Knoxville Regional Travel Demand Model Upgrade Program. May 6, 2004

Knoxville Regional Travel Demand Model Upgrade Program May 6, 2004

Agenda TAZ Database External Trips Roadway Network Network Editing Tools Speed Capacity Estimation Signal Impedance Model Interface Trip Generation Trip Distribution Vehicle Occupancy & Time of Day Traffic Assignment Resolution of Calibration Issues & Final Validation Statistics Post-Processing

Expanded Study Area

Traffic Analysis Zones Total of 747 TAZ 717 Internal zones 30 External zones 45 Data Attributes Demographic data from Census 2000 Employment by 10 major industry classes University student enrollment & residence K-12 th grade enrollments

External Trips 30 External Stations 34,000 daily trips Five Interstates Average 25.2% through 21 Other Stations Average 1.2% through

External Trips (Cont d) 9001 9002 9003 9004 9005 9006 9007 9008 9009 9010 9011 9012 9013 9014 9015 9016 9017 9018 9019 9020 9021 9022 9023 9024 9025 9026 9027 9028 9029 9030 9001 0 5 9 402 0 27 2 9 0 89 0 0 2027 0 0 1715 0 8 0 0 11 3 6 76 1 138 0 0 0 11 9002 5 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 24 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 9003 9 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 9004 402 15 4 0 4 6 0 4 0 16 0 0 14 0 0 812 0 3 0 0 22 2 11 36 1 3991 0 0 0 0 9005 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 9006 27 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 112 0 0 0 0 9007 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 9008 9 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 9009 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9010 89 1 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 0 170 0 0 0 0 9011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 9013 2027 24 13 14 0 2 0 0 0 9 3 7 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 0 3 0 53 3 1 2612 0 0 0 4 9014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3827 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3827 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9016 1715 4 6 812 0 5 0 1 0 21 3 3 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 132 0 0 0 1 9017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9018 8 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 9019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9021 11 0 0 22 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 9022 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9023 6 0 0 11 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 53 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 9024 76 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 9025 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 9026 138 16 18 3991 2 112 3 7 0 170 0 1 2612 0 0 132 0 4 0 0 2 0 5 4 5 0 0 0 7 6 9027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 321 0 0 9028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 321 0 0 0 9029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 7 0 0 0 0 9030 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 4,541 64 52 5,344 6 154 6 21 0 312 6 12 4,842 3,827 3,827 2,776 0 20 0 0 42 6 88 126 8 7,235 321 321 12 23

Roadway Network Multi-scenario Network Master input network Over 140 attributes fields containing reference data Eighteen scenario-specific modeling fields to simplify the development and testing of different network assumptions Network editing tools Tools for developing and managing network scenarios Tools to simplify the coding of traffic signal attributes Output network Over 170 attribute fields with detailed outputs from the travel model and post-processors

Roadway Network Master Network Wealth of reference data All MINUTP model attributes Geographic & operational characteristics from TRIMS Observed speeds from congestion management studies Scenario-specific assumptions Number of lanes by direction Lane and shoulder widths Presence of median Posted speed Access control Area type Traffic signalization, priority, and synchronization

Roadway Network Output Networks Scenario geometric and operational assumptions Estimated free-flow speeds and capacities Loaded traffic volumes by direction and time-of-day Segment VMT & VHT by mode Average congested speeds by timeof-day Level of Service Peak 15 minute speeds and flow densities VOC, CO, NOx Emissions

Network Editing Tools Scenario Tools List Scenarios Add Scenario Delete Scenario Copy Projects

Network Editing Tools Signal Tools Update Signal Fields Add Signals Delete Signals Import Signals from GIS Layer

Speed & Capacity Estimation Free-flow speeds developed from extensive speed survey data Capacity estimation based on the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 methodologies Facility type = f (number of lanes, access control, presence of median, directionality, area type) Free-flow speed = f (facility type, posted speed) Capacity = f (facility type, number of signals, approach priority, signal synchronization, lane width, shoulder width, % heavy vehicle, directional distribution)

