor ger ökad energibesparing med fönsterbyte)
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Livslängd åtgärd 50 år? Hur beräknad minskad energianvändning pga. fönsterbyte? Hur beräkna minskad energikostnad pga. fönsterbyte? Vilken kalkylränta är rimlig Hur beräkna investeringskostnad åtgärd
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Hur bedöma livslängd åtgärd? 50år Hur beräknad minskad energianvändning pga. fönsterbyte? Beräkna byggnadens energibalans för och efter energiåtgärd. Hur beräkna minskad energikostnad pga. fönsterbyte? Vilken kalkylränta är rimlig? Hur beräkna investeringskostnad åtgärd?
Case-study building Multi-story concrete-frame residential building of 1960s 18 apartments Total ground floor area of the building 400 m 2 Total heated floor (excluding exterior walls) = 1430 m 2 Total ventilated volume = 3700 m 3 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L. (2013) Implications of energy efficiency renovation measures for a Swedish residential building on cost, primary energy use and carbon dioxide emission. ECEEE 2013, Belambra Les Criques, France, June 3-8
Case-study building Total area (m 2 ) of the elements of building envelope Building elements on each façade Windows Doors Basement walls Exterior walls of facades Basement and attic slab West facade 7.3 2.1 27.9 104.5 East facade 6.2 0.0 31.14 104.5 North facade 55.0 7.8 82.51 226.4 398 South facade 114.7 35.4 36.27 170.51 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L. (2013) Implications of energy efficiency renovation measures for a Swedish residential building on cost, primary energy use and carbon dioxide emission. ECEEE 2013, Belambra Les Criques, France, June 3-8
Initial state of the building The characteristics of building envelope elements Concrete slab: 200 mm Attic floor 0.248 W/m 2 K Mineral wool: 150mm East / West exterior walls of the facade South / North exterior walls of the facade Concrete wall: 140 mm Mineral wool: 100 mm Brick façade: 120 mm Lightweight Concrete: 70 mm Mineral wool: 100 mm Brick façade: 120 mm 0.339 W/m 2 K 0.290 W/m 2 K Basement walls Concrete slab: 300 mm Mineral wool: 50 mm 0.63 W/m 2 K Windows U-value Double-glazed 2.9 W/m 2 K External doors With double-glazed windows 3.0 W/m 2 K Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L. (2013) Implications of energy efficiency renovation measures for a Swedish residential building on cost, primary energy use and carbon dioxide emission. ECEEE 2013, Belambra Les Criques, France, June 3-8 Sections pictures from VIP-Energy 2.0.8, Strusoft, 2012
Building energy balance modelling Dynamic simulation programme of VIP-Energy (StruSoft, 2012) Initial assumptions: Ventilation system: exhaust air fan: 200 Pa pressure 50% efficiency 0.35 lit/m 2 /sec flow rate Building envelope average airtightness: 0.8 l/s.m 2 at 50 Pa Indoor temperature living areas of 22 o C Indoor temperature common areas of18 o C Electricity use for household and facility management, hot water system and ventilation system were assumed to be unchanged basic assumption Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L. (2013) Implications of energy efficiency renovation measures for a Swedish residential building on cost, primary energy use and carbon dioxide emission. ECEEE 2013, Belambra Les Criques, France, June 3-8
Building modelling using VIP-Energy Climate information for the City of Växjö (Source: Meteonorm ) Ref.: VIP-Energy 2.0.8, Strusoft, 2012
Building modelling using VIP-Energy Climate information for the City of Växjö (Source: Meteonorm ) Ref.: VIP-Energy 2.0.8, Strusoft, 2012
Building modelling using VIP-Energy Climate information for the City of Växjö (Source: Meteonorm ) Ref.: VIP-Energy 2.0.8, Strusoft, 2012
Building modelling using VIP-Energy Climate information for the City of Växjö (Source: Meteonorm ) Ref.: VIP-Energy 2.0.8, Strusoft, 2012
Building modelling using VIP-Energy Building envelope elements: Windows and doors (Defined in model) modelmodel) Ref.: VIP-Energy 2.0.8, Strusoft, 2012
