Utmaningar och Möjligheter med storskalig produktion av biodrivmedel i tropiska länder Biodrivmedel i energieffektiva fordon och vägen till hållbara transporter. Världen satsar stort vilket roll vill Sverige spela? BAFF workshop 18e juni 2007 Johan Rockström Director Stockholm Environment Institute & 1 2 Globala drivkrafter DRIVKRAFTER Snabb ekonomisk tillväxt (40 % snabbare än befolkningsökning sedan 1950) Fortsatt befolkningsökning (95 % i utvecklingsländer) Förändrade dieter Energibehov från biomassa Fattigdom och undernäring (850 Miljoner undernärda, 1.1 Miljarder fattiga) 70 % fattiga på landsbygden Klimatförändring Utarmning av ekosystemtjänster 3 4 Global miljöförändring oroande trender Kilimanjaro 1970 Kilimanjaro 2000 Courtesy Will Steffen, 2006 5 6 1
Global energy consumption (2001) Other New 5% Modern bioenergy 11% Traditional biomass 68% Large hydro 16% Biomass 11% Nuclear 7% Other 3% Coal 22% Oil 35% Natural gas 22% 7 Sub-Saharan Africa energy consumption (2001) Excluding South Africa Nuclear 0% Oil 13% Gas 3% 8 Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004 Hydro 2% Coal 11% combustible and waste 71% Hydro 1% Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004 Including South Africa Coal 21% Nuclear 1% Oil 13% Gas 3% combustible and waste 61% Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios (EJ/year) (scenarios of different farming system mixes, animal production mixes) Det tropiska argumentet 9 harvesting residues bioenergy crops 111 137 4 34 315 North America 253 178 46 Caribean & Latin America 32 40 14 0 W.Europe 1 8 14 17 32 39 1 2 E.Europe Near East & 410 North Africa 331 41 sub-saharan Africa 136 111 68 221 2 178 CIS & Baltic States 10 21 00000 0 0 0 East Asia Japan 14 21 21 24 South Asia 100 125 60 15 Oceania Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski March 2004 A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional Stockholm availability Resilience of biomass resources for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109. Centre 10 149 Potential in Oceania is 4-6 times projected primary energy use Crop Comparison of biofuel yields Seed yield (t/ha) Crop yield (t/ha) Biofuel yield (litre/ha) Energy yield (GJ/ha) Employment Generation and Sustainable Livelihoods (calculations are for Brazil) Sugarcane (juice) Palm oil Sweet sorghum Maize Jatropha 9800 740 100 70 60 7 7500 3000 4200 2500 700 157.5 105.0 88.2 52.5 24.5 Jobs Created per equivalent energy output (Oil = 1) 152 Oil 1 Hydroelectric 3 Coal 4 Cost of creating various jobs by industry type (1000 USD) Chemical Metallurgy Capital goods Consumer goods Soybean 480 500 17.5 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 250 Source: Goldemberg, Jose (2002) 11 12 2
GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% -120% from grains, US/EU from sugar beets, EU from sugar cane, Brazil Biodiesel from from cellulosic rapeseed, feedstocks EU 13 A resilience and vulnerability approach to sustainability 14 Resilience provides capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function provides components for renewal and reorganisation following disturbance sustains capacity for adaptation and learning www.resalliance.org 15 Ekosystemtjänster Den välfärd ekosystem generar för oss människor 16 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Några nyckelslutsatser 60 % av studerade ekosystemtjänster utarmade under senaste 50 åren Att undvika sårbara lösningar Example: Levees on river systems increase risk of catastrophic floods More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850 20% of the world s coral reefs were lost and 20% degraded in the last decades 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last decades Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960 17 Photos: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 18 3
National rainfall index: Variation from trend (mm) Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 -100-150 Agrarian Economies remain dependent on rainfall National rainfall index Cereal production 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400 Total cereal production - Variation from trend ('000 tons) Projected Blue Water Scarcity 2025 IWMI Podium analysis (de Fraiture, et al, 2000) 1/3rd of world population suffering from water scarcity already today 2000 2025-200 -600-250 Years -800 19 20 Environmental Water Stress Source: CA study by IWMI, WRI, Kassel University, CA RR #2 21 22 Water for Food needs to meet the hunger MDG 10 000 Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015 8 000 2002 base line 6 000 km 3 4 000 2 000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 year 2015 2030 2050 Data from A.Dai, 2005 23 24 4
