Aktiespararna September 15 2015
Port of Trelleborg important for Stena Line
Kim Ullman, CEO Ola Helgesson, CFO
Concordia Maritime is an international shipping company Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% *Estimates 2014
World wide competence Concordia Maritime Stena Teknik Stena Bulk Stena Weco Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool Northern Marine Management Developed over 100 new buildings Chartering and commercial operations of over 100 fartyg Technical Management of over 130 fartyg
World wide competence Concordia Maritime Stena Teknik Utvecklat över 100 nybyggen Stena Bulk Stena Weco Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool First call on new business: 0, 50 eller 100% Befraktning och kommersiell operation av över 100 fartyg Northern Marine Management Teknisk drift & bemanning av över 130 fartyg
Listing Founded in 1984 by the Stena Sphere which still owns about 53% Listed on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm Introduktions pris SEK 20 High SEK 58 Low SEK 7,80.. YTD 2015 - + ca 40% (SEK18) CCOR.SS
P-MAX 10
P-MAX dubbelt av allt +30% Antal fartyg 10 Längd 183 m Bredd 40 m Ton dödvikt 65,200 30% högre lastkapacitet
Suezmax 1 (+0,5+0,5)
IMOIIMAX 2
Our fleet now 15 ships P-MAX 6 lätta 4 tunga Stena Progress Stena Premium Stena Performance Stena Polaris Stena Provence Stena Paris Stena Perros Stena President Stena Primorsk Stena Penguin CPP CPP CPP CPP CPP CPP DPP DPP DPP DPP Spot Spot Spot Spot CVC CVC TC TC Spot Spot Stena Weco Stena Weco Stena Weco Stena Weco/EXM Stena Weco/EXM Stena Weco/EXM CM/Stena Bulk Pool CM/Stena Bulk Pool CM/Stena Bulk Pool CM/Stena Bulk Pool Suezmax (50%) (50%) Stena Supreme Unnamed vsl Unnamed vsl Crude Crude Crude Spot Spot Spot Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool IMOIIMAX Stena Image 4/15 Stena Important 10/15 CPP, Easy chemicals & edible oils Spot Spot Stena Weco Stena Weco
Q2 2015
Income per type, spot TCE USD/per day No. of vessels Q2 2015 Average income CM Q2 2014 6 months 2015 6 months 2014 Average income spot market* Product tankers 9 21,800 10,700 20,900 13,300 22,000 9,200 Q2 2015 Q2 2014 Suezmax 1,5 38,800 17,200 41,800 25,200 46,900 16,000 *Clarksons MR Clean
Q2 & 1H 2015 NB. Fartygsförsäljning Q2 2014 MSEK 80
EBITDA per quarter USD million Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 P-MAX, time charter 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.6 P-MAX, spot 7.5 6.0 4.4 2.2 0.5 3.7 IMOIIMAX 1.3 Panamax 11.9 1.1 Suezmax 3.2 3.7 1.9 13 0.6 2.1 Admin. and others 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.4 15 Total 11.8 9.9 5.3 2.8 13.2 8.0
Tillgångar Q2 2015 MSEK 4 105,8 Fartyg och fartyg under byggnation 88% MSEK 3 652,2 Likvida medel 4% MSEK 137,2 Övriga tillgångar 8% MSEK 315,9
Eget kapital och skulder Q2 2015 MSEK 4 105,3 Övriga skulder Räntebärande skulder 3% MSEK 110,0 55% MSEK 2 260,8 Eget kapital 42% MSEK 1 734,5
EBITDA och resultat 2005 2014 MSEK 400 Leverans av Stena Progress Leverans av Stena Premium Leverans av Stena Supreme Avyttring av två Panamax 300 200 Leverans av tre P-MAX 100 0-100 -200-300 -400 Leverans av Stena Paris Leverans av två P-MAX samt två Panamax Återleverans av två V-MAX Leverans av två P-MAX, inbefraktning av två Aframax Återleverans av två Aframax Inbefraktning av en Suezmax 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EBITDA Resultat före skatt
Utdelning och avkastning 2005-2014 SEK 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Utdelning i % av resultat efter skatt Totalavkastning 2013: 15% 2014: 10% 83% 92% 76% 50% 60% 56% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Resultat per aktie, SEK Utdelning per aktie, SEK Direktavkastning, % % 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8
Eget kapital och skulder 2005-2014 MSEK Per aktie 5 000 50 4 000 3 000 Eget kapital per aktie 31 dec: SEK 32,90 40 30 NAV per aktie 31 dec: SEK 25,80 2 000 1 000 Aktiens kurs 15 sept: SEK 18 20 10 Aktiens kurs 31 dec: SEK 12,90 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Räntebärande skulder, MSEK Övriga skulder och avsättningar, MSEK Eget kapital, MSEK Eget kapital per aktie, SEK
