Strategy & Macro Research september 2014 Swedbank Economic Outlook September 2014 Divergerande penningpolitik Geopolitisk oro försvagar Eurozonen Relativt god tillväxt döljer sårbarheter i svensk ekonomi Marknadsräntor lågt länge Globala utsikter: Ett starkt USA och ett svagt EMU risker har ökat Bidrag till global tillväxt (p.e.) 4,5 4,0 4,0 3,5 3,3 3,4 USA och Storbritannien drar ifrån, eurozonen sackar efter 3,9 3,4 Indien 3,0 Kina 2,5 Penningpolitisk divergens Japan 2,0 Eurozonen 1,5 USA 1,0 Övriga 0,5 Global BNP (PPP) 0,0-0,5 2012 2013 2014p 2015p Risker Handelskrig med Ryssland 2016p Källor: Ecowin och Swedbanks prognos Riskscenario för prognoser (sannolikhet i %) 70 Värre En inbromsning i Kina Bättre 20 Huvudscenario 30 Bättre 40 Värre 50 Huvudscenario 60 10 0Swedbank Källor: Swedbank augusti april 1
Ryssland vänder Väst ryggen EU och Rysslands utrikeshandel, % av total handel 50 Ryssland är ekonomiskt mer sårbart för sanktioner än EU 40 30 20 Handelskonflikten fortsätter sannolik 10 0 EU export till Ryssland, % av total export* EU import från Ryssland, % av total import* Källa: UN Comtrade database Rysslands export Rysslands import till EU, % av total från EU, % av total export import * Exkl. Österrike Ryssland väljer ny väg => Nedåtpress på inflation och tillväxt i Europa USA: Hökar vs. Duvor Inflationen fortsatt måttlig Nominella löneökningarna dämpade Arbetskraftsgapet fortfarande betydande => Kvantitativa lättnader avslutas under hösten, Fed funds rate höjs Q2 2
USA: Robust sysselsättningsökning dämpades God sysselsättning trots svag inledning på 2014 Inflationen inte driven av löneökningar USA: Mått på kärninflation och löner 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Kärninflation Kärn-PCE Genomsnittlig timlöm 0,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 Källa: Ecowin EMU: Aggressiv politik krävs Avstannad tillväxt i Tyskland, Frankrike och Italien Låg inflation Hög arbetslöshet Stark euro 3
Sverige Svensk ekonomi har klarat sig väl BNP nivåer (K4-07=100) 109 NOR 107 105 103 101 99 97 USA SVE TYS FRA UK HOL 95 DAN 93 FIN 91 89 K4-07 K2-08 K4-08 K2-09 K4-09 K2-10 K4-10 K2-11 K4-11 K2-12 K4-12 K2-13 K4-13 K2-14 4
men relativt god tillväxt döljer svagheter i återhämtning Inhemsk efterfrågan; konsumtion och bostadsinvesteringar driver tillväxten Nettoexporten faller, och därmed företagsinvesteringarna Valet: Allt pekar på att det blir en valrysare 55 50 45 Under sommarens lopp har avståndet krympt mellan blocken 40 35 30 Källor: Valmyndigheten, SCB, Ekot/Novus Poll of Polls Anm Sep(2) avser Alliansen Röd-Gröna Distribution of seats in the Riksdag according to recent polls September månads mätningar ger de rödgröna 172 mandat, vilket är tre mandat ifrån egen majoritet 200 180 160 34 140 120 100 80 18 18 23 26 60 112 40 80 20 38 0 The Alliance The Red-Greens Sweden Democrats M FP C KD S V MP SD 5
Riskbilden är mot ökade offentliga utgifter Underskott i offentliga finanser Valet 2014 Avviserade reformer budgetneutrala Budgetunderskott Dämpat inflationstryck under hela prognosperioden Låg importerad inflation och svårt för företag att ta ut kostnadsökningar Kronförsvagning under våren ger ökande inflation under hösten Sverige: Sektorvis inflationsutveckling 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Varor Tjänster Boende -15 jan-08 sep-08 maj-09 jan-10 sep-10 maj-11 jan-12 sep-12 maj-13 jan-14 Källa: SCB 3,00% 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% CPIF Swedbank Riksbanken Sep 1,00% 0,50% 0,00% jan- 10 jan- 11 jan- 12 jan- 13 jan- 14 jan- 15 jan- 16-0,50% 6
