Fossilfritt men hur? Styrmedel Thomas Sterner
Disposition 1. IPCC 1,5 grader + Nobelpriset 2. De internationella målen och de Svenska 3. Rockström versus Rossling 4. Varför Pris på CO2 exempel bensinskatt 5. Vad bestämdes i Paris vilken effekt fick det? 6. Litet hopp: Teknisk utveckling (Förnybar energi) 7. Exceptionella utmaningar Stål och Cement etc 8. Pris på CO2 behövs i vilket fall 9. De 2 kriserna 10. Göra själv, LCA, ISO, Svalna, Klimatkoll X (Internationell rättvisa )
Jämför svenska mål 2050 (2045) Netto 0 2030 70%
Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
Also GDP, CO2, CH4, Population Better or Worse? Water Dams Urbanis. Fertilizer Fishing.. Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January 2015. Design: Globaia
The great acceleration and the global food system Image: GLOBAIA
ockström Rossling Life expectancy (years) 100 81 years 80 60 50 years 40 20 0 200 $ Burundi Population (millions) 2000 $ 1000 100 1 Sweden 20 000 $ Income per person (comparable dollars per year)
Price of gasoline Gasoline Consumption 2,5 2 Prix ($/l) 1500 ITALY Consommation (kg/cap) 1,5 UK 1000 USA 1 0,5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 AUSTRALIA USA 500 0 AUSTRALIA 1980 1990 2000 2010 UK ITALY
District heating 1970-2006 2007 54 TWh (+ 32 % > 1990) & Bio 24 70 % 50 % of total heat. 76 % of flats. Biomass,
CO2 per GDP indices 120 100 80 60 40 20 C/Y World C/Y Norway C/Y OECD C/Y US C/Y Denmark C/Y UK C/Y Sweden 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Taxes and Emission Trading Source: State and Trends of Carbon Pricing, May 2014, World Bank
Oil prices, and Various Climate policies
CO2 prices
CO2 prices SWEDISH CARBON TAX
Copenhagen Failed...
Paris: Succé
What Difference COPENHAGEN PARIS Burden Sharing Timeline for emissions reduction Grandfathering vs Equal NO Q NO P 1,5 C UNANIMITY INDC
Stranded Assets
Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election Samson Mukanjari and Thomas Sterner University of Gothenburg April 2018
Effects of Paris climate agreement on energy sector using ETFs Coal Oil Natural Solar Wind Alternative Nuclear Gas Energy CAAR -2,0-4.23% (-2.01)** -1.74% (-0.61) -3.86% (-1.23) 3.63% (1.20) -1.14% (-0.75) -0.22% (-0.18) -1.37% (-1.01) CAAR -1,0-3.09% -2.55% -4.91% 3.74% -0.26% 0.55% -0.56% (-1.80)* (-1.10) (-1.92)* (1.51) (-0.21) (0.54) (-0.51) CAAR 0-1.48% (-1.22) -0.39% (-0.24) -2.13% (-1.18) 4.45% (2.55)** 0.79% (0.90) 0.76% (1.04) -0.55% (-0.70) CAAR 0,+1-1.88% (-1.10) 1.74% (0.75) -0.82% (-0.32) 7.06% (2.86)*** 0.39% (0.32) 1.28% (1.24) 0.34% (0.31) CAAR 0,+2-0.35% (-0.17) -1.90% (-0.67) -4.68% (-1.49) 12.91% (4.26)*** 2.15% (1.41) 4.20% (3.31)*** 1.10% (0.81) CAAR -1,+1-3.49% (-1.66)* -0.42% (-0.15) -3.60% (-1.15) 6.35% (2.10)** -0.66% (-0.43) 1.08% (0.84) 0.33% (0.24) CAAR -2,+2-3.10% (-1.14) -3.26% (-0.89) -6.42% (-1.59) 12.09% (3.10)*** 0.22% (0.11) 3.22% (1.97)** 0.28% (0.16) CAAR -10,+2-8.36% (-1.91)* -11.32% (-1.91)* -15.96% (-2.45)** 16.86% (2.68)*** 1.94% (0.61) 4.74% (1.79)* 0.79% (0.28) Number of ETFs 1 4 3 2 1 7 1
Conclusion Both Paris and even Trump election have small effects. Particularly for coal. Pos Policy spin: Positive for renewables Limited concern about stranded fossil assets Fundamental underlying technology shifts?
MW Accumulated global capacity 300 000 200 000 Wind Solar PV 100 000 0 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 Källor GWEC, BNEF, BP
Finow Tower I&II, Germany
Indias largest solar farm Kamuthi
Solar bids now within range of Coal fired in India.
Is 100 /tco2 enough /Is Sweden fossil free? If all countries and all sectors had 100 different game. Still room for other instruments too: ENERGIEWENDE, CLIMATE CHANGE LAW, Plans, SPECIFIC Industrial policy.
STEEL: THE ICONIC I NDUSTRY
STEEL: THE ICONIC I NDUSTRY
STEEL: THE ICONIC I NDUSTRY
Fossil free steel! 15 TWh!
CaCO3 CaO + CO2
CaCO3 CaO + C + O2
What happens when we made cement and steel fossil free?
What happens when we made cement and steel fossil free? People get inspired and solve climate change once and for all
What happens when we made cement and steel fossil free? People get inspired and solve climate change once and for all The equilibrium price of fossil fuels fall and people find new ways to enjoy and waste
Who doesn t need a heated outdoor pool?
Thomas Sterner Chaire Développement durable - Environnement, énergie et société
2 simultaneous crises: a Coincidence?
Thomas Sterner Chaire Développement durable - Environnement, énergie et société
JONAS KARLÉN
VAD PÅVERKAR KLIMATET MEST?
KORTSPELET KLIMATKOLL Klimatpåverkan mäts i CO2 och siffrorna är framtagna av världsledande klimatforskare från Chalmers. Spelet är tänkt att vara ett redskap för lärande.
VAD PÅVERKAR KLIMATET MEST?
DAGS ATT SPELA!
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Tack Thomas Sterner
Svalna och andra tjänster Lånespel Helags fjällstation
PRICE ON CARBON EMISSIONS ETS or Tax Anyone builds a metro would be rewarded Or a clean factory Solar cells, hydroplants, windpower Or planted a forest REQUIRES Fair allocation of permits
The allocation between US and India GF Per Capita USA INDIA USA INDIA
The right to emit valuable 20 Gtons CO2 à 50 $/t = 1000 B$ Grand father Per capita INDIA 4% 16% USA 16% 4%