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8 IPCC: Styrmedel för minskad klimatpåverkan Konsekvenser för städer/stockholm Working Group III contribution to the

9 IPCC Den mest ambitiösa översikten 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments Working Group III contribution to the

10 IPCC Den mest ambitiösa översikten 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments What is NEW? Recommend? Working Group III contribution to the

11 GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion. Working Group III contribution to the

12 Working Group III contribution to the

13 TOTAL GHG GtCO2eq, Total, High Y, Upper M, Lower M Low Working Group III contribution to the

14 Per Capita emissions High, Upp M. Low M and Low Working Group III contribution to the

15 Emissions per $ GDP Low, LowM, UppM, High Income Working Group III contribution to the

16 Working Group III contribution to the A growing share of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes in low and middle income countries has been released in the production of goods and services exported, notably from upper middle income countries to high income countries.

17 Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 to 4.8 C over the 21 st century. Vad behöver göras? Working Group III contribution to the

18 Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 to 4.8 C over the 21 st century. Working Group III contribution to the

19 Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns. Working Group III contribution to the

20 Kostnaden för att handla Att nå 450ppm CO 2 eq kostar 1.7% (1%-4%) i förlorade Cons 2030, 4.8% (3%-11%) 2100 Motsvarar sänking i tillväxt med 0.06% (jmft 1.6% - 3%) Med 2% tillväxt blir vi 5,5 ggr rikare Klimatomställningen sänker detta till 5,2 Vänta till Juli 2102 Working Group III contribution to the

21 Kostnaden för att handla Att nå 450ppm CO 2 eq kostar 1.7% (1%-4%) i förlorade Cons 2030, 4.8% (3%-11%) 2100 Motsvarar sänking i tillväxt med 0.06% (jmft 1.6% - 3%) Med 2% tillväxt blir vi 5,5 ggr rikare Klimatomställningen sänker detta till 5,2 Vänta till Juli 2102 Fördelen av minskade klimatskador och förbättrad luft ingår ej i beräkningen. Working Group III contribution to the

22 VAD BÖR GÖRAS 1. Behövs AVTAL 2. Behövs Pris på C 3. Behövs Bortagna subventioner 4. Behövs Goda Vilkor Förnybart 5. CCS mm Working Group III contribution to the

23 Working Group III contribution to the Climate treaty needed...

24 Styrmedel Working Group III contribution to the

25 Since AR4, there has been an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase cobenefits and reduce adverse side-effects. Sector-specific policies have been more widely used than economy-wide policies. Regulatory approaches and information measures are widely used, and are often environmentally effective. Since AR4, cap and trade systems for GHGs have been established in a number of countries and regions. In some countries, tax-based policies specifically aimed at reducing GHG emissions alongside technology and other policies have helped to weaken the link between GHG emissions and GDP The reduction of subsidies for GHG-related activities in various sectors can achieve emission reductions, depending on the social and economic context. Working Group III contribution to the

26 TACK Thomas Sterner Coordinating Lead Author, Ch 15 WGIII IPCC AR5 Professor Miljöekomomi Gölteborg Visiting Chief Economist Environmental Defense Fund Working Group III contribution to the

27 Konsekvenser för Stockholm Adaptation Mitigation Vad händer och hur kan vi anpassa oss... Working Group III contribution to the

28 En Maya Ruin i Slottskogen Working Group III contribution to the

29 Working Group III contribution to the Nej Hopp om mer snö...

30 Working Group III contribution to the Båtar utan hav

31 Working Group III contribution to the Bridge over no water

32 Working Group III contribution to the Ser vi förändringarna?

33 Skadeinsekter och stormar Working Group III contribution to the

34 Utan tjäle inget skogsbruk Working Group III contribution to the

35 Working Group III contribution to the fästingar

36 TBE, ett exempel på klimateffekter vaccin?= Adaptation? Working Group III contribution to the Department of Economics, Environmental Economics Unit

37 Ökande antal TBE fall i 350 Sverige Working Group III contribution to the

38 TBE fall Sverige Antal sålda doser TBE vaccin per år Working Group III contribution to the

39 Uppenbarligen mycket mer... Vatten Oväder Flyktingar Beredskap Jag pratar litet för jag kan litet... Working Group III contribution to the

40 Mitigation Gå före med lösningar för Tätare mer blandad stad Kollektivtransport/ cyckling Fjärrvärme Bra infrastruktur för vatten, avfall... Working Group III contribution to the

