For testing and focusing

For testing and focusing Bild 1

Trender och tendenser i synen på Smart-Grids Why Smart Grids are unique Main Drivers, including Global Differences Why Energy Efficiency drives Electricity Growth The Challenges of World Electricity Supply Smart Grids A Global, European, as well as Nordic Challenge Bild 2

Main Driver, We need more energy We all need energy but some have better access than others 1. Millions have electricity, 2. 25-30 % have too little (brown-outs and load shedding) 3. 20-30 % are denied electricity. Bild 3

Natural Restriction?. there are limits to growth. is wish all species Expansion & demands economy society people Source: Google Earth Right now the limit is defined and measured as CO 2? Copyright Power Circle, Research och bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 4

Energy curiosities 1 _ We all need energy! Our body A normal grown-up needs ~ 2200 kcal/day (hard work will add 300-800 kcal/hour) Food must be prepared 1. Cooking 1 kcal is 4,2 kj; 2200 kcal x 4,2 kj makes 9 200 000 Ws, corresponding to 2,5 kwh/day. For most of us 3 4 kwh/day makes 1000 1500 kwh/year Power 2 4 kw 5-10 kw Fuel wood/coal electricity Efficiency < 20% > 80% Family needs ~ 4000-5000 kwh/year Per person 500 kwh 1000 kwh Rich or poor, we all need some 2 500 kwh per person and year Efficiency and improved cooking can save a lot of energy! Copyright Power Circle, research och bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 5

Energy curiosities 2 Poor Middle part Developed higher part Light from electricity - 200 kwh/6pers 1200 kwh/4 pers from kerosine 1-2 l/week=150 l /year = 35 kwhe/p,year + 300 kwh/p and year = 2000 kwh/ year,family 10 l/year adds 20 kwh/p - Total ~250 kwh/ pers 75 kwh/pers from 300 kwh/pers + Heat/cooling + Transport + Working tools + Electronics + Etc. etc is linked to standard of living and thus very different, But average of world corresponds to 21 000 kwh/cap And what does basic energy cost? (Swedish retail prices) Food Potatoes 0,1 kwh/100g 1 Euro/kWh Bacon 0,4 kwh/100g 0,7-1 Euro/kWh A piece of bread 0,2 kwh 0,5 Euro/kWh Yougurt 2 dl = 0,2 kwh 6 Euro/kWh 1 glas of red wine 0,15 kwh 10-20 Euro/kWh Other energy forms Sweden figures: Electricity 0,1 0,15 Euro/kWh Oil ~ 0,1 Euro/kWh wood 0,05 0,15 Euro/kWh Observe efficiency factors Copyright Power Circle, research och bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 6

Energy curiosities 3 Efficiency is a major thing for our development! This example is linked to bioenergy, open fire and cooking from 2-5 % with open fire, to ~ 20 % with simple wind protection. This simple chain is a 15 30 times improvement! to perhaps 50 80 % with an iron stove Copyright Power Circle, research coh bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 7

Elens roll i totalenergin 448 Historia och en icke helt otänkbar vision? Behöver utvecklas och kommuniceras! Vision ~ 400 Trots folkmängdsökning och högre energi-uttag kan en högre elandel, sparande och högre bioandel ge klart lägre fossilandel! (Elexport är rumsfähigt) men det sker inte utan teknikutveckling, ökad kunskap och det kräver smarta elnät och system!! elandel 15 % elandel 36 % elandelen 40-50 % ~ 180 TWh Om 20 år är vi, (som en idéskiss) 10 miljoner +11% Jämfört med 2005 BNP är 500 000/pers + 85% Energianvändning + 5% Energi per capita 43TWh - 6% CO 2 -utsläpp per person 2-3 ton/år Reduktion av CO 2 >40% 2025 Men OBS Thailandsresor är ej beaktade Copyright Power Circle, research och bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 8

Economy and carbon levels Selected countries GDP per capita + CO 2 outlet per cap with World references 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 GDP/cap in US$x1000 CO 2 outlets in ton/cap 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 World OECD China AR AUS BE CR SF FR GE IT JAP NO SP SE UK USA Conclusion: No definite mathematical formula seems possible to catch but countries with pollution free electricity seems to do well Source: IEA key world statistics Bild 9

