VGR är en del ieuropaselsystem hur utnyttjar vi det? Vindkraft resurser ur ett lokalt och internationellt perspektiv

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1 VGR är en del ieuropaselsystem hur utnyttjar vi det? Vindkraft resurser ur ett lokalt och internationellt perspektiv May 13th, 215 Mikael Odenberger, Lisa Göransson, Thomas Unger and Karolina Nilsson

2 VGR part of a large system

3 Analysis of prospects for renewable electricity in the KASK region Detailed mapping of wind power (conflicts with alternative land use and mapping of wind availability) Detailed survey of CHP and industrial back pressure based on biomass and waste fuels Estimates of new hydro power schemes (based on e.g. Chalmers power plant database ) In combination with electricity system modelling of EU 27+NO+CH divided into 53 regional price areas, we identify possible/realistic development paths for electricity supply in the KASK region

4 The four main scenarios for European electricity supply of the Pathways research programme 5 Reference 5 Climate Market TWh Existing capacity New renewables CCS New fossil TWh Existing capacity New renewables CCS New fossil New nuclear TWh Regional Policy Existing capacity New renewables New fossil New nuclear CCS TWh Green Policy Existing capacity New renewables New fossil

5 Assumptions on CO 2 reduction in European electricity supply Mton CO % GHG until 23, comprd. 199, in the entire energy system > approx. 5% CO2 in electricity supply 8 95% GHG until 25, comprd. 199, in the entire energy system > approx 95 99% CO2 in electricity supply 3%, 22 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES REF Dec 213) 5%, 23 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES Roadmap) 65%, 25 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES Roadmap) (Reference) %, 25 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES Roadmap)

6 Electricity supply in EU 27, NO+CH Green Policy Regional Policy TWh Other Other renew Wind Biomass and waste Natural gas CCS Natural gas Oil Coal/Biomass cofire CCS Coal CCS Coal convent Nuclear Hydro TWh Other Other renew Wind Biomass and waste Natural gas CCS Natural gas Oil Coal/Biomass cofire CCS Coal CCS Coal convent Nuclear Hydro Year Year

7 Electricity supply in Sweden Green Policy Regional Policy TWh 1 TWh Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Common EU cert. scheme Nuc.: 45 yrs lifetime +13 TWh RES E (common Swe Nor cert. scheme) Nuc.: 6 yrs lifetime (new optional)

8 Electricity supply in KASK SWE Green Policy Regional Policy TWh 3 2 TWh Hydro Convent fossil Hydro Convent fossil Nuclear Biomass and waste Nuclear Biomass and waste Wind PV Wind PV Gross demand Gross demand > Will require sufficient back up either internally or through imports. During other time periods, large volumes of wind power will have to be exported Rough estimate: approx 18 TWh wind in 25 > 8 GW compared to approx 5 GW max load and approx 2 GW secure supply (hydro, thermalexclback up and share of wind power)

9 Future KASK rich in wind power Wind power resource base Electricity prices Electricity market (availability and price structure) Harmonizing measures (toolbox) DSM Linkages to the transport sector Linkages to the heating sector Trade

10 Available land surface for wind power installations Återstående ytor efter avdrag för vattendrag, infrastruktur, miljöoch naturskyddsområden, tättbebyggda områden (> 3 pp/km2) samt annat Available surface of total

11 Otillåten yta om >1 pp/km2 eller infrastruktur eller naturskydd Otillåten yta om >5 pp/km2 eller infrastruktur eller naturskydd Some 3 different areas (per region) have been defined as possible conflic areas, e.g. Natura 2 areas, densely populated areas, recreational areas, waterways, etc

12 Our best estimate (available surface for wind power installations relative total surface) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% KASK Nor: ca 4 inv/km2 landmassa VG: ca 55 inv/km2 landmassa Halland: ca 5 inv/km2 landmassa > filtret >3 inv/km2 får därmed större betydelse i KASK Sve än i KASK Nor % KASK NOR Halland KASK TOT VGR KASK Swe, approx. 45%

13 Wind availability measurements Stora ytor med 7m/s (orange färg) vilket anses vara goda vindlägen Source: Windmap (mätningar på 12 meters höjd)

14 Wind availability in the KASK region adapted to the level of detail in the model package Produktionsdata, det vill säga anpassat till en tänkt vindkraftpark (ca 1 meters rotorhöjd) (Chalmers vinddata baserat på ECMWF, (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) 9 13 timmar timmar timmar

