Energirenovering av flerbostadshus Lönsamma renoveringspaket. Linnéseminarie 11 december 2014 Linnéuniversitetet, Växjö

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1 Energirenovering av flerbostadshus Lönsamma renoveringspaket Linnéseminarie 11 december 2014 Linnéuniversitetet, Växjö

2 Global primärenergianvändning och trender i utveckling till 2035 enligt internationella energimyndigheten (IEA)* Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 *Den bedömda utvecklingen inbegriper nya policyscenarier i vilka länderna ökar sina åtaganden för att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser

3 Energirenovering Optimera 1. Först enskild åtgärd 2. Sedan renoveringspaket

4 Skilj på samhällsekonomisk och företagsekonomisk kalkyl

5 Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Livslängd åtgärd Minskad energianvändning pga. åtgärd över åtgärdens hela livslängd Minskad energikostnad pga. åtgärd över åtgärdens hela livslängd Prisutveckling för energi som el och fjärrvärme Förändrade drift och underhållskostnader över åtgärdens hela livslängd Kalkylränta Investeringskostnad åtgärd

6 Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP4.5: Kraftfull klimatpolitik, lägre energiintensitet, skogsplantering Adapted from SMHI:

7 Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP 8.5: Ingen tillkommande klimatpolitik, hög energiintensitet, långsam teknikutvecklingen energieffektivitet, stort beroende av fossila bränslen Adapted from SMHI:

8 Elproduktion med åtföljande primärenergianvändning inom EU27 år 2010 (TWh) Primary energy use Coal %* Electricity production Oil (282) Gas %* 44%* Coal Oil (86) Gas 917 Nuclear Nuclear Hydro (366) Bioenergy Other renewables (233) %* 24%* 366 Hydro Bioenergy (142) Wind (149) Others (29) * Electricity production/primary energy use Source: World Energy Outlook 2012.

9 Elproduktion inom EU från 2000 till 2013 och trend till 2050 Källa: European Commission, 2013

10 Miljöskattscenarier Ingen skatt: 2008 års Svenska bränslekostnader Svensk skatt: 2008 år bränslekostnader plus energi- och miljöskatter inkluderat förmåner för grön el om 12.5/MWh elect Social kostnad -550ppm: 2008 års fossilbränslepriser utan skatter plus en kolskadekostnad om $30/t CO 2 (Stern et al., 2006) Social kostnad -BAU: 2008 års fossilbränslepriser utan skatter plus en kolskadekostnad om $85/t CO 2 (Stern et al., 2006)

11 Electricity production cost of fuel-based standalone plants 120 No tax Swedish tax 550ppm BAU Standalone electricity production cost ( /MWh) CST BST BIGCC Technology CST coal steam turbine BST biomass steam turbine BIGCC biomass-integrated gasification combined cycle Adapted from: Truong N.L. and Gustavsson L Integrated biomassbased production of district heat, electricity, motor fuels and pellets of different scales. Applied Energy 104:

12 Löpande energipriser i Sverige inklusive skatt, Öre/kWh Electric heating, domestic Gas oil Fossil gas, residential District heating Forest fuels Year Källa: Energimyndigheten. Energiläget 2010,

13 0,2 Real price for household in Sweden including energy tax and VAT, Euro/kWh (Swedish Energy Agency, 2011) 0,18 Euro/kWh 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 Annual average increase of electricity real price: 3.7% R² = 0,9249 R² = 0,9399 Annual average increase of DH real price: 1.9% Electricity District Heating 0, The year Ref.: Swedish Energy Agency, Energy in Sweden facts and figures, 2011

14 Staten kan låna till negativ realränta under 10 år STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Om Riksgäldsdirektören Bo Lundgren idag skulle låna upp pengar för statens räkning under tio år så skulle han bara behöva betala 1,5 procent i ränta per år. Om vi antar att Riksbanken uppnår inflationsmålet på 2 procent under perioden, då lånar svenska staten till en negativ realränta på 0,5 procent i tio år. Peter Norman vid en utfrågning i riksdagens finansutskott på torsdagen: Källa SvD 15 december 2011 kl 17:42

15 Olika scenarier Sustainability: 1% discount rate 3% annul energy price increase Intermediate: 3% discount rate 2% annul energy price increase BAU: 5% discount rate 1% Energy price increase Potential lifetime of measures after renovation: 40, 50, 60 years

16 Klimat ort och år Climate information for the City of Växjö (Source: Meteonorm) Average data between )

17 Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP4.5: Kraftfull klimatpolitik, lägre energiintensitet, skogsplantering Adapted from SMHI:

18 Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP 8.5: Ingen tillkommande klimatpolitik, hög energiintensitet, långsam teknikutvecklingen energieffektivitet, stort beroende av fossila bränslen Adapted from SMHI:

19 Economic calculation Energy efficiency measures costs (Renovation cost) Ref. Wikells, Sektionsfakta - ROT, 2011/2012

20 The DH energy price, /kwh 0,09 0,08 0,07 0,06 0,05 0,04 Price calculation of energy for space heating R² = 0,9241 0, The year Ref.: Swedish Energy Agency, Energy in Sweden facts and figures, 2011 Real DH price (incl. energy tax and VAT), Swedish Energy Agency, 2011 DH energy price, Växjö energy supplier tariff (VEAB, 2012) Ref. VEAB, Energy Växjö,

