VGR är en del ieuropaselsystem hur utnyttjar vi det? Vindkraft resurser ur ett lokalt och internationellt perspektiv May 13th, 215 Mikael Odenberger, Lisa Göransson, Thomas Unger and Karolina Nilsson
VGR part of a large system
Analysis of prospects for renewable electricity in the KASK region Detailed mapping of wind power (conflicts with alternative land use and mapping of wind availability) Detailed survey of CHP and industrial back pressure based on biomass and waste fuels Estimates of new hydro power schemes (based on e.g. Chalmers power plant database ) In combination with electricity system modelling of EU 27+NO+CH divided into 53 regional price areas, we identify possible/realistic development paths for electricity supply in the KASK region
The four main scenarios for European electricity supply of the Pathways research programme 5 Reference 5 Climate Market TWh 4 3 2 1 Existing capacity New renewables CCS New fossil TWh 4 3 2 1 Existing capacity New renewables CCS New fossil New nuclear 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 TWh 5 4 3 2 1 Regional Policy Existing capacity New renewables New fossil New nuclear CCS 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 TWh 5 4 3 2 1 Green Policy Existing capacity New renewables New fossil 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25
Assumptions on CO 2 reduction in European electricity supply Mton CO2 14 12 1 8 6 4 4% GHG until 23, comprd. 199, in the entire energy system > approx. 5% CO2 in electricity supply 8 95% GHG until 25, comprd. 199, in the entire energy system > approx 95 99% CO2 in electricity supply 3%, 22 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES REF Dec 213) 5%, 23 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES Roadmap) 65%, 25 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES Roadmap) (Reference) 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 95 99%, 25 (jmfrt 199) (EC PRIMES Roadmap)
Electricity supply in EU 27, NO+CH Green Policy Regional Policy TWh 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Other Other renew Wind Biomass and waste Natural gas CCS Natural gas Oil Coal/Biomass cofire CCS Coal CCS Coal convent Nuclear Hydro TWh 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Other Other renew Wind Biomass and waste Natural gas CCS Natural gas Oil Coal/Biomass cofire CCS Coal CCS Coal convent Nuclear Hydro Year Year
Electricity supply in Sweden Green Policy Regional Policy 2 2 15 15 TWh 1 TWh 1 5 5 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Nuclear Hydro Wind Coal Fossil Biomass, waste, peat Other renewables Gross demand Common EU cert. scheme Nuc.: 45 yrs lifetime +13 TWh RES E 22 212 (common Swe Nor cert. scheme) Nuc.: 6 yrs lifetime (new optional)
Electricity supply in KASK SWE Green Policy Regional Policy 5 5 4 4 TWh 3 2 TWh 3 2 1 1 212 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 212 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Hydro Convent fossil Hydro Convent fossil Nuclear Biomass and waste Nuclear Biomass and waste Wind PV Wind PV Gross demand Gross demand > Will require sufficient back up either internally or through imports. During other time periods, large volumes of wind power will have to be exported Rough estimate: approx 18 TWh wind in 25 > 8 GW compared to approx 5 GW max load and approx 2 GW secure supply (hydro, thermalexclback up and share of wind power)
Future KASK rich in wind power Wind power resource base Electricity prices Electricity market (availability and price structure) Harmonizing measures (toolbox) DSM Linkages to the transport sector Linkages to the heating sector Trade
Available land surface for wind power installations Återstående ytor efter avdrag för vattendrag, infrastruktur, miljöoch naturskyddsområden, tättbebyggda områden (> 3 pp/km2) samt annat Available surface of total
Otillåten yta om >1 pp/km2 eller infrastruktur eller naturskydd Otillåten yta om >5 pp/km2 eller infrastruktur eller naturskydd Some 3 different areas (per region) have been defined as possible conflic areas, e.g. Natura 2 areas, densely populated areas, recreational areas, waterways, etc
Our best estimate (available surface for wind power installations relative total surface) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% KASK Nor: ca 4 inv/km2 landmassa VG: ca 55 inv/km2 landmassa Halland: ca 5 inv/km2 landmassa > filtret >3 inv/km2 får därmed större betydelse i KASK Sve än i KASK Nor % KASK NOR Halland KASK TOT VGR KASK Swe, approx. 45%
Wind availability measurements Stora ytor med 7m/s (orange färg) vilket anses vara goda vindlägen Source: Windmap (mätningar på 12 meters höjd)
Wind availability in the KASK region adapted to the level of detail in the model package Produktionsdata, det vill säga anpassat till en tänkt vindkraftpark (ca 1 meters rotorhöjd) (Chalmers vinddata baserat på ECMWF, (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) 9 13 timmar 13 18 timmar 18 22 timmar