Building modelling using VIP-Energy Windows U-values vs. Solar transmittance U-value, W/m 2 K Total solar transmittance, % 2.9 76 61 1.2 60 49 1.1 56 45 0.9 52 41 0.8 51 40 0.7 49 38 Direct solar transmittance, % Ref.: Helena Bülow-Hübe, Energy-Efficient Window Systems, PhD thesis, Lund, 2001
Building modelling using VIP-Energy Space heat demand of the building envelope before and after implementing energy efficiency measures Energy renovation packages Initial state of building (reference) 107.6 Attic floor extra insulation 102.8 Attic floor extra insulation + Basement walls extra insulation 97.8 Final energy use for space heating, kwh/m 2 /year Attic floor extra insulation + Basement walls extra insulation + Exterior walls extra insulation Attic floor extra insulation + Basement walls extra insulation + Exterior walls extra insulation + Windows replacement Attic floor extra insulation + Basement walls extra insulation + Exterior walls extra insulation + Windows replacement + Doors replacement * : When the indoor temperature can be reduced to 21 C 78.1 54.2 (49.0*) 46.9 (42.3*) Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L. (2013) Implications of energy efficiency renovation measures for a Swedish residential building on cost, primary energy use and carbon dioxide emission. ECEEE 2013, Belambra Les Criques, France, June 3-8
Energihushållning i en befintlig byggnad Trästomme Byggd 1995 4 våningar 16 lägenheter 1190 m 2
Årliga värmeprofiler av byggnadens uppvärmnings-behov med eller utan energihushållning (Växjö) Building heat demand (kw) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Initial + Improved taps + Improved windows & doors + Additional roof insulation + Additional external wall insulation + Ventilation heat recovery 10 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day Adapted from: Truong, N. L, Dodoo, A. and Gustavsson, L. 2013. Effects of heat and electricity saving measures in district-heated multistory residential buildings. (manuscript)
Annual final operation energy use (kwh/m2) with and without energy efficiency measures [excluding efficient appliances] Applied energy saving measures Space heating Tap water heating Ventilation electricity Household/ facility electricity Total Savings Initial 68.7 25.0 4.0 45.0 142.7 - + Improved taps 68.7 15.0 4.0 45.0 132.7 10.0 + Improved windows & doors 50.7 15.0 4.0 45.0 114.7 18.0 + Additional roof insulation 49.7 15.0 4.0 45.0 113.7 1.0 + Additional external walls insulation 43.4 15.0 4.0 45.0 107.4 6.3 + Ventilation heat recovery 18.6 15.0 8.0 45.0 86.6 20.8 Adapted from: Truong, N. L, Dodoo, A. and Gustavsson, L. 2013. Effects of heat and electricity saving measures in district-heated multistory residential buildings. (manuscript)
Efficient electric appliances 44% reduction in electricity use (data from H.Tommerup et al., 2007) 7.53 kwh/m 2 /year increase in final energy use for space heating (based on building energy simulation, VIP+ ) To take into account: Cost implication Primary energy implication
Annual final operation energy use (kwh/m2) with and without energy efficiency measures [including efficient appliances] Applied energy saving measures Space Tap water Ventilation Household/ heating heating electricity facility electricity Total Savings Initial 68.7 25.0 4.0 45.0 142.7 - + Efficient electric appliances 77.8 25.0 4.0 25.1 131.9 10.8 + Improved taps 77.8 15.0 4.0 25.1 121.9 10.0 + Improved windows & doors 59.0 15.0 4.0 25.1 103.1 18.8 + Additional roof insulation 58.0 15.0 4.0 25.1 102.1 1.0 + Additional external walls insulation 51.4 15.0 4.0 25.1 95.5 6.6 + Ventilation heat recovery 24.8 15.0 8.0 25.1 72.9 22.6 Truong, N. L, Dodoo, A. and Gustavsson, L. 2013. Effects of heat and electricity saving measures in district-heated multistory residential buildings. (manuscript)