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 of total 14,00 CO-2-utsläpp per person / år Sverige ton/år Kina ton/år 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 Källa::BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010 Bild 10

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Kina bäst och värst. Var 8:e vecka tillverkas 1000 MW solceller Var 4:e vecka byggs 1000 MW vindkraft Var 3:e vecka byggs 1000 MW vattenkraft Varje vecka byggs 1000 MW kolkraft Bild 12

World needs more energy, but limits exist Alternatives? Stay within limits through new technics for uction and use of energy Restrict some use in order to give to all Chosen routes call for Radical change of all Societies CO2 capture and storage technics Wind and Solar Wave and Tidal Energy effeciency Electrical cars New transport modes New city solutions Bild 13

Where are we and what to expect of future? The changes of World electricity supply during 30 years and 20 future years Talking TWh Positive, but is it enough? Sweden 82 TWh ~ 140 TWh Dvs 13,0 0/00 6,9 0/00 TWh Electricity uction 1971-2008 Fossil growths x 3,5 New fossil CO 2 polluting alternatives Almost twice today s level! 2030 Source: IEA World Outlook Bild 14

IEA world energy scenario baseline + blue map to cope with CO 2 Talking Gt CO 2 The necessary reduction - 20% - 50% Source: IEA World Outlook Blue map Bild 15

Gton 60 50 40 30 World Energy Outlook 2010 predictions and scenarios for CO 2 Baseline emissions 57 Gt End-use fuel and electrical effeciency 38% End use fuel switching 15% Power generation effeciency and fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6% 20 Blue Map emissions 14 Gt Renewables 17 % CO2 deposition 19 % 10 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 YEAR Source IEA WEO 2007 level for 450 ppm case = A move towards electricity as the energy carrier Bild 16

Electricity growth is changing in Europe, (from 2009) source: EWEA Bild 17

The pressure to supply and deliver electric energy from renewable energy resources is strong!! But safe and stable electricity nets are key for the transport of electric energy Bild 18

Digitalisation 1980-2010 Calculation machine BESK 1950-tal Yesterday s mobile NMT 450 3,5 kg Today s PC Industritillämpningar Priset faller till 1/10 på 6 à 7 år Morse law doubling/halfing every 18 month Centrala kontrollrummet i Råcksta omkring 1980 med TIDAS världens första verkliga kontrollrumsstöd 04 06 08 10 Copyright Power Circle, research coh bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 19

The technological challenge System control is vital consumers ucers From about here, it is possible to handle a lot more information Some possibilities to disconnect in case of emergency More integrated participation possible thanks to IT-development 1800-talet 1900-talet 2000-talet Frequency and voltagemeter telephone 1st generationen computor support 2nd generationen computor support 1st generation computorised system support 1nd generation computorised system support Bild 20

SMART-Grids become popular IT development Smart-Grids are linked to Power sector technical development The content of Smart Grid also relates to Network working conditions system visions Bild 21

What Trends drive smart-grid? Example 1 = approximate 50% of world population. Source: UN and WBCSD Bild 22

What Trends drive smart-grid? Example 1 Most urban = approximate 50% of world population. Least urban Source: UN and WBCSD Bild 23

What Trends drive smart-grid? Example 2 Status of today s infrastructure 25 years 25 years Is ageing networks an advantage or disadvantage? That is to early to tell, but the aging structure is certainly adding a challenge to the investment decision process. Copyright Power Circle, research and presentation by konsult Bild 24

What Trends drive smart-grid? Example 3 The new technical complexity The traditional value chain cons Sv K Reg N Lok N cons The constantly ongoing balancing Production follows consumption Regulation signals Few and simple signals cons Consumption follows known pattern Source:SvK + Power Circle The future value chain Sv K Conventional uction has to follow new consump + new uction Reg N Responding signals Regulation signals Lok N El cars cons cons cons hpp Consumption + uction by several consumers Plenty-fold numbers of signals are necessary to know what s happening Bild 25

What Trends drive smart-grid? Example 4 The needs of transmission Wind Hydro reservoirs Large-scale solar Copyright Power Circle, Research och bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 26

In Nov 2010 EU launched a vision for an electrical highway It marked areas of importance and why. In these areas economical support may be granted. Source : EU vision Nov 2010 Bild 27