Aktiens utveckling mot index 2014 2015 SEK 25 20 CCOR-B 15 OSLO Shipping index OMX Stockholm 10 5 0 DATUM 2014-01-10 2014-01-24 2014-02-07 2014-02-21 2014-03-07 2014-03-21 2014-04-04 2014-04-17 2014-05-02 2014-05-16 2014-05-30 2014-06-13 2014-06-27 2014-07-11 2014-07-25 2014-08-08 2014-08-22 2014-09-05 2014-09-19 2014-10-03 2014-10-17 2014-10-31 2014-11-14 2014-11-28 2014-12-12 2014-12-23 2015-01-09 2015-01-23 2015-02-06 2015-02-20 2015-03-06 2015-03-20 2015-04-02 2015-04-17 2015-04-30 2015-05-15 2015-05-29 2015-06-12 2015-06-26 2015-07-10 2015-07-24 2015-08-07 2015-08-21 2015-09-04 Concordia B OMX Stockholm_PI Oslo Shipping Index
Marknad
Tanker market projections Other Weather Stock changes Unknowns/Jokers Geo political Trading pattern Refinery Changes Distances Supply growth Oil Consumption Base World GDP
Freight Dynamics Crude, ex Freight/bbl TCE Suezmax Nigeria/Rotterdam WS50 $1.20/bbl WS100 $2.40/bbl 2-5% of Cargo value $17.000/d $48.000/d Products, ex Freight/mt TCE MR Rott NY (gasoline) WS100 WS200 $15/mt $30/mt $5.000/d $23.000/d 4-8% of Cargo value
Crude tanker spot rates 2012-2015 (Aug) USD/Day 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 oversupply New delayed refineries China +75m barrels Comm. storage European ref.margins Asian Stockbuilding weather Lower bunker cost Libya returns European margins tops -US gasoline demand -New ref. India 20 000 10 000 0 2012-jan 2012-feb 2012-mar 2012-apr 2012-maj 2012-jun 2012-jul 2012-aug 2012-sep 2012-okt 2012-nov 2012-dec 2013-jan 2013-feb 2013-mar 2013-apr 2013-maj 2013-jun 2013-jul 2013-aug 2013-sep 2013-okt 2013-nov 2013-dec 2014-jan 2014-feb 2014-mar 2014-apr 2014-maj 2014-jun 2014-jul 2014-aug 2014-sep 2014-okt 2014-nov 2014-dec 2015-jan 2015-feb 2015-mar 2015-apr 2015-maj 2015-jun 2015-jul 2015-aug Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Crude tanker spot rates 2007-2015 (Aug) USD/Day 250 000 Inte sett sedan 2008 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 2007-feb 2007-apr 2007-jun 2007-aug 2007-okt 2007-dec 2008-feb 2008-apr 2008-jun 2008-aug 2008-okt 2008-dec 2009-feb 2009-apr 2009-jun 2009-aug 2009-okt 2009-dec 2010-feb 2010-apr 2010-jun 2010-aug 2010-okt 2010-dec 2011-feb 2011-apr 2011-jun 2011-aug 2011-okt 2011-dec 2012-feb 2012-apr 2012-jun 2012-aug 2012-okt 2012-dec 2013-feb 2013-apr 2013-jun 2013-aug 2013-okt 2013-dec 2014-feb 2014-apr 2014-jun 2014-aug 2014-okt 2014-dec 2015-feb 2015-apr 2015-jun 2015-aug Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Crude tanker spot rates 2000-2015 (Aug) USD/Day 250 000 200 000 2008 150 000 supercycle 100 000 Nu 50 000 0 2000-feb 2000-maj 2000-aug 2000-nov 2001-feb 2001-maj 2001-aug 2001-nov 2002-feb 2002-maj 2002-aug 2002-nov 2003-feb 2003-maj 2003-aug 2003-nov 2004-feb 2004-maj 2004-aug 2004-nov 2005-feb 2005-maj 2005-aug 2005-nov 2006-feb 2006-maj 2006-aug 2006-nov 2007-feb 2007-maj 2007-aug 2007-nov 2008-feb 2008-maj 2008-aug 2008-nov 2009-feb 2009-maj 2009-aug 2009-nov 2010-feb 2010-maj 2010-aug 2010-nov 2011-feb 2011-maj 2011-aug 2011-nov 2012-feb 2012-maj 2012-aug 2012-nov 2013-feb 2013-maj 2013-aug 2013-nov 2014-feb 2014-maj 2014-aug 2014-nov 2015-feb 2015-maj 2015-aug Average Aframax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day Average VLCC Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day
Suezmax Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 Sept 11th 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 Januari February March April May June July August September October November December Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2014 Average Suezmax Long Run Historical Earnings $/Day 2015 WAF-USAC 2015
MR Earnings 2014 vs 2015 USD/Day 30 000 25 000 20 000 Sept 11th 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec YR2014 YR2015 TC2 2015
Markets going forward
Growing Product Trade Increasing volumes, distances & triangulation opportunities Gasoline/UMS Naphtha Gasoil Jet Freight can act as a deterrent of the arb-sensitive (and therefore freight dependent) trades.