Riksbanken: ytterligare sänkning i år, första höjning 2016 1. Inflation, 2. Inflationsförväntningar, 3. ECB 2,50 2,00 Outcome Riksbank (July) Swedbank (Aug) Riba (Sep 5) Riksbankens prognos 1,50 1,00 Swedbanks prognos 0,50 Riba (sep5) 0,00 2010-11-01 2011-09-01 2012-07-01 2013-05-01 2014-03-01 2015-01-01 2015-11-01 2016-09-01 Långsiktigt nivå på reporäntan 3%? Uppdatering av Riksbankens egna indikatorer; (1) real BNP-tillväxt är lägre, (2) nominella och reala marknadsräntor har sjunkit, Marknadsaktörernas förväntningar om nivån på nominell reporänta om 60 månader, juni 2005 - januari 2014 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 (3) förväntningarna på reporäntan i Prosperas enkäter sjunker, och (4) Även terminsräntorna har sjunkit och indikerar en lägre nivå på reporäntan Graf 3: Nominella terminsräntor, 3- månadersränta om 5 år, procent 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Nominell terminsränta, 5år Reporänta 60 månader median Reporänta 60 månader medelvärde Inflationsförväntningar, 5 år Källa: TNS SIFO Prospera, Reuters Ecowin Nominell terminsränta, 5år Källa: Bloomberg och egna beräkningar Riksbankens egna indikatorer ger intervall på 2%-4% 7
12 Policy-räntor förblir låga Styrräntor i Sverige, euroområdet och USA sedan 1993 Marknadsräntor: Flackare i USA, brantare i EMU, Sverige mittemellan 10 8 6 4 2 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sverige Euroområdet USA Källa: Reuters EcoWin och Swedbank EURUSD testar 1.30 och drar USDSEK mot 7.20, medan EURSEK mot 9.30 under hösten Feds avslutar sina obligationsköp i höst. BOE och Fed börja höja första halvåret nästa år, ECB:s balansräkning börjar växa igen med syfte att få fart på krediter och försvaga EUR ECB och Fed går skilda vägar. Positiv flödesbild för euron dämpas och uppvägs av relativa räntor Riksbanken har liknande bekymmer som ECB i närtid, dvs risk för fallande inflationsförväntningar. USDSEK siktar mot 7.20 under hösten 8
Tack! Kontaktinformation Macro Research Olof Manner Ott Jalakas Cathrine Danin Lija Strašuna olof.manner@swedbank.se ott.jalakas@swedbank.se cathrine.danin@swedbank.se lija.strasuna@swedbank.lv Head of Macro Head of Strategy Economist +46 (0)70 567 9312 +468 700 99 12 +468 5859 34 92 +371 6744 58 75 Anna Felländer Magnus Alvesson Øystein Børsum Laura Galdikienė anna.fellander@swedbank.se magnus.alvesson@swedbank.se oystein.borsum@swedbank.no laura.galdikiene@swedbank.lt Chief Economist Sweden Head of Economic Forecasting +468 700 99 64 +468 5859 33 41 +479 950 03 92 +370 5258 22 75 Harald-Magnus Andreassen Knut Hallberg Synne Holbæk-Hanssen Vaiva Šečkutė harald.magnus.andreassen@swedbank.no knut.hallberg@swedbank.se synne.holbaek-hanssen@swedbank.no vaiva.seckute@swedbank.lt Chief Economist Norway Reserach Assistant +472 311 82 60 +468 700 93 17 +47 23 23 82 63 +370 5258 21 56 Tõnu Mertsina Jörgen Kennemar Liis Elmik Strategy tonu.mertsina@swedbank.ee jorgen.kennemar@swedbank.se liis.elmik@swedbank.ee Anders Eklöf Chief Economist Estonia anders.eklof@swedbank.se +372 888 75 89 +468 700 98 04 +372 888 72 06 Chief FX Strategist Nerijus Mačiulis Åke Gustafsson Teele Reivik nerijus.maciulis@swedbank.lt ake.gustafsson@swedbank.se teele.reivik@swedbank.ee Jerk Matero Chief Economist Lithuania Economist jerk.matero@swedbank.se +370 5258 22 37 +468 700 91 45 +372 888 79 25 Chief IR Strategist Mārtiņš Kazāks Anna Breman Kristilla Skrūzkalne martins.kazaks@swedbank.lv anna.breman@swedbank.se kristilla.skruzkalne@swedbank.lv Hans Gustafson Deputy Group Chief Economist Economist hans.gustafson@swedbank.se Chief Economist Latvia +468 700 91 42 +371 6744 58 44 Chief EM Economist & Strategist +468 700 91 38 +468 700 99 76 +371 6744 58 59 +468 700 91 47 9
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