Swedbank Economic Outlook Swedbank analyserar den svenska och de baltiska ekonomierna - 10 April, 2013

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1 Swedbank Economic Outlook Swedbank analyserar den svenska och de baltiska ekonomierna - 10 April, 2013

2 Introduktion Makroekonomiska indikatorer, f 2014f Real BNP tillväxt, årlig förändring i % Sverige (kalenderkorrigerad) 3,7 1,2 1,6 2,7 Estland 8,3 3,2 3,3 4,2 Lettland 5,5 5,6 4,3 5 Litauen 5,9 3,6 4 4 Arbetslöshetsnivå,% av arbetskraften Sverige 7,8 8 8,3 8,2 Estland 12,5 10,2 9,5 8,9 Lettland 16,2 14,9 13,5 11,5 Litauen 15,3 13,2 11,5 10 Inflation (KPI), årlig förändring i% Sverige 3 0,9 0,3 1,8 Estland 5 3,9 3,3 2,9 Lettland 4,4 2,3 1,1 3,5 Litauen 4,1 3,1 2,5 3,4 Bytesbalansen,% av BNP Sverige 7,3 7 6,5 6,1 Estland 2,1-1,2-2,5-2,7 Lettland -2,2-1,7-2,8-3,8 Litauen -3,7-0,5-0,9-2,3 Källor: Nationell statistik och Sw edbank. 2

3 Introduktion Enhetsarbetskostnader (index 2000=100; sa) Italien Grekland Frankrike Spanien Irland Portugal Tyskland Källor: Eurostat och Riksbanken. 3

4 Introduktion Årlig tillväxt, % EMU Sverige Estland Lettland Litauen Källor: Nationella statistiska myndigheten och Swedbank. 4

5 Global Global real BNP-prognos, (årlig tillväxt i procent)1/ Utfall April 2013 January USA 1,8 2,2 1,8 2,6 2,2 2 2,3 EMU 1,5-0,5-0,6 1-0,4-0,3 0,7 Tyskland 3 0,7 0,6 1,9 0,9 0,2 1,5 Frankrike 1,7 0-0,7 0,5 0 0,1 0,7 Italien 0,6-2,2-1,5 0,5-2,1-1,1 0 Spanien 0,4-1,4-1,8 0, ,1 0,1 Finland 2,8 0,1 0,7 1,8-0,2 0,5 2 Storbritannien 0,8 0 0,8 1,8-0,1 1 1,7 Danmark 1,1-0,2 1 1,5-0,5 0,4 1,4 Norge 1,2 3,2 2,1 2,3 3,2 2 2,3 Japan -0,7 1,9 1,3 1,6 1,8 0,7 1,2 Kina 9,2 7,8 8,3 8 7,7 7,9 7,5 Indien 7,2 5,1 6,4 6,8 5,5 6 6,5 Brasilien 2,7 0,9 3,5 4 1,4 3,5 4 Ryssland 4,3 3,4 3,3 4 3,6 3,7 4,1 Global BNP (PPP)2/ 3,9 3 3,1 3,7 3 3,1 3,4 Global BNP (US dollar)2/ 2,9 2,4 2,4 3 2,3 2,3 2,8 Källor: Nationell statistik och Swedbank. 1/ Länder som representerar ca. 70 % av världsekonomin. 2/ Nya vikter från Världsbanken 2011 har använts. Om samma vikter hade använts i oktober, hade den globala tillväxten prognosticerats till 3,1 %, 3,2 % och 3,5 % för 2012, 2013 och

6 Global EMU industrisektor Årlig industriproduk tion, % -10 Förtroende (nettotal) jan-05 nov-05 sep-06 jul-07 maj-08 mar-09 jan-10 nov-10 sep-11 jul-12 Källa: Eurostat 6

