Energirenovering av flerbostadshus Lönsamma renoveringspaket Linnéseminarie 11 december 2014 Linnéuniversitetet, Växjö
Global primärenergianvändning 1980-2009 och trender i utveckling till 2035 enligt internationella energimyndigheten (IEA)* Source: International Energy Agency, 2011. World Energy Outlook 2011 *Den bedömda utvecklingen inbegriper nya policyscenarier i vilka länderna ökar sina åtaganden för att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser
Energirenovering Optimera 1. Först enskild åtgärd 2. Sedan renoveringspaket
Skilj på samhällsekonomisk och företagsekonomisk kalkyl
Vilka är de viktiga parametrarna i en lönsamhetsbedömning av en åtgärd? Livslängd åtgärd Minskad energianvändning pga. åtgärd över åtgärdens hela livslängd Minskad energikostnad pga. åtgärd över åtgärdens hela livslängd Prisutveckling för energi som el och fjärrvärme Förändrade drift och underhållskostnader över åtgärdens hela livslängd Kalkylränta Investeringskostnad åtgärd
Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP4.5: Kraftfull klimatpolitik, lägre energiintensitet, skogsplantering Adapted from SMHI: http://data.smhi.se/met/climate/time_series/html/rcp/lan/rcp45/dia_big/t_ar_7_rcp45_y.png
Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP 8.5: Ingen tillkommande klimatpolitik, hög energiintensitet, långsam teknikutvecklingen energieffektivitet, stort beroende av fossila bränslen Adapted from SMHI: http://data.smhi.se/met/climate/time_series/html/rcp/lan/rcp85/dia_big/t_ar_7_rcp85_y.png
Elproduktion med åtföljande primärenergianvändning inom EU27 år 2010 (TWh) Primary energy use Coal 2468 35%* Electricity production Oil (282) Gas 1726 33%* 44%* 862 758 Coal Oil (86) Gas 917 Nuclear Nuclear Hydro (366) Bioenergy Other renewables (233) 2779 585 33%* 24%* 366 Hydro Bioenergy (142) Wind (149) Others (29) * Electricity production/primary energy use Source: World Energy Outlook 2012.
Elproduktion inom EU från 2000 till 2013 och trend till 2050 Källa: European Commission, 2013
Miljöskattscenarier Ingen skatt: 2008 års Svenska bränslekostnader Svensk skatt: 2008 år bränslekostnader plus energi- och miljöskatter inkluderat förmåner för grön el om 12.5/MWh elect Social kostnad -550ppm: 2008 års fossilbränslepriser utan skatter plus en kolskadekostnad om $30/t CO 2 (Stern et al., 2006) Social kostnad -BAU: 2008 års fossilbränslepriser utan skatter plus en kolskadekostnad om $85/t CO 2 (Stern et al., 2006)
Electricity production cost of fuel-based standalone plants 120 No tax Swedish tax 550ppm BAU Standalone electricity production cost ( /MWh) 100 80 60 40 20 0 CST BST BIGCC Technology CST coal steam turbine BST biomass steam turbine BIGCC biomass-integrated gasification combined cycle Adapted from: Truong N.L. and Gustavsson L. 2013. Integrated biomassbased production of district heat, electricity, motor fuels and pellets of different scales. Applied Energy 104:623-632
Löpande energipriser i Sverige inklusive skatt, 1970 2009 Öre/kWh 180 160 140 120 100 80 Electric heating, domestic Gas oil Fossil gas, residential District heating Forest fuels 60 40 20 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Källa: Energimyndigheten. Energiläget 2010, 2012. 12
0,2 Real price for household in Sweden including energy tax and VAT, Euro/kWh (Swedish Energy Agency, 2011) 0,18 Euro/kWh 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 Annual average increase of electricity real price: 3.7% R² = 0,9249 R² = 0,9399 Annual average increase of DH real price: 1.9% Electricity District Heating 0,04 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 The year Ref.: Swedish Energy Agency, Energy in Sweden facts and figures, 2011
Staten kan låna till negativ realränta under 10 år STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Om Riksgäldsdirektören Bo Lundgren idag skulle låna upp pengar för statens räkning under tio år så skulle han bara behöva betala 1,5 procent i ränta per år. Om vi antar att Riksbanken uppnår inflationsmålet på 2 procent under perioden, då lånar svenska staten till en negativ realränta på 0,5 procent i tio år. Peter Norman vid en utfrågning i riksdagens finansutskott på torsdagen: Källa SvD 15 december 2011 kl 17:42
Olika scenarier Sustainability: 1% discount rate 3% annul energy price increase Intermediate: 3% discount rate 2% annul energy price increase BAU: 5% discount rate 1% Energy price increase Potential lifetime of measures after renovation: 40, 50, 60 years
Klimat ort och år Climate information for the City of Växjö (Source: Meteonorm) Average data between 1996-2005)
Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP4.5: Kraftfull klimatpolitik, lägre energiintensitet, skogsplantering Adapted from SMHI: http://data.smhi.se/met/climate/time_series/html/rcp/lan/rcp45/dia_big/t_ar_7_rcp45_y.png
