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IPCC: Styrmedel för minskad klimatpåverkan Konsekvenser för städer/stockholm Working Group III contribution to the

IPCC Den mest ambitiösa översikten 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments Working Group III contribution to the

IPCC Den mest ambitiösa översikten 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments What is NEW? Recommend? Working Group III contribution to the

GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion. Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the

TOTAL GHG GtCO2eq, Total, High Y, Upper M, Lower M Low Working Group III contribution to the

Per Capita emissions High, Upp M. Low M and Low Working Group III contribution to the

Emissions per $ GDP Low, LowM, UppM, High Income Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the A growing share of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes in low and middle income countries has been released in the production of goods and services exported, notably from upper middle income countries to high income countries.

Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 to 4.8 C over the 21 st century. Vad behöver göras? Working Group III contribution to the

Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 to 4.8 C over the 21 st century. Working Group III contribution to the

Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns. Working Group III contribution to the

Kostnaden för att handla Att nå 450ppm CO 2 eq kostar 1.7% (1%-4%) i förlorade Cons 2030, 4.8% (3%-11%) 2100 Motsvarar sänking i tillväxt med 0.06% (jmft 1.6% - 3%) Med 2% tillväxt blir vi 5,5 ggr rikare 2100. Klimatomställningen sänker detta till 5,2 Vänta till Juli 2102 Working Group III contribution to the

Kostnaden för att handla Att nå 450ppm CO 2 eq kostar 1.7% (1%-4%) i förlorade Cons 2030, 4.8% (3%-11%) 2100 Motsvarar sänking i tillväxt med 0.06% (jmft 1.6% - 3%) Med 2% tillväxt blir vi 5,5 ggr rikare 2100. Klimatomställningen sänker detta till 5,2 Vänta till Juli 2102 Fördelen av minskade klimatskador och förbättrad luft ingår ej i beräkningen. Working Group III contribution to the

VAD BÖR GÖRAS 1. Behövs AVTAL 2. Behövs Pris på C 3. Behövs Bortagna subventioner 4. Behövs Goda Vilkor Förnybart 5. CCS mm Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the Climate treaty needed...

Styrmedel Working Group III contribution to the

Since AR4, there has been an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase cobenefits and reduce adverse side-effects. Sector-specific policies have been more widely used than economy-wide policies. Regulatory approaches and information measures are widely used, and are often environmentally effective. Since AR4, cap and trade systems for GHGs have been established in a number of countries and regions. In some countries, tax-based policies specifically aimed at reducing GHG emissions alongside technology and other policies have helped to weaken the link between GHG emissions and GDP The reduction of subsidies for GHG-related activities in various sectors can achieve emission reductions, depending on the social and economic context. Working Group III contribution to the

TACK Thomas Sterner Coordinating Lead Author, Ch 15 WGIII IPCC AR5 Professor Miljöekomomi Gölteborg Visiting Chief Economist http://www.edf.org/people/thomas-sterner Environmental Defense Fund www.policyinstruments.se Working Group III contribution to the

Konsekvenser för Stockholm Adaptation Mitigation Vad händer och hur kan vi anpassa oss... Working Group III contribution to the

En Maya Ruin i Slottskogen Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the Nej Hopp om mer snö...

Working Group III contribution to the Båtar utan hav

Working Group III contribution to the Bridge over no water

Working Group III contribution to the Ser vi förändringarna?

Skadeinsekter och stormar Working Group III contribution to the

Utan tjäle inget skogsbruk Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the fästingar

TBE, ett exempel på klimateffekter vaccin?= Adaptation? Working Group III contribution to the Department of Economics, Environmental Economics Unit www.handels.gu.se/eeu

Ökande antal TBE fall i 350 Sverige 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Working Group III contribution to the 2014-05-09

TBE fall Sverige 1986-2012 Antal sålda doser TBE vaccin per år 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 Working Group III contribution to the 2014-05-09 0

Uppenbarligen mycket mer... Vatten Oväder Flyktingar Beredskap Jag pratar litet för jag kan litet... Working Group III contribution to the

Mitigation Gå före med lösningar för Tätare mer blandad stad Kollektivtransport/ cyckling Fjärrvärme Bra infrastruktur för vatten, avfall... Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the Utsläppsmål

