FTTH. En samhällsekonomisk studie. Crister Mattsson

Transkript

1 FTTH En samhällsekonomisk studie Crister Mattsson

2 FTTH & affärsmodeller Är bredband samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt? En studie om Stokab

3 OPTICAL ACCESS SEAMLESS EVOLUTION Development and assessment of next-generation optical access (NG-OA) Consortium Acreo activities within OASE: Definition of requirements for NGOA Technical, economical and regulatory Study of different technology solutions Examination of innovative business models municipality open-networks 7th FrameWork Programme of the European Commission

4 DIGITAL AGENDA The target is that all EU citizens should have "basic broadband" access by 2013; and that by 2020 they should have fast coverage at 30 Megabits / second with half of households having 100 Megabit subscriptions or higher Problems identified: The incumbents does not do the necessary investments in fiber networks. Alternative public and private investors (including local administrations and public utilities) are often held back policy's and capital costs.

5 Figure 1 The network model and typical access value chain

6 MODEL OPEN NW RSP RSP RSP End user private ISP ISP SP End user company NP. Network Provider Active infrastructure Switches System Passive infrastructure PIP Regional/City network Access/building network Fiber Fiber

7 HAR FTTH SAMHÄLLSEKONOMISK BETYDELSE?

8 Roll-out cost Telco return Un-captured values Profit from copper FTTH COSTS AND BENEFIT CALCULATION Internet service revenue Telephony service revenue TV service revenue

9 increased use of ICT services FTTH deployment Very high access speed New infrastructure lower prices for services Direct economic activity New/better services True cloud computing Videoconf Telepresence HD and 3D TV VoD Network gaming E-health E- government Logistics, prod, management efficiency in PA Sensor networks transparency in PA Power grid efficiency Distance working e-learning reduced traffic congestion Video surveillance lower burden of bureaucracy corruption discouraged Democracy strengthened Perceived quality of life Increased market value Ease to do business reduced environment impact Virtual labour mobility lower publ spending higher tax revenue Education quality and cost new business model Functional separation higher employment Competition between SPs low upfront investment for NP and SP RoW revenues GDP lower barriers Profitability of NP and SP Profitability Of PIP learning curves reduced forced migration Dev. of new technologies productivity ICT competence HR pool New ICT and traditional companies ICT Maturity: digital natives Customers for new services entrepreneurship

10 FTTH deployment Our question: What actually happened after fibre was deployed? The tool: Multivariable regression analysis of all of Sweden s 290 municipalities The data: Fibre penetration in 2007 Employment, tax rate, etc

11 QUANTIFYING THE VALUES Examples from our pre-study for Sweden s Broadband Forum: Short-term effect can actually be measured Data for all of Sweden s 290 municipalities Positive impact on employment and population 10% increase of fibre penetration leads to a 0.25% improved population trend in the short term

12 FTTH deployment New infrastructure Example: agreement tenant ass n and housing companies 5/month/apartment (+4) Increased market value new business model possible Functionally separated open access Examples: Saving in data and telecom for: City of Stockholm: 30% Stockholm region: 50% Region Norrbotten: 50% Competition between SPs lower prices for services Example: Price in Swedish fibre networks: Dark fiber 100 Mb/s

13 Change in employmnent (adjusted) FTTH deployment 0.1% 120 M /year Higher employment FTTH/FTTx penetration in % 600 M

14 Public savings in communication Value for tennats Increased employment QUANTIFYING THE VALUES

15 CAPTURING THE UNCAPTURED VALUES: Key to a success: Identify all main benefits, their beneficiaries and their mutual interactions Develop a business model including all the values

16 Resultat av Stokabs fibersatsning

17 STOKAB ACKUMULERADE INVESTERINGAR Investment [2012 MSEK]

18 STOKABS ACKUMULERAT RESULTAT FÖRE SKATT Stokab profit before tax [2012 MSEK]:

19 Stockholms ICT-utveckling Kista är Science City of Stockholm Idag finns här över 1000 ICT-företag med anställda. Kista Science City har också 6800 universitetsstudenter och 1100 forskarexaminerade inom ICT.

20 Internt för staden och landsting Utveckling av e-tjänster Minskade kostnader (mer än 100 miljoner SEK per år)

21 Operatörernas möjligheter Tillgång till ett konkurrensneutralt nät 4G: fiber backhaul på plats C.O. tillgängliga för alla

22 Hyresgästernas värde Nya funktioner Bruksvärde, 58 miljoner per år

23 Värde för bostadsföretagen Ökade möjligheter Högre fastighetsvärde 1.16 miljarder (fortsätter att öka till 2.15 miljarder)

24 BOSTADSFÖRETAGEN investment bostadsföretag increased real-estate value Yearly added value [2012 MSEK]:

25 Summering av socioekonomiska vinster Stokabs avkastning, Bruksvärde Ökat fastighetsvärde Värde av lägre priser

26 STOKABS ACKUMULERAD INVESTERING OCH SAMHÄLLSEKONOMISK VINST I STOCKHOLM Investment [2012 MSEK] TOTAL RETURN [2012 MSEK]

27 Crister Mattsson