Effects of airtightness of envelope for energy savings with heat recovery Applied energy saving measures Space heating Tap water heating Ventilation electricity Household/ facility electricity Total Savings Initial 68.7 25.0 4.0 45.0 142.7 - + Efficient electric appliances 77.8 25.0 4.0 25.1 131.9 10.8 + Improved taps 77.8 15.0 4.0 25.1 121.9 10.0 + Improved windows & doors 59.0 15.0 4.0 25.1 103.1 18.8 + Additional roof insulation 58.0 15.0 4.0 25.1 102.1 1.0 + Additional external walls insulation 51.4 15.0 4.0 25.1 95.5 6.6 + Ventilation heat recovery with 0.8 l/(s m²) at 50 Pa 24.8 15.0 8.0 25.1 72.9 22.6 + Ventilation heat recovery with 0.7 l/(s m²) at 50 Pa 23.6 15.0 8.0 25.1 71.7 1.2 + Ventilation heat recovery with 0.6 l/(s m²) at 50 Pa 22.5 15.0 8.0 25.1 70.6 1.1 + Ventilation heat recovery with 0.5 l/(s m²) at 50 Pa 21.4 15.0 8.0 25.1 69.5 1.1 Adapted from: Truong, N. L, Dodoo, A. and Gustavsson, L. 2013. Effects of heat and electricity saving measures in district-heated multistory residential buildings. (manuscript)
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Hur bedöma livslängd åtgärd? 50 år Hur beräknad minskad energianvändning pga. fönsterbyte? 23.9 kwh/m 2 /year 29.1 kwh/m 2 /year om också lägre inomhustemperatur beaktas 30.6 kwh/m 2 /year om också elhushållning beaktas* 32.9 kwh/m 2 /year om också bättre luftttäthet beaktas och om* FTX-system installeras Hur beräkna minskad energikostnad under 50 år pga. fönsterbyte? Hur bedöma relevant kalkylränta? Hur beräkna investeringskostnad åtgärd? *Uppskattat. Beräkningen skall förfinas
0.2 Real price for household in Sweden including energy tax and VAT, Euro/kWh (Swedish Energy Agency, 2011) 0.18 Euro/kWh 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 Annual average increase of electricity real price: 3.7% R² = 0.9249 R² = 0.9399 Annual average increase of DH real price: 1.9% Electricity District Heating 0.04 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 The year Ref.: Swedish Energy Agency, Energy in Sweden facts and figures, 2011
Miljöskatt-scenarier Ingen skatt: 2008 års Svenska bränslekostnader Svensk skatt: 2008 år bränslekostnader plus energi- och miljöskatter inkluderat förmåner för grön el om 12.5/MWh elect Social kostnad -550ppm: 2008 års fossilbränslepriser utan skatter plus en kolskadekostnad om $30/t CO 2 (Stern et al., 2006) Social kostnad -BAU: 2008 års fossilbränslepriser utan skatter plus en kolskadekostnad om $85/t CO 2 (Stern et al., 2006)
Electricity production cost of fuel-based standalone plants 120 No tax Swedish tax 550ppm BAU Standalone electricity production cost ( /MWh) 100 80 60 40 20 0 CST BST BIGCC Technology CST coal steam turbine BST biomass steam turbine BIGCC biomass-integrated gasification combined cycle Adapted from: Truong N.L. and Gustavsson L. 2013. Integrated biomass-based production of district heat, electricity, motor fuels and pellets of different scales. Applied Energy 104:623-632
Primary energy use and cost of district heat production for different taxation scenarios Primary energy use for district heat production (GWh) 400 300 200 100 0 Fuel oil boiler Wood powder boiler 40 Biomass boiler Biomass CHP plant 34.7 34.7 34.6 34.8 Swedish tax Social cost- 550ppm Social cost-bau Renewable based District heat production cost ( /MWh) 30 20 10 0 Swedish tax Social cost- 550ppm Social cost- BAU Renewable based Heat production of about 600 GWh/year. The cogenerated electricity is credit based on power production in a minimum cost stand-alone plant. Adapted from: Truong N.L. and Gustavsson L. 2013. Integrated biomass-based production of district heat, electricity, motor fuels and pellets of different scales. Applied Energy 104:623-632
Primary energy use and cost of district heat production for different taxation scenarios Heat production of about 600 GWh/year. The cogenerated electricity is credit based on power production in a minimum cost stand-alone plant. Note: the error bars signify the variations if the price of wood fuels is driven by stand-alone power plants Adapted from: Truong N.L. and Gustavsson L. 2013. Integrated biomass-based production of district heat, electricity, motor fuels and pellets of different scales. Applied Energy 104:623-632
Annual primary energy use for space heating of houses with different heating systems Adapted from: Dodoo A, Gustavsson L, Sathre R. 2012. Effect of thermal mass on primary energy balances of a concrete and a wood-frame building. Applied Energy 92: 462-472.
