Investeringar i svensk och finsk skogsindustri Oskar Lindström, Analytiker, Danske Bank Markets 4 november 2015 Investment Research
Oskar Lindström Aktieanalytiker Skog Stål & gruvor Investmentbolag Danske Bank Markets 8 år SCA 10 år 2
Danske Bank Markets bevakning av noterade bolag inom den nordiska skogsindustrin 3
Mina slutsatser 1. Signifikant utbyggnad av massakapaciteten i Sverige och Finland 2. Signifikant ökning av vedförbrukningen i regionen 3. Risk för global överkapacitet på långfiber om några år 4
Våg av investeringar i den svenska och finska skogsindustrin Drygt SEK30miljarder i investeringar i svensk och finsk skogsindustri 2015-2018 Ny massakapacitet: Beslutad 1,8 milj årston Projekt/under utredning 1,7 milj årston Ny förpackningskapacitet: Beslutad 1,35 milj årston Projekt 0,5 milj årston varav i Sverige troligen Massa 1,0 milj årston Förpackningar 1,1 milj årston 5
Nuvarande planer kommer att få en signifikant effekt på svensk förpacknings- och massaproduktion Massaproduktion kommer att öka med drygt 1milj ton per år Kartongproduktion kommer att öka med 1 milj ton per år Vi räknar med att produktionen av tryckpapper kommer att fortsätta att sjunka med 5% per år 6
Effekter på vedförbrukningen från ökad massaproduktion SCA, Östrand Holmen, Iggesund Rottneros, Vallvik Rottneros Unknown, Kemijärvi Billerud, Rockhammar Metsä, Äänekoski Finnpulp, Kuopio UPM, Kymi Beräknad ökning av efterfrågan* Sverige 4,85 milj m 3 fub Motsvarar 15% av avverkningen av massaved i Sverige 2013 Finland 4,7 milj m 3 fub Motsvarar 15% av avverkning av massaved i Finland 2014 Potentiellt ytterligare 8 milj m 3 fub i Finland Södra, Värö Södra, Mönsterås * baserat på 5 m 3 fub per ton kemisk massa Södra, Mörrum 7
Risk för överkapacitet på långfibermassa på några års sikt 3 milj årston i ny långfibermassakapacitet i pipeline globalt Motsvarar ökning om 10% på fyra år Historiskt har efterfrågan på långfibermassa vuxit med omkring hälften av detta (1,4% per år) Ser risk för överkapacitet efter 2017 med behov för betydande nedläggningar globalt 8
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