Money system oil and environment Basic needs for a sound economy Peak oil in economic terms The function of modern money systems Future beyond Peak oil
Ecological Environmental economics economics Based on an interest in adapting economic theory to the laws of nature Trying to specify the correct theory, model or system. Based on an interest to include environmental problems into conventional economic theory Trying to specify the correct marketprice of environmental problems 2
An economy based on thermodynamic law Carnivores Energy flow Herbivores Vegetables 3
An economy based on thermodynamic law Economic system Energy flow Cultural system Natural system 4
An economy based on thermodynamic law Financial capital Man-made capital Energy flow Human capital Natural capital 5
Todays economy is not based on thermodynamic law Financial capital Man-made capital Human capital Natural capital 6
The economic system 7
Oil peak 8
Future oil prices 9
Future change in oil price Price Supply Demand Quantity 10
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What is the money system affecting? The money system 12
Where is the money created????? 13
Who do everybody owe money? 14
Coins, bills and digital money Total moneystock of Swedish crones 1 200 1 100 1 000 Value in milliard SEK 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 M0 M3 200 100 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Year
This is how our money is created Lisa Anna 100 kr Bengt 100 kr 100 kr 100 kr 16
Total moneystock and total debt Debt in milliard SEK 37 500 35 000 32 500 30 000 27 500 25 000 22 500 20 000 17 500 15 000 12 500 10 000 7 500 5 000 2 500 0 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 Year 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 Total debt Debt of loan M 3 Other depts Trade credits Insurance savings Fonds Other shares and holdings Stocks Leasing Financial derivates Bonds Loans of combines Loans Certificates Deposits Bills Coins 17
What is the money system affecting? Deficient amount of money Inflation Increasing moneystock The money system Transfer of money from borrowers to lenders Increasing indebtness Free incomes for lending businesses 18
What is the money system affecting? War Weakened democracy Slumps and booms Decreasing real sector Debttrap Growing finacial sector Deficient amount of money Inflation Increasing unemployment Increasing moneystock The money system Transfer of money from borrowers to lenders Demand on more economic growth Increasing indebtness Free incomes for lending businesses Increasing national debt Environmental destruction Deregulation Overproduction Increased gaps in assets Dependence of fossil fuels Export oriented economies Deficiency of money in rural areas 19
The money system Economic growth Ägg Drake A money system where the use of interest and debt is based more on free choice Economic growth on natures terms, alternatively an economy more focused on stationary state than growth 20
System dynamics and economy 21
Future beyond peak oil Increasing oil prices means inflation The economic growth stops Obvious risk for hyperinflation and monetary collapses Tough times, but a possibillity for a restart 22
Future beyond peak oil The price of energy increases in relation to the price of labour This means a huge depression Inflation and the economic crises will slowly increase the price of labour relatively to the price of energy This means a restart for the economy on a more sustainable basis 23
Future beyond peak oil Higher oil prices will rebalance the capital distribution in the economy. The amount of financial capital will decrease relatively to other types of capital. This means an incentive to create a more balanced economy, according to thermodynamic laws The end result of this will also depend on the ability of society to create better controls of financial activities and a more juste monetary system 24
Future beyond peak oil Key changes in the future economy will be: A shift towards low energy technology (a pessimistic technology view) A shift towards smal scale and relocated processing industries A shift towards more human and animal labour A reversed urbanisation trend This means an economy where humans and nature are needed and treated with respect 25
Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works. John Stuart Mill, Political economist (1806-1873) 26
Skuldsättning per sektor 2007 13000 12000 11000 10000 Skuld i miljarder kr 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 Övriga skulder Lån 2000 1000 0 Företag Finansiella företag Offentlig sektor Sektor Hushåll Utlandet 27
Räntans omfördelning av tillgångar 28
Skuldfällan Det finns över 400 000 överskuldsatta människor i Sverige idag (2008), enligt uppgift från Kronofogdemyndigheten. I Rommarriket fanns det fyra kategorier av slavar. En av de fyra kategorierna kallades Nexus. Nexus definerades som människor som var tvungna att arbeta för att betala av en skuld. 29
Vad skapar inflation? Penningmängd i M0 och M3 1 200 1 100 1 000 900 Överskott på pengar Värde (miljarder kr) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 M0 M3 Dyrare produktion Självförstärkande p.g.a ränta och skatter 100 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 År 1986 1991 1996 2001 30
Överföring av tillgångar Räntebetalare Räntemottagare Överföringen motsvarar ränteskillnaden mellan inlåning och utlåning Reell sektor Finansiell sektor Total negativ bytesbalans på 3-4%, Säkrare avkastning, Alternativräntan Skattebetalare Finansiell sektor Räntebetalningar på statsobligationer, Stöd vid finansiella kriser Användare av pengar Placerare och utgivare Konjunktursvängningar och inflation Svenska valutaområdet Amerikanska valutaområdet Krona-dollar betalningsbalans, Riksbankens reserv av dollar 31