Monthly News Summary 2011 November Politics According to Hamzah Mansour, Secretary General of the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the group is reconsidering whether it will boycott the municipal elections. The reversed position occurred after the government decided to delay the elections from December this year to 2012. However, Mansour also stated in an interview that the government had many more steps to take before IAF surely would decide to participate or not; The point isn t to delay the elections, the point is to amend the law to ensure an even playing field for political parties. A statement was issued by the opposition parties higher coordination committee on 2 nd of November, in which they called for a proportional electoral system and also praised the government s decision to postpone the municipal elections. A seminar was organised on 8 th of November by the University of Jordan s faculty of international studies/human rights and human development programme, as well as the Legal Aid Organisation. Mohammad Masalha, dean of the faculty, stated that Jordan s constitutional amendments were important but not an end to the political reform process. Masalha further stressed the importance of raising the public s awareness of their constitutional rights so they can defend and enforce the Constitution. In a statement on 9 th of November, Prime Minister Awn Khasawneh said that it was a constitutional and political mistake to expel leaders of Hamas out of Jordan because many Hamas members are Jordanians and the Constitution prevents expelling any citizen. There will be no more rigged elections in the Kingdom. The country will not tolerate any more manipulation in any future elections, stated Prime Minister Awn Khasawneh on 9 th of November and expressed that the government was committed to guarantee a free and transparent electoral system. William Hague, British Foreign Secretary, met King Abdullah on 11 th of November to discuss bilateral and regional issues. The parties also discussed the Middle East Peace Process and the establishment of an independent Palestine. According to a statement issued on 12 th of November by Rakan Majali, Minister of State for Media Affairs and Communications Spokesperson, the government will hold talks with Khaled Mishaal, Hamas leader, in Amman. next week. Meanwhile, Jordan s Muslim Brotherhood declared the step as positive but stated that the movement had nothing to do with the development. 1
According to a statement issued on the 13 th of November by Mahir Abul Samin, Minister of Municipal Affairs, the previous government s decisions to increase the number of municipalities with 123 had no sound legal ground. Abul Samin stated that the Municipalities Law will be reviewed and that the process of increasing municipalities will stop for now. The minister also said that the government currently examines if municipal elections can be held in March 2012. Islamic Action Front called on the government to withdraw Jordan s ambassador from Syria on Sunday 13 th of November, and said that it was in the interest of Jordan and the majority of Jordanians. In an interview with BBC on the 14 th of November, King Abdullah stated that Bashar Assad, Syria s president, should initiate a new phase of political life and said that the King himself would have stepped down if he was in Assad s shoes. The Islamic Action Front has decided to reinitiate demonstrations after one month s break and will hit to the streets on 18 th of November under the slogan Friday of Insistence, according to Secretary General Hamzah Mansour. Rakan Majali, Minister of State for Media Affairs and Communications and Government Spokesperson, said on the 15 th of November that the government had embarked on dialogue with the political powers including opposition groups. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Action Front stated in an interview that the movement had not met with the premier but also said that they were not in a hurry to engage in dialogue with the officials yet. During an interview in London on the 15 th of November, King Abdullah said that Jordan was preparing for elections and further expressed that the country was heading in the direction of a constitutional monarchy. According to the King, Jordan s priority is to establish political parties representing left, right and centre as quickly as possible to lead to a government elected by the people. According to Rakan Majali, Minister of State for Media Affairs and Communications and Government Spokesperson, around 85 jihadist salafists will be released from prisons. The accused Jordanians have been without trial since April this year when a protest resulted in clashes between police and salafists. Majali denied charges that the government was pressurised by different groups and tribal leaders to release them. In a London-held speech on the 15 th of November, King Abdullah stated that the Arab Spring represented opportunities and growth and said that constitutional amendments in Jordan were moving the country on its way to the future. The government decided on Thursday 17 th of November to halt all registration processes for next year s municipal elections in order to overcome the chaotic atmosphere that followed the establishment of new municipalities. This according to a statement by Mahir Abul Samin, Minister of Municipal Affairs. 2
The Islamist movement in Jordan stated in a conference titled Islamists and Governance that it is interested in political power. However, according to Zaki Bani Rsheid, head of the Islamic Action Front politburo, constitutional changes have so far not met the minimum requirements to allow for the Islamists participation in the government. Speakers also said that Islamist movements have the flexibility to adjust and evolve according to the requirements of the international community without jeopardising religious principles. Secretary General of the Islamic Action Front (IAF), Hamzah Mansour, stated on 21 st of November that Islamists in Jordan will monitor the progress of the Egyptian Islamists in the upcoming elections. Mansour further said that IAF does not take orders from its mother organisation in Egypt, and then declared that they also would focus on political reform and the combating of corruption. During a meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on the 21 st of November, King Abdullah declared Jordan s support for the unity of the Palestinian people and efforts to realise national reconciliation that paves the way for a unified Palestinian stance. Economy and Trade Foreign economic assistance to Jordan will reach 2,8 billion US dollar in 2011, according to Jafar Hassan, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation. Budget support grants will reach 1,7 billion US dollar, in which EU and US allocate 300 million US dollar and Saudi Arabia the rest. Jordan will host the 2011 Global Entrepreneurship Week to spread more awareness about the importance of entrepreneurship, according to Heba Othman, project officer at the Queen Rania Centre for Entrepreneurship. The aim with the event is to support young entrepreneurs in Jordan. Several corruption cases were referred to the prosecutor general by the Anti- Corruption Commission on 14 th of November. The cases concern companies, boards of directors or employees who committed financial, administrative or legal breaches that require intervention to protect the rights of others. Officials from the Poverty Pockets Empowerment Project declared on Tuesday 15 th of November that a package of comprehensive assistance was to be provided to seven poverty areas in Jordan. The project, which will benefit 5 544 families and which is being implemented by the Jordanian Hashemite Fund for Human Development, aims at improving economic and social conditions of the local communities, in order to help them break free from the cycle of poverty. 3
