a great change in our stewardship of the Earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided.

Exiting the Safe Operating Zone Planetary management will require considerable skill Crisis of Nature

Crisis of goverment too Trump Brexit Erdogan, Putin, Modi, Duterte

Thomas Sterner Chaire Développement durable - Environnement, énergie et société

2 simultanious crises: a Coincidence?

2 simultaneous crises: a Coincidence?

Mer plast än fisk i havet

COP 23 {21 25}

COP 23 {21 25} 1, Parisavtalets regelbok: 2.Talanoa: 3.Ambitionsnivå i klimatarbetet före 2020: 4.Handlingsplan för jämställdhet: 5.Plattform för ursprungsbefolkningar: 6.Långsiktig finansiering: 7.Jordbruk:

A huge solar installation in Les Mees, in the department of Alpes-de-Haute-Provence. France is predicted to miss both renewable and energy efficiency targets. Photograph: Jean- Paul Pelissier/Reuters http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/20/eu

Share of Wind in Denmark

Indias largest solar farm Kamuthi

Batteries, cars, efficiency

But still quite small

Technical progress everywhere

Happy if oil prices are low?

Fossil prices low BAD because: Stop renewables research and deployment Stop Efficiency investments Encourage waste, Stop insulating houses Encourage fertilizers, aluminium, gasguzzlers, sprawl Frighten solar investors So oil price fall means more to ALCOA than Paris

Fossil prices low good because: Keep oil and gas in the ground Dont build Xcel pipeline Dont develop heavy tarsands, Stop fracking and drilling Frighten investors with stranded assets

What do we need or hope for for the climate?

What do we need or hope for for the climate? Low producer prices AND High consumer prices TAX

Climate treaty needed...

Price of a scarce resource

Oil prices, and Various Climate policies

Tough climate policies?

CO2 prices

CO2 prices SWEDISH CARBON TAX

Tons CO2 / $ GDP 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 C/Y World C/Y US C/Y OECD C/Y UK C/Y Denmark C/Y Norway C/Y Sweden 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

CO2 per GDP indices 120 100 80 60 40 20 C/Y World C/Y Norway C/Y OECD C/Y US C/Y Denmark C/Y UK C/Y Sweden 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

CO2 prices EU GAS TAX

Price of gasoline Gasoline per capita Petrol prices Consumption/cap 500 450 400 350 300 ITALY UK AUSTRALIA CANADA USA 1600 1400 1200 1000 250 800 200 150 600 100 400 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 200 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Transport Fuel Use in OECD Gtons fuel (and ~C*(12/14)) Real UK prices US prices Fuel use 1,13 0,72 1,47-36% +30%

Paris: Succé pour la diplomatie francaise

Paris COP 21? RADICAL GOALS <2 C ------even 1,5 BUT No Carbon Price RELIANCE ON INDCS ---sufficiently binding?

INDC INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

COP 21 : 200 économistes pour un prix du C Tirole, Nordhaus, Weitzman All economists Would be effective When to deliver message, how to get there

Varför tjatar ekonomer om pris på CO2?

HETEROGENEOUS ABATEMENT COSTS MBI 2 polluters 20 t each. Total to be cut in ½. MC 1 = a 1 and MC 2 = 4a 2 1. Equal abatement of 10 units each costs 250$ (½ 10*10 + ½ 10*40) 2. Equal MC due to trading means firm one will sell 6 rights to firm 2. Firm 1 abates 16 and firm 2 abates 4. Cost is 160 $ (saving 36%) (½ 16*16 + ½ 4*16) 3. This can also be achieved by a tax of 16 Thomas Sterner Policy Instruments

Cost savings due to equal MC Equal abatement Efficient abatement Thomas Sterner Policy Instruments

Heterogeneous MC (2) Heterogeneity Saving by MBI 1 0 1.5 4% 2 ~11% 4 36% When are costs heterogeneous?? If Abatement takes time If firms with different scale or different business emit same pollutant 9 64% 99 ~96% Thomas Sterner Masters CTH 05 03

Koldioxidskatt, klimatbistånd och att Sverige skalar upp sina inköp och annullering av utsläppsrätter är de allra viktigaste åtgärderna. Skulle man slopa subventioner till fossila bränslen och genomföra en global koldioxidskatt så skulle klimatproblemet vara löst,

Renewable subsidies still growing

Changing forces of Lobbyism In Waxman Markey, fossil-fuel interests outspent environmental interests by 7-to-1 Californian environmental interests outspent fossil fuel interests by 3-to-1 in battling Proposition 23.

Budget Omfattande sponsorskap Adlebertska 1 M Sida, AFD, Microsoft, China CAERE Handelshögskolefonder.. UGOT, FRAM, BECC, Mistra Carbon Exit, EFD, CeCar, mfl

LOC Anne, Åsa, Thomas, Frida, Fredrik, Gunnar, Håkan, Jessica, Daniel, Carolyn Sverker Jagers, Anna Nordén,...FRT

Extras 2-3 förkonferenser. 2 För-kurser WEC