Uppmätt varaktig värmelastkurva hos referensanläggningen Östersund från Maj 2008 till April 2009 160 Accumulator 140 Discharged 120 Heat-only boilers Capacity (MW) 100 80 60 40 Flue gas condenser CHP plant 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day Vi modellerar fyra fjärrvärmeproduktioner till lägsta kostnad baserat på referensens värmelastkurva och 4 miljöskattscenarior
Fjärrvärmesystem till lägsta kostnad, svensk skatt Distric t heat production cost ( /MWh) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Light fuel oil boiler Wood powder boiler Biomass boiler Boiler - Light Fuel Oil Boiler - Wood powder CHP - CST CHP - BST CHP-BST 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Utilization time (day/yr) CHP-BIGCC Boiler - Coal Boiler - Biomass CHP - NGCC CHP - BIGCC District heat production cost ( /MWh) Base load, CHP-BST 19.9 Medium load, bio-boiler 40.9 Peak load, oil-boiler 191.2 Average production 25.8 160 160 140 Light Fuel Oil Boiler 140 40MW Light Fuel Oil Boiler (U f = 2.6%) District heat capacity (MW) 120 100 80 60 40 20 Wood Powder Boiler Biomass Boiler CHP-BST CHP-BIGCC District heat capacity (MW) 120 100 80 60 40 20 36MW 84MW heat CHP-BST (U f = 69.2%) Biomass Boiler (U f = 29.8%) 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day Adapted from: Gustavsson L., Dodoo A., Truong N.L. and Danielski I. (2011) Primary energy implications of end-use energy efficiency measures in district heated buildings. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp 38-48
Fjärrvärmesystem till lägsta kostnad, skadekostnad utsläpp växthusgaser BAU Distric t heat production cost ( /MWh) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Light fuel oil boiler Wood powder boiler Biomass boiler CHP-BST Boiler - Light Fuel Oil Boiler - Wood powder CHP - CST CHP - BST 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Utilization time (day/yr) CHP-BIGCC Boiler - Coal Boiler - Biomass CHP - NGCC CHP - BIGCC District heat production cost ( /MWh) Base load, CHP-BST 19.8 Medium load, bio-boiler 38.8 Peak load, oil-boiler 150.2 Average production 25.6 160 160 District heat capacity (MW) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Light Fuel Oil Boiler Wood Powder Boiler Biomass Boiler CHP-BST CHP-BIGCC District heat capacity (MW) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 45MW Light Fuel Oil Boiler (U f = 3.3%) 33MW Biomass Boiler (U f = 33.4%) 82MW heat CHP-BST (U f = 70.0%) 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day Source: Gustavsson L., Dodoo A., Truong N.L. and Danielski I. (2011) Primary energy implications of end-use energy efficiency measures in district heated buildings. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp 38-48
Fjärrvärmesystem till lägsta kostnad, skadekostnad utsläpp växthusgaser 550ppm Distric t heat production cost ( /MWh) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Light fuel oil boiler Wood powder boiler Biomass boiler Boiler - Light Fuel Oil Boiler - Wood powder CHP - CST CHP - BST CHP-BST 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Utilization time (day/yr) CHP-BIGCC Boiler - Coal Boiler - Biomass CHP - NGCC CHP - BIGCC District heat production cost ( /MWh) Base load, CHP-BST 20.0 Medium load, bio-boiler 