Jordan and the United Kingdom agreed on the 15 th of November to bolster economic cooperation. A joint statement was issued after King Abdullah met with David Cameron, British Prime Minister, in which it stated that the countries are to embark on a strategic economic dialogue that also will involve trade exchange, employment-generating and value-adding investments and tourism. During a meeting on 19 th of November, Minister of Labour Maher Wakid stated that the ministry referred a decision to raise the minimum wage to the cabinet, and explained that there must be a balance between wages and costs of living. The greatest challenge facing Jordanian women is economic empowerment, according to findings in the National Report 2011: Progress of Jordanian Women toward Justice, Participation and Equality. The report, which is issued by the Jordanian National Commission for Women, reveals that 70 % of women are dependent. Moreover, inequality in legal protection and violence against women are other major impediments with regards to women s progress in Jordan. According to the ICT Association of Jordan, IT companies aim to increase their exports to the Palestinian territories to 20 million US dollar by 2015. The export to the Palestinian territories in 2010 was worth 9 million US dollar. The rating company, Standard & Poor s, on 23 rd of November lowered Jordan s long-term sovereign credit rating. The rating agency expressed concerns about the Jordanian economy and political situation. Samih Bino, President of the Anti-Corruption Commission, met with the Dutch Ambassador to Jordan on 28 th of November to discuss means to boost bilateral cooperation and expertise exchange in the field of combating corruption. A blast in the Sinai on the 28 th of November cut off Jordan s supply of Egyptian gas. The explosion was the ninth act of sabotage on the Arab Gas Pipeline in November and casts doubt over the reliability of Egyptian gas supplies. Human Rights Spokesperson for the Ministry of Social Development, Fawaz Ratrout, said on the 19 th of November during the World Day for the Prevention of Child Abuse that the government was dedicated to protecting children s rights and providing them with protection when they become victims of family or social violence. According to Ratrout, the highest rates of violence against children occur among low-income families and the majority of victims are girls. 4
An exhibition, organised by the National Centre for Human Rights, the Jordan Photography Society and the Canada Fund for Local Initiatives, marked the Universal Children s Day on the 20 th of November. The exhibition emphasised children s right to play, which stimulates their skills and development. During a meeting with UN Special Rapporteur Rashida Manjoo on 22 nd of November, Princess Basma emphasised the importance of safeguarding the wellbeing of women in Jordan. Meanwhile, Manjoo praised the government s efforts in combating violence against women but underlined that the biggest challenge was to ensure that preventive measures were in place to protect women. Environment A master s programme in environment engineering and climate change is soon to be established at the University of Jordan. The programme will be funded by the EU and assisted by universities from Norway, Germany and Portugal. Conservationists said on 15 th of November that eighty kilogrammes of waste had been brought up from the Gulf of Aqaba as part of a cleaning campaign organised by the Aqaba Marine Park and in cooperation with dive centres. A government official stated on the 27 th of November that the Ministry of Environment had embarked on a waste sorting and recycling project at public agencies. According to Yaseen Khayyat, Minister of Environment, the project seeks to promote a culture of recycling at the source and encourage sound and safe management of waste which can be used after recycling for providing materials for local industries and investments ". Protests and Demonstrations A demonstration was arranged by youths and leftists in downtown Amman on 4 th of November to protest against security services hold on public life and the agencies interference in political life. Demonstrations were held by Syrians in front of the Syrian embassy in Amman on 10 th of November. The protesters demanded the expulsion of the ambassador and chanted anti-regime slogans. The embassy s response was to broadcast Syrian national ballads at loud volume, according to The Jordan Times. 5
Hundreds of artists, journalists, MPs and other activists protested against an attack on Al Ghad Daily at the Jordan Press Association on 12 th of November. Rakan Majali, Minister of State for Media Affairs and Communications and Government Spokesperson, stated that the attack was an assault on the state and the rule of law and promised to bring the perpetrators to justice. Several dozens of pro-reform activists took to the street in a nationwide day of protests on 11 th of November under the slogan Victory for the Homeland. No protests were held in Amman, except from a small rally by a group of people who chanted our souls, our blood, we sacrifice for you, Abu Hussein and who dismissed calls for political reform as treasonous. Around 20 jihadist salafist protested on 13 th of November outside of the Royal Court and demanded the release of jihadist salafist prisoners. Moreover, they also declared that salafist from now on would join the pro-reform movement in demonstrations. The announcement comes in light of the jihadist movement s recent declaration that they will participate in politics and renounce violence. The Muslim Brotherhood and 1200 supporters took to the streets in Amman on 18 th of November after having been absent during protests for one month. According to the Islamic Action Front, the Islamists are frustrated about the lack of political reform on behalf of the government. The demonstrators called for elected governments, constitutional