Swedbank Economic Outlook Swedbank analyserar den svenska och de baltiska ekonomierna - 10 April, 2013

Swedbank Economic Outlook Swedbank analyserar den svenska och de baltiska ekonomierna - 10 April, 2013

Introduktion Makroekonomiska indikatorer, 2011-2014 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Real BNP tillväxt, årlig förändring i % Sverige (kalenderkorrigerad) 3,7 1,2 1,6 2,7 Estland 8,3 3,2 3,3 4,2 Lettland 5,5 5,6 4,3 5 Litauen 5,9 3,6 4 4 Arbetslöshetsnivå,% av arbetskraften Sverige 7,8 8 8,3 8,2 Estland 12,5 10,2 9,5 8,9 Lettland 16,2 14,9 13,5 11,5 Litauen 15,3 13,2 11,5 10 Inflation (KPI), årlig förändring i% Sverige 3 0,9 0,3 1,8 Estland 5 3,9 3,3 2,9 Lettland 4,4 2,3 1,1 3,5 Litauen 4,1 3,1 2,5 3,4 Bytesbalansen,% av BNP Sverige 7,3 7 6,5 6,1 Estland 2,1-1,2-2,5-2,7 Lettland -2,2-1,7-2,8-3,8 Litauen -3,7-0,5-0,9-2,3 Källor: Nationell statistik och Sw edbank. 2

Introduktion Enhetsarbetskostnader (index 2000=100; sa) 150 140 130 120 110 Italien Grekland Frankrike Spanien Irland Portugal Tyskland 100 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Källor: Eurostat och Riksbanken. 3

Introduktion Årlig tillväxt, % 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 0-1 -2 EMU Sverige Estland Lettland Litauen Källor: Nationella statistiska myndigheten och Swedbank. 4

Global Global real BNP-prognos, 2011-2014 (årlig tillväxt i procent)1/ Utfall April 2013 January 2013 2011 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 USA 1,8 2,2 1,8 2,6 2,2 2 2,3 EMU 1,5-0,5-0,6 1-0,4-0,3 0,7 Tyskland 3 0,7 0,6 1,9 0,9 0,2 1,5 Frankrike 1,7 0-0,7 0,5 0 0,1 0,7 Italien 0,6-2,2-1,5 0,5-2,1-1,1 0 Spanien 0,4-1,4-1,8 0,5-1.5-1,1 0,1 Finland 2,8 0,1 0,7 1,8-0,2 0,5 2 Storbritannien 0,8 0 0,8 1,8-0,1 1 1,7 Danmark 1,1-0,2 1 1,5-0,5 0,4 1,4 Norge 1,2 3,2 2,1 2,3 3,2 2 2,3 Japan -0,7 1,9 1,3 1,6 1,8 0,7 1,2 Kina 9,2 7,8 8,3 8 7,7 7,9 7,5 Indien 7,2 5,1 6,4 6,8 5,5 6 6,5 Brasilien 2,7 0,9 3,5 4 1,4 3,5 4 Ryssland 4,3 3,4 3,3 4 3,6 3,7 4,1 Global BNP (PPP)2/ 3,9 3 3,1 3,7 3 3,1 3,4 Global BNP (US dollar)2/ 2,9 2,4 2,4 3 2,3 2,3 2,8 Källor: Nationell statistik och Swedbank. 1/ Länder som representerar ca. 70 % av världsekonomin. 2/ Nya vikter från Världsbanken 2011 har använts. Om samma vikter hade använts i oktober, hade den globala tillväxten prognosticerats till 3,1 %, 3,2 % och 3,5 % för 2012, 2013 och 2014. 5

Global EMU industrisektor 20 10 0 Årlig industriproduk tion, % -10 Förtroende (nettotal) -20-30 -40 jan-05 nov-05 sep-06 jul-07 maj-08 mar-09 jan-10 nov-10 sep-11 jul-12 Källa: Eurostat 6