Working Group III contribution to the CURITIBA

TWh per år 60 Fuel use in Swedish district heating 50 40 OTHERS 30 20 10 OIL COAL BIOMASS 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 Working Group III contribution to the

Hus utan uppvärmning In Sweden!? Working Group III contribution to the

Nu bygger vi nollenergihus! Stadsskogenskolan, Alingsås Working Group III contribution to the

2050: Working Group III contribution to the Now existing buildings = 80 %

Brogården, Alingsåshem after renovation 5 cm isolation on the existing roof 38 cm isolation in the attic U-value ca 0,10 W/m2, K Decentral ventilation with heat exchanger Efficiency > 85 % 45 cm isolation in walls U = 0,09 W/m2, K New exterior balconies without thermal bridges 3-pane windows U= 0,85 Air tightness 0,4ach at 50 Pa Entrance doors (porch) U = 0,8 11 cm isolation, U = 0,14 Energy performance: (kwh/m2, year) Working 22 Group degrees III contribution indoor to temp the After (Before) Space heating: 19 (115) Domestic hot water: 18 (42) Houshold electricity: 28 (39) Common electricity: 21 (20) Summary: 86 (216) Space heating: Before: 115 kwh/sqm After: 19 kwh/sqm

Costs per apartment Total renovation 1 000 000 SEK ~ 100 000 - including extra costs for energysaving ~10 000 Pay back time for energysaving < 10 years (Demolishing and rebuilding > 200 000 ) Working Group III contribution to the

IPCC WGIII Gamla och Nya städer har olika förutsättningar att minska utsläpp Infrastruktur har lång livslängd inlåsningseffekter Fokus på täthet och tillgänglighet Transit Oriented Development (TOD) Fjärrvärme Kombinerade lösningar Working Group III contribution to the

Är Klimatsystemet en Allmänning? Working Group III contribution to the

Global Commons? Working Group III contribution to the

Känsliga ord 1. Farliga ord: Binding 2. Farliga ord: Almänning 3. Farliga ord: Tillväxt 4. Medelinkomstländer 5. Fossil förbränning, 6. Avskaffa Subventioner... Working Group III contribution to the

Comments from the delgates: Take out subsidies? Working Group III contribution to the

Nyttan med att undvika klimatskador ej beräknad Stor osäkerheter om effekter Fördelningseffekter Värdet på mark i Bangladesh vs NY Värdet av liv Värdet av risker Värden långt in i framtiden Working Group III contribution to the

Varför är du inte vaccinerad mot TBE? (Icke-vaccinerade i TBE riskområden) Jag har tänkt vaccinera mig, men det har inte blivit av Har alrig tänkt på det Jag visste inte att det fanns ett vaccin mot TBE Vaccinet kostar för mycket Jag är rädd för att få bieffekter från vaccinet Jag är rädd för sprutor Medicinska grunder Det är krångligt/tar för lång tid att vaccinera sig Jag vistas aldrig/sällan i områden där det finns risk att smittas av TBE Risken att smittas av TBE är så liten att jag inte behöver vaccineras Working Group III contribution to the 2014-05-09 Jag vistas sällan i områden med fästingar Vet ej 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Bör TBE vaccin subventioneras? Svar från respondenter Revidera bild: tre svarsalternativ, bara TBE vaccinfrågor + råddjur Åsikter om offentliga program för att minska risken för fästingburna sjukdomar Mycket bra förslag Ganska bra förslag varken bra eller dåligt förslag Ganska dåligt förslag Mycket dåligt förslag Reducera priset på TBE vaccinationer till alla som vill vaccinera sig i Sverige Reducera priset på TBE vaccinationer till människor bosatta i riskområden Inkludera TBE vaccination i det allmänna vaccinations-programmet för barn 32% 46% 37% 38% 29% 39% 21% 22% 6% 2% 11% 2% 1% 9% 4% Öka resurserna till forskning om fästingburna sjukdomar 43% 42% 14% 1% 0% Öka informationsinsatserna om fästingburna sjukdomar 40% 43% 15% 2% 0% Drastiskt minska antalet rådjur i Sverige genom jakt (rådjur är ett viktigt värddjur för fästingar) 12% 17% 28% 23% 19% Working Group III contribution to the 2014-

Energianvändning värme och kyl Working Group III contribution to the Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) in Ürge-Vorsatz et al.,

