Wider Benefit analysis for the transport corridor Oslo- Stockholm, preliminary results
THE PROJECT OSLO-STOCKHOLM 2.55 2
Reoriented more direct rail connection with greater capacity Today 572 km New 498 km Existing double track 171 km New Line double track 165 km Additional track beside existing 162 km 3
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Passenger Rail product concepts Inter City Express Regional Express Dep. 1 hour frequency 4-5 stops 250 km/h top speed 2 h 55 min Direct service morning and late afternoons 2 h 40 min Dep. 1 hour frequency 20 stops 200 km/h top speed ½ hour frequency morning and late afternoons GENDIATUR, QUE REIUNT EXPLABO. UT ASINCTIIS DE VOLLACCAB ISUNT ET EOS QUATIANDANDI DELLECU LLUPTIIST 7
Passenger Rail Traffic Network Objective Goal for city city travel time 8
Traveling time comparizon (1) car - train today - new project 420 360 Restid bil Restid tåg O-S 2.55 300 240 180 120 60 0 Oslo-Stockholm Oslo-Karlstad Oslo-Örebro Oslo-Västerås Oslo-Eskilstuna 9
Traveling time (2) car train today new project 360 300 240 180 120 60 0 Karlstad-Örebro Karlstad-Västerås Karlstad-Stockholm Örebro-Västerås Örebro-Stockholm Västerås-Stockholm Eskilstuna-Oslo Eskilstuna-Karlstad Restid bil Restid tåg O-S 2.55 10
Benefits with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 wider geo sustainable growth regions two capitals and three of the greatest Scandinavian country regions will form a new corridor region 11
Strategic Objective for Freight Rail Higher Train Loads Longer train lenght 750 m Higher axleloads 25 t Higher meterweight 8, 4 t/m On time delivery Higher line capacity More flexible timetabels Higher costefficiency Shorter lean times in freight terminal access and departure Shorter turn arounds Higher utility of rolling stock 12
BENEFIT ANALYSIS 13
Wider benefit analysis - Travel time savings - Benefits for the labor market - Benefits for the business sector - Real Estate and Housing benefits - Social benefits - Benefits for the integration - Study benefits - Environmental benefits 14
From infrastructure to wider social economic development Idea stage > PFS > PEA > FS Market for travel and transportation Regional conditions + Strategic Local investments Infrastructure Traffic system Accessibility Development! Optimization and funding Benefits a. Real Estate development b. Travel time savings c. Labor market d. Business sector e. Environment f. Social benefits 15
The more people the more development Size Number of sectors Competition Employment Entrepreneurship Innovations Wage level/productivity Health Public service Level of education Energy efficiency Etc. Population/ Population density
The larger the region, the more industries and labour bransches 1,0 0,9 Branschbredd (andel av totala antalet branscher) 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 10 000 100 000 1 000 000 10 000 000 Befolkningsmängd i så kallade "Funktionella Analys-regioner 2014 Data: SCB 17
Örebro Region local labour market 1996 2006 2013 2015 Askersund Askersund Askersund Askersund Hallsberg Hallsberg Hallsberg Degerfors Kumla Kumla Kumla Hallsberg Lekeberg Laxå Laxå Hällefors Lindesberg Lekeberg Lekeberg Karlskoga Nora Lindesberg Lindesberg Kumla Örebro Nora Nora Laxå Örebro Örebro Lekeberg Lindesberg Nora Storfors Örebro 19
Västerås Region local labour market 1996 2006 2013 2015 Hallstahammar Arboga Arboga Arboga Sala Hallstahammar Hallstahammar Hallstahammar Surahammar Kungsör Kungsör Kungsör Västerås Köping Köping Köping Sala Sala Sala Surahammar Surahammar Surahammar Västerås Västerås Västerås 20
TRAIN 2016 Travel time in minutes Oslo Lilleström Arvika Karlstad Örebro Västerås Stockholm C Oslo 0 31 109 151 280 330 315 Lilleström 31 0 140 180 275 330 335 Arvika 110 160 0 50 160 260 230 Kil 164 195 30 23 115 210 185 Karlstad 151 195 60 0 100 140 180 Kristinehamn 190 220 85 20 70 160 138 Karlskoga/Degerf 205 160 115 45 50 145 120 Örebro 250 280 145 95 0 50 110 Västerås 340 370 195 140 50 0 55 Stockholm C 315 350 205 150 120 60 0 TRAIN 2040 Travel time in minutes Oslo Lilleström Arvika Karlstad Örebro Västerås Stockholm C Oslo 0 9 43 62 98 134 175 Lilleström 9 0 34 53 89 125 166 Arvika 43 34 0 32 68 104 144 Kil 67 58 23 8 44 80 121 Karlstad 62 53 32 0 35 72 112 Kristinehamn 82 73 52 20 29 65 105 Karlskoga/Degerf 93 84 63 30 18 54 95 Örebro 98 89 68 35 0 36 76 Västerås 134 125 104 72 36 0 40 Stockholm C 175 166 144 112 76 40 0 21
Today 2 t 30 min 1 t 40 min 50 min 55 min Oslo C 195 000 294 000 244 000 Sthlm C 22
Today 2 t 30 min 1 t 40 min 50 min 55 min Oslo C 195 000 294 000 244 000 Sthlm C Tomorrow 1 t 02 min 35 min 30 min 42 min Oslo C 195 000 294 000 244 000 Sthlm C 23
Travel and calculated net present values travel time savings Number of train journeys / year JA 2040 UA 2040 Alternation Regional, national ~65 billion ~87 billion +34 % International ~385 000 ~2,9 billion +750 % 24
A socioeconomic calculation with some limitations for freight - net present values Effect Value Sweden, billion crowns Value Norway, billion crowns Total value, billion crowns Producer excess 8 542 12 402 20 950 Budget effects 442 590 1 032 Consumer excess 23 492 15 483 38 975 External effects 408 3 791 4 199 D&U, reinvestments 168 1 846 2 014 Sum 33 052 34 111 67 170 25