What share of the estimated available land surface may be profitable for wind power exploitation? 35 3 Full load hours 25 2 15 1 ~55 EUR/MWh ~75 EUR/MWh ~1 EUR/MWh KASK Norway Inv: 133 EUR/kW D&U: 25 EUR/kW 7%, 21 år 5 KASK Sweden 1 2 3 4 km2 If we assume 6 7 EUR/MWh as total revenue for wind power, apporoximately 1% of available surface is profitable to exploit under our assumptions BUT: If we put a wind farm on that surface > 1 km2*1 kw/km2 + 4 km2*1 kw/km2 = 1 GW + 4 GW = 5 GW!!! (alternatively, if we assume a higher revenue, the profitable surface increases)
Base case 23 (SWE) 9,5 GW Nuclear > 55 6 TWh 6 year lifetime 16,7 GW Hydro power > 65 TWh ca 5 GW CHP > 14 16 TWh incl Backpreassure (ca 15 TWh today) (~4 GW Condens+Gas turb.) > < 1 TWh (for a normal year) 11,5 GW Wind power > 26 TWh (214 ca 5,5 GW > ca 13 TWh) Sensitivity analysis by the dispatch model EPOD: Wind power levels of 15, 26, 5 och 7 TWh in Sweden by 23 Nuclear power levels of GW, 5.6 GW (R3 4, O3 and F3 remains) and 9,5 GW kärnkraft i Sverige år 23 (in combination with 7 TWh wind)
Example: Swedish electricity generation up scaled wind power GWh/3hr 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 26 TWh 5 TWh 1 16 211 316 421 526 631 736 841 946 151 1156 1261 1366 1471 1576 1681 1786 1891 1996 211 226 2311 2416 2521 2626 2731 2836 GWh/3hr 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 16 211 316 421 526 631 736 841 946 151 1156 1261 1366 1471 1576 1681 1786 1891 1996 211 226 2311 2416 2521 2626 2731 2836 Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Increasing wind power from 26 to 5 TWh wind power > Less nuclear and hydro power used more dynamic (more variations close to max/min capacity) CHP marginally lower Increased Net export Source: EPOD_Regional ( Reg P )
El. price distribution all cases for 23 EUR/MWh 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 9 179 268 357 446 535 624 713 82 891 98 169 1158 1247 1336 1425 1514 163 1692 1781 187 1959 248 2137 2226 2315 244 2493 2582 2671 276 2849 15 TWh 23 26 TWh 23 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh 23, 5,6 GW Nuc 7 TWh 23, NoNuc Price area SE3 Less available Nuclear (or other thermal power) > more high price hours Results from sensitivity analysis: differences due to varying wind power and nuclear power levels only > The more wind power the sharper price distribution > Capacity surplus (remaining old power plants) dampen price spikes Increasedwindpowerpenetration > more low price hours
Average annual el. price (SE3) 7 6 5 Effect of increased wind power penetration (everything else constant) Effect of reduced nuclear capacity (everything else constant) SEK/MWh 4 3 2 1
Example: extreme el. prices (percent of year; SE3) 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 212 15 TWh 23 26 TWh 23 Antal timmar<1 EUR/MWh 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh 23, 5,6 GW Nuc 7 TWh 23, NoNuc Antal timmar>1 EUR/MWh Clear threashold, i.e., exrtreme prices more significant above 5TWh Explained by large trading capacity and hydro power
Annual average electrcity price given different load/production situations SEK/MWh 1 8 6 4 2 Årligt medelelpris för olika produktionsprofiler Minskande elpris med stigande årlig vindkraftproduktion Stigande elpris med minskande KK kapacitet (allt annat lika) Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elpris, vindkraft Elpris, kraftvärme The larger wind power penetration the lower the average electrcity price Wind power loose and Bio CHP gain if nuclear is shut down (high prices during winter time)
Green certificates as driver for wind power? SEK/MWh 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 SEK/MWh 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Elpris, vindkraft Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind > Since prices are low when the wind blows the costs for wind power will have to be carried by the certificate scheme (or something else)
Variations in electricity prices 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 169 173 177 181 185 5 1 15 2 25 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 169 173 177 181 185 trade hydro wind gas bio waste gas_chp coal_chp bio_chp waste_chp
Toolbox Internal trade hydropower International trade geographical smoothening Demand Side Management Linkages to the transportation sector Linkages to the heat sector
Demand Side Management Households heating and hot water The building can store heat up to 1 hours Mainly in winter time Industry process dependent 3 25 2 15 1 5 4 3 2 1 without lines DSM wind load GW EUR/MWh 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 11 15 19 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165
High cost intervals duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power
Linkages to the transportation sector EV:s and PHEV:s Charging of vehicles can be distributed over 8 hour periods office hour and night time Mainly workdays Electrofuels Easy storage over seasons All year
Low cost intervals duration 5 TWh wind Nuclear power in place 7 TWh wind No nuclear power