21 Hur påverkar energihushållning i byggnader fjärrvärmeproduktion Avspeglar fjärrvärmepris verklig kostnadsvariation av fjärrvärmeproduktionen? District heat capacity (MW) Building heat demand (kw) MW Wood powder Boiler 66 MW Wood chips Boiler 69 MW heat CHP-BST Day savings from Wood powder boiler savings from Wood chip boiler Before energy efficiency measures After energy efficiency measures savings from CHP-BST unit savings from Wood chip boiler Day

22 Optimering av enskild åtgärd Marginal net present value of saved energy EQUAL TO Marginal investment cost

23 Case-study building Multi-story concrete-frame residential building of 1960s Total area (m 2 ) of the elements of building envelope Building elements on each façade Windows and the glass share of door West facade Basement walls (above the ground level) Basement walls (below the ground level) Exterior walls of facades 107 East facade North facade South facade Basement and attic slab apartments Total ground floor area of the building = 400 m 2 Total heated floor = 1430 m 2 Total ventilated volume = 3710 m 3 Sustainable Built Environment Research Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

24 Initial state of the building The characteristics of building envelope elements The elements Components U Value Area Attic floor Concrete slab: 200 mm Mineral wool: 150mm W/m 2 K 400 m 2 East / West exterior walls of the facade Concrete wall: 140 mm Mineral wool: 100 mm Brick façade: 120 mm W/m 2 K 214 m 2 South / North exterior walls of the facade Lightweight Concrete: 70 mm Mineral wool: 100 mm Brick façade: 120 mm W/m 2 K 390 m 2 Basement walls Concrete slab: 300 mm Mineral wool: 50 mm 0.63 W/m 2 K 200 m 2 Windows /Doors 2.9 / 3.0 W/m 2 Total share of glass: 196 m 2 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

25 Energy efficiency measures for the elements of building fabric Building fabric elements Initial U value (W/m 2 K) Energy efficiency measures The range of considered thicknesses(mm) for extra insulation and U values (W/m 2 K) for new windows Exterior walls of the façade Extra mineral wool panels ( value = 0.034W/mK) 45 to 510 Basement exterior walls Attic floor Windows 2.9 Extra insulation of EPS panel ( value = 0.039W/mK) Extra mineral wool ( value = 0.037W/mK) Replacing the existing windows by the new windows with lower U value 70 to to to 0.6 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

26 Contribution of extra insulation thickness of opaque elements and improved windows to reduced final energy for space heating Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

27 Energy efficiency measures Different thicknesses, improved U value, investment cost and marginal investment cost of extra insulation on exterior walls Extra mineral wool panels with air gap and new cladding consideration, On exterior wall Thicknesses of extra insulation (mm) Final energy for space heating (kwh/m 2 /year) Saved energy for space heating (kwh/m 2 /year) Marginal saved energy for space heating (kwh/year) Investment cost ( ) Sustainable Built Environment Research Marginal investment ( )

28 Insulation of exterior walls Marginal Net present value of saved energy Thickness of extra insulation (mm) Marginal NPV of saved energy cost ( ), For discount rate of 3% and energy price increase of 2% 40 years lifespan 50 years lifespan 60 years lifespan Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

29 Insulation exterior walls: Marginal NPV of saved energy MINUS marginal investment cost Thickness of extra insulation (mm) Marginal cost difference: discount rate of 3% and energy price increase of 2% 40 years lifespan 50 years lifespan 60 years lifespan Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

30 Extra insulation on exterior walls Optimum Extra insulation thickness (mm) Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

31 Marginal cost difference of exterior wall insulation for different lifespans, considering sustainability scenarios Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

32 Marginal cost difference of exterior wall insulation, for 50 years lifespan for the intermediate, BAU and sustainability scenarios Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

33 Optimum measures and their corresponding U value of the elements for different lifespans and economic scenarios (same results in the form of bar charts ) Note 1: Numbers on top of the main bars are element s U-Values (W/m 2 K) for 50 years lifespan Note 2: Error bars show the lifespans of 40 and 60 years Extra insulation thickness (mm) BAU Intermediate Sustainability 0 BBR criteria for U-Value Exterior walls Basement walls Attic floor Passive house criteria for U-Value Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)

34 The cost-effectiveness of building envelope renovation packages: Kostnad investering nuvärdet av sparad energi Kostnad investering / nuvärdet av sparad energi 1

35 Cost-effectiveness of single elements renovation (No need for renovation) 3,50 Cost effectiveness of single elements refurbishment (No need for refurbishment) 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 Sustainability Intermediate BAU 1,00 0,50 0,00 Basement walls Attic floor Windows Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the cost effectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Costeffective Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

36 Cost-effectiveness of single elements renovation (Need for renovation) 3,50 Cost effectiveness of single elements refurbishment (need for renovation) 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 Sustainability Intermediate BAU 0,00 Basement walls Attic floor Windows Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the cost effectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

37 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

38 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

39 Renovation packages based on cost-effectivenss of single measure Packages Energy efficiency measures Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Renovation of basement walls + attic floor Renovation of basement walls + attic floor + windows Renovation of basement walls + attic floor + windows + exterior walls Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

40 Cost-effectiveness of renovation packages (No need for renovation) 3,00 Cost effectiveness of refurbishment packages (No need for refurbishment) 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Basement wall + Attic Basement wall + Attic + Windows Basement wall + Attic + Windows + Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the cost effectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Sustainability Intermediate BAU Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

41 Cost-effectiveness of renovation packages (Need for renovation) 2,50 Cost effectiveness of refurbishment packages (need for renovation) 2,00 1,50 Sustainability 1,00 Intermediate 0,50 BAU 0,00 Basement wall + Attic Basement wall + Attic + Windows Basement wall + Attic + Windows + Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the costeffectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

42 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

43 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript

44 Thank you!