Världens eko. Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms universitet Beijerinstitutet, Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien

Transkript

1 Världens eko Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms universitet Beijerinstitutet, Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien

2

3 Biosfär formad av människan

4 Welcome to the Anthropocene Humans have changed the way the world works. Now they have to change the way they think about it, too Reconnecting to the Biosphere Humans have become a force of nature reshaping the planet on a geological scale but at a far-faster-than-geological speed. May 28th, 2011

5 Perspektivet Alltmer integrerade ekonomier och samhällen Den levande resursbasen fundamentet för integreringen Miljöfrågor handlar om vår egen utveckling säkerställa och möjliggöra en progressiv samhällsutveckling

6 Urbanisation, globalisation and seafood production Fishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand Deutsch et al Global Environmental Change 17: D

7 Hela jorden är sammanbunden i ett system ekologiskt, socialt, politiskt och ekonomiskt

8 florianotte.webseiten.cc/ alexhaensel/alex/pho... > 50% bor i urbana områden Många har tappat kontakten med naturen

9

10 Ekosystemen levererar tjänster Städer i Östersjöregionen invånare

11 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem services the benefits people obtain from ecosystems

12 Ekosystemtjänster (inkl. matproduktion), beror av människans förmåga att samarbeta med biosfären och stärka resiliensen Grazing Pollination Seafood production Storm buffering Carbon sinks Freshwater generation

13 Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?

14 Stocks of predatory fish (cod, tuna, flatfish). Source: Christensen et al. 2003, Fish and Fisheries Figure

15 Lobster aquaculture and juicy dinners a gilded trap? Rhode Island 72% loss from shell disease

16 Food production must be based more on biodiversity and ecosystem services than monocultures and fossil fuels Rebuilding in harmony with nature

17 Tipping points

18 Critical transitions and regime shifts

19 Låg resiliens plötsliga brytpunkter

20 Green Sahara Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26,

21 Carl Folke, Science Stockholm Director Resilience Centre

22 Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, Carl Folke, Science Stockholm Director Resilience Centre

23 Interactions global markets, land use, disturbance, regional tipping and climate the case of the Borneo rainforests, and the weather event El Niño

24

25 Turning El Niño from creator to destroyer 1997 fires % of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels e.g. Curran et al Science; Page et al Nature

26 Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System After Schellnhuber 2002

27 Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle First migration of fully modern humans out of Africa Aborigines arrive in Australia Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe Beginning of agriculture Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, Out of Eden, 2004

28 The Resilience of the Earth System

29 Climate Change Ozone depletion Rate of N input to the biosphere, P-inflow to Oceans Rate of Biodiversity Loss Planetary Boundaries Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Ocean acidification Global Freshwater Use Changes in land use Chemical Pollution

30 A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY to stay away from global tipping points

31 Resiliens Vända kris till möjlighet Förmåga att klara av oväntad förändring och kunna vidareutvecklas

32 Brist på resiliens överraskningar

33

34 Resilience turning crisis into opportunities 1. Buffra förändring 2. Aktiv anpassing 3. Transformering

35 Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?

36 Goulburn-Broken agriculture Economically lucrative - thriving Dryland cropping, grazing, irrigated dairy and fruit production, connecting the region to global markets - one quarter of the State of Victoria's export earnings Thresholds with possible knock-on effects between them widespread clearing of native vegetation and high levels of water use for irrigation have resulted in rising water tables, with severe salinization problems Breaking the agricultural path transform, requires changing deep values and creating a new identity Walker et al E&S

37 Transformation for building social-ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef system Crisis - Shifting perspective From separate parts to an integrated whole Active transformation of governance Olsson, Folke, Hughes, PNAS

38 Navigating the transition to ecosystem-based management of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia Enabling conditions, strategies and leadership for: Olsson, Folke, Hughes PNAS Making organizational changes Bridging science and policy Changing people s perceptions Facilitating community participation and public consultation Gaining state and national political support Incorporating an understanding of ecosystem dynamics into the governance system to build capacity for managing ecosystem services

39 From Open Access to Ecosystem Stewardship of coastal marine resources in Chile -- Transforming governance

40 3. The Window of Opportunity It is during the period of crisis or surprise that institutions and connections between them are most open to dramatic transformation. Stefan Gelcich et al. (2010) PNAS 107:

41 Transformation of SES Chile s coastal resources Australia s Great Barrier Reef Sweden s urban landscapes Window of opportunity Preparing the system for change Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction

42 Active stewardship of Earth s life-support Systems Real world examples of social-ecological systems providing new insights for governance of ecosystem services Serve as pockets of resilience in landscapes and seascapes in times of global environmental change Kristianstads Vattenrike, Southern Sweden Olsson et al Ecology & Society Schultz et al. in press. World Development

43 Actor groups that take part in navigating transitions and help develop and retain a social/collective memory of ecosystem management in the face of change Leaders, stewards, brookers, middlemen Knowledge carriers and retainers Interpreters and sense makers Networkers and facilitaters Visionaries and inspirers Innovators and experimenters Followers and reinforcers

44 Bridging organizations Bridging organization Performing essential functions in crafting effective responses to change in social-ecological systems Linking groups, networks and organizations across levels, creating the right links, at the right time, around the right issues Accessing and combining multiple sources of knowledge and interests Enhancing vertical and horizontal integration and social learning Folke et al. 2005, Hahn et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2007

45 Skifte i perspektiv Värdefråga Ödesfråga Bevara Utveckla Minska trycket Aktivt sköta Reglera o styra - Samförvalta

46

47

48 The Resilience Lens provides new, often surprising insights

49