Förändring av årsmedeltemperaturen - Kronobergs län Klimatscenario RCP 8.5: Ingen tillkommande klimatpolitik, hög energiintensitet, långsam teknikutvecklingen energieffektivitet, stort beroende av fossila bränslen Adapted from SMHI: http://data.smhi.se/met/climate/time_series/html/rcp/lan/rcp85/dia_big/t_ar_7_rcp85_y.png
Economic calculation Energy efficiency measures costs (Renovation cost) Ref. Wikells, Sektionsfakta - ROT, 2011/2012
The DH energy price, /kwh 0,09 0,08 0,07 0,06 0,05 0,04 Price calculation of energy for space heating R² = 0,9241 0,03 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 The year Ref.: Swedish Energy Agency, Energy in Sweden facts and figures, 2011 Real DH price (incl. energy tax and VAT), Swedish Energy Agency, 2011 DH energy price, Växjö energy supplier tariff (VEAB, 2012) Ref. VEAB, Energy Växjö, www.veab.se, 2012
Hur påverkar energihushållning i byggnader fjärrvärmeproduktion Avspeglar fjärrvärmepris verklig kostnadsvariation av fjärrvärmeproduktionen? District heat capacity (MW) Building heat demand (kw) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 45 MW Wood powder Boiler 66 MW Wood chips Boiler 69 MW heat CHP-BST 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day savings from Wood powder boiler savings from Wood chip boiler Before energy efficiency measures After energy efficiency measures savings from CHP-BST unit savings from Wood chip boiler 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day
Optimering av enskild åtgärd Marginal net present value of saved energy EQUAL TO Marginal investment cost
Case-study building Multi-story concrete-frame residential building of 1960s Total area (m 2 ) of the elements of building envelope Building elements on each façade Windows and the glass share of door West facade 7.5 12 Basement walls (above the ground level) Basement walls (below the ground level) Exterior walls of facades 107 East facade 6.2 18 107 110 North facade 55 22 220 South facade 127 38 160 Basement and attic slab 400 18 apartments Total ground floor area of the building = 400 m 2 Total heated floor = 1430 m 2 Total ventilated volume = 3710 m 3 Sustainable Built Environment Research www.lnu.se/sber Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Initial state of the building The characteristics of building envelope elements The elements Components U Value Area Attic floor Concrete slab: 200 mm Mineral wool: 150mm 0.248 W/m 2 K 400 m 2 East / West exterior walls of the facade Concrete wall: 140 mm Mineral wool: 100 mm Brick façade: 120 mm 0.339 W/m 2 K 214 m 2 South / North exterior walls of the facade Lightweight Concrete: 70 mm Mineral wool: 100 mm Brick façade: 120 mm 0.290 W/m 2 K 390 m 2 Basement walls Concrete slab: 300 mm Mineral wool: 50 mm 0.63 W/m 2 K 200 m 2 Windows /Doors 2.9 / 3.0 W/m 2 Total share of glass: 196 m 2 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Energy efficiency measures for the elements of building fabric Building fabric elements Initial U value (W/m 2 K) Energy efficiency measures The range of considered thicknesses(mm) for extra insulation and U values (W/m 2 K) for new windows Exterior walls of the façade 0.307 Extra mineral wool panels ( value = 0.034W/mK) 45 to 510 Basement exterior walls 0.626 Attic floor 0.248 Windows 2.9 Extra insulation of EPS panel ( value = 0.039W/mK) Extra mineral wool ( value = 0.037W/mK) Replacing the existing windows by the new windows with lower U value 70 to 300 50 to 500 1.2 to 0.6 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Contribution of extra insulation thickness of opaque elements and improved windows to reduced final energy for space heating Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Energy efficiency measures Different thicknesses, improved U value, investment cost and marginal investment cost of extra insulation on exterior walls Extra mineral wool panels with air gap and new cladding consideration, On exterior wall Thicknesses of extra insulation (mm) Final energy for space heating (kwh/m 2 /year) Saved energy for space heating (kwh/m 2 /year) Marginal saved energy for space heating (kwh/year) Investment cost ( ) 45 89.84 7.66 3218 87 000 70 87.59 9.91 2345 88 400 1400 95 85.95 11.55 1759 89 500 1100 120 84.72 12.78 1387 90 400 900 145 83.75 13.75 1115 91 600 1200 170 82.97 14.53 930 92 700 1100 195 82.32 15.18 744 94 100 1400 215 81.80 15.7 572 95 600 1500 240 81.40 16.1 586 97 500 1900 265 80.99 16.51 500 99 300 1800 290 80.64 16.86 529 100 900 1600 340 80.27 17.23 558 102 900 2000 410 79.88 17.62 429 106 300 3400 Sustainable Built Environment Research www.lnu.se/sber 510 79.58 17.92 110 900 4600 Marginal investment ( )