amendments, regime reform, and the dissolution of the State Security Court. They also demanded the release of jihadist salafists who have been imprisoned without trial for seven months. Riots erupted on 20 th of November in Ramtha after the results of an autopsy on Najem Azaizeh was released. Azaizeh died in November while in police custody and authorities argue that he had committed suicide but residents of Ramtha do not believe in the report, arguing instead that Azaizeh died of police brutality. Dozens of Jordanians and Syrians protested in front of the Syrian Embassy on 24 th of November and called for the expulsion of the Syrian ambassador. Demonstrators waved flags and chanted slogans against the regime in Damascus. More than 7 000 people protested in support of Jerusalem in the Jordan Valley on 25 th of November in a demonstration organised by the Islamist movement. Islamist speakers called for the liberation of Jerusalem and argued that the Palestinian cause and the event constituted an extension of the Arab Spring. Supporters of the Islamist movement protested outside of the Prime Ministry on 28 th of November and called for the release of political prisoners and members of the jihadist salafist movement. The Islamic Action Front backed the demonstration whereas the salafist movement did not participate in the protests. 6
Others SIDA (the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency) has signed a grant agreement with ARIJ (Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism) worth 3 million US dollar and is as such ARIJ s main donor. The aim of the support is to consolidate the mission of ARIJ in spreading the culture of investigative journalism in newsrooms and among independent journalists in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Palestine, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain and Tunisia. A fire erupted on a passengers ferry outside of Aqaba on Thursday 3 rd of November and one Jordanian died and around 30 others were injured as a result. Hussein Soub, director general of the Arab Bridge Maritime Company, stated that a committee had been established to determine the cause of the fire. Former minister and senator Leila Sharaf was awarded with the Legion of Honour medal on Wednesday 16 th of November by Corrine Breuze, French Ambassador to Jordan. The award recognises Sharaf s courage and her defence of public freedoms, particularly freedom of expression. The fourth Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism conference opened on 25 th of November. It aims at promoting investigative journalism and in-depth reporting and journalists from nine Arab countries participated in the conference. 7
Konferensanteckningar 17/11 Konferens: Understanding the Arab Spring Recommendations for Peaceful Transitions to Democracy Panel I: The Arab Spring and Its Discontents Rana Sabbagh (RS): Den gemensamma nämnaren vad gäller Egyptens och Tunisiens revolutioner var att dessa var spontana, oorganiserade och ledarlösa. Det är kritiskt att få till stånd en makroekonomisk stabilitet efter revolutionerna. Kommer islamister i arabvärlden radikaliseras och motarbeta sekulära arabstater? Hur länge till kommer arabmonarkierna att köpa sig befolkningarnas lojalitet? Kommer dessa regimer, såsom Jordanien, fortsätta stödjas av västvärlden? Rob Malley (RM): Arabrevolutionerna i Egypten och Tunisien var mestadels fredliga men protestvågen blev våldsam när den spred sig till framförallt Libyen och Syrien. Saudiarabien ingrep/ingriper militärt i Bahrain genom att stötta regimen där. Det pågår även ett proxykrig i Syrien. Arabrevolutionerna karaktäriseras av 3 strider: Regimer mot befolkningar Samhällsgrupper mot varandra (klyftor i respektive lands befolkning) Regimer mot regimer Islamisterna är nu inte längre lika isolerade och utfrysta. Den arabiska våren omvandlar/påverkar regionen på 3 sätt: Det finns inget gemensamt referensramverk vad gäller säkerhetspolitik Västlig influens i regionen kommer inte att vara lika omfattande Den nuvarande fredsprocessen (Israel/Palestina) har stagnerat och kan komma att bli betydelselös Joost Hiltermann (JH): Sociala rörelser i arabvärlden spelade en viktig funktion via demonstrationer även innan revolutionerna startade 2011. Sociala orättvisor är en av huvudorsakerna bakom den arabiska våren. Regimer spelar på samhällsklyftor genom att skrämma upp befolkningarna och påvisa att demokratiseringsprocesser kan föra med sig ytterligare konflikter och ökade spänningar mellan olika grupperingar. Det finns en Kalla Kriget-mentalitet mellan Saudiarabien och Iran som huvudaktörer, vilket skapar än mer spänningar i regionen.
Även Qatar är en rival till Saudiarabien och landet har stora ekonomiska tillgångar som kan komma att användas på olika sätt som negativt påverkar händelseutvecklingen i regionen. Turkiet försökte sprida sitt inflytande innan den arabiska våren men har sedan dess balanserat sina intressen genom att söka nya partners i regionen. Var någonstans kommer de gamla regimerna att gå? I vilken riktning kommer de nya regimerna utvecklas? Vilka ekonomiska strategier har proteströrelserna? Är Yemen och Syrien på väg mot inbördeskrig? Bill Lawrence (BL): Alla grundförutsättningar för arabrevolutionerna fanns redan för 10 år sedan. Vad är orsaken till att den arabiska våren startade precis nu? Det krävdes någon form av utlösande faktor. Våg-effekten (demonstration/wave effect) är den enskilt viktigaste aspekten vad gäller den arabiska våren. De utlösande faktorerna var/är specifika för respektive land och skiljer sig åt mellan Tunisien, Egypten och så vidare. Ungdomsbubblor (youth bulges) är en destabiliserande faktor i arabvärlden, hur kan ekonomierna i arabstaterna bäst utvecklas på ett sätt som tar hänsyn till dessa ungdomsgrupper? Frågor & Svar JH: Den Gröna Rörelsen (Green Movement) i Iran slogs ned av regimen under 2009-2010 och oppositionen har inte fått det västerländska stöd som andra oppositionsgrupper i arabvärlden har fått. Det är dock långt ifrån slut och det finns ett verkligt hopp om förändring i Iran. Qatar och Saudiarabien är två repressiva regimer som primärt kan ses som rivaler. Qatar stödjer det Muslimska Brödraskapet medan Saudiarabien stödjer Salafister. Samtidigt är bägge regimer mer kritiska mot republiker än monarkier och länderna har vissa gemensamma intressen (exempelvis vad gäller händelseutvecklingen i Bahrain). RM: Händelseutvecklingen i Saudiarabien karaktäriseras av 3 faktorer: Tävlan/rivalitet mot Iran Rädsla för spridningseffekt (demonstration/wave effect) Befolkningen är oupplyst p.g.a. ett totalt frånvarande civilsamhälle Den första reaktionen i västvärlden vad gäller massprotesterna i arabvärlden utgjordes av tveksamhet. Därefter tog västvärlden ställning genom att stötta händelseutvecklingen. Västvärlden behöver se över sina policys och inte se den arabiska våren som en isolerad process som endast påverkar arabvärlden.