Sverige Sverige: Försörjningsbalans Procent volymförändring 2011 Hushållens konsumtionsutgifter 2,1 1,5 (1,4) 2,5 (2,1) 2,9 (3,0) Offentliga konsumtionsutgifter 1,1 0,8 (0,5) 1,0 (0,8) 1,2 (1,1) Fasta bruttoinvesteringar 6,4 3,4 (3,1) 1,1 (1,0) 4,2 (4,2) näringsliv exkl. bostäder 6,2 7,3 (6,8) 2,8 (1,7) 4,8 (5,1) offentliga myndigheter -1,4 3,9 (2,9) 2,3 (3,1) 3,8 (2,9) bostäder 14,7-9,1 (-8,1) -6,4 (-3,5) 2,3 (2,2) Lagerinvesteringar 2/ 0,5-1,1 (-0,8) 0,0 (-0,2) 0,0 (0,0) Export av varor och tjänster 7,0 0,7 (0,0) 0,9 (1,0) 4,2 (4,0) Import av varor och tjänster 6,3-0,1 (-0,6) 1,2 (1,5) 4,7 (4,7) BNP 3,7 0,8 (0,8) 1,6 (1,1) 2,6 (2,5) BNP, kalenderkorrigerad 3,7 1,2 (1,1) 1,6 (1,1) 2,7 (2,6) Inhemsk slutlig användning 2/ 2,5 1,6 (1,4) 1,6 (1,4) 2,5 (2,5) Nettoexport 2/ 0,7 0,4 (0,3) -0,1 (-0,1) 0,0 (0,0) Källor: SCB och Sw edbank. 1/ Siffrorna från vår förra prognos i oktober 2012 finns inom parentes. 2/ Bidrag till BNP-tillväxten. 2012 1/ 2013 P 1/ 2014 P 1/ 7

Nycketal 1/ 2011 2012 2013P 2014P Sverige Sverige: Nyckeltal Real BNP (kalenderkorrigerad) 3,7 1,2 1,6 2,7 Industriproduktion 6,7-3,2-1,8 3,7 KPI, årsgenomsnitt 3,0 0,9 0,3 1,8 KPI, dec-dec 2,3-0,1 0,9 2,3 KPIF, årsgenomsnitt 2/ 1,4 1,0 1,1 1,5 KPIF, dec-dec 2/ 0,5 1,0 1,2 1,5 Arbetskraften 1,4 0,8 0,7 0,4 Arbetslöshet, % av arbetskraften 7,8 8,0 8,3 8,2 Antalet sysselsatta 2,3 0,6 0,4 0,4 Nominella timlöner, totalt 2,4 2,9 2,9 3,0 Nominella timlöner, industri 2,5 3,9 2,8 2,9 Hushållens sparkvot, % av disponibelinkomsten 10,2 11,4 11,1 10,1 Real disponibelinkomst 3,5 2,5 2,6 1,8 Bytesbalans, % av BNP 7,3 7,0 6,5 6,1 Finansiellt sparande i offentlig sektor, % av BNP 0,0-0,7-1,1-1,0 Offentliga sektorns skuld (Maastricht), % av BNP 38,4 38,2 38,7 38,0 Källor: SCB och Sw edbank 1/ Å rlig pro centuell fö rändring o m inte annat anges 2/ Ko nsumentprisindex med fasta ränto r 8

Sverige Ränte- och valutaantagande Utfall Prognos 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 8 apr 30 jun 31 dec 30 jun 31 dec Räntor Svensk reporänta 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,25 1,75 10 årig statsobligationsränta 1,66 2,05 2,50 3,15 3,30 Valutor EUR/SEK 8,35 8,20 8,15 8,30 8,30 USD/SEK 6,42 6,40 6,60 6,90 6,65 KIX (SEK) 101,0 100,7 101,2 103,9 103,3 Källor: Reuters Ecow in och Sw edbank 9

Sverige Bidrag till tillväxten (procentenheter) 8 6 4 2 6.5 3.7 0.8 1.6 2.6 Offentlig konsumtion Nettoexport Lager 0 Investeringar -2-4 Hushållens konsumtion BNP -6-8 -5.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Källor: SCB och Swedbank. 10

Sverige Sysselsättningsgraden (% av befolkningen, 20-64 år, 4k ma) 82,0 80,0 78,0 76,0 74,0 72,0 70,0 68,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sverige Norge Holland Tyskland Danmark Österrike Finland Storbritannien Frankrike Källa: Eurostat 11