35.0 Peak load, oil-boiler 107.9 Average production 25.6 160 160 District heat capacity (MW) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Light Fuel Oil Boiler Wood Powder Boiler Biomass Boiler CHP-BST CHP-BIGCC District heat capacity (MW) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 53 MW Light Fuel Oil Boiler (U f = 4.8%) Biomass Boiler (U f = 39.8%) 28 MW 79 MW heat CHP-BST (U f = 71.2%) 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day Adapted from: Gustavsson L., Dodoo A., Truong N.L. and Danielski I. (2011) Primary energy implications of end-use energy efficiency measures in district heated buildings. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp 38-48
Fjärrvärmesystem till lägsta kostnad, ej skatt District heat production cost ( /MWh) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 utilization time of peak load Boiler - Light Fuel Oil Boiler - Wood powder CHP - CST CHP - BST utilization time of medium load 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Utilization time (day/yr) Boiler - Coal utilization time of base load Boiler - Biomass CHP - NGCC CHP - BIGCC District heat production cost ( /MWh) Base load, CHP-CST 19.1 Medium load, coal-boiler 27.3 Peak load, oil-boiler 80.4 Average production 25.0 160 160 140 140 District heat capacity (MW) 120 100 80 60 40 20 64MW Light Fuel Oil Boiler (U f = 6.8%) 34MW Coal Boiler (U f = 52.5%) 62MW heat CHP-CST (U f = 76.9%) District heat capacity (MW) 120 100 80 60 40 20 64MW Light Fuel Oil Boiler (U f = 6.8%) 34MW Coal Boiler (U f = 52.5%) 62MW heat CHP-CST (U f = 76.9%) 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day Source: Gustavsson L., Dodoo A., Truong N.L. and Danielski I. (2011) Primary energy implications of end-use energy efficiency measures in district heated buildings. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp 38-48
Årliga värmeprofiler av byggnadens uppvärmnings-behov med eller utan energihushållning (Växjö) Building heat demand (kw) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Initial + Improved taps + Improved windows & doors + Additional roof insulation + Additional external wall insulation + Ventilation heat recovery 10 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day Adapted from: Truong, N. L, Dodoo, A. and Gustavsson, L. 2013. Effects of heat and electricity saving measures in district-heated multistory residential buildings. (manuscript)
Ratio of primary energy and final energy savings Adapted from: Truong, N. L, Dodoo, A. and Gustavsson, L. 2013. Effects of heat and electricity saving measures in district-heated multistory residential buildings. (manuscript)
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Hur bedöma livslängd åtgärd? 50 år Hur beräknad minskad energianvändning pga. fönsterbyte? 23.9 kwh/m 2 /year 29.1 kwh/m 2 /year om också lägre inomhustemperatur beaktas 30.6 kwh/m 2 /year om också elhushållning beaktas 32.9 kwh/m 2 /year om också bättre luftttäthet beaktas och om FTX-system installeras Hur beräkna minskad energikostnad pga. fönsterbyte? Fjärrvärmetaxa + 2 % prisökning, varierad taxa sommar/vinter Fjärrvärmetaxa + 4 % prisökning, varierad taxa sommar/vinter Hur bedöma relevant kalkylränta? Hur beräkna investeringskostnad åtgärd?