Insulation of exterior walls Marginal Net present value of saved energy Thickness of extra insulation (mm) Marginal NPV of saved energy cost ( ), For discount rate of 3% and energy price increase of 2% 40 years lifespan 50 years lifespan 60 years lifespan 45 70 7 000 8 300 9 500 95 5 000 6 000 6 900 120 3 800 4 600 5 200 145 3 000 3 600 4 100 170 2 400 2 900 3 300 195 2 000 2 400 2 800 215 1 500 1 800 2 100 240 1 400 1 600 1 900 265 1 300 1 500 1 700 290 1 100 1 300 1 500 340 1 100 1 400 1 600 410 1 100 1 300 1 500 510 600 700 800 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Insulation exterior walls: Marginal NPV of saved energy MINUS marginal investment cost Thickness of extra insulation (mm) Marginal cost difference: discount rate of 3% and energy price increase of 2% 40 years lifespan 50 years lifespan 60 years lifespan 45 70 5560 6920 8140 95 3940 4920 5800 120 2920 3670 4340 145 1800 2380 2910 170 1330 1800 2230 195 610 1000 1350 215 210 290 550 240 350 290 50 265 530 280 60 290 500 280 80 340 860 630 430 410 2310 2100 1910 510 4020 3900 3800 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Extra insulation on exterior walls Optimum Extra insulation thickness (mm) Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Marginal cost difference of exterior wall insulation for different lifespans, considering sustainability scenarios Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Marginal cost difference of exterior wall insulation, for 50 years lifespan for the intermediate, BAU and sustainability scenarios Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
Optimum measures and their corresponding U value of the elements for different lifespans and economic scenarios (same results in the form of bar charts ) Note 1: Numbers on top of the main bars are element s U-Values (W/m 2 K) for 50 years lifespan Note 2: Error bars show the lifespans of 40 and 60 years Extra insulation thickness (mm) 500 400 300 200 100 0.114 0.097 0.068 0.203 0.155 0.121 0.106 0.083 0.057 BAU Intermediate Sustainability 0 BBR criteria for U-Value Exterior walls Basement walls Attic floor 0.18 0.13 Passive house criteria for U-Value 0.10 0.08 Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L., Cost-optimum analysis of building fabric renovation in a Swedish multi-story residential building, Energy and buildings 84 (2014)
The cost-effectiveness of building envelope renovation packages: Kostnad investering nuvärdet av sparad energi Kostnad investering / nuvärdet av sparad energi 1
Cost-effectiveness of single elements renovation (No need for renovation) 3,50 Cost effectiveness of single elements refurbishment (No need for refurbishment) 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 Sustainability Intermediate BAU 1,00 0,50 0,00 Basement walls Attic floor Windows Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the cost effectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Costeffective Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Cost-effectiveness of single elements renovation (Need for renovation) 3,50 Cost effectiveness of single elements refurbishment (need for renovation) 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 Sustainability Intermediate BAU 0,00 Basement walls Attic floor Windows Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the cost effectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Renovation packages based on cost-effectivenss of single measure Packages Energy efficiency measures Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Renovation of basement walls + attic floor Renovation of basement walls + attic floor + windows Renovation of basement walls + attic floor + windows + exterior walls Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Cost-effectiveness of renovation packages (No need for renovation) 3,00 Cost effectiveness of refurbishment packages (No need for refurbishment) 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Basement wall + Attic Basement wall + Attic + Windows Basement wall + Attic + Windows + Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the cost effectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Sustainability Intermediate BAU Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Cost-effectiveness of renovation packages (Need for renovation) 2,50 Cost effectiveness of refurbishment packages (need for renovation) 2,00 1,50 Sustainability 1,00 Intermediate 0,50 BAU 0,00 Basement wall + Attic Basement wall + Attic + Windows Basement wall + Attic + Windows + Exterior walls Main bars show the cost effectiveness for 50 years lifespan. Error bars represent the costeffectiveness for 40 and 60 years lifespans. Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
Adapted from: Bonakdar, F., Gustavsson, L., Dodoo, A. (2014), Costeffectiveness analysis of building envelope refurbishment for a Swedish residential building, Manuscript
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