Ekonomisk hopplöshet/förtvivlan är en huvudorsak till arabrevolutionerna och kommer även att bli slutresultatet/konsekvensen av den arabiska våren. Islamister gynnas av den arabiska våren och är redan de mest organiserade och etablerade aktörerna i arabvärlden. Islamisterna börjar officiellt samarbeta med regimerna och vill inte framstå som radikala utåt sett. Västvärlden har nu en regional islamistisk rörelse att ta hänsyn till och samarbeta med. Detta faktum börjar sakteligen accepteras av västvärlden eftersom kompromisser anses nödvändiga då islamisterna är populära. JH: Regimerna utnyttjar samhällsklyftor (exempelvis kopter, muslimer, islamister, palestinier, transjordanier ) i syfte att skrämma befolkningarna. Spänningar mellan olika grupper riskerar att öka ännu mer eftersom regimerna retoriskt utnyttjar den osäkerhet som råder i demokratiseringsprocesserna. Islamistiska kvinnor i Yemen spelar en viktigt roll i proteströrelser. Jordanien kan spela på den legitimitet som kungadömet historiskt har haft ett tag till men landet är inte immunt mot förändringar. Monarkin behöver genomföra genuina förändringar och de facto tillgodose Jordaniernas behov. BL: Feminister i Marocko och Tunisien var regimtrogna, lojala mot de gamla regimerna och elitister. Dessa kvinnor karaktäriseras som regimfeminister och var inte med i proteströrelserna för reformer. Kvinnor som medverkade i demonstrationer kom framförallt från arbetarklasser. RM: Det är endast en tidsfråga innan monarkierna, som hittills har varit relativt immuna mot stora förändringar till skillnad från arabrepublikerna, kommer att börja skaka och innan stora förändringar även sker inom dessa länder. Panel II: Jordan and Its Neighbourhood Saed Karajah (SK): Potentiella utmaningar för Jordanien är: Robert Blecher (RB): Islamisternas relation till Hamas Islamisternas relation till Syriska islamister och rörelserna där Den Palestinska Auktoriteten (PA) saknar övertygelse, vilket utmynnar i att palestinierna inte vet vilka strategier som bör användas och hur PA ska agera. Uppdelningen mellan Hamas och Fatah förstärker osäkerheten som råder vad gäller PA:s självbild och därmed agerande.
Hamas har stärkts av den arabiska våren och förändringar i regionen gör att regimernas relation till organisationen värms upp (exempelvis mellan Jordanien och Hamas). JH: Det vore förödande om Irans kärnkraftsprogram attackerades (av Israel/USA). Det skulle leda till en konflikteskalering i hela regionen. Iran skulle attackera tillbaka och Jordanien har inget intresse av att Iran attackeras. Däremot har Jordanien stora rädslor för Irans kärnkraftsprogram. Frågan är vad GCC (the Gulf Cooperation Council) kommer att kräva av Jordanierna om en stor kris uppstår och Jordanien efterfrågar skydd. Iran har en stor påverkan på kurderna i Irak och på andra aktörer i regionen. Irans utrikespolitiska position är primärt defensiv, och landet har inte lika stor influens på grannländerna som det historiskt sett har haft. Jordanien har generellt sett haft goda relationer med Syrien men behöver nu ta ställning (folket eller regimen) i och med våldsamheterna i grannlandet. RM: Syrien har inte kvar någon legitimitet alls, varken inrikes eller utrikes, och regimen kan nu räkna sina allierade på ena handens fingrar. Syrien uttrycker sig nu enbart militärt, via säkerhetsapparaten och våld. Syriens opposition är motståndskraftig men saknar en koherent vision om hur landet bör utvecklas i framtiden. Oppositionen i Syrien är splittrad och har inte en gemensam strategi såsom oppositionen i högre grad hade i Egypten. Minoriteter (kristna, alleviter m.fl.) är inte tillfredställda med situationen i dagsläget i Syrien men har större farhågor för vad som kan komma att ske i framtiden utan den nuvarande regimen. Vissa regioner i Syrien upplever sekteristiska dispyter som börjar utvecklas till ett så kallat kontrollerat inbördeskrig (contained civil war). Ett proxykrig pågår just nu mellan Syrien och Turkiet när det kommer till den kurdiska frågan. Utvecklingen i Syrien har den enskilt största påverkan på alla andra länders utveckling i regionen, åtminstone på kort sikt. Frågan är hur Arabförbundet kommer agera om storskaliga protester bryter ut i Saudiarabien. Arabförbundets krav på och ställning till Syrien har chockerat alla, både inom regionen och utanför. Frågor & Svar JH: Jordanier av palestinskt ursprung ville inte initiera protesterna, debatten om demokratisering skulle då ha ändrat riktning utåt sett och fått en annan karaktär (inte inhemsk ). Transjordanier tog ledningen i Jordanien. Jordanien har studerat valsystemet under en längre tid men kommer ingenstans vad gäller reformer. En orsak är att palestinier med stor säkerhet kommer att erhålla en majoritet med proportionella val, något som skulle vara till fördel för israeler som hävdar att Jordanien är ett alternativt hemland för palestinier.
