FEDESSA Stockholm 2017 05-09 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Talare Patrik Löfvenberg Chef Värdering -Omvärld -Fastighetsmarknaden Ollie Saunders Alternative Segment Leader Europe -Self Storage ur ett Europeiskt perspektiv Linus Ericsson Chef Debt Financial Markets -Finansiering
Omvärld & Fastighetsmarknaden Patrik Löfvenberg Chef Värdering
Omvärld Positivt Prognoser för tillväxt globalt Ökad ekonomisk optimism kortsiktigt Stabiliserade råvarupriser Negativt Politisk utveckling; svårigheter adderas Handelshinder sänker tillväxten Stundande valutakrig(?) Enorma kapitalflöden söker avkastning i denna miljö!
Europa Långsam ekonomisk återhämtning Politisk turbulens Kontorsutbudet hämmas av striktare krav på finansiering Tyskland förbi Storbritannien som största transaktionsmarknad
Effekterna av Brexit nu synbara -36% -8% -8% (+7%)
Sverige Positivt Fortsatt god tillväxt Demografi och arbetslöshet Bäst i europeiska klassen Det går bra för exportindustrin Negativt Rävsax: negativ styrränta, höga bostadspriser, försiktiga konsumenter Sverige volatilt när det blåser därute (valutakurs, börs) Man borde äga fastigheter! De bästa förutsättningarna Men, svårare med bankfinansiering
Fastighetsmarknaden i Sverige Å ena sidan Låga vakanser Hyror all-time-high i CBD Rekordår för transaktioner Ökat internationellt intresse Å andra sidan Ohälsosamt låga vakanser Hyreschock att vänta
100%
Prime-hyra kontor Stockholm
Miljarder SEK Transaktionsvolym Transaktionsvolymen för 2016 ökade med 39 procent jämfört med 2015 250 250 200 209 200 150 131 129 151 150 150 100 99 103 95 88 87 89 100 78 50 39 50 48 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Inhemsk 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cross-border 2014 2015 2016 0 2015 Q4 2016 Q4
Var kommer det internationella kapitalet ifrån? Globalt och Norskt kapital fortsätter dominera på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden 5% Nederländerna 3% U.S. 3% Danmark 6% Finland 33% Globalt 9% UK 11% Tyskland Källa: JLL 13% Schweiz 17% Norge
Prime yield kontorsfastigheter per storstad (10-års period) 6.50% 6,50% 6.00% 6,00% 5.50% 5,50% 5.00% 5,00% 4.50% 4,50% 4.00% 4,00% 3.50% 3,50% 3.00% 3,00% K4-16 K2-16 K4-15 K2-15 K4-14 K2-14 K4-13 K2-13 K4-12 K2-12 K4-11 K2-11 K4-10 K2-10 K4-09 K2-09 K4-08 K2-08 K4-07 K2-07 K4-06 Stockholm CBD Göteborg CBD Malmö CBD Källa: JLL
Spaning framåt TINA alltjämt här Sverige håller som investeringsmarknad så länge vi har tillväxt Fortsatt hyrestillväxt i Storstäderna Fler restriktioner i privatbostadsmarknaden? Mätbar inflation och därmed räntehöjningar skymtar i horisonten Nya skatteregler
Self Storage industry overview Ollie Saunders Alternatives Leader JLL Europe
Alternative Transactions Europe 2017 There have been nearly 500 alternative class transactions across Europe in 2017 so far. Over 14bn worth of transactions. A total of 14 alternative deals in Sweden, with over 250m worth of transactions. In 2016 there were 34bn transactions across alternative assets, out of around 200bn total sales volume (17%). Source: JLL, RCA 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Alternative Transactions Europe 2017 40,000,000,000 Alternative Investment Volumes 900 Alternative European Number of Deals 35,000,000,000 800 30,000,000,000 700 25,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 600 500 400 300 200 5,000,000,000 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Self Storage Europe 2017 There is now 7.8 million sq m of self storage in Europe. Up 314,500 sq m from 2015. This represents an average of 0.016 sq, per capita across Europe. Sweden has 0.037 sq m per capita. Higher than the European average but still some way behind The Netherlands and The UK. There were around 500m of transactions in 2016, up by 25% from 2015. Source: JLL, FEDESSA & RCA 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Urbanisation 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Urbanisation 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Macro Economic Overview 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0.00 Net Monthly Disposable Income 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Average Mortgage Interest Rates 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Macro Economic Overview 160.00 HPI 2010=100 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 Sweden United Kingdom Germany France Sweden 3rd highest HPI growth in Europe since 2010. (Behind only Iceland and Estonia). Largely driven by low interest rates. 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Self Storage Key Transactions Big Yellow acquire 3 freehold stores at > 18 multiplier April 17 Storage Giant acquire 2 sites in Telford and Leicester from The Space Place at 8 multiple Lock & Leave s 4 sites are incorporated into the portfolio of Big Yellow and their Armadillo platform 24Storage acquired 10 stores and 2 satellite stores between November 2015 and February 2016 Storage Mart acquire 15 stores in UK for 115m in Oct 2016 A minority stake in EasyBox Italy was sold in Q4 2015 by Caledonia Investments City Self Storage sold their Spanish portfolio of 8 stores to Bluespace in Q3 2015 City Self Storage sold their Nordic portfolio to OK Minilager in Q3 2016 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Themes in 2017 New business models and building sizes Technology : customer experience and cost base Changing capital structures Metro Self Storage Automation Global Capital Flows Consolidation and the problem of scale Pioneering capital and local dominance Debt Markets Mixed Use Consolidation 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Finansieringsmarknaden Linus Ericsson Chef Debt Financial Advisory
The Big Picture Wall of Money Bank Regulation RESEARCH Low Analysis Interest Reports Rate in all asset Environme classes nt Strong Demand to Invest in Real Estate Strong Banks in the Nordics Cheap Valuation Money of properties Not for & property Everyone portfolios 26
Market Trends Category Large and strong corporations Mid-size corporations with core properties and/or strong ownership Mid-size and smaller corporations with weaker ownership and/or real estate in secondary location Developers Trend Lower leverage, rating, diversified sources of funding, less bank dependent. In some cases to big for the Nordic banks Core clients to banks - cheap funding from banks Dependent on historical bank relations Struggling to raise funding from bank, use of mezzanine as a compliment 27
Lending terms 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% Regulation of banks Basel III Crisis in Greece, Italy and Spain regulation risk weighing 3 months 3 years 5 years 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 28
Trends in financing market Large real estate companies deleverage Bond market continue to increase in volumes Bank debt, better availability than in 2016 Competitive terms on bank debt for core clients of the banks Smaller and less strong real estate investors struggle to raise senior financing Development financing less interesting to the banks 29
Tack!