Interim Report. January September Lennart Evrell. Johan Fant. Bildplatshållare. President & CEO CFO Boliden AB 1

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Transkript:

Boliden AB 1 Interim Report January September 29 Bildplatshållare Lennart Evrell President & CEO Johan Fant CFO

Boliden AB 2 Third quarter 29 Market Strong Chinese demand Global demand:* Zinc: -7% YoY and +5% from Q2-9 Copper: -9% YoY and -3% from Q2-9 High copper and zinc prices Re-starts of zinc smelter and mine capacity Tight supply of copper concentrates pressure on TC/RC Higher prices for by-products Stronger SEK * Source: CRU, Boliden calculations

Boliden AB 3 Third quarter 29 Boliden Revenues MSEK 6,96 (7,513) Operating profit MSEK 949 (-142) Operating profit excl. process inventory revaluation MSEK 734 (125) Higher than average grades lower towards end of period Industrial zinc sales increased Q3 vs Q2 Zinc smelters on full production: +13% Q3 vs Q2 Copper smelters on reduced production Aitik expansion on plan Cash flow MSEK 61 (-117)

Boliden AB 4 Group EBIT development MSEK 25 2 Quarterly EBIT Quarterly EBIT excl PIR* 15 1 5 Q17 Q27 Q37 Q47 Q18 Q28 Q38 Q48 Q19 Q29 Q39-5 * EBIT excl Process Inventory Revaluation

The Market Boliden AB 5

Boliden AB 6 Global IP slowly improving Global IP * 1. 5. Year over year %. -5. -1. -15. Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Source: Reuters Ecowin, Boliden calculations Based on: USA, Eurozone, China and Japan, GDP (PPP) weighted

Boliden AB 7 IP China grows, mature countries slowly improving 2 1 Year over year % -1-2 -3-4 Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 6 7 8 9 Eurozone (Seas. adj.) - Manufacturing Japan (Seas. adj.) - Manufacturing USA (Seas. adj.) - Manufacturing China (value added) - total industry Source: Reuters EcoWin

Boliden AB 8 China dominates base metals demand 28 Q2 29 Zinc North America 12% Other 8% China 34% North America 1% Europe 19% Other 7% China 42% Europe 23% Source: Cru Other Asia 23% Source: Cru Other Asia 22% North America 13% Other 6% China 27% North America 11% Other 6% China 34% Copper Europe 26% Europe 22% Other Asia 28% Source: esimtates by CRU Other Asia 27% Source: Cru

Boliden AB 9 Zinc positive trend continues Tonnes USD/Tonne 9 5 Zinc price (LME average) 8 7 6 5 4 3 Quarterly average 4 5 4 3 5 3 2 5 2 1 5 USD/t Q3-9 vs period Q3 8 1,773-1% Q4 8 1,189 + 48% Q1 9 1,174 + 5% Q2 9 1,476 + 19% Q3 9 1,757-2 1 1 5 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Zinc price over 2, USD/tonne in October Inventories increasing Price development leads to supply increase

Boliden AB 1 Zinc TCs up and premiums flat USD/ t of concentrate 6 5 4 3 2 1 Zinc treatment charge (TC) Realised in Q3 based on quarter to date zinc price 26 27 28 29 USD per tonne of metal 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Zinc metal price premium 25 26 27 28 29 Source: Brook Hunt, CRU Realised TC (including price participation) Spot TC - Asia Source: CRU, Brook Hunt US Midwest Delivered Europe ex-works Far East (Western) Concentrate availability higher spot TC higher Realised TC up as the zinc price increased Premiums flat, sales to industrial buyers higher

Boliden AB 11 Copper continued price increases Tonnes USD/Tonne 1 1 Copper price (LME average) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Quarterly average 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 USD/t Q3-9 vs period Q3 8 7,693-24% Q4 8 3,94 + 48% Q1 9 3,435 + 7% Q2 9 4,676 + 25% Q3 9 5,84-2 2 1 1 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Boliden copper price hedge contracts: Coverage rate approximately 65%* USD prices 5,757 and 7,66 in 29 and 21 respectively * Of outstanding metal positions in 29-21 based on forecasted production