ORD, ORD, ORD Cap and trade systems for GHGs are being established in a growing number of countries and regions. Their shortrun environmental effect has been limited as a result of loose caps or caps that have not proved to be binding (limited evidence, medium agreement). This was related to factors such as the financial and economic crisis, changes in fossil fuel markets, interactions with other policies and regulatory uncertainty. In principle A well-designed cap and trade system can be cost-effective. (national circumstances) Though earlier programmes relied almost exclusively on grandfathering (free allocation of permits), auctioning permits is increasingly applied. If allowances are auctioned, revenues can be used to address other investments with a high social return, and/or reduce the tax and debt burden. [14.4.2, 15.5.3] Working Group III contribution to the

(In some countries)tax-based policies, some specifically aimed at reducing energy consumption or emissions alongside technology and other policies have helped to weaken the link between GHG emissions and GDP in some countries (high confidence). In a large group of countries, fuel taxes (although not necessarily designed for the purpose of mitigation) have effects that are akin to sectoral carbon taxestable 15.2. The demand reduction in transport fuel associated with a 1% price increase is 0.6% to 0.8% in the long run, although the short-run response is much smaller [15.5.2]. In some countries revenues are used to reduce other taxes to render policies more politically feasible. This illustrates the general principle that mitigation policies that raise government revenue generally have lower social costs than approaches which do not. While it has previously been assumed that fuel taxes in the transport sector are regressive, there have been a number studies since AR4 that have shown them to be progressive, particularly in Working Group III contribution to the low-income countries (medium evidence, medium agreement).

The reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels (for GHG related activities) can achieve emission reductions at negative social cost depending on the social and economic context (high confidence). Since AR4 a small but growing literature has quantified emission reductions from subsidy reform and suggests that complete removal of subsidies to high emission technologies in all countries could cut global emissions from (depending on circumstnces and definities) a few percent to as much as 18% (low evidence, medium agreement) [14.3.2, 15.5.2]. Although political economy barriers are substantial, some countries have reformed their tax and budget systems to reduce fuel subsidies. To help reduce possible adverse effects on lower income groups who often spend a large fraction of their Working Group III contribution to the income on energy services, many governments have utilized

Bolivia Within an appropriate enabling environment, the private sector can play an important role in mitigation (medium evidence, high agreement). The share of total mitigation finance from the private sector, acknowledging data limitations, is estimated to be on average between two-thirds and three-fourths on the global level (2010-2012) (limited evidence, medium agreement). In many countries, public finance interventions by governments and national and international development banks direct Working Group III contribution to the

Bolivia In many countries the private sector plays central roles in the processes that lead to emissions.within an appropriate enabling environment, the private sector can play an important role in mitigation (medium evidence, high agreement). The share of total mitigation finance from the private sector, acknowledging data limitations, is estimated to be on average between two-thirds and threefourths on the global level (2010-2012) (limited evidence, medium agreement). In many countries, public finance interventions by governments and national and international development banks direct Working Group III contribution to the

SPM.5.2 International cooperation International cooperation on climate change has diversified over the past decade. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) remains a primary THE MAIN international forum for climate negotiations, and is seen by many as the most legitimate international climate policy venue due in part to its virtually universal membership [13.3.1, 13.5]. However, other institutions organized at many different scales have risen in importance due to the inclusion of climate change issues in other policy arenas and growing awareness of the co-benefits that can arise from linking climate mitigation and other issues [13.3, 13.4, 13.5]. Working Group III contribution to the

Getting Late Working Group III contribution to the

The 25 Japanese were always awake Working Group III contribution to the

Is it POSSIBLE? Working Group III contribution to the

Sverige Berätta vad vi gjort Försvara koldioxidsskatten i Sverige Sprida koldioxidsskatt till EU (uppvärmning mm) Försvara och utveckla ETS (Sjunkande Cap,golv, tak, långsiktighet, banking...auktionering Minska avdrags möjligheter Mer åtgärder industri sektorn Viktigast; Försvara gå med i Energiewende Capacity building i fattiga länder Working Group III contribution to the

US$/Mwh FÖRNYBARA ENERGIKÄLLOR 300 BNEF Levelized cost of energy per year - Base Cases by Technology Wind - Onshore 250 Wind - Offshore 200 150 100 Solar PV - Crystalline Silicon Solar PV - Think film Narutal Gas CCGT 50 Coal Fired Plant Working 0 Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment 2009Report 2010 2011 2012 2013

US$/Mwh FÖRNYBARA ENERGIKÄLLOR 300 BNEF Levelized cost of energy per year - Base Cases by Technology 250 200 150 100 50 Working 0 Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment 2009Report 2010 2011 2012 2013

GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed. Working Group III contribution to the

Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2 C. Working Group III contribution to the

Likelihoods of staying under X degrees Celsius Working Group III contribution to the

Mitigation costs and their increase with other restrictions Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.

Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others. Working Group III contribution to the

Spread in emissions/$ GDP within Country groupings Working Group III contribution to the

Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently. Existing and proposed international climate change cooperation arrangements vary in their focus and degree of centralization and coordination. Issues of equity, justice, and fairness arise with respect to mitigation and adaptation. Climate policy may be informed by a consideration of a diverse array of risks and uncertainties, some of which are difficult to measure, notably events that are of low probability but which would have a significant impact if they occur. Working Group III contribution to the

Electricity Dec 28-Jan 26 2014 Working Group III contribution to the

Electricity per month 2010-2013 Working Group III contribution to the

Working Group III contribution to the Forecasts for a week

Nuclear is also intermittent! Working Group III contribution to the

Nuclear intermittency 2011-12 Working Group III contribution to the

Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy. Working Group III contribution to the

Variation within the country groups Working Group III contribution to the

CITIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEW DIRECTIONS FOR TRANSFORMATION Harriet Bulkeley

CITIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1990s Municipal Voluntarism Growth of municipal networks Dominated by a few pioneering cities Others focus on symbolic action Focused on energy and enabling others 2000s Strategic Urbanism Development of specialist networks Large cities; increase in global South Economic growth and security Role of intermediaries and innovation

MAIN IPCC WG III FINDINGS The next two decades are critical for cities response Opportunities highest where lock-in limited, e.g. developing economies Most successful approaches include mutually reinforcing interventions Climate policy can produce important co-benefits

CLIMATE CHANGE: A NEW PROBLEM? No longer a discrete problem of emissions reductions through efficiency measures Rather decarbonisation and resilience require transformation of economy, infrastructure, society New issues, new politics? What can cities do to contribute to these challenges?

FROM ONE SOLUTION TO MANY Resilient City Low Carbon City

FROM ONE SOLUTION TO MANY Smart City Empowered City

DEVELOP NEW POLITICAL CAPACITIES

CREATING A NEW POLITICS Challenges of decarbonisation and resilience do not respect political boundaries and rarely stay still Evidence from cities globally suggests two strategies are central to addressing these challenges: Establishing Intermediaries creating new organisations, partnerships, spaces for dialogue and conflict Innovation and experimentation bring together diverse interests; outside normal risk calculation; ability to fail and to learn; social as well as technical innovation

WHAT WORKS: EXPERIMENTATION Making: bringing together new alignments of social interests, urban infrastructures, technologies Maintaining: sustaining innovation over time and ensuring that it is able to reconfigure the networks of which it is a part Living: through everyday norms and practices of professional organisations and public Proyecto ViDA, Monterrey

EXPERIMENTS FOR TRANSFORMATION? Curiosities to be admired, extracted, replicated Disturbance that reorders socio-technical configurations

FOSTER TRANSNATIONAL ACTION

CLIMATE COMPLEX?

WHAT WORKS: TRANSNATIONAL LEARNING Transnational learning critical to urban responses Focused on best practice; often on the transfer of models, technologies and instruments But is this the best form of learning? Sharing political and social learning Can mutually reinforcing bundle be transferred? Building capacity to learn transnationally How do we share mistakes?

BRAVE THE CHALLENGES

FIND YOUR ELEPHANTS

PRIVATE LIFE? In climate changed cities, which decisions remain in the private sphere and which are part of public domain?

RETHINKING THE JUST CITY What is justice in climate changed cities? Who should act? Who should gain, and who should loose? How can we recognise inequality while responding to future risks?

WHO KNOWS WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF THEY TAKE OVER?

