Wider Benefit analysis for the transport corridor Oslo- Stockholm, preliminary results

Transkript

1 Wider Benefit analysis for the transport corridor Oslo- Stockholm, preliminary results

2 THE PROJECT OSLO-STOCKHOLM

3 Reoriented more direct rail connection with greater capacity Today 572 km New 498 km Existing double track 171 km New Line double track 165 km Additional track beside existing 162 km 3

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5 Passenger Rail product concepts Inter City Express Regional Express Dep. 1 hour frequency 4-5 stops 250 km/h top speed 2 h 55 min Direct service morning and late afternoons 2 h 40 min Dep. 1 hour frequency 20 stops 200 km/h top speed ½ hour frequency morning and late afternoons GENDIATUR, QUE REIUNT EXPLABO. UT ASINCTIIS DE VOLLACCAB ISUNT ET EOS QUATIANDANDI DELLECU LLUPTIIST 7

6 Passenger Rail Traffic Network Objective Goal for city city travel time 8

7 Traveling time comparizon (1) car - train today - new project Restid bil Restid tåg O-S Oslo-Stockholm Oslo-Karlstad Oslo-Örebro Oslo-Västerås Oslo-Eskilstuna 9

8 Traveling time (2) car train today new project Karlstad-Örebro Karlstad-Västerås Karlstad-Stockholm Örebro-Västerås Örebro-Stockholm Västerås-Stockholm Eskilstuna-Oslo Eskilstuna-Karlstad Restid bil Restid tåg O-S

9 Benefits with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 wider geo sustainable growth regions two capitals and three of the greatest Scandinavian country regions will form a new corridor region 11

10 Strategic Objective for Freight Rail Higher Train Loads Longer train lenght 750 m Higher axleloads 25 t Higher meterweight 8, 4 t/m On time delivery Higher line capacity More flexible timetabels Higher costefficiency Shorter lean times in freight terminal access and departure Shorter turn arounds Higher utility of rolling stock 12

11 BENEFIT ANALYSIS 13

12 Wider benefit analysis - Travel time savings - Benefits for the labor market - Benefits for the business sector - Real Estate and Housing benefits - Social benefits - Benefits for the integration - Study benefits - Environmental benefits 14

13 From infrastructure to wider social economic development Idea stage > PFS > PEA > FS Market for travel and transportation Regional conditions + Strategic Local investments Infrastructure Traffic system Accessibility Development! Optimization and funding Benefits a. Real Estate development b. Travel time savings c. Labor market d. Business sector e. Environment f. Social benefits 15

14 The more people the more development Size Number of sectors Competition Employment Entrepreneurship Innovations Wage level/productivity Health Public service Level of education Energy efficiency Etc. Population/ Population density

15 The larger the region, the more industries and labour bransches 1,0 0,9 Branschbredd (andel av totala antalet branscher) 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0, Befolkningsmängd i så kallade "Funktionella Analys-regioner 2014 Data: SCB 17

16 Örebro Region local labour market Askersund Askersund Askersund Askersund Hallsberg Hallsberg Hallsberg Degerfors Kumla Kumla Kumla Hallsberg Lekeberg Laxå Laxå Hällefors Lindesberg Lekeberg Lekeberg Karlskoga Nora Lindesberg Lindesberg Kumla Örebro Nora Nora Laxå Örebro Örebro Lekeberg Lindesberg Nora Storfors Örebro 19

17 Västerås Region local labour market Hallstahammar Arboga Arboga Arboga Sala Hallstahammar Hallstahammar Hallstahammar Surahammar Kungsör Kungsör Kungsör Västerås Köping Köping Köping Sala Sala Sala Surahammar Surahammar Surahammar Västerås Västerås Västerås 20

18 TRAIN 2016 Travel time in minutes Oslo Lilleström Arvika Karlstad Örebro Västerås Stockholm C Oslo Lilleström Arvika Kil Karlstad Kristinehamn Karlskoga/Degerf Örebro Västerås Stockholm C TRAIN 2040 Travel time in minutes Oslo Lilleström Arvika Karlstad Örebro Västerås Stockholm C Oslo Lilleström Arvika Kil Karlstad Kristinehamn Karlskoga/Degerf Örebro Västerås Stockholm C