Boliden AB 12 Copper - continued pressure on spot TC/RC USD/t of concentrate 12 Copper treatment charge USD per tonne of metal 2 Copper metal price premium 1 8 6 4 Benchmark 29 16 12 8 2 4 26 27 28 29 25 26 27 28 29 TC spot China buying terms TC benchmark Spot Copper premium CIF W. Europe Benchmark CIF Europe Source: CRU Source: CRU, Brook Hunt Tight market for copper concentrate put pressure on TC/RC Scrap market remained tight Mine production unchanged - smelter output reduced Less tight metals market - premiums slightly lower

By-products Lead Gold Silver Tonnes USD/Tonne USD/oz USD/oz 2 4 5 1 2 25 18 4 1 1 1 16 2 3 5 9 14 3 8 12 7 15 2 5 1 6 2 5 8 1 6 1 5 4 3 1 4 2 2 5 1 jul-9 apr-9 jan-9 okt-8 jul-8 apr-8 jan-8 okt-7 jul-7 apr-7 jan-7 okt-6 jul-6 apr-6 jan-6 okt-5 jul-5 apr-5 jan-5 okt-4 jul-4 apr-4 jan-4 okt-3 jul-3 apr-3 jan-3 jul-6 apr-6 jan-6 okt-5 jul-5 apr-5 jan-5 okt-4 jul-4 apr-4 jan-4 okt-3 jul-3 apr-3 jan-3 jul-9 apr-9 jan-9 okt-8 jul-8 apr-8 jan-8 okt-7 jul-7 apr-7 jan-7 okt-6 Boliden AB 13 5 jul-9 apr-9 jan-9 okt-8 jul-8 apr-8 jan-8 okt-7 jul-7 apr-7 jan-7 okt-6 jul-6 apr-6 jan-6 okt-5 jul-5 apr-5 jan-5 okt-4 jul-4 apr-4 jan-4 okt-3 jul-3 apr-3 jan-3 Substantially higher prices But only lead higher in SEK

Boliden AB 14 SEK further strengthened vs the USD USD/SEK EURO/SEK 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 USD/SEK (quarterly average) USD/SEK Q3-9 vs period Q3 8 6.31 + 16% Q4 8 7.79-6% Q1 9 8.4-13% Q2 9 7.92-8% Q3 9 7.29-5 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 EUR/SEK EURO/SEK Q average USD/SEK USD/SEK Q average USD/SEK hedge contracts (forward) Rates are 8.42 and 8.26 for 29 and 21 respectively Sold volumes 112 and 688 MSEK for 29 and 21 respectively

Boliden AB 15 Business area Mines

Boliden AB 16 Mines EBIT development Higher than average head grades, peaking in Q3 Higher metal prices Lower zinc and lead volumes but higher for other metals MSEK 12 1 8 6 Quarterly EBIT 4 2 Q16 Q26 Q36 Q46 Q17 Q27 Q37 Q47 Q18 Q28 Q38 Q48 Q19 Q29 Q39

Boliden AB 17 Mines zinc production Comments on Q3 29 versus Q2 29 Tara High grades compensated for lower milled production Start-up problems with new mill. Will also impact Q4 Garpenberg High grades compensated for lower milled production Lower grades and hard ore at end of quarter Boliden area Metal content down, lower grades and milled production Milled ore, ktonnes 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Milled ore Zinc metal content Zinc metal content, tonnes 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

Boliden AB 18 Mines - Production and grades tonnes GARPENBERG tonnes TARA 3 9,% 6 1,% 25 8,% 7,% 5 9,% 8,% 2 15 1 5 Q1-7 Q2-7 Q3-7 Q4-7 Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9 6,% 5,% 4,% 3,% 2,% 1,%,% 4 3 2 1 Q1-7 Q2-7 Q3-7 Q4-7 Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9 7,% 6,% 5,% 4,% 3,% 2,% 1,%,% Metal content, Zn (t) Ore grades, Zn act. Ore reserve grade, Zn ave. Metal content, Zn (t) Ore grades, Zn act. Ore reserve grade, Zn ave. tonnes AITIK tonnes BOLIDEN AREA 16,35% 14 6,% 14,3% 12 5,% 12,25% 1 8 6 4,% 3,% 1 8 6,2%,15% 4 2,% 4,1% 2 1,% 2,5% Q1-7 Q2-7 Q3-7 Q4-7 Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9,% Q1-7 Q2-7 Q3-7 Q4-7 Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9,% Metal content, Zn (t) Ore grades, Zn act. Ore reserve grade, Zn ave. Metal content, Cu (t) Ore grades, Cu act. Ore reserve grade, Cu ave.

