Världens eko. Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms universitet Beijerinstitutet, Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien

Transkript

1 Världens eko Carl Folke Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholms universitet Beijerinstitutet, Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien

2

3 Biosfär formad av människan

4 Perspektivet Alltmer integrerade ekonomier och samhällen Den levande resursbasen fundamentet för integreringen Miljöfrågor handlar om vår egen utveckling säkerställa och möjliggöra en progressiv samhällsutveckling

5 Urbanisation, globalisation and seafood production Fishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand Deutsch et al Global Environmental Change 17: D

6 Hela jorden är sammanbunden i ett system ekologiskt, socialt, politiskt och ekonomiskt

7 florianotte.webseiten.cc/ alexhaensel/alex/pho... > 50% bor i urbana områden Många har tappat kontakten med naturen

8

9 Ekosystemen levererar tjänster Städer i Östersjöregionen invånare

10 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem services the benefits people obtain from ecosystems

11 Ekosystemtjänster (inkl. matproduktion), beror av människans förmåga att samarbeta med biosfären och stärka resiliensen Grazing Pollination Seafood production Storm buffering Carbon sinks Freshwater generation

12 Seafood management in Maine, USA a success story?

13 Stocks of predatory fish (cod, tuna, flatfish). Source: Christensen et al. 2003, Fish and Fisheries Figure

14 Lobster aquaculture and juicy dinners a gilded trap? Rhode Island 72% loss from shell disease

15 Food production must be based more on biodiversity and ecosystem services than monocultures and fossil fuels Rebuilding in harmony with nature

16 Tipping points

17 Critical transitions and regime shifts

18 Låg resiliens plötsliga brytpunkter

19 Green Sahara Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26,

20 Carl Folke, Science Stockholm Director Resilience Centre

21 Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters 26, Carl Folke, Science Stockholm Director Resilience Centre

22 Interactions global markets, land use, disturbance, regional tipping and climate the case of the Borneo rainforests, and the weather event El Niño

23

24 Turning El Niño from creator to destroyer 1997 fires % of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels e.g. Curran et al Science; Page et al Nature

25 Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System After Schellnhuber 2002

26 Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle First migration of fully modern humans out of Africa Aborigines arrive in Australia Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe Beginning of agriculture Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, Out of Eden, 2004

27 The Resilience of the Earth System

28 Climate Change Ozone depletion Rate of N input to the biosphere, P-inflow to Oceans Rate of Biodiversity Loss Planetary Boundaries Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Ocean acidification Global Freshwater Use Changes in land use Chemical Pollution

29 A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY to stay away from global tipping points

30 Resiliens Vända kris till möjlighet Förmåga att klara av oväntad förändring och kunna vidareutvecklas

31 Brist på resiliens överraskningar

32

33 Resilience turning crisis into opportunities 1. Buffra förändring 2. Aktiv anpassing 3. Transformering

34 Transformation for building resilience of the Great Barrier Reef system

35 Transformation for building social-ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef system Crisis - Shifting perspective From separate parts to an integrated whole Active transformation of governance Olsson, Folke, Hughes, PNAS

36 Transformation of SES Chile s coastal resources Australia s Great Barrier Reef Sweden s urban landscapes Window of opportunity Preparing the system for change Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction

37 Active stewardship of Earth s life-support Systems Real world examples of social-ecological systems providing new insights for governance of ecosystem services Serve as pockets of resilience in landscapes and seascapes in times of global environmental change Kristianstads Vattenrike, Southern Sweden Olsson et al Ecology & Society Schultz et al. in press. World Development

38 Actor groups that take part in navigating transitions and help develop and retain a social/collective memory of ecosystem management in the face of change Leaders, stewards, brookers, middlemen Knowledge carriers and retainers Interpreters and sense makers Networkers and facilitaters Visionaries and inspirers Innovators and experimenters Followers and reinforcers

39 Bridging organizations Bridging organization Performing essential functions in crafting effective responses to change in social-ecological systems Linking groups, networks and organizations across levels, creating the right links, at the right time, around the right issues Accessing and combining multiple sources of knowledge and interests Enhancing vertical and horizontal integration and social learning Folke et al. 2005, Hahn et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2007

40 Skifte i perspektiv Värdefråga Ödesfråga Bevara Utveckla Minska trycket Aktivt sköta Reglera o styra - Samförvalta

41

42

43 The Resilience Lens provides new, often surprising insights

44