Eus infrastructure plan seem to neglect the options for Wind north of latitude 60 degrees??? New EU interconnections up til 2020 New lines/grids for off-shore wind The creation of these highways must be based on a common smart-grid vision approach Source : EU vision Nov 2010 Bild 28

Technical Solutions Smartgrid transmission technologies Technical Challenges dynamic support power oscillations voltage control reactive power support load flow control supply of passive grids flicker compensation voltage quality volatile loads unsymmetrical loads FACTS SC TCSC SVC VSC SVC PST HVDC CSC VSC Source: ABB Bild 29

A Danish example, a locally balanced Smart-system with wind and CHPs 60 kv 150 kv Input Cell controller Output 60 kv 60 kv 60 kv 10 kv 10 kv 10 kv 60 kv 60 kv 60 kv 10 kv Source Energinet DK 10 kv 30 60 kv 10 kv #269068 CCPP presentation ENARD Expert Meeting Milan Bild 30

Society is also expecting a lot on the consumption side House electronics New lamps and lighting behaviour Modern electronics Modernised electric equipment of many kinds to save energy, to go active, and to activate flexible smart solutions to system variations Active local ucers Heat pumps Slide lay-out rights Power Circle Electrical vehicles Bild 31

Flera stora demosatsningar skall utveckla integrerade kundnära smarta lösningar. System optimeras för att integrera avfalls, kommunikations, energi, el, etc., mot låga utsläppsnivåer Norra Djurgårdsstaden (Stockholm) ska vara en "miljöstadsdel i världsklass". De mål som är kopplade till denna vision är: År 2030 är Norra Djurgårdsstaden fossilbränslefri År 2020 understiger koldioxidutsläppen 1,5 ton CO 2 e per person (CO 2 -ekvivalenter) Norra Djurgårdsstaden är anpassad till kommande klimatförändringar. (Totalt planeras för 10 000 nya bostäder och 30 000 nya arbetsplatser som ska kombineras med modern hamnverksamhet och annan strategisk infrastruktur som Spårväg City.) Bild 32

Utvecklingen av Smarta nät drivs av Nya uktionsmönster Nya kundmönster Nya idéer för balans och styrning av kraftnät Nya affärsmöjligheter Utspridd (även lokal) uktion Många olika nya alternativ Intermittent och oregelbunden uktion Ny hantering av gammal kraft Källa : Cisco kunder har egen ny kraft o nya vanor Nya spetsbehov Mottaglighet för prisvariationer? Lokal styrning av hemförbrukning Miljömål styrande Standards (för styrning och t.ex. Integritet) Nya balansmarknader Fler konstlade nya marknader (typ certifikat) Aktiva kunder Nya affärsidéer Ny teknikutveckling Ny integration smartgrid /IT Ny integration smarta hem/it Bild 33

Cumulative investments for next 20 years period (up til 2030) OBS - reference scenario - OBS Source IEA WEO 2009 For electricity sector world wide Transmission = 2 100 billion US$ or > 100 billion US$ per year Distribution = 4 500 billion US$ or ~225 billion US$ per year Production = 7 125 billion US$ or ~350 billion US$ per year Bild 34

Många år av lunk-betonad utveckling i det svenska elsystemet omprövas nu Elutveckling 1909-2009 och mot 2030 à 50 150 TWh De nya utmaningarna kräver inte bara tekniker, de kräver uppfinnare och entreprenörer 125 TWh 100 TWh 75 TWh 50 TWh 25 TWh Pionjärfas Mer Vindkraft, Solkraft, Bio och kanske Kärnkraft Mer Smartgrid, mer nät Mer Elbilar, Värmepumpar och styrbar förbrukning Mer handel och utlandsnät Mer konkurrens m.m. 1910 1940 1970 2000 Pionjärfas Expansionsfas Marknadsfas Klimat- och smartfasen Copyright Power Circle, research coh bildbearbetning genom konsult Bild 35

In conclusion 1. The electricity sector is a key to reduce carbon levels. 2. Smart-Grids are key to make it all work 3. Few Smart-Grid solutions may be possible to copy as they generally speaking depend on local conditions but ideas may be exported Electricity is set to become the preferred energy carrier and it will deliver Bild 36