Sverige Hushållens balansräkning (% av disponibelinkomsten) 250% 200% 150% Finansiell nettoförmögehetskvot Skuldkvot 100% 50% Förmögenhetskvot, exkl. bostadsrätter och kollektivt försäkringssparande 0% 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Källa: SCB 12

Sverige Inflation, reporäntan och växelkursen 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 KPI (årl.) KPIF (årl.) Repo-ränta Kronan (KIX, hs) Källor: Riksbanken, SCB och Swedbank. 13

Sverige Utgifter och antal personer inom välfärdsprogram 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 600 500 400 300 Ohälsa - utgifter (% av BNP) Arbetsmarknads -program (% av BNP) 1,5 1,0 200 Arbetsmarknads -program ('000; hs) 0,5 0,0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 100 0 Sjuk- och aktivititetsersättning ('000; hs) Källor: SCB, NIER och Försäkringskassan. 14

Estonia Swedbank's GDP forecast Changes in volume, % 2011 Household consumption 3.5 4.5 (4.5) 3.5 (3.5) 3.9 (4.1) General government consumption 1.4 4.0 (3.0) 1.3 (1.3) 1.5 (2.0) Gross fixed capital formation 25.9 20.9 (22.9) 4.8 (1.7) 6.3 (2.7) Changes in inventories* 2.1-0.3 (-0.2) 1.1 (-1.5) 0.0 (0.1) Exports of goods and services 23.4 5.6 (5.8) 4.7 (4.9) 6.2 (6.2) Imports of goods and services 25.0 9.1 (10.4) 6.1 (6.2) 6.2 (4.9) GDP 8.3 3.2 (3.0) 3.3 (3.1) 4.2 (4.5) Domestic demand (excl. inventories)* 9.8 7.3 (6.6) 3.4 (2.8) 4.1 (3.3) Net export* 0.1-2.9 (-3.8) -1.2 (-1.2) 0.0 (1.3) Sources: Statistics Estonia and Sw edbank projections Our previous forecast is given in parentheses *contribution to GDP growth 2012 2013f 2014f 15

Estonia Key economic indicators, 2010-2014 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Real GDP, % 8.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 Nominal GDP, billion euros 16.0 17.0 18.1 19.4 Consumer prices (average) 5.0 3.9 3.3 2.9 Unemployment rate, % 12.5 10.2 9.5 8.9 Real gross monthly w age 0.4 1.9 3.0 3.6 Exports of goods and services (nominal) 28.3 7.7 7.2 9.7 Imports of goods and services (nominal) 34.1 11.9 7.7 9.5 Balance of goods and services, % of GDP 6.4 2.3 1.7 1.8 Current account balance, % of GDP 2.1-1.2-2.5-2.7 Current and capital account balance, % of GDP 6.3 2.2 0.8 0.4 FDI inflow, % of GDP 1.2 6.7 6.1 6.2 Gross external debt, % of GDP 97.1 98 95 91.3 General government budget balance, % of GDP 1.2-0.3-0.5-0.1 General government debt, % of GDP 6.2 10.1 10.2 9.9 Sources: Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia and Sw edbank projections 16

Estonia Contributions to GDP growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Inventories Net exports Investments Government Households GDP -20% -25% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Sources: Statistics Estonia, Swedbank forecast 17

Estonia Labour market indicators 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Employment, yoy growth Unemployment rate -5% -10% -15% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: SE 18

Estonia Contributions to investment growth, pp 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 Households Government Financial corp. Enterprises Total growth, % -40-50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: BoE 19

Estonia Contributions to CPI annual growth 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Other Housing Transport Food CPI -2% -4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: SE 20