RM: Jordanien behöver balansera sina intressen, exempelvis vad gäller landets officiella ställning till regimförändringar i Bahrain och i Syrien. USA och Israel kommer fortsatt ha goda relationer och arabstaternas strategier kan inte utgå från och baseras på andra scenarier än denna verklighet. Turkiet har hanterat den arabiska våren bäst genom att agera konsekvent och anpassa sig till händelseutvecklingen i regionen. Däremot har Turkiet tagit ställning och är inte längre en neutral aktör, landet stödjer islamister mer än andra aktörer. Dessutom kvarstår den olösta kurdiska frågan, något som Syrien nu börjat exploatera och utnyttja till sin egen fördel. JH: Ungdomar i Jordanien behöver engagera sig mer i landet via olika forum, såsom sociala klubbar och universitetsgrupper. Vilken roll kommer Jordaniens ungdomar spela i den jordanska ekonomin, i militären, i den politiska sfären? Regimens politik vad gäller ungdomar behöver utvecklas. RM: Hela den Israelisk/Palestinska fredsprocessen (the Middle East Peace Process) behöver förändras och utvecklas. Processen har stagnerat totalt och riktningen är snarare negativ. Nya aktörer och mål behöver tas hänsyn till. Discussion Group: Iraq Moderatorer Zaid al-ali och Joost Hiltermann: Amerikanernas tillbakadragande av trupper i Irak kommer förmodligen inte att ha en stor påverkan på stabiliteten i landet på kort sikt. Våldet i Irak har minskat och säkerhetsläget är bättre i dagsläget än för något år sedan. Den irakiska armén är tränad och bättre utbildad. Situationen för irakiska kvinnor är dock sämre idag än för 10-20 år sedan och kvinnor upplever mer osäkert. Det är framförallt 4 krafter/aktörer som formar nationsbyggandet i Irak: 1) Kurderna 2) Iran 3) Turkiet 4) USA och Israel Förhandlingar om ett nytt socialt kontrakt i Irak pågår inte då det inte ingår i kurdernas agenda och är inte av intresse för minoriteten. Vad kommer hända nu när de gemensamma (kurdisk/amerikansk/irakiska) kontrollstationerna upphör att existera? Småskaliga dispyter inom omtvistade regioner kan komma att eskalera till inbördeskrig.
Kirkuks framtid kan inte avgöras i förhandlingar eller genom folkomröstning. Problematiken kommer kvarstå en längre tid och Kirkuks status är den mest kritiska aspekten i relationen mellan Erbil och Bagdad. Panel III: Supporting Democratic Transition and Good Governance Strategies and Opportunities Klemens Semtner (KS): Vilka kriterier bör användas vid diskussioner om framgångsrika demokratiska transitioner? Vad avses med detta konkret? Vilka strategier som används beror på definitionen av en framgångsrik transition till demokrati. I Tunisien och Egypten bör stöd framförallt ligga på ekonomisk stabilitet. I Marocko och Jordanien bör stöd framförallt ligga på politiska reformer. I Libyen bör stöd framförallt ligga på säkerhet och stabilitet. Nabila Hamza (NH): Det sker en politisk och social utveckling i hela arabvärlden som bör stöttas. Det är kritiskt för arabstaterna och västvärlden att reflektera kring utmaningar, lärdomar och misstag för att bäst kunna förstå händelseutvecklingen i hela arabvärlden och därigenom utveckla regionen i en demokratisk riktning. En av de mest positiva aspekterna av den arabiska våren är att civilsamhällena i arabvärlden har börjat florera. Varje land har dock sina egna förutsättningar. En utmaning kan komma att bli islamisternas inverkan på demokratiseringsprocesserna samt byggandet av pluralistiska samhällen som respekterar mänskliga rättigheter. Är den turkiska staten en potentiell modell? Egypten ska hålla nationella val 28/11 och frågan är vilken roll som divisionen och polariteten mellan islamister och icke-islamister kommer att spela vad gäller den egyptiska demokratiseringen. Är en genuin transition till en civilstat möjlig och vilken roll kommer kvinnor att spela? Libyen har inga fungerande institutioner alls och ingen statsapparat, landet befinner sig i ett fullständigt institutionellt vakuum. Hur ska landets nya armé se ut efter regimförändringen? Utmaningarna är att ena de olika klanerna, avväpna befolkningen och bygga upp landet igen. Immaculada Roca I Cortes (IRIC)): Byggstenarna i EU:s strategi för mellanöstern baseras på: Stöd till demokratisering Stöd till partnerskap och samhälle Stöd till hållbar ekonomisk utveckling Instrumenten som kommer användas är budgetstöd, ökad dialog och handel och marknad. Det är väsentligt att EU koordinerar dessa strategier och instrument på ett effektivt sätt.
