Transforming a Market in Transition: Improving America s Housing 2009

Transforming a Market in Transition: Improving America s Housing 2009 Kermit Baker Remodeling Futures Program October 21, 2008 www.jchs.harvard.edu

Report Topics Industry size, composition, and trends; Remodeling cycles; Emerging industry structure; Geographical dimensions of remodeling; Outlook for emerging remodeling segments: rental; green remodeling ; remodeling by immigrant households.

Key Report Themes Current remodeling cycle is changing the amount of home improvement activity and types of projects undertaken; Historic changes in housing market have changed consumer s attitudes toward and ability to undertake home improvements; Remodeling contractors scale of operations make them particularly vulnerable to downturn of current magnitude; General industry trends are playing out very differently in different areas of the country, depending on local housing market conditions; Engines of growth for next industry upturn likely to be very different than historical drivers;

The Home Remodeling Market Continued to Expand Rapidly Through 2007 Billions of dollars 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 180 149 161 18 14 26 20 26 21 31 26 23 85 95 105 229 210 25 23 25 33 33 37 129 134 280 18 31 43 188 335 20 33 46 236 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007(p) Owner Improvements Owner Maintenance Rental Improvements Rental Maintenance Sources: JCHS tabulations of 1995-2007 American Housing Survey (AHS) and the US Department of Commerce Survey of Expenditures for Residential Improvement and Repairs (c50 reports).

Percentage of Homeowners Undertaking Home Improvement Projects Has Been Recovering in Recent Years % of homeowners reporting projects over 2-year period 65% 60% 59.5% 57.4% 56.9% 57.7% 55% 57.3% 55.8% 53.7% 50% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: JCHS tabulations of 1995-2007 American Housing Survey (AHS).

After a Decade of Concentration, The Home Improvement Industry May Becoming More Broad-Based Percent of total home improvement spending by top 1% of spenders 50% 40% 33.9% 30% 27.5% 27.7% 29.1% 30.6% 23.4% 20% 18.8% 10% 0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Sources: JCHS tabulations of 1995-2007 American Housing Survey (AHS).

Average Expenditures Have Been Climbing, Driven By Increasing Share of Projects With Professional Installation Average annual spending on home improvements by homeowners reporting expenditures ($) % of projects installed by professionals $6,000 $5,427 90% $5,000 $4,819 85% $4,000 $3,749 $3,896 $3,000 $3,070 76.2% $3,267 75.0% $3,352 76.2% 77.7% 73.2% 76.1% 78.3% 80% 75% $2,000 $1,000 70% $0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 65% Source: JCHS tabulations of 1995-2007 American Housing Survey (AHS).

Report Topics Industry size, composition, and trends; Remodeling cycles; Emerging industry structure; Geographical dimensions of remodeling; Outlook for key remodeling segments: rental; green remodeling ; remodeling by immigrant households.

Recent Remodeling Cycles Have Been Less Volatile Than Homebuilding, Although Apparently More Volatile Overall Percent change in spending, current $ Cycle Time Period (Trough to Trough) New Residential Construction Spending Owner Improvements Trough to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Peak Peak to Trough 80s/Early 90s 200.7-20.2 127.6-17.0 Mid-90s 66.5-5.4 26.2-13.0 Current (thru 2008-Q2 prelim. figures) 193.1-52.7 160.0-16.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, C30 reports.

Upper-End Projects Have Seen More Growth in Recent Years, But Also More Year-to-Year Volatility Average annual growth in remodeling expenditures 30% 1997 1999 2001 25% 24% 2003 2005 2007 20% 19% 16% 15% 12% 14% 13% 12% 10% 5% 0% 5% 7% 3% -1% 2% 6% 2% 2% 0% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 8% -5% -4% -4% -6% -10% Upper-End Discretionary Midrange Discretionary Replacements Maintenance & Repairs Total Notes: Expenditures are inflation-adjusted to 2005 dollars. Upper-end discretionary spending includes major kitchen and bath remodels and room additions and alterations over $25,000, while other discretionary spending includes minor kitchen and bath remodels and room additions of under $25,000. Major kitchen improvements are defined as $10,000+ if done professionally and $4,000+ if DIY. Major bathroom improvements are defined as $5,000+ if done professionally and $2,000+ if DIY. Source: Joint Center tabulations of 1995-2007 American Housing Surveys.

Growing Cyclicality of Remodeling Activity May Be Due to Increased Shares in More Cyclical Project Categories Share of homeowner improvement spending 1995 2007 Deck, porch, prop. 22% Disaster rep. 6% Upper-end disc. 20% Deck, porch, prop. 17% Disaster rep. 5% Upper-end disc. 29% Mid-range disc. 13% Systems 12% Systems 12% Exterior 20% Interior 7% Exterior 16% Interior 15% Mid-range disc. 6% Source: JCHS tabulations of 1995-2007 AHS.