Speed & Capacity Estimation 1.00 Capacity Reduction Factor for Lateral Clearance 0.99 0.98 adjustment factor 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 75 72.5 70 67.5 65 62.5 60 57.5 55 free-flow speed 6 ft 3 ft 0 ft lateral clearance

Signal Impedance HCM 2000 procedure Delay/veh = uniform delay * PF + incremental delay + initial queue delay where, PF = progression factor = f (arrival type, g/c) 2 0.5C( 1 g C) uniform delay = 1 [ min( 1, v c) g C] Varying g/c s based on approach priority (higher, equal to, or lower than cross street 0.60, 0.50, 0.40 g/c) Varying arrival types based on signal synchronization (isolated signal vs. series of signals) Default cycle lengths = 90 sec.

Model Interface

Trip Generation Six internal auto trip purposes: HBW, HBS, HBU, HBO, NHBW & NHBO Trip production and attraction rates for auto mode developed from 2000 Knoxville Household Travel Behavior Study Trip production: Predictive variables determined by non-parametric correlation analysis Cross-classification table dimension developed by ANOVA Trip attraction: Multivariate regression techniques Special university trip generation components for UT based on 1999 IU travel behavior study (both dorm based and commuter) Special tourist trip generation for southern Sevier County

Trip Generation (Cont d) Trip Production Model Trip Purpose 1 st Predictor 2 nd Predictor Trip Rate HBW Workers/H.H. Vehicles/H.H. 1.21 HBS Students/H.H. None 0.61 HBU University Student/TAZ None 0.15 HBO Household Size Vehicles/H.H. 3.49 NHBW Workers/H.H. Household Income 0.80 NHBO Household Size Vehicles/H.H. 1.87 Total 7.42

Trip Generation (Cont d) Trip Attraction Model Trip Purpose Independent Variable Parameter HBW Total Employment 0.5085 Trip Purpose Independent Variable Households Parameter 3.8321 HBS K-12 Enrollment 1.7211 Retail Employment 1.5399 NHBO HBU University Enrollment 1.1488 Office Employment 0.6419 Population 0.6778 Gov t. Employment 0.3106 Retail Employment 2.6391 Labor Employment 1.5730 HBO Office Employment 0.3638 Industrial Employment 1.2840 Trucks Gov t. Employment 0.6607 Retail Employment 1.2060 Population 0.1758 Office Employment 0.5140 Retail Employment 0.6084 Auto Total Employment^0.5 22.8865 NHBW Office Employment 0.1244 Ex/In Households 0.2752 (Other) Gov t. Employment 0.1179 NHBW Total Employment 0.3567 Other Employment 0.1171 (Work)

Trip Distribution Six internal trip purposes (HBW, HBS, HBU, HBO, NHBW & NHBO) & E-I trips Friction Factors from 2000 Knoxville Household Travel Behavior Study (network skims of geocoded trip ends) Attractions balanced to productions Doubly-constrained gravity model Socioeconomic (or K) factors to help balance county-tocounty flows and other important interactions

46 48 44 Trip Distribution (Cont d) Friction Factor Calibration for Home-Based Work 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 Trip Length Frequency Distribution 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 Time BTLFD TLFD#5 TLFD#10 TLFD#15

Trip Distribution (Cont d) Feedback Loop for the Knoxville Model

Time of Day AM peak (7:00~9:00), PM peak (3:00~6:00), and Off-peak Factors for internal auto purposes from the 2000 Knoxville Household Travel Behavior Study Factors for other purposes from various sources TOD factors to split the 24-hr trip table into tables by TOD TOD factors by trip purpose Directional factors to convert trip tables in a productionattraction format to origin-destination tables Directional factors by trip purpose and by TOD

Time of Day (Cont d) Trips by Purpose by Hour 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 HBW HBK12 HBU HBO NHBW NHBO EI EE TRK