7 Sverige Sverige: Försörjningsbalans Procent volymförändring 2011 Hushållens konsumtionsutgifter 2,1 1,5 (1,4) 2,5 (2,1) 2,9 (3,0) Offentliga konsumtionsutgifter 1,1 0,8 (0,5) 1,0 (0,8) 1,2 (1,1) Fasta bruttoinvesteringar 6,4 3,4 (3,1) 1,1 (1,0) 4,2 (4,2) näringsliv exkl. bostäder 6,2 7,3 (6,8) 2,8 (1,7) 4,8 (5,1) offentliga myndigheter -1,4 3,9 (2,9) 2,3 (3,1) 3,8 (2,9) bostäder 14,7-9,1 (-8,1) -6,4 (-3,5) 2,3 (2,2) Lagerinvesteringar 2/ 0,5-1,1 (-0,8) 0,0 (-0,2) 0,0 (0,0) Export av varor och tjänster 7,0 0,7 (0,0) 0,9 (1,0) 4,2 (4,0) Import av varor och tjänster 6,3-0,1 (-0,6) 1,2 (1,5) 4,7 (4,7) BNP 3,7 0,8 (0,8) 1,6 (1,1) 2,6 (2,5) BNP, kalenderkorrigerad 3,7 1,2 (1,1) 1,6 (1,1) 2,7 (2,6) Inhemsk slutlig användning 2/ 2,5 1,6 (1,4) 1,6 (1,4) 2,5 (2,5) Nettoexport 2/ 0,7 0,4 (0,3) -0,1 (-0,1) 0,0 (0,0) Källor: SCB och Sw edbank. 1/ Siffrorna från vår förra prognos i oktober 2012 finns inom parentes. 2/ Bidrag till BNP-tillväxten / 2013 P 1/ 2014 P 1/ 7

8 Nycketal 1/ P 2014P Sverige Sverige: Nyckeltal Real BNP (kalenderkorrigerad) 3,7 1,2 1,6 2,7 Industriproduktion 6,7-3,2-1,8 3,7 KPI, årsgenomsnitt 3,0 0,9 0,3 1,8 KPI, dec-dec 2,3-0,1 0,9 2,3 KPIF, årsgenomsnitt 2/ 1,4 1,0 1,1 1,5 KPIF, dec-dec 2/ 0,5 1,0 1,2 1,5 Arbetskraften 1,4 0,8 0,7 0,4 Arbetslöshet, % av arbetskraften 7,8 8,0 8,3 8,2 Antalet sysselsatta 2,3 0,6 0,4 0,4 Nominella timlöner, totalt 2,4 2,9 2,9 3,0 Nominella timlöner, industri 2,5 3,9 2,8 2,9 Hushållens sparkvot, % av disponibelinkomsten 10,2 11,4 11,1 10,1 Real disponibelinkomst 3,5 2,5 2,6 1,8 Bytesbalans, % av BNP 7,3 7,0 6,5 6,1 Finansiellt sparande i offentlig sektor, % av BNP 0,0-0,7-1,1-1,0 Offentliga sektorns skuld (Maastricht), % av BNP 38,4 38,2 38,7 38,0 Källor: SCB och Sw edbank 1/ Å rlig pro centuell fö rändring o m inte annat anges 2/ Ko nsumentprisindex med fasta ränto r 8

9 Sverige Ränte- och valutaantagande Utfall Prognos apr 30 jun 31 dec 30 jun 31 dec Räntor Svensk reporänta 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,25 1,75 10 årig statsobligationsränta 1,66 2,05 2,50 3,15 3,30 Valutor EUR/SEK 8,35 8,20 8,15 8,30 8,30 USD/SEK 6,42 6,40 6,60 6,90 6,65 KIX (SEK) 101,0 100,7 101,2 103,9 103,3 Källor: Reuters Ecow in och Sw edbank 9

10 Sverige Bidrag till tillväxten (procentenheter) Offentlig konsumtion Nettoexport Lager 0 Investeringar -2-4 Hushållens konsumtion BNP Källor: SCB och Swedbank. 10

11 Sverige Sysselsättningsgraden (% av befolkningen, år, 4k ma) 82,0 80,0 78,0 76,0 74,0 72,0 70,0 68, Sverige Norge Holland Tyskland Danmark Österrike Finland Storbritannien Frankrike Källa: Eurostat 11

12 Sverige Hushållens balansräkning (% av disponibelinkomsten) 250% 200% 150% Finansiell nettoförmögehetskvot Skuldkvot 100% 50% Förmögenhetskvot, exkl. bostadsrätter och kollektivt försäkringssparande 0% Källa: SCB 12

13 Sverige Inflation, reporäntan och växelkursen 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan KPI (årl.) KPIF (årl.) Repo-ränta Kronan (KIX, hs) Källor: Riksbanken, SCB och Swedbank. 13