Bears vs Bulls and Wild Cards NEXT 12 MONTHS Product Tankers Compared to the past 12 months Bullish Factors Strong oil demand growth Continued influx of products driven by crude oversupply/low prices/high runs Growing exports from MEG/India Growing import demand in Australia, LAM, West Africa Growing China naphtha imports Wild Cards Q4/Q1 weather Refinery disruptions Oil prices/bunkers US crude exports will it hurt domestic refineries? Global Economy (e.g. China) Government intervention/currency fluctuations affecting demand growth Dirty ups offsetting LR2 deliveries Bearish Factors End of peak gasoline Low scrapping/slippage Lower refinery margins High freight rates capping arb sensitive trades Crude NBs taking products west More Russia product exports
Prospects 2015-2017 Suezmax Growth, % 2015 2016 2017 Demand* 3.0 3.0 3.0 Supply 1.7 3.7 3.0 Product tanker Growth, % 2015 2016 2017 Demand* 5.0 5.0 5.0 Supply (net) 5.2 5.2 3.5 *Volume + distance
Utsikter 2015-2017 % 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Suezmaxtanker 2015 2016 (2017) Produkttankers 2015 2016 (2017) Efterfrågan* Utbud *Volym + distanser
Concordia Maritime s market review and view.. Review; Good tanker markets in 2015 due low oil prices and very low growth of crude tankers An expected (and communicated) seasonal dip Aug/Oct but - Not as low and not as long View going forward, Specific - Q415/Q116 expected to bounce back to good markets across the board General - continued low oil prices will continue to drive world demand Geographical and strategic change in refinery situation still at force resulting in longer haul and cross trade Orderbook for product carriers in balance with demand growth Ie, Concordia Maritime has a continued postivie view of the product tanker market
Fartyg
Now 15 Ships - A balanced fleet and employement strategy P-MAX Suezmax IMOIIMAX Ship and cargo type Light products Heavy products Crude oil Light products, easy chemicals and vegetable oils (2 x 50% charter in with Stena Bulk) Market 6 ships on nische trade 3 ships on contract 2 TC 2 spot = 4 niche pool Spot - pooling Spot, niche contract and IMOIIMAX pooling Partner Stena Weco, Concordia Maritime/ Stena Bulk Pool Stena Sonangol Suezmax Pool Stena Weco
P-MAX focus on nisch, Australia/New Zeeland Closure of 4 refineries last 5 years 40-60 MR Imports per month 30-40 ports (product import) Newly renewed major oil Co. Highest markets in the East Cargo cap. Utilization ~90% 3 ships on contract to a major oil company (2 ships till Sep 2016, 1 to March 2016) Contract form - consequtive voyage charter market related
P-MAX focus on nische, West Africa WAF (Nigeria/Togo/Benin/Ivory Coast) - Fast growing continent (Africa) - Very bad/no refineries - Clean import ca 50 MR/month - P-MAX, full cargo (50.000) - Draft ports in WAF but STS - Cargo capacity utilization 95-100% - Premium earnings to standard MR trade
Stena Image s first succesful 6 voyages Voy 1 Load ports: 3 ports Indonesia Cargo: 3 diff grades palm oil/coconut oil Discharge ports: 3 ports Spain Voy 2 Load port: 1 port Italy Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Gizan (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Voy 3 Load port: Yanbu (R Sea/Saudi Arabia) Cargo: Chemicals Discharge port: Fujairah (UAE) Voy 4 Loadport: Jubail Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Voy 5 Loadport: Jebel Ali Saudi Arabia Cargo: Gasoline Discharge port: Fujairah Concordia Maritime s next IMOIIMAX comes in October Voy 6 Loadport: W.C India Cargo: Jet fuel/gasoline Discharge: Australia
Fokus framåt Fler/längre charterkontrakt Köp och försäljning av fartyg Fortsatt hög kvalitet i operationen Fler nischtrader Implementera IMOIIMAX Tvist kring Stena Primorsk Högre synlighet
So, 2015 marknaden har vänt! 72 MSEK vinst 1H Säsongsmässig nedgång i Q3 Viktiga niche trader Australia, New Zeeland and West Africa Högre EBIDTA potential i 2015 genom Niche trader Högre marknader generellt Två ytterligare Suezmax positioner Två IMO2MAX leveranser Full fokus och leverans på våra utmaningar!
Stena Image naming cermony