Time of Day (Cont d) Time of Day & Directional Factors AM PM OFF DAILY AM PM OFF DAILY HBW 27.5% 29.1% 43.4% 100.0% NHO 8.7% 24.8% 66.6% 100.0% p-a 26.6% 2.9% 23.1% 52.6% p-a 4.3% 12.4% 33.3% 50.0% a-p 0.9% 26.2% 20.3% 47.4% a-p 4.3% 12.4% 33.3% 50.0% HBS 49.2% 30.0% 20.8% 100.0% EI 7.8% 20.8% 71.4% 100.0% p-a 49.2% 0.6% 4.7% 54.5% p-a 1.8% 12.9% 35.0% 49.8% a-p 0.0% 29.4% 16.1% 45.5% a-p 6.0% 7.8% 36.4% 50.2% HBU 29.8% 19.6% 50.5% 100.0% EE 7.8% 20.8% 71.4% 100.0% p-a 29.8% 2.5% 22.5% 54.9% p-a 3.9% 10.4% 35.7% 50.0% a-p 0.0% 17.1% 28.0% 45.1% a-p 3.9% 10.4% 35.7% 50.0% HBO 14.7% 25.4% 60.0% 100.0% TRK 11.0% 15.0% 74.0% 100.0% p-a 11.8% 9.6% 26.7% 48.2% p-a 5.5% 7.5% 37.0% 50.0% a-p 2.8% 15.8% 33.2% 51.8% a-p 5.5% 7.5% 37.0% 50.0% NHW 16.0% 25.7% 58.3% 100.0% p-a 2.2% 21.5% 31.3% 55.0% ALL 15.9% 25.3% 58.8% 100.0% a-p 13.9% 4.2% 26.9% 45.0%

Mode Share Private Auto Mode Share by Purpose (from HH Survey) Mode Share HBW 98% HBS 73% HBU 78% HBO 98% NHBW 98% NHBO 96%

Vehicle Occupancy Vehicle Occupancy by Purpose by Time of Day (from HH Survey) AM PM OFF HBW 1.09 1.10 1.08 HBS 2.58 2.40 2.25 HBU 1.22 1.22 1.22 HBO 1.99 1.88 1.77 NHBW 1.09 1.16 1.20 NHBO 1.97 1.88 1.71

Traffic Assignment Time-of-day assignments (i.e., separate AM-peak, PM-peak & Offpeak assignments) Directional flows by time-of-day User equilibrium assignment by mode with trucks preloaded Calibrated volume-delay functions by functional class and signalization Roadway Class Volume Delay Parameters Alpha Beta Rural Interstate 8.0 4.5 Urban Interstate 0.40 2.7 Other Freeways 0.83 2.7 Signalized Unsignalized Alpha Beta Alpha Beta Rural Principal Arterials 0.7 6.0 2.0 6.0 Urban Minor Arterials 1.8 7.0 5.5 7.0 Rural Collectors 8.0 4.5 14.0 4.5 Other 3.0 6.0 12.0 6.0

Traffic Assignment (Cont d) Final Validated Assignment

Resolution of Calibration Issues Issue: Global Under-Loading Solution: ODOT Factors for Trip Under-reporting - from GPS validation of household travel surveys Trip Purpose Under-reporting Factor Home-Based Work 1.22 Home-Based School 1.41 Home-Based University 1.41 Home-Based Other 1.60 Non-Home Based Work 2.32 Non-Home Based Other 2.18

Resolution of Calibration Issues Issue: Southern Sevier County Under-Loading Solution: Special Tourist Trip Generation Data on Tourism from National Park Service & Sevier County Economic Development Council ITE Trip Generation Rates for Occupied Hotel Rooms (8.17/day)

Resolution of Calibration Issues Issue: I-40 East Over-Loading Solution: Special Morristown External Attractions Data on inter-county flows from CTPP journey to work data Convert externalinternal trip productions to HBW & HBO attractions

