Transportation Modeling Forum. December 14, 2011
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1 Transportation Modeling Forum December 14,
2 Forum Agenda Model Overview: Growth Forecast and Travel Demand Model Transportation Network Development Travel Demand Model Resources 2
3 Model Overview: Growth Forecast and Travel Demand Model Rick Curry 3
4 What is a Transportation Model? Mathematical Equations that Replicate Observed Human Travel Behavior Based on Survey Data Assumes Constant Behavior 4
5 What is the model used for? Transportation System Land Use and Demographics Transportation/ Land Use Policies Transportation Model System Demand Environmental Impact System Performance 5
6 4-Step Transportation Model Growth Forecast Traffic Census Highway Network Traffic Analysis Zones Travel Surveys Transit Network Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Trip Assignment Post-Processing Truck Trip Generation Truck Trip Distribution Air Quality 6
7 4-Step Transportation Model Growth Forecast Traffic Census Highway Network Traffic Analysis Zones Travel Surveys Transit Network Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Trip Assignment Post-Processing Truck Trip Generation Truck Trip Distribution Air Quality 7
8 Linking Growth Forecasts with RTPs Growth Forecast RTP Base Year Horizon Year Series Series Series Series Series Series update Series Series
9 Regional Results: Population, Jobs, Housing Millions 9 9
10 Regionwide Age Structure: 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2050 Male Female Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990, 2000, 2010; SANDAG, 2050 Regional Growth Forecast, February
11 4-Step Transportation Model Growth Forecast Traffic Census Highway Network Traffic Analysis Zones Travel Surveys Transit Network Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Trip Assignment Post-Processing Truck Trip Generation Truck Trip Distribution Air Quality 11
12 Traffic Analysis Zones 12
13 The Traditional 4-Step Transportation Model Growth Forecast Traffic Census Highway Network Traffic Analysis Zones Travel Surveys Transit Network Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Trip Assignment Post-Processing Truck Trip Generation Truck Trip Distribution Air Quality 13
14 Surveys Travel Behavior Surveys Inter-regional Intra-regional California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) Regional / On-board Transit Surveys Transit Passenger Counting Program Census / ACS / CTPP Cross-Border Surveys Parking Surveys Taxi Surveys Vehicle Occupancy and Classification Surveys Visitor Surveys Market Research Surveys 14
15 4-Step Transportation Model Growth Forecast Traffic Census Highway Network Traffic Analysis Zones Travel Surveys Transit Network Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Trip Assignment Post-Processing Truck Trip Generation Truck Trip Distribution Air Quality 15
16 Highway & Transit Networks 16
17 Highway Networks 17
18 Transit Routes and Stops 18
19 4-Step Transportation Model Growth Forecast Traffic Census Highway Network Traffic Analysis Zones Travel Surveys Transit Network Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Trip Assignment Post-Processing Truck Trip Generation Truck Trip Distribution Air Quality 19
20 Tracking Model Evolution 20
21 Changes for 2050 RTP Zones New boundaries for MGRA and TAZ Jurisdiction Network Review Updated for Base Year 2008 Cordons & POE forecasts Airport demand (AMAP) Traffic and transit boarding counts 21
22 Changes for 2050 RTP Costs Parking costs Transit fares and structure Auto operating costs based on RTAC Mode Choice Model FTA Newstarts update Highway Assignment Additional vehicle classes Stricter assignment convergence criteria 22
23 4D s Model Enhancements The 4D s Residential and employment Density Diversity of complimentary land uses Neighborhood form: Transit and pedestrian oriented Design Includes Distance to transit Accessibility to Destinations 23
24 4D Model Enhancements Trip Distribution Trip lengths are more likely to be shorter in dense and diverse areas Mode Choice Trip modes are more likely to shift to transit \ non-motorized in dense and diverse areas 24
25 Truck Model IE and EI EE II I = Internal E = External 25
26 Is the model output any good? 26
27 Validation Report Sensitivity Report Model Reports 27
28 Model Documentation Series 12 Model Documentation 2050 regional growth forecast 2050 regional travel demand model Related Publications 4D model development Truck model development 28
29 Model Transportation Networks Joaquin Ortega 29
30 SANDAG Transportation Model Dimensions Spatial 4,682 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) 12 external cordon zones 2,500 Transit Access Points (TAP) Network 34,000 Roadway Network Links 21,000 Roadway Network Nodes 10 Roadway Facility Types 30