Latvia Latvia: Key Economic Indicators, 2011-2014 1/ 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Real GDP 5.5 5.6 4.3 5.0 Real GDP, sw da 5.2 5.4 4.6 5.0 Nominal GDP, billion euro 20.3 22.1 23.5 25.9 Consumer prices 4.4 2.3 1.1 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 2/ 16.2 14.9 13.5 11.5 Real net monthly w age 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.9 Exports of goods and services (nominal) 22.4 13.1 8.9 11.8 Imports of goods and services (nominal) 29.4 10.5 11.0 12.9 Balance of goods and services, % of GDP -4.3-3.0-4.4-5.0 Current account balance, % of GDP -2.2-1.7-2.8-3.8 Current and capital account balance, % of GDP 0.0 1.3 0.5-1.7 FDI inflow, % of GDP 5.1 3.5 3.5 3.8 Gross external debt, % of GDP 145 136 132 124 General government budget balance, % of GDP -3.4-1.5-1.0-0.5 General government debt, % of GDP 42.2 40.8 43.0 40.0 Sources: CSBL and Sw edbank. 1/ Annual percentage growth, unless otherwise stated. 2/ According to Labour f orce Surv ey. 3/ According to Maastricht criterion. 21

Swedbank's GDP forecast Latvia Changes in v olume, % 2011 Household consumption 4.8 5.4 (5.2) 4.1 (3.8) 4.5 (4.5) Government consumption 1.1-0.2 (-4.0) 1.6 (1.1) 2.0 (0.9) Gross fixed capital formation 27.9 12.3 (12.1) 9.0 (9.0) 11.0 (11.0) Inventories 2/ 2.6-3.2 (-1.8) 1.8 (0.5) 0.3 (0.4) Exports of goods and services 12.7 7.1 (6.6) 4.5 (4.0) 6.5 (6.4) Imports of goods and services 22.7 3.1 (3.8) 8.6 (5.9) 8.0 (8.0) GDP 5.5 5.6 (5.4) 4.3 (4.1) 5.0 (5.0) Domestic demand 2/ 9.2 6.8 (6.0) 5.4 (5.2) 6.4 (6.3) Net exports 2/ -6.3 2.0 (1.2) -3.0 (-1.6) -1.7 (-1.7) Sources: CSBL and Sw edbank. 1/ Our January 2013 f orecast is giv en in parentheses. 2/ Contribution to GDP growth. Domestic demand is net of inv entoriies 2012 2013f 1 2014f 1 22

Latvia Annual consumer price inflation and output gap, % 20 15 Output gap 10 Headline inflation 5 0-5 -10 Core inflation (excl.energy and unprocessed food) Inflation at constant tax rates -15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: Eurostat, EC (AMECO). 23

Latvia Annual growth of GDP and its components and economic sentiment 30 120 GDP, % 20 110 10 100 Domestic demand (incl. inventories), % 0 90 Exports, % -10 80-20 70 Economic sentiment, points (rs) -30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 60 Source: CSBL. 24

Latvia Contribution to annual growth of nonfinancial investment (current prices), percentage points 80 16 Other 60 40 20 12 8 4 Building and structures Machinery and equipment 0 0 Total growth, % -20-40 -4-8 Real average interest rates for corporates, % (rs)* -60 2009 2010 2011 2012-12 * New loans in EUR, CPI deflated (ex-post) Source: CSBL. 25

Latvia Exports, manufacturing and cost competiveness (2007=100, sa) 130 120 80 88 Export volumes 110 100 90 80 96 104 112 Manufacturing volumes Real unit labour costs (reversed rs, i.e., a rise is a gain in competitiveness) 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 120 Sources: Reuters EcoWin, CSBL 26

Lithuania Key Economic Indicators, 2010-2014 1/ 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Real GDP 5.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 Nominal GDP, billion euro 30.8 32.8 34.8 37.3 Consumer prices 4.1 3.1 2.5 3.4 Unemployment rate, % 2/ 15.3 13.2 11.5 10.0 Real net monthly w age -1.3 1.1 2.0 2.5 Exports of goods and services (nominal) 27.5 15.8 6.7 10.5 Imports of goods and services (nominal) 28.2 11.2 7.5 12.0 Balance of goods and services, % of GDP -2.6 0.6-0.1-1.3 Current account balance, % of GDP -3.7-0.5-0.9-2.3 Current and capital account balance, % of GDP -1.3 1.7 1.1-0.1 FDI inflow, % of GDP 3.4 2.0 3.5 3.8 Gross external debt, % of GDP 77.8 75.6 73.6 70.7 General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ -5.5-2.9-2.5-2.0 General government debt, % of GDP 38.5 40.7 39.1 37.9 Sources: Statistics Lithuania and Sw edbank. 1/ Annual percentage growth, unless otherwise stated. 2/ According to Labour f orce surv ey. 3/ According to Maastricht criterion. 27