19 Today 2 t 30 min 1 t 40 min 50 min 55 min Oslo C Sthlm C 22

20 Today 2 t 30 min 1 t 40 min 50 min 55 min Oslo C Sthlm C Tomorrow 1 t 02 min 35 min 30 min 42 min Oslo C Sthlm C 23

21 Travel and calculated net present values travel time savings Number of train journeys / year JA 2040 UA 2040 Alternation Regional, national ~65 billion ~87 billion +34 % International ~ ~2,9 billion +750 % 24

22 A socioeconomic calculation with some limitations for freight - net present values Effect Value Sweden, billion crowns Value Norway, billion crowns Total value, billion crowns Producer excess Budget effects Consumer excess External effects D&U, reinvestments Sum

23 Increased job availability within 60 minutes County JA UA Increase UA to JA Stockholm % Västerås % Örebro % Lekeberg % Degerfors % Karlskoga % Kristinehamn % Karlstad % Arvika % SUM % 26

24 Labor market and business benefits Increase in number of jobs Increase in salary year 2045 with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 (Mkr) Increase in business benefits year 2045 with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 (Mkr) Karlstad ~ Örebro ~ Västerås ~ Summa Ca 370 Mkr Ca 370 Mkr Accumulated contribution to the gross region product during the period : approximately 5,2 billion 27

25 Forecast freight flows per year railway (kton/year) Source: Trafikverket, Basprognos

26 Forecast number of road trucks per day ~700 ~800 ~2 200 ~1 200 ~1 000 ~1 500 ~1 000 ~1 500 ~1 200 ~3 900 ~2 900 ~1 100 ~1 700 ~1 700 Source: Trafikverket, Basprognos

27 Freight flows 2040 (kton/year) Railway Road Källa: Trafikverket, Basprognos

28 Benefits for freight transport Shorter transport distance for especially InterModal Trains on the short cut line Arvika ( Se)- Lilleström (No) ( - 65 km) Shorter turn arounds and higher fleet utility with better access to freight terminals Shorter Transport time with due to reduced no of stops under way (0,5-1 h) Higher Reliability and lower transport costs Higher axleloads and meterweight will increase the train net load More flexible logistics due to higher line capacity Longer trains 750 m will increase the train net load Source: Trafikverket 31

29 The freight operators are represented with licence in both countries 32

30 Attractivity Housing benefits Consumption of housing Productivity Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 Access to housing Well-being Demand New housing UA Alternation Increase in value Karlstad % Mkr Örebro % Mkr Västerås % Mkr Not: the numbers should be seen as potential, not as a forecast. 33

31 Social benefits Based on the human needs Better housing, improved study and work opportunities, a richer leisure Benefits for as many people as possible Including, not excluding More fair resource allocation, strengthening equality and gender equality The social capital is strengthened: Trust can be improved Exclusion is reduced The unhealthy total is reduced Greater satisfaction and increased confidence in the future Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 is expected to generate several different social benefits. 34

32 Possible integration benefits Remain in smaller municipalities and small towns after permanent residence Easier to visit relatives and compatriots Expanded labor market Better opportunities for adequate care Increased opportunities to participate in community and community life Increased housing construction can reduce housing shortage and narrow housing Improved communications creates self-esteem and satisfaction 35

33 Student perspective Factors Supply of education Regional attractiveness Further education of professionals Collaboration with working life Impact Distance education (+). International students (+) Recruitment of staff ++ Recruitment of students + Business perspective Collaboration with Swedish universities + International collaborations (+) Collaboration companies public and non-profit sectors. + Increased education level in the region (+) Social perspective Competence supply of companies, public and non-profit sectors (+) Innovations and new business (+) 36

34 Environmental benefits 37

35 Norwegian Swedish exchange Municipality Labor market Border trade Tourism Oslo Strengthened. Common labor market with Karlstad in certain professions. Easier commuting from Western Värmland. Weekly commuting Oslo-Stockholm is facilitated. Strengthened. As a capital, Oslo exerts an attraction for trade based on supply rather than price. Strengthens. Norwegian-Swedish ownership and investment Strengthens. Export and import Certain reinforcement through more common services market. Karlstad Strengthened. Common labor market with Oslo in certain professions. Strengthens. Strengthens. Strengthens. Strengthened through more common services market. Örebro Weak effect, weekly commuting easier. No effect. Opportunity to develop Opportunity to develop. Strengthened through more common services market. Västerås Significant effect, weekly commuting easier. No effect. Some opportunity to develop Possibility to develop with the help of strong brands. Certain reinforcement through more common services market. Stockholm Weekly commuting Olso-Stockholm easier. No effect. Strengthens. Insignificant effect. Insignificant effect. 38

36 Benefits with Oslo-Stockholm

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