Linkages to the heat sector Flexible CHP production Adjust alpha values depending on electricity price Long and short term variations Mainly in winter Heat pumps and electric boilers Use low cost electricity to produce heat Buildings and grids as heat storages up to 12 hours Mainly in winter
Low cost intervals 7 TWh_no nuc Time of year 6 number of hours with mc <5 EUR/MWh winter spring summer autumn 5 4 3 7 TWh_no nuc 5 TWh 2 1 winter spring summer autumn
Summary: Wind power projections in the KASK region 2 2 15 Regional Policy 15 Regional Policy TWh 1 Regional Policy increased ambition TWh 1 Regional Policy increased ambition Green Policy Green Policy 5 Climate Market 5 Climate Market 21 22 23 24 25 21 22 23 24 25 Long term estimate based on our scenarios: 5 15 TWh Long term estimate based on our scenarios: 3 1 TWh
Medelpris per säsong samtliga beräkningsfall 12 1 SEK/MWh 8 6 4 2 Vinter Vår Sommar Höst 212 (Stat) 212 (modellberäkn) 15 TWh 23 26 TWh 23 5 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 7 TWh, 5,6 GW KK 7 TWh, utan KK
Medelpris per säsong olika vindvolym, allt annat lika SEK/MWh 6 5 4 3 2 1 Vinter Vår Sommar Höst 15 TWh 23 26 TWh 23 7 TWh 23 5 TWh 23
RES E share across the four main scenarios, EU 27+NO+CH (given input in some cases) RES E share (%) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Year Green Policy Reference EC, july 214, scen EE27 Regional Policy Climate Market
Model results: Marginal cost of electricity ( the wholesale price ) 9 8 7 EU weighted average 6 EUR/MWh 5 4 3 2 1 Reference Regional Policy Climate Market Green Policy 21 22 23 24 25
Model results: Marginal cost of electricity ( the wholesale price ) 14 12 1 EUR/MWh 8 6 4 2 Reference Regional Policy Climate Market Green Policy 21 22 23 24 25
Electricity supply in Norway Green Policy Regional Policy 2 2 15 15 TWh 1 TWh 1 5 5 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Fossil Hydro Fossil Hydro Biomass, waste, peat Wind Biomass, waste, peat Wind Other renewables Gross demand Other renewables Gross demand Common EU cert. Scheme (+1 15 TWh hydro until 25) +13 TWh RES E 22 212 (common Swe Nor cert. scheme)
Electricity supply in KASK NOR Green Policy Regional Policy 7 7 6 6 5 5 TWh 4 3 TWh 4 3 2 2 1 1 212 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 212 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Hydro Nuclear Wind Gross demand Convent fossil Biomass and waste PV Hydro Nuclear Wind Gross demand Convent fossil Biomass and waste PV
Ett högt årsmedelelpris innebär inte alltid högt elpris 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 Under ca ¼ av året ligger elpriset i vårt högprisscenario klart under ett normalprisscenario trots att årsmedelpriset är ca dubbelt så högt 3 2 1 1 268 535 82 169 1336 163 187 2137 244 2671 2938 325 3472 3739 46 4273 454 487 574 5341 568 5875 6142 649 6676 6943 721 7477 7744 811 8278 8545 SEK/MWh 15 TWh 23 7 TWh, utan KK
Svensk elproduktion år 23 i basfallet (26 TWh vindkraft) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 16 211 316 421 526 631 736 841 946 151 1156 1261 1366 1471 1576 1681 1786 1891 1996 211 226 2311 2416 2521 2626 2731 2836 GWh/3hr Kärnkraft Kraftvärme Vindkraft Vattenkraft Övrigt Övrig termisk Last Källa: EPOD_Regional ( Reg P )
Beräkning av elcertifikatpris (=marginalkostnad för ny vindkraft årsmedelelpris) SEK/MWh 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Marginalkostnad för ny vindkraft (Energimyndigheten, 214) Elpris, tidsmedel över ett år Elcertpris Marginalkostn för ny vind
Säsongsvis fördelning av lågpristimmar Säsongsvis fördeln av lågpristimmar (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Andel lågpristimmar per år (%) Ökad vindkraftvolym leder till en relativt jämn fördelning av lågpristimmar mellan säsongerna > markant förändring jmfrt med nuläget Andel vinter Andel sommar Andel lågpristimmar per år Andel vår Andel höst Lågpris : < 1 öre/kwh
Säsongsvis fördelning av högpristimmar Säsongsvis fördeln av lågpristimmar (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Andel lågpristimmar per år (%) Ökad vindkraftvolym leder till en ngt jämnare fördelning av högpristimmar mellan säsongerna men vinterdominansen kvarstår Andel vinter Andel sommar Andel högpristimmar per år Andel vår Andel höst Högpris : > 1 öre/kwh
Totalintäkten för olika kraftslag varierar och beror på produktionsprofil och princip för elcertifikatprisberäkning 12 Elcertifikat enligt tidsmedelvärdesprincipen 12 Elcertifikat enligt vindprofilprincipen 1 1 8 8 SEK/MWh 6 4 SEK/MWh 6 4 2 2 SUMMA intäkt för RES baslast SUMMA intäkt för vind SUMMA intäkt för kraftvärme SUMMA intäkt för RES baslast SUMMA intäkt för vind SUMMA intäkt för kraftvärme Vindkraft en intäktsförlorare vid växande vindkraftvolym+kk avveckling, i synnerhet om elcertifikatpriset bestäms av medelelpriset under året Biokraftvärme intäktsvinnare vid växande vindkraftvolym, i synnerhet om vindkraftproduktionsprofilen bestämmer elcertifikatpriset