Islamist movements in Jordan Intern: Koncha Nouri Amman: 2011-2012
Table of Contents Introduction 3 The Arab Awakening and the regional context 3 Organisation and currents of JMB/IAF 4 Objectives and goals of JMB/IAF 4 Religion and the state 5 Economy 6 Minority and women s rights 6 The role of youths 7 Regional issues/anti-normalisation 7 IAF s current and possible future strategies in light of the regime response 8 JMB/IAF in relation to Conservative Salafists and Jihadi Salafists 9 Conclusion and outlook 10 Annexes 12 Abstract This report aims to give a brief overview of Islamist movements in the Middle East in general and to describe the Jordanian Islamist movement, primarily represented by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Action Front, in particular. The Salafist trend will also briefly be examined in relation. Political Islam will most likely play a major role in the transformation of the region in the aftermaths of the Arab Awakening. While noting the ambiguity in the human rights agenda of Islamist parties and the seeming irreconcilability of Islamic agendas with (Western) democratic values and practices, it is important that the West engage more actively with these movements. A combination of written sources and interviews with IAF-representatives, researchers, analysts and journalists has been used. ********** 2
Introduction Western people cannot expect Arab people to adopt their style of democracy. One has to take the regional context into consideration. Western nations do not have to be afraid of the Islamic way of democracy. 1 Islamists will fail, they have no experience in governing and the regimes will make them fail. 2 The Arab world has already transformed dramatically and is still developing only a year after the eruption of the Arab Awakening. Where the region is heading is unclear. The aspirations of the populations in the Middle East have shaken the foundations of the authoritarian regimes, and democratic elections have been held in some countries in the aftermath of popular uprisings. Islamists have turned out to be key political actors on the scene. This report will primarily focus on the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood (JMB) and its political arm, the Islamic Action Front (IAF). This Islamist movement is the most organised and dominant political opposition force in Jordan. 3 The Islamic Action Front has for years stressed the importance of democracy and regime reforms, and although the movement has worked to achieve its goals peacefully, there are concerns about JMB/IAFs agenda, including regarding human rights issues. The Islamists are seen as operating in so called grey areas, especially with regards to minority and women s rights. 4 The paper begins with a brief description of the regional and historical context. It thereafter describes the objectives and strategies of JMB/IAF, along with an overview of the regime response and JMB/IAFs relation to other Islamists in Jordan, mainly the Salafist movement. The Arab Awakening and the regional context Recent developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) during 2011 have so far led to the downfall of authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, while Syria is on the brink of a civil war. The popular uprisings have been developing differently but the underlying causes have been shared between the Arab states. Common denominators are poverty, unemployment, corruption and large youth bulges with grievances concerning human rights, political freedom and opportunities. In light of the Arab Awakening, the Islamists have come to the forefront, despite the fact that they were less active during the demonstrations. Islamists have during the last year won national elections in Morocco, Tunisia and recently in Egypt. Long being stigmatised and isolated from political participation, Islamist movements are likely to become more visible and play prominent roles in many Arab states. The seeming popularity of Islamists throughout the Arab world can be traced down to some important factors. Throughout the region, Islamist movements have been organising and building a platform for many years. The movements have long worked in the society on a grassroots level through social and charity work, by establishing e.g. hospitals and schools. This has given them credibility and legitimacy among the populations, especially as they often met needs neglected by the regimes. Moreover, many Islamists have political agendas that put emphasis on anti-corruption issues, fight against injustices, an end to repression, and political accountability. The movements unwavering focus on religious matters and social codes has also found its supporters. 1 Interview with al-assaf, N (2011) 2 Interview with Abu Rumman, M (2012) 3 The Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Action Front will be referred to as the Islamist movement in Jordan. 4 Brown, N and Hamzawy, A and Ottaway, M (2006: 4, 6) 3
Thus, despite the fact that Islamists have been restricted in their operations and at times been oppressed, they now seem to have gained the confidence of the populations to put their words into action. They can more or less be characterised as untried cards that have been around for decades in their societies but at the same time have been isolated, and that appears to have impacted on people s willingness to test that Islamist card. A combination of the Islamists social and political agendas, together with their emphasis on Islamic values as well as substantial funding primarily from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, can explain their strength in the Arab world. Annex I briefly presents Islamist movements in some of Jordan s neighbouring countries. Organisation and currents of JMB/IAF The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood (JMB) was established during the 1940s with the aim to pursue an Islamic agenda within social, political, and educational fields. It was not until 1992 that JMB founded a political party, the Islamic Action Front (even though the Muslim Brotherhood had been politically active earlier). JMB and IAF are registered groups and operate legally; IAF is the largest opposition party in Jordan and is formally separate from the Muslim Brotherhood. An IAF representative declared in an interview that the party was completely independent from the Muslim Brotherhood, but confirmed that they consult with each other, yet in non-binding ways. 5 That is, JMB does not have a final say in the internal workings of IAF, according to this source. One analyst, however, expressed the relationship as follows: the Muslim Brotherhood controls IAF. 6 The Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Action Front thus form one Islamist movement, the most dominant Islamist force in Jordan. JMB/IAF is perceived to mainly but not exclusively represent the Palestinian community, i.e. Jordanians of Palestinian origin or West Bankers. The Brotherhood s social and charity work has long targeted Palestinian camps in the country and the organisation has gained support from a large segment of the Jordanian society, in which a majority is of Palestinian origin. 