Energisystemet en framtidsutblick Mikael Odenberger Dept. Space, Earth and Environment Div. Energy technology 2018-08-30
The future power system? Transport Wave power Hydropower Transmission capacity Wind power Biomass Heat Industry Tidal power DSM Wave power Nuclear power Distribution capacity Solar power Storage Coal power with CCS Scenario
Samtidstrender inom energi Nollutsläpp av växthusgaser (CO2) Elektrifiering (Transporter, Industri etc) Sektoröverskridande kopplingar Samordning/samarbete Vad använder vi begränsade resurser till?
Hur varierar vind och sol? 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 1 192 383 574 765 956 1147 1338 1529 1720 1911 2102 2293 2484 2675 2866 3057 3248 3439 3630 3821 4012 4203 4394 4585 4776 4967 5158 5349 5540 5731 5922 6113 6304 6495 6686 6877 7068 7259 7450 7641 7832 8023 8214 8405 8596 Solkraftproduktion (gult), västra Danmark, 2014, helår och sommarvecka Källa: Energinet.dk, http://energinet.dk/en/el/engrosmarked/udtraek-afmarkedsdata/sider/default.aspx
Hur varierar vind och sol? 1 150 299 448 597 746 895 1044 1193 1342 1491 1640 1789 1938 2087 2236 2385 2534 2683 2832 2981 3130 3279 3428 3577 3726 3875 4024 4173 4322 4471 4620 4769 4918 5067 5216 5365 5514 5663 5812 5961 6110 6259 6408 6557 6706 6855 7004 7153 7302 7451 7600 7749 7898 8047 8196 8345 8494 8643 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Vindkraftproduktion (grönt), västra Danmark, 2014, helår timvis (övre grafen) och månadsvis (nedre grafen) Källa: Energinet.dk, http://energinet.dk/en/el/engrosmarked/udtraek-af-markedsdata/sider/default.aspx
Vad händer med mycket vindkraft? [MW] 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0-500 -1000-1500 Västra Danmark, Vintervecka, 2014 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 Elanvändning Måste tillgodoses av annat än vindkraft
Traditionell syn Baslast/topplast 30000 Sveriges elanvändning över ett år 25000 20000 [MW] 15000 10000 5000 0 Baslast Tid Elanvändning i Sverige, helår, 2012 Källa: Nord Pool Spot, http://www.nordpoolspot.com/historical-market-data/
Current challenges The 100% renewable energy/power system Requires a paradigm (supply on demand=>demand to match supply) Implies replacement of the majority of present power plants (Renewables are the least cost alternative!) We need better understanding of our demands New demands come into play (e.g. EVs)
Solar PV employment level Conceptual map of measures to facilitate large amounts of VRES Reinforced local grids Batteries TRADE Power to heat Increased interconnector capacity Wind employment level
Slutsatser Ökad användning av vind- och solelsproduktion ger ökat behov av flexibilitet Mycket mer än batterier! Ett flertal verktyg finns att tillgå Låt oss inte fastna i nuvarande paradigm Vi måste lösa en rad närstående bekymmer MEN! (Svängmassa etc) Systemet är dynamiskt! Det såg mycket annorlunda ut för ~20 år sedan och kan ändras mycket de kommande 20 åren (ex. marknadsregler före 1996?) Det finns stora möjligheter i elektrifiering av sektorer som traditionellt sett är tunga på fossil energi
Möjligheter på kommunal/regional nivå Kommunala energibolag Energirådgivare/dialog med industri Kollektivtrafik Stadsplanering Byggnader (Nybyggnad OCH Användarfasen)
extra
MtCO 2 /year Where are we heading? 2010 5000 4000 EU CO 2 - emissions Statistics & targets 3000 Other (transport) 2000 1000 Industry Power & heat 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 sources: [Boden et al., 2010; EC-JRC/PBL, 2009; European Commission 2011; EEA, 2015]
European electricity production (GWh) 5000000 4500000 A sustainable power system imply large scale employment of variable 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 biogas peak peak biogas PV wind gas biomass re_chp coal fossil_chp lignite CCS nuclear hydro renewables 0 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wind and solar energy Variable availability Increased flexibility => higher employment Cost efficient CO 2 free energy Electrification of new demands Modular Small units Prosumers
Large scale introduction of variable renewable power Variation management strategies required for maximizing the value of wind and solar PV Shaping Absorbing Complementing Electricity Electricity Reduce curtailment and peak power More even costs on diurnal basis Electricity Fuel and heat Reduce curtailment Fewer low cost events Fuel Electricity Reduce peak power More even costs on yearly basis Batteries Power-to-heat Flexible thermal generation Load shifting Electrofuels Reservoir hydropower Pumped hydro Power to gas (hydrogen)
Diverse demands
E.g. Using flexibility in El. For heat
New demands require new methods (e.g. profiles)
Electrifying transportation Stavanger Bergen Large possibilities to influence interaction with the electricity system by strategy Charging home/work? Fast charging Electric road systems Electrofuels?