14 Sverige Utgifter och antal personer inom välfärdsprogram 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2, Ohälsa - utgifter (% av BNP) Arbetsmarknads -program (% av BNP) 1,5 1,0 200 Arbetsmarknads -program ('000; hs) 0,5 0, Sjuk- och aktivititetsersättning ('000; hs) Källor: SCB, NIER och Försäkringskassan. 14

15 Estonia Swedbank's GDP forecast Changes in volume, % 2011 Household consumption (4.5) 3.5 (3.5) 3.9 (4.1) General government consumption (3.0) 1.3 (1.3) 1.5 (2.0) Gross fixed capital formation (22.9) 4.8 (1.7) 6.3 (2.7) Changes in inventories* (-0.2) 1.1 (-1.5) 0.0 (0.1) Exports of goods and services (5.8) 4.7 (4.9) 6.2 (6.2) Imports of goods and services (10.4) 6.1 (6.2) 6.2 (4.9) GDP (3.0) 3.3 (3.1) 4.2 (4.5) Domestic demand (excl. inventories)* (6.6) 3.4 (2.8) 4.1 (3.3) Net export* (-3.8) -1.2 (-1.2) 0.0 (1.3) Sources: Statistics Estonia and Sw edbank projections Our previous forecast is given in parentheses *contribution to GDP growth f 2014f 15

16 Estonia Key economic indicators, f 2014f Real GDP, % Nominal GDP, billion euros Consumer prices (average) Unemployment rate, % Real gross monthly w age Exports of goods and services (nominal) Imports of goods and services (nominal) Balance of goods and services, % of GDP Current account balance, % of GDP Current and capital account balance, % of GDP FDI inflow, % of GDP Gross external debt, % of GDP General government budget balance, % of GDP General government debt, % of GDP Sources: Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia and Sw edbank projections 16

17 Estonia Contributions to GDP growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Inventories Net exports Investments Government Households GDP -20% -25% f 2014f Sources: Statistics Estonia, Swedbank forecast 17

18 Estonia Labour market indicators 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Employment, yoy growth Unemployment rate -5% -10% -15% Source: SE 18

19 Estonia Contributions to investment growth, pp Households Government Financial corp. Enterprises Total growth, % Source: BoE 19

20 Estonia Contributions to CPI annual growth 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Other Housing Transport Food CPI -2% -4% Source: SE 20

21 Latvia Latvia: Key Economic Indicators, / f 2014f Real GDP Real GDP, sw da Nominal GDP, billion euro Consumer prices Unemployment rate, % 2/ Real net monthly w age Exports of goods and services (nominal) Imports of goods and services (nominal) Balance of goods and services, % of GDP Current account balance, % of GDP Current and capital account balance, % of GDP FDI inflow, % of GDP Gross external debt, % of GDP General government budget balance, % of GDP General government debt, % of GDP Sources: CSBL and Sw edbank. 1/ Annual percentage growth, unless otherwise stated. 2/ According to Labour f orce Surv ey. 3/ According to Maastricht criterion. 21

22 Swedbank's GDP forecast Latvia Changes in v olume, % 2011 Household consumption (5.2) 4.1 (3.8) 4.5 (4.5) Government consumption (-4.0) 1.6 (1.1) 2.0 (0.9) Gross fixed capital formation (12.1) 9.0 (9.0) 11.0 (11.0) Inventories 2/ (-1.8) 1.8 (0.5) 0.3 (0.4) Exports of goods and services (6.6) 4.5 (4.0) 6.5 (6.4) Imports of goods and services (3.8) 8.6 (5.9) 8.0 (8.0) GDP (5.4) 4.3 (4.1) 5.0 (5.0) Domestic demand 2/ (6.0) 5.4 (5.2) 6.4 (6.3) Net exports 2/ (1.2) -3.0 (-1.6) -1.7 (-1.7) Sources: CSBL and Sw edbank. 1/ Our January 2013 f orecast is giv en in parentheses. 2/ Contribution to GDP growth. Domestic demand is net of inv entoriies f f 1 22

23 Latvia Annual consumer price inflation and output gap, % Output gap 10 Headline inflation Core inflation (excl.energy and unprocessed food) Inflation at constant tax rates Sources: Eurostat, EC (AMECO). 23

24 Latvia Annual growth of GDP and its components and economic sentiment GDP, % Domestic demand (incl. inventories), % 0 90 Exports, % Economic sentiment, points (rs) f 2014f 60 Source: CSBL. 24