Resolution of Calibration Issues Issue: Over-Loading High Class Facilities & Under-Loading Low Class Facilities Solution: Calibrated Volume-Delay Function Parameters Knoxville Regional-Volume Delay Curves Speed Decay 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 V/C 8.0/4.5.40/2.7.83/2.7 0.7/6.0 1.8/7.0 8.0/4.5 3.0/6.0 2.0/6.0 5.5/7.0 14/4.5 12/6.0

Resolution of Calibration Issues Issue: Unbalanced Interactions between Area Types and with External Stations Solution: Socioeconomic (K) Factors Average K Factors

Final Validation Results All the MDOT error criteria were met Final Global Average Loading Error: -1.68% Final Global VMT Error: -0.15% Final Root Mean Square Error: 31.96%

Final Validation Results Model Performance by Volume Group Volume Range Average Counts Average Loading % RMSE % Error % Threshold VMT % Error 1,001 ~ 2,000 1,476 2,442 153.38 65.45 ± 100 46.05 2,001 ~ 3,000 2,461 3,357 101.28 36.39 ± 100 29.05 3,001 ~ 4,000 3,448 3,586 71.34 4.01 ± 50 0.13 4,001 ~ 5,000 4,483 4,887 69.35 9.02 ± 50 2.60 5,001 ~ 6,000 5,461 5,835 49.52 6.85 ± 25 4.28 6,001 ~ 8,000 7,033 7,040 45.94 0.10 ± 25-1.75 8,001 ~ 10,000 8,910 8,618 44.78-3.28 ± 25-0.31 10,001 ~ 15,000 12,107 11,061 33.08-8.63 ± 20-8.63 15,001 ~ 20,000 17,349 15,230 25.54-12.22 ± 20-9.11 20,001 ~ 25,000 22,361 20,357 21.86-8.96 ± 20-4.82 25,001 ~ 30,000 27,633 26,419 17.84-4.39 ± 15-2.12 30,001 ~ 40,000 33,890 33,025 13.51-2.55 ± 15-1.34 40,001 ~ 50,000 43,730 42,801 11.16-2.12 ± 15 1.16 50,001 ~ 60,000 57,730 59,847 17.53 3.67 ± 10 3.29 > 60,000 66,828 70,221 8.01 5.08 ± 10 2.58 ALL 11,531 11,337 31.96-1.68-0.15

Final Validation Results Model Performance by Functional Class Functional Classification Average Counts Average Loading % RMSE % Error VMT % Error Rural Interstate 44,246 45,928 11.51 3.80 2.95 Rural Prin. Arterial 16,395 16,497 21.61 0.63 1.14 Rural Minor Arterial 9,352 9,720 30.07 3.94 6.74 Rural Major Collector 4,322 4,941 63.44 14.31 14.32 Rural Minor Collector 3,545 3,821 70.60 7.78 1.73 Rural Local Roads 3,075 2,914 89.45-5.21-24.74 Urban Interstate 39,960 41,884 9.84 4.82 4.51 Urban Prin. Arterial 23,240 21,844 21.47-6.01-4.96 Urban Minor Arterial 10,336 9,458 41.53-8.50-10.10 Urban Collectors 7,123 6,360 54.65-10.71-10.87 Urban Local Roads 4,348 3,843 68.50-11.61-12.98 All 11,531 11,337 31.96-1.68-0.15

Final Validation Results Model Performance by Major Corridor Corridor Average Counts Average Loading % RMSE % Error VMT % Error I-40 48,552 51,729 11.47 6.54 4.56 I-75 44,374 44,199 10.06-0.39 1.82 I-275 28,023 31,200 12.62 11.34 12.39 I-640 25,645 25,473 12.63-0.67 0.98 I-81 36,804 38,708 7.37 5.17 4.47 I-140 18,365 18,509 9.77 0.79-1.97 Chapman Hwy 24,608 24,978 21.14 1.51 5.66 US129 37,999 33,540 18.29-11.73-12.20 SR66/US321 34,303 34,731 8.97 1.25 2.54 Pellissippi Pkwy 16,588 18,330 20.50 10.50 3.81 SR62 22,616 19,474 20.03-13.89-13.12