7 Representatives of the Islamic Action Front, however, argue that IAF, as the country s largest party, represents several groups and that the party bridges a gap between Transjordanians or East Bankers and Jordanians of Palestinian origin. They also emphasise that Christians are welcome as members of IAF (though not in the JMB). 8 The Islamist movement is not a unitary but is more or less divided in two overall currents with different agendas; a dovish current mainly represented by East Bankers who are more loyal to the regime and who want to focus on national issues, and a hawkish current mainly represented by Jordanians of Palestinian origin who want to prioritise the Palestinian cause more. These so called hawks, or hardliners, within JMB/IAF are also associated with Hamas. 9 Objectives and goals of JMB/IAF It appears that the so called hardliners (hawks) had the upper-hand and were more influential within the JMB/IAF between 2006 and 2010. 10 However, the Arab Awakening seems to have impacted on JMB/IAF to appear more moderate, dovish and pragmatic. It is even argued that the divisions between the currents almost are disappearing. 11 The movement cannot continue with the old discourse according to one expert who further said that being fanatics limit their possibilities. 12 5 Interview with al-assaf, N (2011) 6 Interview with Gharaibeh, I (2012) 7 Interviews with all analysts, scholars and experts held (2011-2012) 8 Interview with al-assaf (2011) 9 Abu Rumman, M (2009: 95-98) and Hattar, S (2009), Rantawi, O (2009) 10 Bunzel, C and Schenker, D (2010) 11 Interview with Abu Rumman, M (2012) 12 Interview with Awad, A (2011) 4
Instead of pursuing an overly Islamic agenda or emphasising the Palestinian cause, JMB/IAF presses for national reforms. The movement is looking for political power and consequently focuses more on Jordan 13 Religion and the state The Islamist movement has participated in political activity during decades and wants to push for a greater role of Islam in public life 14 Yet, it is not clear whether that ultimately would mean governing in accordance with Sharia. The movement is divided between proponents of strict application of Islamic laws and those who talk about a legal system inspired by Islam. For instance, IAF called for the application of Sharia in its platform in 2003 and declared that it was a basic goal. However, the party did not explicitly mention what that ultimately would mean but instead stressed the need for persuasion and for taking small-steps, rather than to radically impose something on the society. Similar ambiguity was also expressed by one interviewee when he explained that the movement aims to build a modern, civil state based on the rule of law and not an Islamic state based on Sharia. But the civil state would be based on Islamic values. 15 With regards to the political process, the Islamist movement calls for reforms that range from issues regarding arrests of political prisoners and press restrictions, to new election and party laws, as well as guarantees of free and fair elections. IAF has ever since its introduction in 1993 been demanding that the current electoral system, SNTV (single non-transferable vote), be replaced by a proportional one. The previous system permitted citizens to vote for more than one candidate per district whereas the SNTV only allows the population to cast a vote for one candidate per district, despite the fact that several candidates in one district are being chosen. Moreover, the issue of territory is crucial under the SNTV system since the number and sizes of the districts affect the representation of the population. The system (introduced to de facto keep the Islamist movement in opposition) combined with gerrymandering (district borders are specifically drawn to increase the representation of rural areas where Transjordanians mainly live) is believed to uphold the underrepresentation of Jordanians with Palestinian origin. This due to the fact that the SNTV weakens parties and instead favours individual candidates per district. Thus, Jordanians tend to vote for individual tribe members belonging to their own tribe rather than for political parties, such as IAF. A proportional system would most likely increase the presence of Palestinian Jordanians in parliament according to their proportion in the society. 16 Consequently, IAF s main objective has long been, and still is, to amend the electoral system so that the party potentially can achieve a parliamentary majority. 17 The Islamist movement s discourse is one that puts emphasis on democracy and pluralism, and increasingly so in light of the Arab Awakening. According to members of the Islamic Action Front, democracy means free and fair elections, freedom to pursue peaceful political activity without interference by security services, as well as individual freedoms in the society. They also underline that they want to reform rather than to replace or overthrow the system. All of these issues are compatible with Islamic thoughts and values, representatives explain. They say, however, that democracy will not fully be applicable to Jordan in a Western sense since the societal context differs from other societies. 18 There are different views among experts about the possibility of the Islamist movement to democratise Jordan according to such discourse. 19 13 Interview with Rantawi, O (2011) 14 Brown, N and Hamzawy, A (2010: 56, 59-60) 15 Interview with Luck, T (2012) 16 International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (2005: 20-21, 37, 51) 17 Interview with Arabiyyat, A (2012) 18 Interviews with Arabiyyat, A (2012) and al-assaf, N (2011) 19 Interviews with all analysts, scholars and experts held (2011-2012) 5