Economic calculation The DH energy price, /kwh 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 R² = 0.9241 0.05 0.04 0.03 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 The year Real DH price (incl. energy tax and VAT), Swedish Energy Agency, 2011 Ref.: Swedish Energy Agency, Energy in Sweden facts and figures, 2011 DH energy price, Växjö energy supplier tariff (VEAB, 2012) Ref. VEAB, Energy Växjö, www.veab.se, 2012
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Hur bedöma livslängd åtgärd? 50 år Hur beräknad minskad energianvändning pga. fönsterbyte? 23.9 kwh/m 2 /year 29.1 kwh/m 2 /year om också lägre inomhustemperatur beaktas 30.6 kwh/m 2 /year om också elhushållning beaktas 32.9 kwh/m 2 /year om också bättre lufttäthet beaktas och om FTX-system installeras Hur beräkna minskad energikostnad pga. fönsterbyte? Fjärrvärmetaxa + 2 % prisökning, varierad taxa sommar/vinter Fjärrvärmetaxa + 4 % prisökning, varierad taxa sommar/vinter Hur bedöma relevant kalkylränta? Hur beräkna investeringskostnad åtgärd?
Staten kan låna till negativ realränta under 10 år STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Om Riksgäldsdirektören Bo Lundgren idag skulle låna upp pengar för statens räkning under tio år så skulle han bara behöva betala 1,5 procent i ränta per år. Om vi antar att Riksbanken uppnår inflationsmålet på 2 procent under perioden, då lånar svenska staten till en negativ realränta på 0,5 procent i tio år. Peter Norman vid en utfrågning i riksdagens finansutskott på torsdagen: Källa SvD 15 december 2011 kl 17:42
Bolån (5 år) realränta efter skatt Källa: Bengt Hansson, Boverket, 2013-08-27 Bolån (5 år) realränta = (Bolån ränta 5 år inflation förväntningar av aktörer för nästa 5 år)
Multiple benefits of energy efficient renovation of buildings - Impact on public finances Energy efficient buildings: why right now? Substantial evidence that energy efficiency of building is a no-regret option: Cost of investments is lower than the value of benefits This is true globally and also in the EU BUT Energy efficiency can also bring substantial co-benefits and improve public finances Now is the time to do it Unemployment is (too) high, so the capacity is there Borrowing costs for investments at record low levels Unemployment high and rising, financing costs all time low Source: Adrian Joyce, EuroACE, ECEEE, Summer Study 2013, France 63
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Hur bedöma livslängd åtgärd? 50 år Hur beräknad minskad energianvändning pga. fönsterbyte? 23.9 kwh/m 2 /year 29.1 kwh/m 2 /year om också lägre inomhustemperatur beaktas 30.6 kwh/m 2 /year om också elhushållning beaktas 32.9 kwh/m 2 /year om också bättre luftttäthet beaktas och om FTX-system installeras Hur beräkna minskad energikostnad pga. fönsterbyte? Fjärrvärmetaxa + 2 % prisökning, varierad taxa sommar/vinter Fjärrvärmetaxa + 4 % prisökning, varierad taxa sommar/vinter Hur bedöma relevant kalkylränta? 2-4% Hur beräkna investeringskostnad åtgärd?
Economic calculation Energy efficiency measures costs (Renovation cost) Ref. Wikells, Sektionsfakta - ROT, 2011/2012
Economic calculation Price estimation for windows replacement, an example Ref. Wikells, Sektionsfakta - ROT, 2011/2012
Scenarios of energy renovation Building in its initial state. No need for building renovation (for repair and maintenance purpose) Energy renovation measures Final energy use for space heating, kwh/m 2 /year Saved energy price, /year (in 2012) Investment cost (cost of efficiency measure implementation), NPV of saved energy price (50 years life time), Investment / NPV of saved final energy price (after 50 years) Initial state of building (reference) 107.6 0 0 0 n/a Attic floor extra insulation 102.8 370 10 900 11 300 0.96 + Basement walls extra insulation 97.8 770 28 800 23 900 1.20 + Exterior walls extra insulation 78.1 2320 107 500 71 900 1.50 + Windows replacement 54.2 4350 228 400 135 000 1.69 + Doors replacement 46.9 4930 266 800 153 000 1.74 Net Present Value of saved DH price during assumed life time (50 years). Discount rate = 4% & Annual energy price increase = 1.9% Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L. (2013) Implications of energy efficiency renovation measures for a Swedish residential building on cost, primary energy use and carbon dioxide emission. ECEEE 2013, Belambra Les Criques, France, June 3-8