Increased job availability within 60 minutes County JA UA Increase UA to JA Stockholm 1 595 700 1 605 800 1% Västerås 215 600 248100 15% Örebro 129 000 245 000 90% Lekeberg 71 600 71 600 0% Degerfors 23 800 87 800 268% Karlskoga 70 000 83 400 19% Kristinehamn 48 400 115 800 139% Karlstad 66 400 107 000 61% Arvika 14 200 46 500 228% SUM 2 234 800 2 611 000 17 % 26
Labor market and business benefits Increase in number of jobs 2036-2045 Increase in salary year 2045 with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 (Mkr) Increase in business benefits year 2045 with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 (Mkr) Karlstad ~9 300 185 200 Örebro ~18 900 157 151 Västerås ~12 800 27 20 Summa 41 000 Ca 370 Mkr Ca 370 Mkr Accumulated contribution to the gross region product during the period 2036-2045: approximately 5,2 billion 27
Forecast freight flows per year railway (kton/year) 2012 2040 1 135 2 338 1 494 1 688 655 894 685 2 964 2 799 1 511 1 394 870 6 991 11 388 Source: Trafikverket, Basprognos 2040 28
Forecast number of road trucks per day 2012 2040 ~700 ~800 ~2 200 ~1 200 ~1 000 ~1 500 ~1 000 ~1 500 ~1 200 ~3 900 ~2 900 ~1 100 ~1 700 ~1 700 Source: Trafikverket, Basprognos 2040 29
Freight flows 2040 (kton/year) Railway Road 2 338 2 964 2 799 1 511 1 394 870 232 0 2 513 9 535 11 120 8 108 9 133 27 196 21 210 7 277 11 266 11 702 11 388 26 592 Källa: Trafikverket, Basprognos 2040 30
Benefits for freight transport Shorter transport distance for especially InterModal Trains on the short cut line Arvika ( Se)- Lilleström (No) ( - 65 km) Shorter turn arounds and higher fleet utility with better access to freight terminals Shorter Transport time with due to reduced no of stops under way (0,5-1 h) Higher Reliability and lower transport costs Higher axleloads and meterweight will increase the train net load More flexible logistics due to higher line capacity Longer trains 750 m will increase the train net load Source: Trafikverket 31
The freight operators are represented with licence in both countries 32
Attractivity Housing benefits Consumption of housing Productivity Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 Access to housing Well-being Demand New housing UA Alternation Increase in value Karlstad 23 000 + 15 % 500 830 Mkr Örebro 35 000 + 13 % 840 1 400 Mkr Västerås 37 400 + 7 % 590 960 Mkr Not: the numbers should be seen as potential, not as a forecast. 33
Social benefits Based on the human needs Better housing, improved study and work opportunities, a richer leisure Benefits for as many people as possible Including, not excluding More fair resource allocation, strengthening equality and gender equality The social capital is strengthened: Trust can be improved Exclusion is reduced The unhealthy total is reduced Greater satisfaction and increased confidence in the future Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 is expected to generate several different social benefits. 34
Possible integration benefits Remain in smaller municipalities and small towns after permanent residence Easier to visit relatives and compatriots Expanded labor market Better opportunities for adequate care Increased opportunities to participate in community and community life Increased housing construction can reduce housing shortage and narrow housing Improved communications creates self-esteem and satisfaction 35
Student perspective Factors Supply of education Regional attractiveness Further education of professionals Collaboration with working life Impact + ++ ++ + Distance education (+). International students (+) Recruitment of staff ++ Recruitment of students + Business perspective Collaboration with Swedish universities + International collaborations (+) Collaboration companies public and non-profit sectors. + Increased education level in the region (+) Social perspective Competence supply of companies, public and non-profit sectors (+) Innovations and new business (+) 36
Environmental benefits 37
Norwegian Swedish exchange Municipality Labor market Border trade Tourism Oslo Strengthened. Common labor market with Karlstad in certain professions. Easier commuting from Western Värmland. Weekly commuting Oslo-Stockholm is facilitated. Strengthened. As a capital, Oslo exerts an attraction for trade based on supply rather than price. Strengthens. Norwegian-Swedish ownership and investment Strengthens. Export and import Certain reinforcement through more common services market. Karlstad Strengthened. Common labor market with Oslo in certain professions. Strengthens. Strengthens. Strengthens. Strengthened through more common services market. Örebro Weak effect, weekly commuting easier. No effect. Opportunity to develop Opportunity to develop. Strengthened through more common services market. Västerås Significant effect, weekly commuting easier. No effect. Some opportunity to develop Possibility to develop with the help of strong brands. Certain reinforcement through more common services market. Stockholm Weekly commuting Olso-Stockholm easier. No effect. Strengthens. Insignificant effect. Insignificant effect. 38
Benefits with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 39