41 Working Group III contribution to the Utsläppsmål

42 Working Group III contribution to the CURITIBA

43 TWh per år 60 Fuel use in Swedish district heating OTHERS OIL COAL BIOMASS Working Group III contribution to the

44 Hus utan uppvärmning In Sweden!? Working Group III contribution to the

45 Nu bygger vi nollenergihus! Stadsskogenskolan, Alingsås Working Group III contribution to the

46 2050: Working Group III contribution to the Now existing buildings = 80 %

47 Brogården, Alingsåshem after renovation 5 cm isolation on the existing roof 38 cm isolation in the attic U-value ca 0,10 W/m2, K Decentral ventilation with heat exchanger Efficiency > 85 % 45 cm isolation in walls U = 0,09 W/m2, K New exterior balconies without thermal bridges 3-pane windows U= 0,85 Air tightness 0,4ach at 50 Pa Entrance doors (porch) U = 0,8 11 cm isolation, U = 0,14 Energy performance: (kwh/m2, year) Working 22 Group degrees III contribution indoor to temp the After (Before) Space heating: 19 (115) Domestic hot water: 18 (42) Houshold electricity: 28 (39) Common electricity: 21 (20) Summary: 86 (216) Space heating: Before: 115 kwh/sqm After: 19 kwh/sqm

48 Costs per apartment Total renovation SEK ~ including extra costs for energysaving ~ Pay back time for energysaving < 10 years (Demolishing and rebuilding > ) Working Group III contribution to the

49 IPCC WGIII Gamla och Nya städer har olika förutsättningar att minska utsläpp Infrastruktur har lång livslängd inlåsningseffekter Fokus på täthet och tillgänglighet Transit Oriented Development (TOD) Fjärrvärme Kombinerade lösningar Working Group III contribution to the

50 Working Group III contribution to the

51 Är Klimatsystemet en Allmänning? Working Group III contribution to the

52 Global Commons? Working Group III contribution to the

53 Känsliga ord 1. Farliga ord: Binding 2. Farliga ord: Almänning 3. Farliga ord: Tillväxt 4. Medelinkomstländer 5. Fossil förbränning, 6. Avskaffa Subventioner... Working Group III contribution to the

54 Comments from the delgates: Take out subsidies? Working Group III contribution to the

55 Nyttan med att undvika klimatskador ej beräknad Stor osäkerheter om effekter Fördelningseffekter Värdet på mark i Bangladesh vs NY Värdet av liv Värdet av risker Värden långt in i framtiden Working Group III contribution to the

56 Varför är du inte vaccinerad mot TBE? (Icke-vaccinerade i TBE riskområden) Jag har tänkt vaccinera mig, men det har inte blivit av Har alrig tänkt på det Jag visste inte att det fanns ett vaccin mot TBE Vaccinet kostar för mycket Jag är rädd för att få bieffekter från vaccinet Jag är rädd för sprutor Medicinska grunder Det är krångligt/tar för lång tid att vaccinera sig Jag vistas aldrig/sällan i områden där det finns risk att smittas av TBE Risken att smittas av TBE är så liten att jag inte behöver vaccineras Working Group III contribution to the Jag vistas sällan i områden med fästingar Vet ej 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

57 Bör TBE vaccin subventioneras? Svar från respondenter Revidera bild: tre svarsalternativ, bara TBE vaccinfrågor + råddjur Åsikter om offentliga program för att minska risken för fästingburna sjukdomar Mycket bra förslag Ganska bra förslag varken bra eller dåligt förslag Ganska dåligt förslag Mycket dåligt förslag Reducera priset på TBE vaccinationer till alla som vill vaccinera sig i Sverige Reducera priset på TBE vaccinationer till människor bosatta i riskområden Inkludera TBE vaccination i det allmänna vaccinations-programmet för barn 32% 46% 37% 38% 29% 39% 21% 22% 6% 2% 11% 2% 1% 9% 4% Öka resurserna till forskning om fästingburna sjukdomar 43% 42% 14% 1% 0% Öka informationsinsatserna om fästingburna sjukdomar 40% 43% 15% 2% 0% Drastiskt minska antalet rådjur i Sverige genom jakt (rådjur är ett viktigt värddjur för fästingar) 12% 17% 28% 23% 19% Working Group III contribution to the 2014-