Freshwater requirements all Developing countries Var finns möjligheterna, och var finns riskerna? 2200 km 3 /yr new water 2005-2015 25 26 Dependence on green and blue water 2000 654 219 787 Agriculture is today one of the major forces behind global change, occupying 35% of the land area 239 1692 and it is by far the largest consumer of blue water withdrawal (70%), also altering water quality substantially Areas in green: agriculture mainly under rainfed Areas in blue: agriculture mainly under irrigation 907 1080 1505 114 Circles depict total crop depletion August 2006 27 28 Foley et al. 2005 Country/Region Markanvändning för skog och jordbruk, 2004 UNITS: Total Land Area Million ha Forest Area Agricultural Areas Cultivated Area Million ha share of total land area Million ha share of total land area Million ha share of total land area Total SADC 964 368 38% 433 45% 53 5,5% Brazil 846 544 64% 264 31% 67 7,9% China 933 163 18% 555 59% 155 16,6% India 297 64 22% 181 61% 170 57,1% United States 916 226 25% 409 45% 176 19,2% EU-15 313 116 37% 140 45% 85 27,0% 29 Nord-Syd handel med biomassa: konflikt eller Synergi? marknad eller miljö? handel eller bistånd? lokalt eller globalt? mat eller bränsle? teknik eller beteende? effektivitet eller rättvisa? industri eller samhället? capital eller arbeta? 30 5
Bio-etanol från Sugarcane + Sweet sorghum FAOSTAT Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa Legend SLCR Pixels Annual Rainfall <800mm Annual Rainfall >800mm 31-0 200 400 32 600 Kilometres Figure 5:12: SLCR Pixels and Annual Rainfall Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa Legend SLCR Areas International Areas National Areas (No Categories) National Areas (IUCN Categorised) Utmaningar, exemplet Rufiji One of the most striking changes in the River Basin is the flows to Ruaha National Park from 35 cumecs to 0 in the dry season The abstractin of water for irrigation is the main cause of these problems in the dry seasons. Not deforestation, pastoralism or decreased rainfall as previously thought. (IUCN, REMP report) - 0 200 400 600 33 Research for governance of social-ecological Kilometres systems 34 Figure 5.3: Distribution of Protected Areas and SLCR Pixels Nord-Syd-Syd samarbete Möjligheter Biomassa i syd (tropisk) är genomsnittlig 5x mer produktiv Landsbyggdsutveckling Effektivare användning-begränsade global resursbas Energi säkerhet Export utveckling samtidigt stimuleras inrikesmarknad Förbättrad hälso (inomhus miljö, ersättning av bly, ) Luftkvalitet Industri utveckling Klimat minska CO2 utsläpp Nya möjligheter för bönder, kvinnor, entrepreneurer Regional utveckling Fred: genom minskning av oljas vikt i världsekonomin 35 Nord-Syd-Syd samarbete Risker Utarmning av ekosystem, system kollaps pga storskaliga monokulturer Marginalisering av fattiga småskaliga bönder Ny typ av sårbarhet för svaga ekonomier (beroende av global efterfrågan, subventioner) Osäker långsiktig hållbarhet Geopolitiskt spel 36 6
Sugarcane characterisation of highest potential areas (Sources: SEI-led, EC-funded CARENSA project Land remaining during successive screening steps in the identification of suitable sugarcane growing regions (km2) Malawi Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Total Total land area 94 080 784 090 883 590 743 390 2 505 150 Step in Analyses Overall suitability - Seasonal Land Cover Regions (from Miombo data set) 7 422 49 064 4 639 35 460 96 585 Protected Areas (IUCN and national categorisations) 5 954 46 021 4 029 24 334 80 338 Steep Slopes (> 16%) 5 804 45 297 3 989 24 265 79 355 Global Land Cover (soils, competing uses) 3 161 37 734 2 642 17 259 60 796 Existing Sugarcane Farms 3 142 37 705 2 642 17 259 60 748 contiguous areas smaller than 500ha 2 559 34 699 1 774 14 850 53 882 Unsuitable Soils 2 060 23 382 1 342 11 777 38 561 Share of total 3.3% 4.8% 0.3% 2.3% 2.4% 37 Source-1: Watson, H.K. and Baijnath, S. (forthcoming) Expansion potential of sugar cane in southern Africa bioenergy implications. Source-2: Johnson et al (forthcoming) "Cane Energy for Sustainable Development and Economic Competitiveness in Southern Africa" 38 7