Professor Harriet Bulkeley Department of Geography, Durham University Visiting Professor and King Carl XVI Gustafs 17th Professor of Environmental Science Department of Political Science, Lund University Thank You h.a.bulkeley@durham.ac.uk

Klimateffekter i omvärlden: Hur påverkas Sverige? Stockholms stads Stadsmiljöråd 2014-05-08 Henrik Carlsen, SEI

Effekterna beror av klimatet och samhället Samhälle A Samhälle B Sam

Den här världen drabbas på ett annat sätt Den här världen drabbas på ett sätt

Effekter och möjligheter till anpassning IPCC bedömer möjligheterna till anpassning som avsevärda, men de geografiska skillnaderna är stora

Risker och anpassningsförmåga Europa Afrika Asien Nordamerika Väldigt hög Medel Väldigt låg +2 C +4 C

... Och allt detta har betydelse för Sverige; Klimatet förändras och då ser vi: Effekter i Sverige och Effekter i andra länder som indirekt drabbar Sverige Climate change impacts can have consequences beyond the regions in which they occur (AR5 WGII, ch. 19.4)

Climate change will lead to new challenges to states and will increasingly shape both conditions of security and national security policies (AR5 WGII, ch. 12) Första gången ett kapitel om Human Security inkluderas. Ett område omgärdat av stora osäkerheter. Klimatförändringar Klimatdiskussionen Naturresurser Konsekvenser för säkerhet Extremväder

Global trade systems transmit and mediate a variety of impacts the most prominent example of this is the global food trade system (AR5 WGII, ch. 19.4) På tio år har mängden importerat livsmedel fördubblats. Svensk export är helt beroende av svenska import. Exportandelar Export som andel av BNP, procent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 År Källa: Världsbanken (WDI) Hämtat: 2014-03-30 Sverige EU USA

One of the primary ways species adapt to climate change is by moving to more climatically suitable areas (AR5 WGII, ch. 19.4.2.3) Så kallade invasiva arter, djur eller växter som kommer utifrån kan rubba ekosystemen.

Finansiella flöden Sägs mycket lite om detta i rapporten. Värdet av flödet av finansiella tillgångar är idag mångfalt större än värdet av flödet av materiella tillgångar. Svenska företags utlandsinvesteringar Bl.a. svenska pensionsfonder investerar stora belopp utomlands.

these studies indicate that climate change will bear significant consequences for migration flows at particular times and places.. (AR5 WGII, ch. 19.4.2) Omdebatterad område med stora osäkerheter. Rapporten betonar positiva och negativa konsekvener. Here, we are talking about cultural extinction!

Väldigt få av de anpassningsstrategier som idag tas fram tar hänsyn till indirekta effekter. Det finns här anledning till att tänka nytt inte minst i ett litet, exportberoende och öppet land som Sverige.

Orsakerna till klimatförändringarna har länge setts som ett globalt problem, medan effekterna har ansetts vara ett lokalt problem. Det finns all anledning att anlägga mer av ett globalt perspektiv även på klimatförändringarnas effekter. Och kanske kan ett globalt perspektiv på effekter få oss att ansträngas oss mer för att begränsa klimatförändringarans orsaker. Tack!

Malin Parmander, Internationella enheten, SLK Stockholm och internationellt klimatarbete The Capital of Scandinavia

Styrdokument för internationellt klimatarbete Vision 2030 en stad i världsklass Stockholms internationella strategi - Positionering, verksamhetsutveckling, bevakning och påverkan Stadens policy om EU-politik med påverkan på Stockholm och stockholmarna miljöfrågor prioriterat The Capital of Scandinavia 2014-05-09 Sid 2

Städer och klimatförhandlingar Klimatförhandlingarna i FN Klimatmötet i Paris 2015 Michael Bloomberg Ban Ki Moons särskilde sändebud för städers klimatarbete Klimatmöte i NY i september 2014 Klimatförhandlingarna inom EU Klimatmålen 20-20-20 Klimatpolitiken för 2020-2030 lagd av kommissionen Stadens yttrande om grönboken 2013 The Capital of Scandinavia 2014-05-09 Sid 3

Stadens prioriterade organisationer för klimatfrågor C40 CDP Cities Covenant of Mayors Mayors Adapt Eurocities ICLEI The Capital of Scandinavia 2014-05-09 Sid 4

Stockholms internationella status och trender inom klimatfrågorna Tävlingar och konferenser för att bygga stadens varumärke som klimatsmart huvudstad Trender och modeord i klimatbranschen The Capital of Scandinavia 2014-05-09 Sid 5