15 What share of the estimated available land surface may be profitable for wind power exploitation? 35 3 Full load hours ~55 EUR/MWh ~75 EUR/MWh ~1 EUR/MWh KASK Norway Inv: 133 EUR/kW D&U: 25 EUR/kW 7%, 21 år 5 KASK Sweden km2 If we assume 6 7 EUR/MWh as total revenue for wind power, apporoximately 1% of available surface is profitable to exploit under our assumptions BUT: If we put a wind farm on that surface > 1 km2*1 kw/km2 + 4 km2*1 kw/km2 = 1 GW + 4 GW = 5 GW!!! (alternatively, if we assume a higher revenue, the profitable surface increases)

16 Base case 23 (SWE) 9,5 GW Nuclear > 55 6 TWh 6 year lifetime 16,7 GW Hydro power > 65 TWh ca 5 GW CHP > TWh incl Backpreassure (ca 15 TWh today) (~4 GW Condens+Gas turb.) > < 1 TWh (for a normal year) 11,5 GW Wind power > 26 TWh (214 ca 5,5 GW > ca 13 TWh) Sensitivity analysis by the dispatch model EPOD: Wind power levels of 15, 26, 5 och 7 TWh in Sweden by 23 Nuclear power levels of GW, 5.6 GW (R3 4, O3 and F3 remains) and 9,5 GW kärnkraft i Sverige år 23 (in combination with 7 TWh wind)

17 Example: Swedish electricity generation up scaled wind power GWh/3hr TWh 5 TWh GWh/3hr Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Increasing wind power from 26 to 5 TWh wind power > Less nuclear and hydro power used more dynamic (more variations close to max/min capacity) CHP marginally lower Increased Net export Source: EPOD_Regional ( Reg P )

18 El. price distribution all cases for 23 EUR/MWh TWh TWh 23 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh 23, 5,6 GW Nuc 7 TWh 23, NoNuc Price area SE3 Less available Nuclear (or other thermal power) > more high price hours Results from sensitivity analysis: differences due to varying wind power and nuclear power levels only > The more wind power the sharper price distribution > Capacity surplus (remaining old power plants) dampen price spikes Increasedwindpowerpenetration > more low price hours

19 Average annual el. price (SE3) Effect of increased wind power penetration (everything else constant) Effect of reduced nuclear capacity (everything else constant) SEK/MWh

20 Example: extreme el. prices (percent of year; SE3) 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % TWh TWh 23 Antal timmar<1 EUR/MWh 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh 23, 5,6 GW Nuc 7 TWh 23, NoNuc Antal timmar>1 EUR/MWh Clear threashold, i.e., exrtreme prices more significant above 5TWh Explained by large trading capacity and hydro power

21 Annual average electrcity price given different load/production situations SEK/MWh Årligt medelelpris för olika produktionsprofiler Minskande elpris med stigande årlig vindkraftproduktion Stigande elpris med minskande KK kapacitet (allt annat lika) Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elpris, vindkraft Elpris, kraftvärme The larger wind power penetration the lower the average electrcity price Wind power loose and Bio CHP gain if nuclear is shut down (high prices during winter time)

22 Green certificates as driver for wind power? SEK/MWh SEK/MWh Elpris, vindkraft Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind > Since prices are low when the wind blows the costs for wind power will have to be carried by the certificate scheme (or something else)

23 Variations in electricity prices trade hydro wind gas bio waste gas_chp coal_chp bio_chp waste_chp

24 Toolbox Internal trade hydropower International trade geographical smoothening Demand Side Management Linkages to the transportation sector Linkages to the heat sector

25 Demand Side Management Households heating and hot water The building can store heat up to 1 hours Mainly in winter time Industry process dependent without lines DSM wind load GW EUR/MWh

26 High cost intervals duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power

27 Linkages to the transportation sector EV:s and PHEV:s Charging of vehicles can be distributed over 8 hour periods office hour and night time Mainly workdays Electrofuels Easy storage over seasons All year

28 Low cost intervals duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power

29 Linkages to the heat sector Flexible CHP production Adjust alpha values depending on electricity price Long and short term variations Mainly in winter Heat pumps and electric boilers Use low cost electricity to produce heat Buildings and grids as heat storages up to 12 hours Mainly in winter