31 Transportation Model Network 31
32 Transportation Network Data Review Timeline 6 Months Took Place in 2009 Attributes Number of Lanes Facility Type Posted Speed Intersection Controls Data Sources 2008 Base Year Aerial Photos EIRs and site plans Local General Plans / Circulation Elements Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP) 32
33 Observed Challenges Ongoing regional growth Land use & demographic forecast frequency Volume of links & nodes Staff time 33
34 Transportation Model Review Website Allows local agencies to review model network using a web-browser Simple navigation Controlled access 34
35 Transportation Model Review Website 35
36 Transportation Model Editing 36
37 Transportation Model Review Website 37
38 Total Scope 38
39 Results Very high participation rate Over 2,000 comments submitted Over 4,000 edits made Project Timeline: 6 months 39
40 Results Lanes Added or Removed -195 Freeway ramps -155 Prime arterial links -308 Major arterial links -504 Collector links -132 Local street links Intersection Edits -218 Traffic signals added -381 All way stops added -86 Directional stops removed Speed Limit Edits -1,591 Link changes of ± 5 mph -580 Link changes of ± 10 mph -160 Link changes of ± 15 mph 40
41 Benefits Streamlined calibration process Low cost of web tool development Increased rapport with jurisdictional staff Increased model mapping accuracy 41
42 Future Application Series 13 forecast Base Year 2010 Enhanced internal checks before soliciting feedback Future year networks 42
43 Travel Demand Model Resources Mike Calandra 43
44 Travel Demand Model Resources Model users and uses Model inputs Standard model output Customized model output Downloadable model data Model Documentation External data sources 44
45 Transportation Model Users Caltrans CARB SANDAG APCD City of San Diego Transportation Model MTS Local Jurisdictions NCTD Private Developers 45
46 Transportation Model Website 46
47 Model Input Growth Forecast Region-wide Forecast (DEFM) Land Use Plans And Policies Interregional Commute Model (IRCM) Growth Allocation Model (UDM) Transportation Model 47
48 Model Input Freeway Traffic Census 48
49 Model Input Local Traffic Census _data/transportation/adtv/index.asp 49
50 Model Input Local Traffic Census (Coming Soon) 50
51 Model Input Regional Traffic Count Database (Coming in 2013) A central repository and historical archive of all non-automated arterial traffic counts Interactive mapping application Currently under contract! 51
52 Model Input - Traffic Generators 52
53 Model Process 53
54 Standard Model Output Average Daily Traffic (ADT) 54
55 Standard Model Output Level of Service (LOS) 55
56 Standard Model Output Transit Flow 56
57 Standard Model Output Person Trip End Density 57
58 Standard Model Output Traffic Forecast Information Center 58
59 Standard Model Output Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) VMT is the key output metric from travel demand models as an input into Air Quality Analysis Calculations Link VMT = ( ADT * Length ) / 5280 Aggregated to regional figures 2008 Base Year 80,316, RC 118,309,850 59
60 Customized Model Output Traffic Distribution Analysis 60
61 Customized Model Output Travel Time Analysis 61
62 Customized Model Output Jurisdictional VMT Utilizing existing tools, cities can calculate their VMT for the purpose of conducting sustainable community strategy analyses City-wide Select Zone assignment Compressing trip tables GIS overlays Spread sheet output 62
63 Downloadable Model Output ftp://ftpx.sandag.org/sandag/pub/series 12/Final/ 63
64 External Data Sources Institute of Traffic Engineers (ITE) Traffic Management Data Dictionary (TMDD)
65 External Data Sources Transportation Research Board (TRB)
66 External Data Sources Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP)
67 External Data Sources Caltrans Description of Transportation Models X Statewide Travel Model X Travel Forecasting Guidelines X EMFAC Air Quality Model x 67
68 External Data Sources Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Planning team resource center X Traffic Analysis Toolbox (TAT) 68
69 External Data Sources Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Travel forecasting for Newstarts X National Transit Database 69
70 Forum Agenda Recap Model Overview: Growth Forecast and Travel Demand Model Transportation Network Development Travel Demand Model Resources Next Transportation Modeling Forum: June 13,
71 Open Discussion 71
72 Transportation Modeling Forum December 14,
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