Framtidens drivmedel Ett försök att bena upp utmaningar och möjligheter med olika alternativa bränslen. Vilka är alternativen? Vad kan sjöfartsektorn göra? Maria Grahn Fysisk Resursteori, Institutionen för Energi och Miljö, Chalmers 2014-09-09
Utsläppen av koldioxid från vägtransportsektorn kan minskas genom: CO 2 emissions Energy demand CO 2 emission per energy unit Energy use per vkm Total vkm driven 1. Energieffektivare fordon (ex. el-hybrider, energisnålare fordon) 2. Val av energieffektivare trafikslag (ex. tåg vs flyg, cykel/kollektivtrafik vs bil) 3. Energisnålare körsätt (eco-driving) 4. Öka antalet passagerare resp mängd gods per fordon 5. En transportsnål bebyggelsestruktur 6. Bryta sambandet mellan transportbehov och ekonomisk tillväxt 7. Fortsatt introduktion av drivmedel med låga CO 2 -utsläpp
Different fuels and vehicle technology options in different transport modes? Fossil (oil, natural gas, coal) Liquid fuels (petro, methanol, ethanol, biodiesel etc) ICEV, HEV (internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids) Aviation Shipping Biomass Solar, wind etc Electricity Methane (biogas, synthetic methane, nat. gas) Hydrogen FCV (fuel cell vehicles) BEV, PHEV (battery electric vehicles) Inductive or conductive electric Road (short) (cars, buses, distribution trucks) Road (long) (long-distance trucks) Train ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY CARRIERS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TRANSPORT MODES
Biodrivmedel kan användas i alla transportslag Fossil (oil, natural gas, coal) Liquid fuels (petro, methanol, ethanol, biodiesel etc) ICEV, HEV (internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids) Aviation Shipping Biomass Solar, wind etc Electricity Methane (biogas, synthetic methane, nat. gas) Hydrogen FCV (fuel cell vehicles) BEV, PHEV (battery electric vehicles) Inductive or conductive electric Road (short) (cars, buses, distribution trucks) Road (long) (long-distance trucks) Train ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY CARRIERS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TRANSPORT MODES
Alternativa drivmedel från biomassa Maria Grahn Cellulosa & Lignin Skog, skogsplantage, svartlut Stärkelse Spannmål, vete, korn, majs mm Socker Olja Raps, solrosfrön Restflöden från skogsbruk, jordbruk och övr. samhället Sågspån, halm, sopor, slam, slakteriavfall, gödsel BIOMASSA Förbränning Förgasning Syntesgas bildas Rötning Biogas bildas Jäsning av socker Pressning och esterisering Vätebehandling OMVANDLINGSPROCESSER Elektricitet Vätgas Fischer-Tropsch bränslen DME (Dimetyleter) Metanol Metan Etanol FAME HVO ENERGIBÄRARE
Elektrobränslen kan också användas i alla transportslag - Biomass is limited, up-scaling may challenge biodiversity and food prices. - Aviation, shipping and long-distance road transport may have difficulties using fuel cells and batteries. - Electrofuels may be an attractive option (no need for advanced vehicles technologies, no major changes to infrastructure and feasible for aviation and shipping that have very few other options) Fossil (oil, natural gas, coal) Liquid fuels (petro, methanol, ethanol, biodiesel etc) ICEV, HEV (internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids) Aviation Shipping Biomass Solar, wind etc Electricity Methane (biogas, synthetic methane, nat. gas) Hydrogen FCV (fuel cell vehicles) BEV, PHEV (battery electric vehicles) Inductive or conductive electric Road (short) (cars, buses, distribution trucks) Road (long) (long-distance trucks) Train ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY CARRIERS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TRANSPORT MODES
Elektrobränslen (Electrofuels) Sometimes also called: sun-fuels power-to-gas, synthetic natural gas (SNG), e-gas synthetic fuels from carbon dioxide and water Carbon recycling fuels
Production of Electrofuels Water (H 2 O) Power Electrolysis Hydrogen (H 2 ) CO 2 from air and seawater H 2 CO 2 from combustion Electrofuels Sabatier reactor CO 2 Methane (CH 4 ) Methanol (CH 3 OH) DME (CH 3 OCH 3 ) Ethanol (C 2 H 5 OH) Biofuel production Biofuels Biomass (C 6 H 10 O 5 ) All biofuel production generates waste CO 2
Comparison most discussed alternatives with potential to lower the CO 2 -emission Production cost Distribution and storage cost Vehicle/ ship technology cost Comments Biofuels Low Low Low Production capacity limited by land and water, large scale use imposes a risk of increased food prices and may challenge biodiversity. Conventional natural gas Batteries/ PHEVs Hydrogen/ fuel cells Electrofuel SNG Electrofuel methanol Low Medium Medium A fossil fuel, contributes to global warming. Medium High High May not be a feasible solution for aviation, shipping and long-distance road transport. Medium High High May not be a feasible solution for aviation, shipping and long-distance road transport. High Medium Medium Can be blended in existing natural gas and biogas infrastructure. High Low Low Can be blended in existing gasoline infrastructure. Methanol is toxic. Large potential but costly production. Large potential but costly storage and use. Biofuels best, but can never dominate as global transportation fuel option.