58 Working Group III contribution to the

59 Energianvändning värme och kyl Working Group III contribution to the Source: Global Energy Assessment (GEA) in Ürge-Vorsatz et al.,

60 Working Group III contribution to the

61 Working Group III contribution to the

62 Working Group III contribution to the

63 ORD, ORD, ORD Cap and trade systems for GHGs are being established in a growing number of countries and regions. Their shortrun environmental effect has been limited as a result of loose caps or caps that have not proved to be binding (limited evidence, medium agreement). This was related to factors such as the financial and economic crisis, changes in fossil fuel markets, interactions with other policies and regulatory uncertainty. In principle A well-designed cap and trade system can be cost-effective. (national circumstances) Though earlier programmes relied almost exclusively on grandfathering (free allocation of permits), auctioning permits is increasingly applied. If allowances are auctioned, revenues can be used to address other investments with a high social return, and/or reduce the tax and debt burden. [14.4.2, ] Working Group III contribution to the

64 (In some countries)tax-based policies, some specifically aimed at reducing energy consumption or emissions alongside technology and other policies have helped to weaken the link between GHG emissions and GDP in some countries (high confidence). In a large group of countries, fuel taxes (although not necessarily designed for the purpose of mitigation) have effects that are akin to sectoral carbon taxestable The demand reduction in transport fuel associated with a 1% price increase is 0.6% to 0.8% in the long run, although the short-run response is much smaller [15.5.2]. In some countries revenues are used to reduce other taxes to render policies more politically feasible. This illustrates the general principle that mitigation policies that raise government revenue generally have lower social costs than approaches which do not. While it has previously been assumed that fuel taxes in the transport sector are regressive, there have been a number studies since AR4 that have shown them to be progressive, particularly in Working Group III contribution to the low-income countries (medium evidence, medium agreement).

65 The reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels (for GHG related activities) can achieve emission reductions at negative social cost depending on the social and economic context (high confidence). Since AR4 a small but growing literature has quantified emission reductions from subsidy reform and suggests that complete removal of subsidies to high emission technologies in all countries could cut global emissions from (depending on circumstnces and definities) a few percent to as much as 18% (low evidence, medium agreement) [14.3.2, ]. Although political economy barriers are substantial, some countries have reformed their tax and budget systems to reduce fuel subsidies. To help reduce possible adverse effects on lower income groups who often spend a large fraction of their Working Group III contribution to the income on energy services, many governments have utilized

66 Bolivia Within an appropriate enabling environment, the private sector can play an important role in mitigation (medium evidence, high agreement). The share of total mitigation finance from the private sector, acknowledging data limitations, is estimated to be on average between two-thirds and three-fourths on the global level ( ) (limited evidence, medium agreement). In many countries, public finance interventions by governments and national and international development banks direct Working Group III contribution to the

67 Bolivia In many countries the private sector plays central roles in the processes that lead to emissions.within an appropriate enabling environment, the private sector can play an important role in mitigation (medium evidence, high agreement). The share of total mitigation finance from the private sector, acknowledging data limitations, is estimated to be on average between two-thirds and threefourths on the global level ( ) (limited evidence, medium agreement). In many countries, public finance interventions by governments and national and international development banks direct Working Group III contribution to the

68 SPM.5.2 International cooperation International cooperation on climate change has diversified over the past decade. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) remains a primary THE MAIN international forum for climate negotiations, and is seen by many as the most legitimate international climate policy venue due in part to its virtually universal membership [13.3.1, 13.5]. However, other institutions organized at many different scales have risen in importance due to the inclusion of climate change issues in other policy arenas and growing awareness of the co-benefits that can arise from linking climate mitigation and other issues [13.3, 13.4, 13.5]. Working Group III contribution to the

69 Getting Late Working Group III contribution to the

70 The 25 Japanese were always awake Working Group III contribution to the

71 Working Group III contribution to the

72 Is it POSSIBLE? Working Group III contribution to the

73 Sverige Berätta vad vi gjort Försvara koldioxidsskatten i Sverige Sprida koldioxidsskatt till EU (uppvärmning mm) Försvara och utveckla ETS (Sjunkande Cap,golv, tak, långsiktighet, banking...auktionering Minska avdrags möjligheter Mer åtgärder industri sektorn Viktigast; Försvara gå med i Energiewende Capacity building i fattiga länder Working Group III contribution to the

