Världens eko Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms universitet Beijerinstitutet, Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien
Biosfär formad av människan
Perspektivet Alltmer integrerade ekonomier och samhällen Den levande resursbasen fundamentet för integreringen Miljöfrågor handlar om vår egen utveckling säkerställa och möjliggöra en progressiv samhällsutveckling
Urbanisation, globalisation and seafood production Fishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand Deutsch et al. 2007. Global Environmental Change 17:238-249 D
Hela jorden är sammanbunden i ett system ekologiskt, socialt, politiskt och ekonomiskt
florianotte.webseiten.cc/ alexhaensel/alex/pho... > 50% bor i urbana områden Många har tappat kontakten med naturen
Ekosystemen levererar tjänster Städer i Östersjöregionen 250 000 invånare
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem services the benefits people obtain from ecosystems www.maweb.org
Ekosystemtjänster (inkl. matproduktion), beror av människans förmåga att samarbeta med biosfären och stärka resiliensen Grazing Pollination Seafood production Storm buffering Carbon sinks Freshwater generation
Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?
Stocks of predatory fish (cod, tuna, flatfish). Source: Christensen et al. 2003, Fish and Fisheries 1900 1950 Figure 11 1975 1999
Lobster aquaculture and juicy dinners a gilded trap? Rhode Island 72% loss from shell disease
Food production must be based more on biodiversity and ecosystem services than monocultures and fossil fuels Rebuilding in harmony with nature
Tipping points
Critical transitions and regime shifts
Låg resiliens plötsliga brytpunkter
Green Sahara Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, 2037-2040.
Carl Folke, Science Stockholm Director Resilience Centre
Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, 2037-2040. Carl Folke, Science Stockholm Director Resilience Centre
Interactions global markets, land use, disturbance, regional tipping and climate the case of the Borneo rainforests, and the weather event El Niño
Turning El Niño from creator to destroyer 1997 fires - 13 40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels e.g. Curran et al. 200. Science; Page et al. 2002. Nature
Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System After Schellnhuber 2002
Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle First migration of fully modern humans out of Africa Aborigines arrive in Australia Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe Beginning of agriculture Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, Out of Eden, 2004
The Resilience of the Earth System
Climate Change Ozone depletion Rate of N input to the biosphere, P-inflow to Oceans Rate of Biodiversity Loss Planetary Boundaries Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Ocean acidification Global Freshwater Use Changes in land use Chemical Pollution
A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY to stay away from global tipping points
Resiliens Vända kris till möjlighet Förmåga att klara av oväntad förändring och kunna vidareutvecklas
Brist på resiliens överraskningar
Resilience turning crisis into opportunities 1. Buffra förändring 2. Aktiv anpassing 3. Transformering
Transformation for building resilience of the Great Barrier Reef system
Transformation for building social-ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef system Crisis - Shifting perspective From separate parts to an integrated whole Active transformation of governance Olsson, Folke, Hughes, 2008. PNAS
Transformation of SES Chile s coastal resources Australia s Great Barrier Reef Sweden s urban landscapes Window of opportunity Preparing the system for change Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction
Active stewardship of Earth s life-support Systems Real world examples of social-ecological systems providing new insights for governance of ecosystem services Serve as pockets of resilience in landscapes and seascapes in times of global environmental change Kristianstads Vattenrike, Southern Sweden Olsson et al. 2005. Ecology & Society Schultz et al. in press. World Development
Actor groups that take part in navigating transitions and help develop and retain a social/collective memory of ecosystem management in the face of change Leaders, stewards, brookers, middlemen Knowledge carriers and retainers Interpreters and sense makers Networkers and facilitaters Visionaries and inspirers Innovators and experimenters Followers and reinforcers
Bridging organizations Bridging organization Performing essential functions in crafting effective responses to change in social-ecological systems Linking groups, networks and organizations across levels, creating the right links, at the right time, around the right issues Accessing and combining multiple sources of knowledge and interests Enhancing vertical and horizontal integration and social learning Folke et al. 2005, Hahn et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2007
Skifte i perspektiv Värdefråga Ödesfråga Bevara Utveckla Minska trycket Aktivt sköta Reglera o styra - Samförvalta
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