30

31 Low cost intervals 7 TWh_no nuc Time of year 6 number of hours with mc <5 EUR/MWh winter spring summer autumn TWh_no nuc 5 TWh 2 1 winter spring summer autumn

32 Summary: Wind power projections in the KASK region Regional Policy 15 Regional Policy TWh 1 Regional Policy increased ambition TWh 1 Regional Policy increased ambition Green Policy Green Policy 5 Climate Market 5 Climate Market Long term estimate based on our scenarios: 5 15 TWh Long term estimate based on our scenarios: 3 1 TWh

33 Medelpris per säsong samtliga beräkningsfall 12 1 SEK/MWh Vinter Vår Sommar Höst 212 (Stat) 212 (modellberäkn) 15 TWh TWh 23 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh, 5,6 GW KK 7 TWh, utan KK

34 Medelpris per säsong olika vindvolym, allt annat lika SEK/MWh Vinter Vår Sommar Höst 15 TWh TWh 23 7 TWh 23 5 TWh 23

35 RES E share across the four main scenarios, EU 27+NO+CH (given input in some cases) RES E share (%) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Year Green Policy Reference EC, july 214, scen EE27 Regional Policy Climate Market

36 Model results: Marginal cost of electricity ( the wholesale price ) EU weighted average 6 EUR/MWh Reference Regional Policy Climate Market Green Policy

37 Model results: Marginal cost of electricity ( the wholesale price ) EUR/MWh Reference Regional Policy Climate Market Green Policy

38 Electricity supply in Norway Green Policy Regional Policy TWh 1 TWh Fossil Hydro Fossil Hydro Biomass, waste, peat Wind Biomass, waste, peat Wind Other renewables Gross demand Other renewables Gross demand Common EU cert. Scheme (+1 15 TWh hydro until 25) +13 TWh RES E (common Swe Nor cert. scheme)

39 Electricity supply in KASK NOR Green Policy Regional Policy TWh 4 3 TWh Hydro Nuclear Wind Gross demand Convent fossil Biomass and waste PV Hydro Nuclear Wind Gross demand Convent fossil Biomass and waste PV

40 Ett högt årsmedelelpris innebär inte alltid högt elpris Under ca ¼ av året ligger elpriset i vårt högprisscenario klart under ett normalprisscenario trots att årsmedelpriset är ca dubbelt så högt SEK/MWh 15 TWh 23 7 TWh, utan KK

41 Svensk elproduktion år 23 i basfallet (26 TWh vindkraft) GWh/3hr Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Källa: EPOD_Regional ( Reg P )

42 Beräkning av elcertifikatpris (=marginalkostnad för ny vindkraft årsmedelelpris) SEK/MWh Marginalkostnad för ny vindkraft (Energimyndigheten, 214) Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind

43 Säsongsvis fördelning av lågpristimmar Säsongsvis fördeln av lågpristimmar (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Andel lågpristimmar per år (%) Ökad vindkraftvolym leder till en relativt jämn fördelning av lågpristimmar mellan säsongerna > markant förändring jmfrt med nuläget Andel vinter Andel sommar Andel lågpristimmar per år Andel vår Andel höst Lågpris : < 1 öre/kwh

44 Säsongsvis fördelning av högpristimmar Säsongsvis fördeln av lågpristimmar (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Andel lågpristimmar per år (%) Ökad vindkraftvolym leder till en ngt jämnare fördelning av högpristimmar mellan säsongerna men vinterdominansen kvarstår Andel vinter Andel sommar Andel högpristimmar per år Andel vår Andel höst Högpris : > 1 öre/kwh

45 Totalintäkten för olika kraftslag varierar och beror på produktionsprofil och princip för elcertifikatprisberäkning 12 Elcertifikat enligt tidsmedelvärdesprincipen 12 Elcertifikat enligt vindprofilprincipen SEK/MWh 6 4 SEK/MWh SUMMA intäkt för RES baslast SUMMA intäkt för vind SUMMA intäkt för kraftvärme SUMMA intäkt för RES baslast SUMMA intäkt för vind SUMMA intäkt för kraftvärme Vindkraft en intäktsförlorare vid växande vindkraftvolym+kk avveckling, i synnerhet om elcertifikatpriset bestäms av medelelpriset under året Biokraftvärme intäktsvinnare vid växande vindkraftvolym, i synnerhet om vindkraftproduktionsprofilen bestämmer elcertifikatpriset