Boliden AB 19 Mines copper production Comments on Q3 29 versus Q2 29 Aitik 6, High grades, peaked in Q3 Metal content increased from a strong Q2 29 Boliden area Mill production from inventory, metal content lower 5, 4, 3, 2, Milled ore, ktonnes Copper metal content, tonnes 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 1, 4, 2, Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Milled ore (Aitik) Copper metal content

Boliden AB 2 AITIK production areas S2

Boliden AB 21 AITIK production areas 6 7

Boliden AB 22 AITIK copper mine expansion Project is on plan In operation from April 1, 21 Mined ore from 18 to 36 Mtonnes in 214 Copper volumes +5% Life of mine extended to 226

Boliden AB 23 Business area Smelters

Boliden AB 24 Smelters EBIT development Increased zinc production Lower cost YTD Improved metal prices for zinc smelters Difficult market conditions affecting copper smelters MSEK 2 15 1 5 Quarterly EBIT Quarterly EBIT excl PIR* Q16 Q26 Q36 Q46 Q17 Q27 Q37 Q47 Q18 Q28 Q38 Q48 Q19 Q29 Q39-5 * EBIT excl Process Inventory Revaluation

Boliden AB 25 Zinc metal production up Comments on Q3 29 versus Q2 29 Odda Metal production +14% Back to full capacity in September Kokkola Metal production +12% Back to full capacity in August Zinc feed, tonnes 25, 2, 15, 1, Zinc metal prod, tonnes 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 5, 2, Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Zinc feed, total Zinc metal production

Boliden AB 26 Copper Smelters on reduced production Comments on Q3 29 versus Q2 29 Rönnskär Stable production Harjavalta Reduced production Extended maintenance stop Bergsöe (lead) Maintenance stop Shortage of all feeds Copper feed, tonnes 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Copper cathode prod, tonnes 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Copper feed, total Copper cathode production

Financials Boliden AB 27

Boliden AB 28 Financial summary MSEK Q3 9 Q3 8 YTD 9 YTD 8 Revenues 6,96 7,513 19,279 24,7 Operating profit (EBIT) 949-142 2,391 1,495 EBIT excl Process Inventory Revaluation 734 125 1,48 1,582 EBIT Margin % * 11% 2% 8% 6% Free cash flow 61-117 -1,298 1,371 Earnings per share, SEK 2.5 -.49 6.14 5.7 Gearing 48% 37% * EBIT Margin excl Process Inventory Revaluation

Boliden AB 29 Group EBIT Q3 29 versus Q3 28 and Q2 29 MSEK Q3 29 Q3 28 Q2 29 EBIT 949-142 654 Process Inventory Revaluation 215-267 177 EBIT excl Process Inventory Revaluation 734 125 477 Deviation 69 257 Specification of deviation: Volume 91 153 Costs 6-53 Prices & Terms 361 424 Metal prices and terms 198 487 Realised Metal- Currency hedge 173-61 TC/RC terms 41 32 Premiums -51-18 Definitive pricing (MAMA) -16 Currency effects 163-261 whereof translation effects 14-1 Others -12-6 Deviation 69 257 Increased Production in zinc smelters and high production and grades in Aitik Average Cu up 25% Average Zn up 19% Average USD/SEK down -8% Effect in each quarter Realised Metal-, Currency hedge 32-141 93 Definitive pricing (MAMA) 14 14 3