25 Latvia Contribution to annual growth of nonfinancial investment (current prices), percentage points Other Building and structures Machinery and equipment 0 0 Total growth, % Real average interest rates for corporates, % (rs)* * New loans in EUR, CPI deflated (ex-post) Source: CSBL. 25

26 Latvia Exports, manufacturing and cost competiveness (2007=100, sa) Export volumes Manufacturing volumes Real unit labour costs (reversed rs, i.e., a rise is a gain in competitiveness) Sources: Reuters EcoWin, CSBL 26

27 Lithuania Key Economic Indicators, / f 2014f Real GDP Nominal GDP, billion euro Consumer prices Unemployment rate, % 2/ Real net monthly w age Exports of goods and services (nominal) Imports of goods and services (nominal) Balance of goods and services, % of GDP Current account balance, % of GDP Current and capital account balance, % of GDP FDI inflow, % of GDP Gross external debt, % of GDP General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ General government debt, % of GDP Sources: Statistics Lithuania and Sw edbank. 1/ Annual percentage growth, unless otherwise stated. 2/ According to Labour f orce surv ey. 3/ According to Maastricht criterion. 27

28 Lithuania Swedbank's GDP forecast Changes in v olume, % e 2013f f 1 Household consumption (4.0) 3.3 (3.0) 3.8 (3.5) Government consumption (0.0) 1.0 (1.0) 1.5 (2.0) Gross fixed capital formation (3.0) 8.0 (10.0) 8.0 (8.0) Inventories 2/ (-1.0) 0.8 (0.3) 0.4 (-0.3) Export of goods and services (6.5) 4.0 (4.0) 6.5 (6.5) Import of goods and services (5.0) 5.0 (4.5) 7.5 (6.5) GDP (3.3) 4.0 (4.0) 4.0 (4.0) Domestic demand (excl. inventories) 2/ (3.1) 3.8 (4.1) 4.2 (4.2) Net exports 2/ (1.2) -0.6 (-0.3) -0.5 (0.1) Sources: Statistics Lithuania and Sw edbank. 1/ Our January 2013 f orecast is giv en in parentheses. 2/ Contribution to GDP growth. Domestic demand is net of inv entories. 28

29 Lithuania Contributions to GDP growth, pp 8,0 6,0 5,9 Net export 4,0 3,6 4,0 4,0 Stockbuilding 2,0 1,5 Investment (excl. inventories) Government consumption 0,0 Household consumption -2,0 GDP growth -4, f 2014f Sources: Statistics Lithuania and Swedbank. 29

30 Lithuania Average annual inflation and Maastricht criterion 4,5% Forecast 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% Maastricht criterion Average annual inflation 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% Source: Eurostat, Swedbank 30

31 Lithuania Domestic credit growth, yoy, % Non-financial corporations Households Source: Bank of Lithuania 31

32 Lithuania Registered unemployment and vacancies 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% * 2012* Registered unemployment, % Registered vacancies thous. (rs) * the number of working age population is updated according to census results Source: Lithuanian Labour exchange 32

33 Lithuania Conditional net wage growth in 2014, % 8,0% 7,5% 7,6% 7,0% 6,5% 6,6% 6,0% 5,9% 5,5% 5,3% 5,0% Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 470 Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 625 Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 780 Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 1000 Source: Swedbank 33

34 Contact information Economic Research Department Sweden Cecilia Hermansson cecilia.hermansson@swedbank.se Group Chief Economist Chief Economist, Sweden Magnus Alvesson magnus.alvesson@swedbank.se Head of Economic Forecasting Jörgen Kennemar jorgen.kennemar@swedbank.se Senior Economist Anna Ibegbulem anna.ibegbulem@swedbank.se Assistant Estonia Kristjan Tamla kristjan.tamla@swedbank.ee Acting Chief Economist, Estonia Teele Reivik teele.reivik@swedbank.ee Economist Latvia Mārtiņš Kazāks martins.kazaks@swedbank.lv Deputy Group Chief Economist Chief Economist, Latvia Lija Strašuna lija.strasuna@swedbank.lv Senior Economist Kristilla Skrūzkalne kristilla.skruzkalne@swedbank.lv Economist Lithuania Nerijus Mačiulis nerijus.maciulis@swedbank.lt Chief Economist, Lithuania Vaiva Šečkutė vaiva.seckute@swedbank.lt Senior Economist Laura Galdikienė laura.galdikiene@swedbank.lt Economist 34

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