Energy system model GET Linearly programmed energy systems cost-minimizing model Generates the fuel and technology mix that meets the demand (subject to the constraints) at lowest global energy system cost Import and export of with other regions Carbon cycle model Maria Grahn Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Region Biomass, coal, natural gas, oil, uranium BTL, CTL/GTL, H 2 CO 2 Primary energy supply: Biomass Coal Hydro Natural gas Nuclear Oil Solar Wind Elec Elec Heat Energy conversion H 2 Elec, Petro, NG, BTL, CTL/GTL, H 2 H 2 Petro, Air fuel CO 2 Fuel oil, LNG, biofuels, fossil methanol, H 2 CO 2 storage from fossil fuels and biomass Water transportation demand Electricity demand Heat demand Road transportation demand Air transportation demand Short sea Deep sea Container
Cost-effective fuel choices for shipping Results from 10 regions and 3 ship categories added together
Uncertainties tested Parameter Base case Minimum Maximum Oil resources (EJ) 12,000 6,000 24,000 Natural gas resources (EJ) 11,000 5,500 22,000 Biomass supply (EJ/yr) 200 100 400 LNG tank cost (USD/GJ) a 110 (80) 110 (80) 330 (250) Hydrogen tank (USD/GJ) a, b 300 (225) 220 (160) 600 (450) Fuel cell cost (USD/kW) 4000 2000 6700 LNG infrastructure (USD/kW 1600 1200 1600 Fossil methanol infra (USD/kW) 200 100 400 Biofuel infrastructure (USD/kW) c 600 200 600 Methane leakage (wt%) 2 0 4 Max share of solid biomass in heat (%) 75 50 80 Concentrating solar power (USD/kW) 4000 3500 7000 LNG investment cost (USD/kW) 300 150 400 a Numbers are for short sea ships, numbers in parenthesis is for deep sea and container ships. b Will never be lower than the liquefied natural gas tank cost. c Will never be lower than the infrastructure cost for fossil methanol. Acronyms used: liquefied natural gas (LNG). Maria Grahn
Sensitivity analysis 700 Monte Carlo runs assuming that carbon capture and storage is a large scale technology Low oil supply potential: high probability for NGbased fuels year 2050 500 ppm: Biomass-based fuels seldom over 15% of fuel mix in 2050 High oil supply potential: Depending on assumptions made marine fuels could either be oil- or NG-based, year 2050
Generella insikter framtida drivmedel Tre huvudgrupper alternativa drivmedel har potential att komma ner i nästan nollutsläpp: kolbaserade bränslen (biodrivmedel/ elektrobränslen), el, vätgas Några dilemman. Biodrivmedel finns redan på marknaden, relativt billigt alternativ, möjligt att producera i de flesta länder, kan blandas i befintlig infrastruktur och kan efter små justeringar användas i dagens fordon. men Storskalig användning av biodrivmedel begränsas av mark- och vattentillgång samt dras med risken för stigande matpriser och tveksamt hållbara odlingssätt men Om varken vätgas-bränsleceller eller el-batterier blir storskaligt tillgängliga (kanske tekniska problem vi ej ser idag) behövs icke-fossila kolbaserade drivmedel (biodrivmedel eller elektrobränslen) för att kunna nå nära noll-utsläpp i transportsektorn. Vilka drivmedel och fordonstekniker som kommer att dominera i framtiden är en öppen fråga. Troligen flera parallella lösningar. Vänta inte på den enda rätta lösningen. Viktigt! CO 2 kan minskas med åtgärder för minskat transportbehov och mer energisnåla fordon (oavsett drivmedel).