Final Validation Results Model Performance by Screenline, Area Type, & County Screenline Area Type County Category Avg Counts Avg Loading % RMSE % Error VMT % Error Knox County Line 15,530 15,388 20.54-0.91 0.62 Blount County Line 10,350 10,325 25.17-0.24-25.63 Knox & Blount C.L. 12,013 11,626 28.45-3.23-11.97 Knox-Blount Border 18,643 19,341 6.64 3.74 2.08 Major Employment District 13,469 12,632 36.05-6.21-5.91 Urban Areas 11,648 10,807 33.13-7.22-5.82 Suburban Areas 14,019 13,934 29.20-0.61-0.99 Rural Areas 10,442 11,020 29.36 5.54 5.33 Knox County 11,679 11,106 33.08-4.90-3.72 Blount County 9,597 8,678 42.76-9.57-6.98

Post-Processing POST_ALT Average Congested Speeds Level of Service Traffic Statistics Report AQ_PLuS Emissions by Roadway Segment County Total Emissions Report CAL_REP Calibration Statistics

POST_ALT: Average Speeds Average congested speeds by time of day were validated against observed speed data from Congestion Management Studies 32.77% RMSE for AM Speeds 33.69% RMSE for PM Speeds 27.98% RMSE for Off Peak Speeds

POST_ALT: Level of Service Level of Service based on Highway Capacity Manual 2000 criteria by facility type: Flow-Density for freeways, expressways, & multilane divided highways Percent time spent following & speed decay for rural two-lane highways Speed decay for urban streets

POST_ALT: Traffic Statistics Traffic statistics by functional class, area type, county, and corridor - including user-defined corridors: CLASS MILES VMT AUTO_VM TRUCK_VMVHT AUTO_VH TRUCK_VHAVGSPEED DELAYPTC VC User Corridor #1 113.55 5558630 4027241 1531389 99570 72089 27481 55.83 9808 11.0 0.72 User Corridor #2 52.76 2022129 1447251 574878 37548 26925 10623 53.85 2507 7.8 0.58 User Corridor #3 4.79 141908 124408 17500 2523 2212 311 56.24 412 16.3 0.82 User Corridor #4 20.17 511088 417142 93946 8536 6967 1569 59.88 931 10.9 0.5 User Corridor #5 7.73 297384 213151 84233 4842 3471 1371 61.42 265 6.0 0.5 User Corridor #6 21.56 364327 324035 40292 5785 5148 637 62.98 440 7.9 0.5 User Corridor #7 22.13 531549 492551 38998 11666 10827 839 45.56 1396 12.0 0.5 User Corridor #8 15.72 492116 391498 100619 10934 8707 2227 45.01 2284 20.9 0.64 User Corridor #9 21.55 745212 672106 73106 16134 14624 1510 46.19 1154 7.2 0.46 User Corridor #1 9.44 162084 132851 29232 2926 2401 525 55.39 227 7.7 0.46

AQ_PLuS: Link Emissions Link-Specific Emissions Volatile Organic Compounds Carbon Monoxide Oxides of Nitrogen in grams/day

AQ_PLuS: County Conformity Emissions summaries by county to facilitate conformity determinations Air Quality Conformity Analysis Report for Knoxville Region from MOBILE6 and the Knoxville Regional Travel Demand Model Mon Mar 29 02:08:59 2004 Year: 2000 Scenario: TestAQ 12748220 VMT in Knox County VOC CO NOx Scenario: 29.26 tons/day 326.91 tons/day 45.31 tons/day

Knoxville Transit Analysis Tool Regression Model Predicts riders per service hour for a route Using Population density Mean household income Average household workers per household vehicles Retail employment density of the area within a quarter mile of the route

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