MOBILITY FUTURES Maria Schnurr Sustainability Day 2018 30 january 2018, Handelshögskolan Göteborg
CONTENT Drivers and trends Impacts Best practices
TRANSPORT S CRUCIAL ROLE GHG emissions Sweden Förbränning av fossila bränslen står för det största bidraget till växthuseffekten både i Sverige och i övriga världen. other 70% Transport sector 30% Transporternas klimatpåverkan står för cirka 30 procent av Sveriges växthusgasutsläpp. Source: Trafikverket 2017
TRANSPORT S CRUCIAL ROLE Det kommer inte att räcka med tekniska åtgärder som energieffektivare fordon och drivmedel för att nå dessa mål. Det behövs även en ny inriktning i planeringen och utvecklingen av samhället och infrastrukturen. Vägtrafikens användning av fossila bränslen (SE) Source: Trafikverket 2017
ELECTRIFICATION Current vehicle stock: over 1,2 mio EVs (corresponds to around 1% of total vehicle stock) New entrants disrupt market Incumbents commitments to higher electrification, e.g. Volvo s announcement to go all-electric (BEV or hybrid) by 2019 Batteries Charging infrastructure Range Costs
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
AV PILOTS OVER THE WORLD https://avsincities.bloomberg.org
AND IN EUROPE https://avsincities.bloomberg.org
MOBILITY SERVICES Station-based carsharing Free-floating carsharing P2P carsharing Please book vehicles from our company at fixed stations in your neighborhood You can book vehicles from our company anywhere in the assigned area. My car is gathering dust. You can rent it a couple days. Helps me cover my costs. Ridesharing Ride-hailing Bikesharing I drive to Ystad, so please come along and take a seat. And please pay for it Who needs taxis? everybody can offer their own car as a taxi! An app matches you with riders. Traveling to another town and want to discover the city by bike? Just rent one from our stations!
SO WHAT do we want to achieve? Decarbonisation Fossil-free, zero emission mobility Congestion-free cities Public health Equality and accessibility Denis Nevozhai
WHAT WE WILL NOT MISS IN THE FUTURE Ryan Searle freestocks.com
RATHER, WE WANT Susan Yin Benjamin Combs
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Positive effects Facilitation of on-demand travel and ride sharing, reducing vehicles and mileage/vkm Higher usage of transit as autonomous vehicles on flexible schedules and routes provide better access to transport nodes Lower land use through reduced parking requirements, better usage of road capacities, reduced lane width demands, and improved traffic flows Negative effects Induced demand through better accessibility (new locations; new user groups) and reduced costs through eliminated labor costs Higher usage due to possibility to use time more effectively Higher land use, esp. suburban sprawl and increase in other automobile-dependent locations, as costs/burden of driving decrease
HOW TO ACHIEVE MORE POSITIVE THAN NEGATIVE EFFECTS Autonomous MaaS Sharing Electrification
THE LISBON STUDY (ITDP/OECD) Quantified the effects of the combination of shared mobility with automation and electrification on a global level Reductions in emissions and energy use mainly achieved by a reduction of car travel by 50% in 2050, enabled by the widespread adoption of a) on-demand travel with substantial ride sharing b) public transport c) cycling and walking Automation alone could significantly increase congestion and urban sprawl. But if combined with a corresponding shift toward shared mobility and greater use of transit and active transport it could yield a cut in global energy use from urban passenger transportation by over 70%, and cut in CO 2 emissions by over 80%.
DRIVESWEDEN ABC ABC = Autonomous BaseCamp Test, trial, demonstrate new technologies all over Sweden Participation of citizens and municipalities as key component
HÄNG MED!