Utmaningar och Möjligheter med storskalig produktion av bioenergi i tropiska länder ENERGITINGET Älvsjömässan 12e mars 2008 Johan Rockström Professor, Director Stockholm Environment Institute & 1
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Ett systemperspektiv på etanolproduktion en polariserad debatt Energibalans Miljökonsekvenser Konkurrens mat-energi Sociala konsekvenser Långsiktigt social-ekologisk hållbarhet I klimatpanikens spår förvandlas stora områden i Indonesien och Brasilien till etanolodlingar. Skog röjs för att ge plats för planteringar av mat som förvandlas till biobränsle. Denna lösning på transportproblemet framstår alltmer som en återvändsgränd. 3 Niklas Ekdal, DN 20e nov 2007
Global Energy Mix Global Energy consumption ~470 EJ/yr (6Xsince WW2) Energy demand > 50 % to 700 EJ by 2030 Renewable Energy ~13 % (62 EJ) in 2004 Modern Bioenergy ~2 % (8 EJ) Biodiesel 0.28 EJ (7.2 Mt, 2006) Ethanol 0.67 EJ (40 billion litres, 2006) World Energy Outlook 2006 transport biofuels expected to reach 4 EJ by 2030 (12 % growth rate 2015, 7 % growth rate 2030) 4
Whatever scenario materialises, bio-energy is expected to play a substantial role in the energy mix in 2030, providing around 70 EJ per year compared to 49 EJ in 2004; for modern bio-energy, expectations range from 15 18 EJ compared to 8 EJ in 2004. This requires substantial amounts of biomass. Louise Fresco, 2007 5
Sub-Saharan Africa energy consumption Excluding South Africa (2001) Including South Africa Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004 6
Energibalans Pimentel & Patzek 2005 (29 % deficit) Versus Shapouri 2004 et al. (34 % positiv) 7
Pimentel & Patzek 2005 (29 % deficit) Versus Shapouri 2004 et al. (34 % positiv) 8
GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel 9
Food, Feed, Fuel - Maize for Ethanol 7 % of total maize production 2006 - Price effects complex - Higher prices potentially an advantage for Sub- Saharan Africa 10
Miljöaspekter Markanvändning Biologisk mångfald/sytemförändringar Vattenresurser Biomassa hantering Näringsläckage 11
Miljöaspekter Växthusgaser Ethanol (Maize) Ethanol (Cellulosic) Ethanol (Sugarcane) GHG reductions relative to petrol/diese l vehicle Hectares required to fuel one car (ha/car) 14% 1.1 Farrell et al., 2006 88% 0.7 Farrell et al., 2006 91% 0.6 Macedo et al. 2004 Biodiesel (Soya) 40% 4.3 Hill et al., 2006 Biodiesel (Rape) 50% 2.0 IEA, 2005 12
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Det tropiska argumentet 14
Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios (EJ/year) (scenarios of different farming system mixes, animal production mixes) Potential in Oceania is 4-6 times projected primary energy use Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski March 2004 A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109. 15
Bio-etanol från Sugarcane + Sweet sorghum FAOSTAT 16
Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa 17
Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa 18
Water productivity win-win possibilities Save 1500 km 3 /yr ~ Present Consumptive Use in World Irrigation 19
Ekosystemtjänster Den välfärd ekosystem generar för oss människor 20
Currently transport biofuel production accounts for 1 % of the world s available arable land (IEA, 2006). This figure could rise to 2.5 3.8 % by 2030. 21 Foley et al. 2005
Critical transitions or regime shifts coral dominance algal dominance clear water turbid water grassland shrub-bushland 22
Data from A.Dai, 2005 23
A Regional Security Hot-Spo Vulnerability & Poverty Water Demand Climate Risk 24
Utmaningar, exemplet Rufiji One of the most striking changes in the River Basin is the flows to Ruaha National Park from 35 cumecs to 0 in the dry season The abstractin of water for irrigation is the main cause of these problems in the dry seasons. Not deforestation, pastoralism or decreased rainfall as previously thought. (IUCN, REMP report) 25
Integrated Assessment of biofuel potential and constraints Ecosystem functions, services, feedbacks Biofuel Project 26
Nord-Syd-Syd samarbete Möjligheter Biomassa i syd (tropisk) är genomsnittlig 5x mer produktiv Landsbyggdsutveckling Effektivare användning-begränsade global resursbas Energi säkerhet Export utveckling samtidigt stimuleras inrikesmarknad Förbättrad hälso (inomhus miljö, ersättning av bly, ) Luftkvalitet Industri utveckling Klimat minska CO2 utsläpp Nya möjligheter för bönder, kvinnor, entrepreneurer Regional utveckling Fred: genom minskning av oljas vikt i världsekonomin 27
Nord-Syd-Syd samarbete Risker Utarmning av ekosystem, system kollaps pga storskaliga monokulturer Marginalisering av fattiga småskaliga bönder Ny typ av sårbarhet för svaga ekonomier (beroende av global efterfrågan, subventioner) Osäker långsiktig hållbarhet Geopolitiskt spel 28
Conclusions Bioenergy can be produced in a sustainable way, providing net energy gains, having higher environmental benefits compared to fossil fuels, being competetive economically and available in large quantities without endangering food supply (Fresco, 2007) Key challenge ecosystem service tradeoffs and livelihoods Key opportunity in Africa livelihoods and Agricultural Productivity Biofuel projects need to be assessed in a broad systems perspective at a case-bycase basis 29
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