74 US$/Mwh FÖRNYBARA ENERGIKÄLLOR 300 BNEF Levelized cost of energy per year - Base Cases by Technology Wind - Onshore 250 Wind - Offshore Solar PV - Crystalline Silicon Solar PV - Think film Narutal Gas CCGT 50 Coal Fired Plant Working 0 Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment 2009Report

75 US$/Mwh FÖRNYBARA ENERGIKÄLLOR 300 BNEF Levelized cost of energy per year - Base Cases by Technology Working 0 Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment 2009Report

76 Working Group III contribution to the

77 GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed. Working Group III contribution to the

78 Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2 C. Working Group III contribution to the

79 Likelihoods of staying under X degrees Celsius Working Group III contribution to the

80 Mitigation costs and their increase with other restrictions Working Group III contribution to the

81 Working Group III contribution to the Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.

82 Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others. Working Group III contribution to the

83 Spread in emissions/$ GDP within Country groupings Working Group III contribution to the

84 Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently. Existing and proposed international climate change cooperation arrangements vary in their focus and degree of centralization and coordination. Issues of equity, justice, and fairness arise with respect to mitigation and adaptation. Climate policy may be informed by a consideration of a diverse array of risks and uncertainties, some of which are difficult to measure, notably events that are of low probability but which would have a significant impact if they occur. Working Group III contribution to the

85 Electricity Dec 28-Jan Working Group III contribution to the

86 Electricity per month Working Group III contribution to the

87 Working Group III contribution to the Forecasts for a week

88 Nuclear is also intermittent! Working Group III contribution to the

89 Nuclear intermittency Working Group III contribution to the

90 Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy. Working Group III contribution to the

91 Variation within the country groups Working Group III contribution to the

92 CITIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEW DIRECTIONS FOR TRANSFORMATION Harriet Bulkeley

93 CITIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1990s Municipal Voluntarism Growth of municipal networks Dominated by a few pioneering cities Others focus on symbolic action Focused on energy and enabling others 2000s Strategic Urbanism Development of specialist networks Large cities; increase in global South Economic growth and security Role of intermediaries and innovation

94 MAIN IPCC WG III FINDINGS The next two decades are critical for cities response Opportunities highest where lock-in limited, e.g. developing economies Most successful approaches include mutually reinforcing interventions Climate policy can produce important co-benefits

95 CLIMATE CHANGE: A NEW PROBLEM? No longer a discrete problem of emissions reductions through efficiency measures Rather decarbonisation and resilience require transformation of economy, infrastructure, society New issues, new politics? What can cities do to contribute to these challenges?

96 FROM ONE SOLUTION TO MANY Resilient City Low Carbon City

97 FROM ONE SOLUTION TO MANY Smart City Empowered City

98 DEVELOP NEW POLITICAL CAPACITIES

99 CREATING A NEW POLITICS Challenges of decarbonisation and resilience do not respect political boundaries and rarely stay still Evidence from cities globally suggests two strategies are central to addressing these challenges: Establishing Intermediaries creating new organisations, partnerships, spaces for dialogue and conflict Innovation and experimentation bring together diverse interests; outside normal risk calculation; ability to fail and to learn; social as well as technical innovation

100 WHAT WORKS: EXPERIMENTATION Making: bringing together new alignments of social interests, urban infrastructures, technologies Maintaining: sustaining innovation over time and ensuring that it is able to reconfigure the networks of which it is a part Living: through everyday norms and practices of professional organisations and public Proyecto ViDA, Monterrey

101 EXPERIMENTS FOR TRANSFORMATION? Curiosities to be admired, extracted, replicated Disturbance that reorders socio-technical configurations

102 FOSTER TRANSNATIONAL ACTION

103 CLIMATE COMPLEX?

104 WHAT WORKS: TRANSNATIONAL LEARNING Transnational learning critical to urban responses Focused on best practice; often on the transfer of models, technologies and instruments But is this the best form of learning? Sharing political and social learning Can mutually reinforcing bundle be transferred? Building capacity to learn transnationally How do we share mistakes?

105 BRAVE THE CHALLENGES

106 FIND YOUR ELEPHANTS

107 PRIVATE LIFE? In climate changed cities, which decisions remain in the private sphere and which are part of public domain?

108 RETHINKING THE JUST CITY What is justice in climate changed cities? Who should act? Who should gain, and who should loose? How can we recognise inequality while responding to future risks?