Different ways of using electricity for transport Electric vehicles (EV) n =73% Electric road systems (ERS) n=77% Hydrogen n=24% Electrofuels n=17% Static charging Home Work/public places Fast charging stations Dynamic charging Conductive Inductive (wireless) Water (H2O) + electricity H2 H2 + CO 2 e.g. methanol Directly/Optimised/ vehicle-to-grid (V2G) Lower fossil fuel demand biofuels) Increased electricity demand (and
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Inkopplad batterieffekt 60% elbilar (motsv 2 miljoner bilar)
Germany and Scandinavia with and without EVs in 2030 Source: Taljegard et al. 2018
Electrification of industry
Adding non-syncronous generation Source: Mark O Malley UCD
Marginal cost and price Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh] 100 80 60 40 20 0 Supply Demand 1 Demand 2 Demand 3 MC3 =? MC1 =? MC2 =? 0 5 10 15 Supply [GW]
Revenue Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh] 100 80 60 40 20 0 Supply Demand 1 Demand 3 If Demand 1 OPEX = revenue If Demand 3 OPEX < revenue, providing cost coverage of CAPEX and/or short term profit 0 5 10 15 Supply [GW]
How to finance peak units Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh] 100 80 60 40 20 0 Supply Demand 1 Demand 2 Demand 3 MC3 =? MC1 =? MC2 =? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Supply [GW]
Correct amount of peaker Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh ] 80 70 60 50 Price >> MC peaker owner earns money Someone will invest Price > MC peaker Short term profit cover CAPEX 10 11 12 13 14 15 Capacity deficit GW Marginal cost & Price [ /MWh ] 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 GW Capacity deficit Capacity surplus Capacity in balance Demand Capacity in balance Capacity surplus Demand
Wind System min load System max load Nordic average available capacity supply curve (simplified to technology classes) Intermittent availability reduces RES capacity Gas turbines Gas turbines Weighted average by availability (annual capacity factor) Average load CHP Coal Oil cond. CHP Coal Oil cond. Nuclear Nuclear Hydro
Our methodological framework Objectives (e.g. Cost minimization) Political Environment E.g. Policy/targets Technology Development Energy Sources Prices Availability Technical Energy System (TES) El. sector Energy tech. Energy flows Tran. Sector Energy Demand Sectors Regional Quality Duration/load Demands for: Housing Service Industrial goods Transportation Etc. TES-boundary
ELIN and EPOD -modellpaket
What is the impact of an electrified road sector on the power demand from the grid?
MtCO 2 /year 30 Carbon-intensive industry in the Nordic countries (without CCS) Reduced activity level refineries 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Biomass in iron and steel and cement industries Reduced fraction of clinker in cement BAT replacing existing process technology Existing measures NOT sufficient if to meet 2050 GHG emission targets 36 (14)
MtCO 2 /year 30 Carbon-intensive industry in the Nordic countries (with CCS) 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Large-scale introduction could come at a high price in terms of energy use Large volumes of CO 2 to handle With CCS total potential: 85% reduction in Year 2050 relative to 2010 37 (14)
All sectors matter supply chain cooperation necessary - Example cement to end products CLINKER PRODUCTION CONCRETE MANUFACTURING Civil engineering Transport infrastructure CEM I Hydraulic works Other RMC Non-residential buildings Public Grey clinker CEM II Commercial PCE Other White clinker Residential buildings CEMENT PRODUCTION Blended cements White cements PCP Multi-dwelling houses Single detached houses Other Rootzén and Johnsson (2017)
Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 Handel med utsläppsrätter EU-ETS < 10 /ton CO 2
Nya sätt att prissätta koldioxid behövs Nordisk basindustri Åtgärder för att uppfylla långsiktiga utsläppsmål kostar 100 /ton CO 2 EU-ETS < 10 /ton CO 2 Rootzén and Johnsson, (2015) Se http://www.dn.se/debatt/plan-saknas-for-attminska-basindustrins-klimatpaverkan/
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