Ingen minskning av fossil energi trots storsatsning på förnybart Filip Johnsson November 26, 2018 Department of Space, Earth and Environment,

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1 Ingen minskning av fossil energi trots storsatsning på förnybart Filip Johnsson November 26, 2018 Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Division of Energy Technology Sweden

2 Global RES Investments (Billion US$) Share of Total Primary Energy Demand (%) Strong growth in RES investments % Fossil fuels (% of TPED) 81.0% Global RES Investments (Billion US$) % NHRES (% of TPED) 11.7%

3 Global RES Investments (Billion US$) Share of Total Primary Energy Demand (%) Strong growth in RES investments zero reduction in fossil fuel share! Fossil fuels (% of TPED) 80.5% 81.4% Global RES Investments (Billion US$) NHRES (% of TPED) % 11.2% TPED = Total Primary Energy Demand NHRES = Non Hydro Renewable Energy Sources Se också 0 Johnsson, F., Kjärstad, J., Rootzén, J. (2018): The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels, Climate Policy, DOI: /

4 Global trends - renewable energy

5 Global trends fossil fuels Disruptive transformation required! Johnsson, F., Kjärstad, J., Rootzén, J. (2018): The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels, Climate Policy, DOI: /

6 Global trends fossil fuels Disruptive transformation required! Increased RES electrification reduces conversion losses Johnsson, F., Kjärstad, J., Rootzén, J. (2018): The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels, Climate Policy, DOI: /

7 Global trends fossil fuels Disruptive transformation required! Increased RES electrification reduces conversion losses but requires more capacity (thermal base-load replaced by non-dispathable RES electricity) Johnsson, F., Kjärstad, J., Rootzén, J. (2018): The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels, Climate Policy, DOI: /

8 Fossilbränslestrategier Carbon emissions pricing Fossil fuel taxation Emissions performance standards (EPS) Phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies Divestments from fossil fuel industries Procurement Transition policies Moratorium on fossil fuel supply projects Funding for research and demonstration projects

9 Fossilbränslestrategier Carbon emissions pricing Fossil fuel taxation Emissions performance standards (EPS) Phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies Divestments from fossil fuel industries Procurement Transition policies Moratorium on fossil fuel supply projects Funding for research and demonstration projects Have not resulted in the necessary transition

10 Challenge The established policy measures such as the EU-ETS have, so far, had a limited effect (e.g. Drummond & Ekins, 2017) and are likely not to impose carbon prices high enough to result in transformative mitigation measures

11 Challenge Procurement - difficult to integrate requirements on (longterm) transformative changes

12 Opportunities There is a significant will within several key industries to comply with climate mitigation targets (Esty, 2007) The cost of the technical measures required to achieve zero or near zero emissions are likely to only give marginal price increase on the end-products and services (Rootzén and Johnsson, 2016a, 2016b)

13 Supply chain analysis Steel to car IRON & STEEL MAKING HOT STRIP MILL FABRICATION Vehicles Cars Trucks Other transport Steel slab By-products Hot rolled coil/sheet Industrial equipment Machinery Electrical Cold rolled coil/sheet COLD ROLLING Coated coil/sheet Construction Infrastructure Heavy plate Steel slabs Buildings Fabrication scrap Metal goods Packaging PLATE MILL Appliances Other

14 Supply chain analysis Cement (and steel) to building CLINKER PRODUCTION CONCRETE MANUFACTURING Civil engineering Transport infrastructure CEM I Hydraulic works Other RMC Non-residential buildings Public Grey clinker CEM II Commercial PCE Other White clinker Residential buildings CEMENT PRODUCTION Blended cements White cements PCP Multi-dwelling houses Single detached houses Other

15 Kostnad för att ta bort koldioxiden Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 Handel med utsläppsrätter EU-ETS < 25 /ton CO 2

16 Nya sätt att prissätta koldioxid behövs Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 EU-ETS < 25 /ton CO 2 Rootzén and Johnsson, (2015) Se

17 Opportunities There is a significant will within several key industries to comply with climate mitigation targets (Esty, 2007) The cost of the technical measures required to achieve zero or near zero emissions are likely to only give marginal price increase on the end-products and services (Rootzén and Johnsson, 2016a, 2016b) There is generally a significant willingness to pay for climate mitigation among the general public (Albirini et al., 2018) Supply chain actors formation

18 citizens are able to organize not just one but multiple governing authorities at differing scales

19 Nya fossilbränslestrategier behövs Carbon emissions pricing Fossil fuel taxation Emissions performance standards (EPS) Phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies Divestments from fossil fuel industries Procurement Transition policies Moratorium on fossil fuel supply projects Funding for research and demonstration projects Have not resulted the necessary transition Collective action along value chains

20 Transition Fund Supply-chain actors formation

21 Transition Fund Supply-chain actors formation Identification of mitigation measures

22 Transition Fund Supply-chain actors formation Identification of mitigation measures Establishment of action pathway

23 Transition Fund Supply-chain actors formation Identification of mitigation measures Establishment of action pathway Commitment Paying for fund+ material outlet guarantee

24 Transition Fund Supply-chain actors formation Identification of mitigation measures Evaluation Establishment of action pathway Implementation Commitment Paying for fund+ material outlet guarantee Procurement Project assessment Project decision

25 Sammanfattningsvis Länder med stora reserver av fossila bränslen kraftig tillväxt i användandet av dessa bränslen, liten tillväxt i förnybara energislag Andelen förnybar energi från sol, vind och biomassa har minskat i viktiga länder som Kina och Indien Endast i regioner med små inhemska tillgångar av fossila bränslen (tex Japan, Tyskland och EU som helhet) har den fossilbaserade primärenergianvändningen minskat Trots betydande investeringar i förnybar energi nästintill oförändrad andel fossilt i globala energianvändningen sedan 2004

26 Vad kan Sverige göra? Driva på för styrmedel och strategier som direkt syftar till att minska användningen av fossila bränslen Bygga vidare på att det finns en ökad vilja bland företag och kunder att minska sin klimatpåverkan Utveckla vad som kan benämnas kollektivt handlande där företag i olika branscher längs värdekedjor från basmaterial till slutprodukter går ihop och tillsammans bestämmer sig för att ta fram koldioxidfria produkter och tjänster Upprätta en tranformationsfond?

27 Om världen rör sig i enlighet med Parisavtalet att begränsa jordens uppvärmning till väl under 2ºC Mycket stor efterfrågan på koldioxidneutrala produkter och tjänster

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