Energisystemet en framtidsutblick. Mikael Odenberger Dept. Space, Earth and Environment Div. Energy technology

Transkript

1 Energisystemet en framtidsutblick Mikael Odenberger Dept. Space, Earth and Environment Div. Energy technology

2 The future power system? Transport Wave power Hydropower Transmission capacity Wind power Biomass Heat Industry Tidal power DSM Wave power Nuclear power Distribution capacity Solar power Storage Coal power with CCS Scenario

3 Samtidstrender inom energi Nollutsläpp av växthusgaser (CO2) Elektrifiering (Transporter, Industri etc) Sektoröverskridande kopplingar Samordning/samarbete Vad använder vi begränsade resurser till?

4 Hur varierar vind och sol? Solkraftproduktion (gult), västra Danmark, 2014, helår och sommarvecka Källa: Energinet.dk,

5 Hur varierar vind och sol? Vindkraftproduktion (grönt), västra Danmark, 2014, helår timvis (övre grafen) och månadsvis (nedre grafen) Källa: Energinet.dk,

6 Vad händer med mycket vindkraft? [MW] Västra Danmark, Vintervecka, Elanvändning Måste tillgodoses av annat än vindkraft

7 Traditionell syn Baslast/topplast Sveriges elanvändning över ett år [MW] Baslast Tid Elanvändning i Sverige, helår, 2012 Källa: Nord Pool Spot,

8 Current challenges The 100% renewable energy/power system Requires a paradigm (supply on demand=>demand to match supply) Implies replacement of the majority of present power plants (Renewables are the least cost alternative!) We need better understanding of our demands New demands come into play (e.g. EVs)

9 Solar PV employment level Conceptual map of measures to facilitate large amounts of VRES Reinforced local grids Batteries TRADE Power to heat Increased interconnector capacity Wind employment level

10 Slutsatser Ökad användning av vind- och solelsproduktion ger ökat behov av flexibilitet Mycket mer än batterier! Ett flertal verktyg finns att tillgå Låt oss inte fastna i nuvarande paradigm Vi måste lösa en rad närstående bekymmer MEN! (Svängmassa etc) Systemet är dynamiskt! Det såg mycket annorlunda ut för ~20 år sedan och kan ändras mycket de kommande 20 åren (ex. marknadsregler före 1996?) Det finns stora möjligheter i elektrifiering av sektorer som traditionellt sett är tunga på fossil energi

11 Möjligheter på kommunal/regional nivå Kommunala energibolag Energirådgivare/dialog med industri Kollektivtrafik Stadsplanering Byggnader (Nybyggnad OCH Användarfasen)

12 extra

13 MtCO 2 /year Where are we heading? EU CO 2 - emissions Statistics & targets 3000 Other (transport) Industry Power & heat sources: [Boden et al., 2010; EC-JRC/PBL, 2009; European Commission 2011; EEA, 2015]

14 European electricity production (GWh) A sustainable power system imply large scale employment of variable biogas peak peak biogas PV wind gas biomass re_chp coal fossil_chp lignite CCS nuclear hydro renewables

15 Wind and solar energy Variable availability Increased flexibility => higher employment Cost efficient CO 2 free energy Electrification of new demands Modular Small units Prosumers

16 Large scale introduction of variable renewable power Variation management strategies required for maximizing the value of wind and solar PV Shaping Absorbing Complementing Electricity Electricity Reduce curtailment and peak power More even costs on diurnal basis Electricity Fuel and heat Reduce curtailment Fewer low cost events Fuel Electricity Reduce peak power More even costs on yearly basis Batteries Power-to-heat Flexible thermal generation Load shifting Electrofuels Reservoir hydropower Pumped hydro Power to gas (hydrogen)

17 Diverse demands

18 E.g. Using flexibility in El. For heat

19 New demands require new methods (e.g. profiles)

20 Electrifying transportation Stavanger Bergen Large possibilities to influence interaction with the electricity system by strategy Charging home/work? Fast charging Electric road systems Electrofuels?

21 Different ways of using electricity for transport Electric vehicles (EV) n =73% Electric road systems (ERS) n=77% Hydrogen n=24% Electrofuels n=17% Static charging Home Work/public places Fast charging stations Dynamic charging Conductive Inductive (wireless) Water (H2O) + electricity H2 H2 + CO 2 e.g. methanol Directly/Optimised/ vehicle-to-grid (V2G) Lower fossil fuel demand biofuels) Increased electricity demand (and

22 Nettolast vid olika laddbeteende

23 Laddmönster

24 Inkopplad batterieffekt 60% elbilar (motsv 2 miljoner bilar)

25 Germany and Scandinavia with and without EVs in 2030 Source: Taljegard et al. 2018

26 Electrification of industry

27 Adding non-syncronous generation Source: Mark O Malley UCD

28 Marginal cost and price Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh] Supply Demand 1 Demand 2 Demand 3 MC3 =? MC1 =? MC2 =? Supply [GW]

29 Revenue Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh] Supply Demand 1 Demand 3 If Demand 1 OPEX = revenue If Demand 3 OPEX < revenue, providing cost coverage of CAPEX and/or short term profit Supply [GW]

30 How to finance peak units Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh] Supply Demand 1 Demand 2 Demand 3 MC3 =? MC1 =? MC2 =? Supply [GW]

31 Correct amount of peaker Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh ] Price >> MC peaker owner earns money Someone will invest Price > MC peaker Short term profit cover CAPEX Capacity deficit GW Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh ] GW Capacity deficit Capacity surplus Capacity in balance Demand Capacity in balance Capacity surplus Demand

32 Wind System min load System max load Nordic average available capacity supply curve (simplified to technology classes) Intermittent availability reduces RES capacity Gas turbines Gas turbines Weighted average by availability (annual capacity factor) Average load CHP Coal Oil cond. CHP Coal Oil cond. Nuclear Nuclear Hydro

33 Our methodological framework Objectives (e.g. Cost minimization) Political Environment E.g. Policy/targets Technology Development Energy Sources Prices Availability Technical Energy System (TES) El. sector Energy tech. Energy flows Tran. Sector Energy Demand Sectors Regional Quality Duration/load Demands for: Housing Service Industrial goods Transportation Etc. TES-boundary

34 ELIN and EPOD -modellpaket

35 What is the impact of an electrified road sector on the power demand from the grid?

36 MtCO 2 /year 30 Carbon-intensive industry in the Nordic countries (without CCS) Reduced activity level refineries Biomass in iron and steel and cement industries Reduced fraction of clinker in cement BAT replacing existing process technology Existing measures NOT sufficient if to meet 2050 GHG emission targets 36 (14)

37 MtCO 2 /year 30 Carbon-intensive industry in the Nordic countries (with CCS) Large-scale introduction could come at a high price in terms of energy use Large volumes of CO 2 to handle With CCS total potential: 85% reduction in Year 2050 relative to (14)

38 All sectors matter supply chain cooperation necessary - Example cement to end products CLINKER PRODUCTION CONCRETE MANUFACTURING Civil engineering Transport infrastructure CEM I Hydraulic works Other RMC Non-residential buildings Public Grey clinker CEM II Commercial PCE Other White clinker Residential buildings CEMENT PRODUCTION Blended cements White cements PCP Multi-dwelling houses Single detached houses Other Rootzén and Johnsson (2017)

39 Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 Handel med utsläppsrätter EU-ETS < 10 /ton CO 2

40 Nya sätt att prissätta koldioxid behövs Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 EU-ETS < 10 /ton CO 2 Rootzén and Johnsson, (2015) Se

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