Boliden AB 3 Group EBIT YTD 29 versus YTD 28 MSEK 29 28 EBIT 2,391 1,495 Process Inventory revaluation 911-87 EBIT excl Process Inventory Revaluation 1,48 1,582 Deviation -12 Specification of deviation: Volume 8 Costs 236 Prices & Terms -1,549 Metal prices and terms -2,2 Realised Metal- Currency hedge 839 TC/RC terms 47 Premiums -246 Definitive pricing (MAMA) 11 Currency effects 1,238 whereof translation effects 1 Others -35 Deviation -12 Costs in local currency down -3% Average Cu down - 41% Average Zn down -3% Higher spot sales Average USD/SEK up 27% Effect in each quarter Realised Metal-, Currency hedge 315-524 Definitive pricing (MAMA) 3 19

Boliden AB 31 EBIT per Business Area MSEK Q3 9 Q3 8 YTD 9 YTD 8 Smelters excl Process Inventory Revaluation 11 15 95 873 Mines 727 74 1,618 731 Other -94-99 -232-22 EBIT excl Process Inventory Revaluation 734 125 1,48 1,582 EBIT 949-142 2,391 1,495 Higher value in Others YTD due to profit elimination in internal sales

Boliden AB 32 Operating costs impacted by weaker SEK Change in operating costs, local currencies YTD 29 vs 28 Share of total operating costs YTD Energy -3% Consumables -% Personnel expenses -% Transport costs -15% External services -13% Depreciation & other +1% Exte rnal services; 17% De preciation & other ; 13% Energy; 18% Total operating cost in local currency Total operating cost in SEK -3% +3% Transport; 5% Consumables ; 18% Personnel; 29% Total MSEK 7,759 YTD

Boliden AB 33 Cash flow MSEK Q3 9 Q3 8 YTD 9 YTD 8 Op profit before depreciation (EBITDA)* 1,34 28 3,565 2,553 Changes in working capital* 211 1,85-1,163 2,37 Capital expenditure -1,81-1,157-3,646-3,91 whereof Aitik 36-565 -678-2,317-1,736 Free cash flow 61-117 -1,298 1,371 *Includes Process Inventory Revaluation Inventory value decreased by 124 MSEK from Q2 29 Aitik 36 capital expenditure of 565 MSEK in Q3 29 (1,15 MSEK in Q2 29)

Boliden AB 34 Capital structure SEK bn 3Sept 3 Sept Unless otherwise stated 29 28 Total Asset 32.2 27. Gearing Capital employed 26. 21.3 Shareholders' equity 1 16. 14.2 6% 5% 52% 55% 48% Net debt 7.6 5.3 4% 37% 39% Gearing % 48 37 3% Equity/asset ratio, % 5 53 2% Average maturity in years 4. 5.1 Average interest rate, % 2.18 5.76 Interest duration, years 2.2.1 1% % Q3 28 Q4 28 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Liquidity reserves 2 6.5 8.4 1. Shareholders equity includes the value of outstanding hedge contracts 2. Defined as unutilised credit lines and cash less outstanding commercial papers

Boliden AB 35 Sensitivity analysis Change in metal prices, +1% EBIT effect, SEK m Change in USD, +1% EBIT effect, SEK m Change in TC/RC, +1% Zinc 485 USD/SEK 7 TC Zn 7 EBIT effect, SEK m Copper 335 EUR/USD 42 TC/RC Cu 6 Lead 15 USD/NOK 95 TC Pb -15 Gold 9 Silver 85 Estimate of the 12-month effect on Group EBIT on September 3 29, based on planned production volumes. Effects of hedging, contracted TC/RC or stock exposures are not taken into account.

Boliden AB 36 To summarize Q3 29 Market Strong Chinese demand High prices Tight market for copper concentrates TC/RC under pressure Zinc re-starts Boliden Strong EBIT and Cash Flow Higher than average head grades peaked in Q3 Stable production Aitik on plan

Boliden AB 37 Going forward Head grades average or below at end of period Increasing exploration activities Commissioning problems with mill in Tara

Boliden AB 38 Forward-looking statements Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking, and the actual outcome could be materially different. Such forward-looking statements are based on Boliden s present plans, estimates, assumptions, projections and expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. In addition to the factors explicitly discussed, other could have a material effect on the actual outcome. Such factors include, but are not limited to, general economic or political conditions, fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates and in metal prices, production disruptions, technological issues, interruptions in supply, actions of courts, regulators, government agencies, competitors, customers, suppliers, employees and other third parties.

Boliden produces metals that make modern life work