Remodeling Remains More Fragmented Than Other Parts of the Residential Construction Sector Share of Total Revenue (Percent) 60 50 40 42.0 45.3 48.4 51.5 35.4 30 25.1 20 15.4 10 0 1.4 2.1 3.3 5.2 General Remodeling Contractors Building Material Supply Dealers 10.0 Wood Product Manufacturers Top 4 Top 8 Top 20 Top 50 Sources: Unpublished tabulations of the 2002 Economic Census of Construction, and 2002 Censuses of Retailers and Manufacturers.

Recent Slowdown in Remodeling Spending Will Test Contractors; Likely Produce Greater Business Failures Median annual revenue growth 14% 12% 12.5% 10% 8% 7.2% 7.5% 8.1% 7.3% 6% 4.4% 4.6% 4% 2.7% 2% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Note: This analysis includes the top 400 remodelers reporting revenue in any two consecutive years. Source: JCHS tabulations of Qualified Remodeler magazine s Top 500 Remodelers.

Failure Rates Significantly Higher for Start-Up Firms; Those with Declining Payrolls Establishments No Longer Operating in 2004 as Share of All General Remodelers in 2003 (%) 25% 20% 20% 18% 15% 13% 10% 5% 6% 6% 0% All Remodelers Born in 2003 Decreased Payroll, 2002-03 Stable Payroll, 2002-03 Increased Payroll, 2002-03 Note: Stable payroll in 2002-2003 is defined as growth of 0-4.9% and increased payroll is defined as growth of 5.0% or more. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Information Tracking Series.

Locational Implications of Remodeling Activity and: Sales of existing homes; House price appreciation trends; Cost recovery from remodeling projects; Concentration of distressed housing units: delinquencies and foreclosures;

Homeowners With Higher Home Price Appreciation Markets Have Continued to Spend More on Remodeling Average owner spending on home improvements, 2007 $4,000 $3,890 $4,260 $3,170 $3,000 $2,770 $2,180 $2,230 $2,000 $1,000 $0 down flat (0-5%) up 5-10% up 10-25% up >25% all owners 2005-07 House Price Appreciation Source: JCHS tabulations of 2005-2007 American Housing Survey (AHS).

At All Income Levels, Owners That Have Recently Seen House Price Declines or Modest Gains are Spending Less Than Other Owners on Home Improvements Average annual spending on home improvements by homeowners reporting expenditures, 2007 2005-2007 House Price Appreciation 2007 Household Income Decline Flat Up 5-10% Up 10-25% Up 25%+ All Owners < $40K $2,460 $2,390 $2,350 $3,140 $3,490 $2,910 $40-$79K $3,400 $3,510 $3,000 $4,340 $5,150 $4,100 $80-$119K $3,600 $3,900 $5,060 $6,320 $7,930 $5,600 $120K+ $8,360 $6,096 $7,400 $11,390 $16,070 $10,720 Source: JCHS tabulations of 2005 and 2007 AHS.

Percentage of Cost Recouped on Remodeling Projects Has Been Declining in Recent Years % of cost recouped; average across projects included each year (national figures) 100% 90% 89.7% 80% 80.7% 77.9% 70% 73.4% 70.3% 60% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Remodeling Magazine and National Association of Realtors Cost vs. Value studies, 2003-2007.

Cost Recovery Share Has Dropped in All Areas, and Currently is Lowest in Many Weaker Midwest Markets Average percentage of cost recovered on core improvement projects; metro areas with highest; lowest cost recovery shares, 2008 Source: JCHS analysis of 2008 Cost vs. Value Study.

Spending on Owner-Occupied and Rental Units Has Diverged Over the Past Decade Average annual expenditures per unit for improvements and maintenance (2007 dollars) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Owner-Occupied Rental Note: Rental includes renter-occupied and vacant. Sources: US Commerce Department C50 reports and US Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey.

Immigrant Homeowner Spending on Home Improvements Heavily Concentrated in the Sunbelt Percent of immigrant homeowner spending on home improvements, 2007 Northeast 18.1% West 41.4% Midwest 9.3% South 31.1% Total immigrant spending on home improvements = $24.9 B Source: Joint Center estimates from unpublished tabulations of the 2007 AHS.

Immigrant Share of Homeowner Spending on Improvements Much Higher in Key Gateway Cities Immigrant share of improvement spending by homeowners in key gateway metro areas, 2007 Source: JCHS tabulations of 2007 AHS.