109 WHO KNOWS WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF THEY TAKE OVER?

110 Professor Harriet Bulkeley Department of Geography, Durham University Visiting Professor and King Carl XVI Gustafs 17th Professor of Environmental Science Department of Political Science, Lund University Thank You

111 Klimateffekter i omvärlden: Hur påverkas Sverige? Stockholms stads Stadsmiljöråd Henrik Carlsen, SEI

112 Effekterna beror av klimatet och samhället Samhälle A Samhälle B Sam

113 Den här världen drabbas på ett annat sätt Den här världen drabbas på ett sätt

114 Effekter och möjligheter till anpassning IPCC bedömer möjligheterna till anpassning som avsevärda, men de geografiska skillnaderna är stora

115 Risker och anpassningsförmåga Europa Afrika Asien Nordamerika Väldigt hög Medel Väldigt låg +2 C +4 C

116 ... Och allt detta har betydelse för Sverige; Klimatet förändras och då ser vi: Effekter i Sverige och Effekter i andra länder som indirekt drabbar Sverige Climate change impacts can have consequences beyond the regions in which they occur (AR5 WGII, ch. 19.4)

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118 Climate change will lead to new challenges to states and will increasingly shape both conditions of security and national security policies (AR5 WGII, ch. 12) Första gången ett kapitel om Human Security inkluderas. Ett område omgärdat av stora osäkerheter. Klimatförändringar Klimatdiskussionen Naturresurser Konsekvenser för säkerhet Extremväder

119 Global trade systems transmit and mediate a variety of impacts the most prominent example of this is the global food trade system (AR5 WGII, ch. 19.4) På tio år har mängden importerat livsmedel fördubblats. Svensk export är helt beroende av svenska import. Exportandelar Export som andel av BNP, procent År Källa: Världsbanken (WDI) Hämtat: Sverige EU USA

120 One of the primary ways species adapt to climate change is by moving to more climatically suitable areas (AR5 WGII, ch ) Så kallade invasiva arter, djur eller växter som kommer utifrån kan rubba ekosystemen.

121 Finansiella flöden Sägs mycket lite om detta i rapporten. Värdet av flödet av finansiella tillgångar är idag mångfalt större än värdet av flödet av materiella tillgångar. Svenska företags utlandsinvesteringar Bl.a. svenska pensionsfonder investerar stora belopp utomlands.

122 these studies indicate that climate change will bear significant consequences for migration flows at particular times and places.. (AR5 WGII, ch ) Omdebatterad område med stora osäkerheter. Rapporten betonar positiva och negativa konsekvener. Here, we are talking about cultural extinction!

123 Väldigt få av de anpassningsstrategier som idag tas fram tar hänsyn till indirekta effekter. Det finns här anledning till att tänka nytt inte minst i ett litet, exportberoende och öppet land som Sverige.

124 Orsakerna till klimatförändringarna har länge setts som ett globalt problem, medan effekterna har ansetts vara ett lokalt problem. Det finns all anledning att anlägga mer av ett globalt perspektiv även på klimatförändringarnas effekter. Och kanske kan ett globalt perspektiv på effekter få oss att ansträngas oss mer för att begränsa klimatförändringarans orsaker. Tack!

125 Malin Parmander, Internationella enheten, SLK Stockholm och internationellt klimatarbete The Capital of Scandinavia

126 Styrdokument för internationellt klimatarbete Vision 2030 en stad i världsklass Stockholms internationella strategi - Positionering, verksamhetsutveckling, bevakning och påverkan Stadens policy om EU-politik med påverkan på Stockholm och stockholmarna miljöfrågor prioriterat The Capital of Scandinavia Sid 2

127 Städer och klimatförhandlingar Klimatförhandlingarna i FN Klimatmötet i Paris 2015 Michael Bloomberg Ban Ki Moons särskilde sändebud för städers klimatarbete Klimatmöte i NY i september 2014 Klimatförhandlingarna inom EU Klimatmålen Klimatpolitiken för lagd av kommissionen Stadens yttrande om grönboken 2013 The Capital of Scandinavia Sid 3

128 Stadens prioriterade organisationer för klimatfrågor C40 CDP Cities Covenant of Mayors Mayors Adapt Eurocities ICLEI The Capital of Scandinavia Sid 4

129 Stockholms internationella status och trender inom klimatfrågorna Tävlingar och konferenser för att bygga stadens varumärke som klimatsmart huvudstad Trender och modeord i klimatbranschen The Capital of Scandinavia Sid 5