Economy With regards to the economic sphere in Jordan, the Islamic Action Front has yet not established a program that clearly states the objectives of the movement. This is, according to experts, one of the biggest challenges facing IAF. That is, the inability to formulate economic policies as a unified party. 20 One analyst argued that a main goal is to put an end to the privatisation of sectors, which steadily has occurred since the country embarked on a liberalisation policy during the 1990s. Moreover, IAF also wants Jordan to stop relying on conditional foreign aid, mainly from the United States and the European Union, and instead rely more on countries in the Middle East, according to him. 21 Others state that IAF firstly will work to reduce widespread corruption that also affects businesses and the private market. However, some believe that the party would run the public economy better if in a governing position, whereas the private market is seen as a harder sector to handle. The party s inexperience in how foreign companies, investors and private markets function is said to be the reason for such incapacity. 22 A party member affirmed that anti-corruption policies were vital and said that IAF aims to completely eliminate corruption and make sure that good economists are in the right places. 23 Nevertheless, it is not clear what exactly the Islamist movement wants, or how to practically pursue the more or less unstated goals when it concerns Jordan s economy. Minority and women s rights As in other countries, there are concerns regarding the Islamists agenda. Concerns are expressed, mainly among secular women and Christians, about whether the Islamist movement will try to impose Islamic values and practises on the society if IAF would come to power, such as codes related to clothing and social behaviour. According to representatives of IAF, there has never been any problem between Moslems and Christians. They explain that IAF s policy is to allow Christians and other non-moslems in the party and that they do not differentiate people based on religion or beliefs. 24 A similar argument was formulated by one expert, who said that although there probably would be some concerns among minorities was IAF to govern such fears would not be fully grounded. The Christian minority is said to be part of the elite and wants to maintain the status quo concerning their status. Yet, IAF would not try to Islamisise the country and religious minorities are not seen as kafirs ( unbelievers ) by the Islamist movement in Jordan, the interviewee explained. 25 With regards to women, party representatives argue that media plays a role in picturing the Islamist movement as oppressing women. A representative said that the movement encourages women to be politically active and explained that IAF has a section for women so that they can advance female issues and the party s aims. He further stated that there is nothing in Islam that says that women should not be politically active and continued; media needs to correct its ways about how it is portraying Islam. 26 Another member stressed that IAF supports women s rights and also stated that the party perceives it as crucial that women participate in political activities. 27 One analyst agreed with this and argued that democracy, as the Islamist movement perceives it, is compatible with human rights. According to him, IAF will not impose anything on women (e.g. veils) in lines of Islamic law and this person genuinely believes that the party will act on its democratic discourse. 28 20 Interview with Abu Rumman, M (2012) 21 Interview with Luck, T (2012) 22 Interview with Gharaibeh, I (2012) 23 Interview with Arabiyyat, A (2012) 24 Interviews with al-assaf, N (2011) and Arabiyyat, A (2012) 25 Interview with Luck, T (2012) 26 Interview with al-assaf, N (2011) 27 Interview with Arabiyyat, A (2012) 28 Interview with Luck, T (2012) 6
Others are, however, not that sure about the credibility of the movement. Some argue that there is a major difference between the discourse and the reality as hawks within the movement want to restrict female participation in political life. Women ought to also live their life in accordance to the rules in Sharia, according to sources that have cited IAF. Additionally, it has been expressed by IAF representatives that the concept gender only is a Western feminist invention that destroys the social fabric of Islamic societies. Finally, studies reveal that Islamist women in IAF confirm that there is a continuing struggle for women to achieve equal standing and rights as men. 29 Consequently, analysts declare that the society needs to protect itself from a potential Islamisation because we can never be sure what they really want based only on their words and principles. 30 Or in other words; there could be a social struggle. 31 The role of youths Youths across the MENA region were the leading forces behind the popular uprisings through the use of social media, such as Facebook and YouTube, and they soon became the face of the Arab Awakening. The role of youths during the pro-reform protests in Jordan, however, has not been as evident. Despite the fact that youth movements still hit to the streets to demand reforms throughout the country, the momentum of the rallies has not yet been visible. One explanation could be that there is a lack of broad-based alliances between different youth movements, which can organise and coordinate the demands and strategies. The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood prides itself for having a specific youth section that encourages youths to participate in the society through social work, religious and cultural activities as well as through activities at universities. They aim to fight corruption, injustices and economic collapse, according to one interviewee. 32 Yet, the Islamist movement does not seem to have as a goal to unite the different youth movements in the country in order for them to speak with one voice with the regime. This in accordance to another interviewee who stated; the major problem with youths here is their inability to jointly organise the protests. He further explained that there is lack of young blood within the Islamist movement and that it still is dominated by veterans from older generations. On a question related to the role of possible youth leaders, experts have said that it is not clear whether there are any youth leaders. 33 Regional issues/anti-normalisation The Islamist movement in Jordan is believed to have close bonds to Hamas and also officially wants to abrogate the Wadi Araba Peace Treaty between Jordan and Israel, which was signed in 1994. The movement has since then openly called for an anti-normalisation in the relationship between the countries since it does not perceive that the treaty has benefited Jordan or Palestinians, and because it supports the Palestinian cause. Nevertheless, there are different opinions about the extent of the relationship between Hamas and the Islamist movement. 34 According to a representative for IAF, there is no specific cooperation between Hamas and the movement, however, the Islamist movement in Jordan supports the Palestinian cause and backs all Islamists who support that cause. 35 Meanwhile, experts on Islamists argue instead that the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas are intertwined, that memberships are mixed, that they are organisationally close and that Hamas operates in Palestinian camps in Jordan. 36 29 Abu Hanieh, H (2008: 94-95, 115) 30 Interview with Gharaibeh, I (2012) 31 Interview with Awad, A (2011) 32 Interview with al-assaf, N (2011) 33 Interviews with Luck, T (2012) and Gharaibeh, I (2012) 34 Brown, N (2006: 8) 35 Interview with al-assaf, N (2011) 36 Interviews with Gharaibeh, I (2012) and Rantawi, O (2011) 7