Lithuania Swedbank's GDP forecast Changes in v olume, % 2011 2012e 2013f 1 2014f 1 Household consumption 6.4 4.7 (4.0) 3.3 (3.0) 3.8 (3.5) Government consumption 0.5 0.7 (0.0) 1.0 (1.0) 1.5 (2.0) Gross fixed capital formation 18.3-2.5 (3.0) 8.0 (10.0) 8.0 (8.0) Inventories 2/ -1.8-3.3 (-1.0) 0.8 (0.3) 0.4 (-0.3) Export of goods and services 14.1 11.2 (6.5) 4.0 (4.0) 6.5 (6.5) Import of goods and services 13.7 5.6 (5.0) 5.0 (4.5) 7.5 (6.5) GDP 5.9 3.6 (3.3) 4.0 (4.0) 4.0 (4.0) Domestic demand (excl. inventories) 2/ 7.4 2.5 (3.1) 3.8 (4.1) 4.2 (4.2) Net exports 2/ 0.3 4.3 (1.2) -0.6 (-0.3) -0.5 (0.1) Sources: Statistics Lithuania and Sw edbank. 1/ Our January 2013 f orecast is giv en in parentheses. 2/ Contribution to GDP growth. Domestic demand is net of inv entories. 28

Lithuania Contributions to GDP growth, pp 8,0 6,0 5,9 Net export 4,0 3,6 4,0 4,0 Stockbuilding 2,0 1,5 Investment (excl. inventories) Government consumption 0,0 Household consumption -2,0 GDP growth -4,0 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Sources: Statistics Lithuania and Swedbank. 29

Lithuania Average annual inflation and Maastricht criterion 4,5% Forecast 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% Maastricht criterion Average annual inflation 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Eurostat, Swedbank 30

Lithuania Domestic credit growth, yoy, % 20 15 10 5 0 Non-financial corporations Households -5-10 -15 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bank of Lithuania 31

Lithuania Registered unemployment and vacancies 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 2010 2011* 2012* 2013 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Registered unemployment, % Registered vacancies thous. (rs) * the number of working age population is updated according to census results Source: Lithuanian Labour exchange 32

Lithuania Conditional net wage growth in 2014, % 8,0% 7,5% 7,6% 7,0% 6,5% 6,6% 6,0% 5,9% 5,5% 5,3% 5,0% Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 470 Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 625 Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 780 Max amount of taxexempt income LTL 1000 Source: Swedbank 33

Contact information Economic Research Department Sweden Cecilia Hermansson +46 8 5859 7720 cecilia.hermansson@swedbank.se Group Chief Economist Chief Economist, Sweden Magnus Alvesson +46 8 5859 3341 magnus.alvesson@swedbank.se Head of Economic Forecasting Jörgen Kennemar +46 8 5859 7730 jorgen.kennemar@swedbank.se Senior Economist Anna Ibegbulem +46 8 5859 7740 anna.ibegbulem@swedbank.se Assistant Estonia Kristjan Tamla +3728887952 kristjan.tamla@swedbank.ee Acting Chief Economist, Estonia Teele Reivik +372 888 7925 teele.reivik@swedbank.ee Economist Latvia Mārtiņš Kazāks +371 67 445 859 martins.kazaks@swedbank.lv Deputy Group Chief Economist Chief Economist, Latvia Lija Strašuna +371 67 445 875 lija.strasuna@swedbank.lv Senior Economist Kristilla Skrūzkalne +37167445844 kristilla.skruzkalne@swedbank.lv Economist Lithuania Nerijus Mačiulis +370 5 258 2237 nerijus.maciulis@swedbank.lt Chief Economist, Lithuania Vaiva Šečkutė +370 5 258 2156 vaiva.seckute@swedbank.lt Senior Economist Laura Galdikienė +370 5 258 2275 laura.galdikiene@swedbank.lt Economist 34

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